Buy in the Bust?

"Mr. Sternlicht hopes to foreclose on many of Corus’s errant borrowers, restyle their buildings and sell units for a significant profit once the real estate market recovers. He says he and his investors can afford to wait until then because the F.D.I.C. has provided them with $1.4 billion in zero-coupon financing and an additional $1 billion in low-cost loans that can be used to complete unfinished projects."

See full article in NY Times: "Barry Sternlicht, the Real Estate Bargain Hunter"

Offsite Letting Agents

In a prior post, I warned against dealing with unlicensed or unusual offsite letting agents for holiday rentals. Recently, Accommodation One on the Gold Coast closed down -- leaving landlords and guests out of pocket. So guests of both Tailly (A1) and Accommodation 1 have recently lost their holiday bookings as well as their prepayments. Booking sites such as RoamFree and eBay should take some responsibility for dealing with these operators and helping them market their accommodation. ebay has set up a compensation fund for guests, but landlords miss out (and now have to find new tenants in competition with all of Accommodation One's other landlords, in a slow winter market.)

Recent Sales

• MacArthur Chambers - 2 beds, 2 bath, Apt 609, 229 Queen Street, sold for $790,000 and now listed for rent at $730 per week furnished.
• Aurora Towers - 2 beds, 1 bath, Apt 365, 420 Queen Street, sold for $490,500
• River Park Central, 2 bed, 2 bath, Apt 1102, 120 Mary Street, sold for $420,000

Property Investor Information

Two sites with useful information for property investors:

• negativegearedinvestmentproperty.com.au
• My Tax Zone

Devine Hamilton

The Australian Financial Review included an advertisement last week stating that Devine had received construction finance for Hamilton Harbour.

Devine has also started to market a new building on the same site, Riverside Hamilton.

Vue Apartments

The Vue Apartment complex on Coronation Drive has been impacted by its bad location and road construction activity. There is construction of the Hale Street link and GoBetween Bridge nearby, and the complex is located on the corner of a busy road and a highway. It was developed by FKP, who is now pushing a new development at Milton called The Milton. Example listings in Vue:

• Apt 1705, 2 bed with roof top terrace listed at $750,000 being sold by the original developer FKP
• Apt 3102, 2 bed, renting at $460, listed at $430,000 (sold for $350,000 in 2006)
• Apt 2303, 2 bed, 5th floor, listed at $470,000 (purchased off the plan for $440,000 in 2004)

Apt 2409 sold off-the-plan by FKP in 2006 for $535,000 and was resold in February 2009 for $445,000.

Apt 2001 sold off-the-plan for $445,000 and resold for $400,000 in October 2009.

Apt 2008 sold off-the-plan for more than $504,000 and resold in Sept 2009 for $479,000

Ray White Auction Results

Last Sunday, Ray White had a large scale auction at a Valley hotel, called an Urban Living Auction. There were a number of unique and prestige apartments and houses offered for sale. The results for the sellers were not good. More than 50 propeties were listed for auction, with only 17 selling on auction day (at the auction or shortly after).

"Ray White South Brisbane principal Dean Yesberg said 17 out of 54 properties sold on the day. “We had a large number of buyers and a positive response but the number of sales was down on previous years,” Mr Yesberg said. “Certainly the message we got out of the day is that owners need to bring their expectations back into line with the marketplace and what buyers are prepared to pay. People still want to buy but recent interest rate rises and current uncertainty in the world economy is starting to make people nervous. “It was a successful day but it was a tough day at the office.” Despite the lower than average number of sales on the day, Mr Yesberg expected more properties to be sold over the next week.

Press Release from Ray White

Some good apartments that did not sell include

• Quay West Sub Penthouse Apartment 2403
• Quay West Apartment 2006
• Admiralty Towers Apartment 123

Skyline

My favourite floorplan in Skyline (30 Macrossan Street) is the G2 floorplan. It is a 3 bed apartment, and most have 2 carparks. There is a big difference in views from lower floors (which have a good city street view towards the Marriott Hotel, and some river glimpses between Admiralty Quays and Admiralty One) and the higher floors, that have a river view over Admiralty One.

The downside with this apartment is that each of the 3 bedrooms will look into The Macrossan tower and the Soliel tower, both being built right next to Skyline.

Apt 401 in Skyline, which is this floorplan on one of the highest floors, is currently listed for sale for $899,000. The listing states: "This apartment has been priced for a quick sale at only $899,000+. It was independently valued at $990,000 in September 2009."

This apartment was sold off-the-plan in September 2004 for $770,000. The current owner paid $970,000 in November 2007.

The same apartment downstair, Apt 391, sold for $875,000 in October 2009, so my guess is that the independent valuer for 401 was wrong by $100,000! Also:

Apt 291 sold for $765,000 in October 2009.

Apt 281 sold for $755,000 in March 2009.

Apt 141 sold for $740,000 in February 2010.

Apt 91 sold for $707,500 in November 2009.

The developer has a number of this type of apartment still on his books, it seems.

Lateline Story on Building Approvals

See Lateline

Recent Apartment Sales in Brisbane City

Casino Towers (151 George Street)

• Apt 1205, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - sold for $350,000
• Apt 1902, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car, river views - sold for $660,000
• Apt 3205, 2 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - sold for $520,000

The Gardens (204 Alice Street)

• 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - 7th floor, sold for $475,000
• 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - sold for $345,000

RiverCity (79 Albert Street)

• Apt 1903, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - sold for $460,000

Charlotte Towers (128 Charlotte Street)

• Apt 2809, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car passed in at auction - auctioneer's bid of $395,000

Edenview at Kelvin Grove

Edenview Apartments at Kelvin Grove are currently being marketed by a number of agents. Due for completion in mid-2011, this complex includes 15 one bed apartments (all sold), 40 two bed apartments (about 1o sold), and 7 three bed apartments (1 sold).

The prices for the 2 bed apartments range from $519,000 to $605,000. The 3 bed apartments start at $749,000.

As an example, apartment 126 is located on level 6, with street views. It has 2 beds, 2 baths and 1 car park. It is 78 sqm internal and 18 sqm on the balcony, for a total area of 94 sqm. It is listed at $579,000, which is about $6,150 sqm. The lounge/dining area is 4m x 6.3m, which is a good size. The bedrooms are 3m x 3.2m, a little tight. The second bedroom has a window onto the apartment hallway, which I don't usually like.

The complex has a pool, and the apartments have split system deducted air conditioning.

The Studio, St Lucia

The Studio student apartment complex, "sold out" in less than a week just recently. About one third of the apartments were sold, with the remainder being kept by the developer, Aspect Property Group. The complex is located within the University of Queensland, and will be complete about July 2010.

Aspect is also in the planning stages of an apartment complex at the beginning of Fred Schonell Drive, to be called Linear.

Ferry Road, West End

On Wednesday, 5 May 2010, the Australian Financial Review had an advertisement of page 7 for 51 Ferry Road, West End. Jones Lang LaSalle is marketing the property for sale, as a 6,381 sqm riverfront site, with major development potential. Expressions of interest closing 3 June.

This would be a worry for purchasers in Waters Edge, because this is the neighbouring site, and many of the apartments look directly into this site. It may also impact the cheap apartments built on Ferry Road.

Riverbend Indooroopilly

Riverbend Towers in Indooroopilly are back on the market. They were offered for sale about 2 years ago, but then the developer decided not to proceed with selling any. Now some are on the market again. The building has 2 and 3 bedroom apartments, and they are a good size. Many have river views. Some road noise. Three bedrooms listed from $710,000

Real Estate Marketing Videos

I like the fact that some agents use YouTube videos to market their properties. Here are some examples:

Quay West, Alice Street, 2 bedrooms

Ciana, 2 bedrooms

Ciana, 2 bedroom listed at $530,000:

High Density Liveability Guide

A QUT academic has published a high density liveability guide.

See www.highdensityliveability.org.au

Alderley Square Update

"Alderley Square is a village-style, mixed-use community inspired development set to reinvigorate the heart of one of Brisbane's most established suburbs. It combines the finest of residential apartment living, a thriving retail centre and a bustling commercial precinct.

The 241 residential apartments comprise a mixture of studio, 1, 2 and 3 bedroom residences over two towers and a terrace homes complex.

Both owner-occupiers and investors alike will appreciate the open plan designed apartments with generous sized balconies to take advantage of the prevailing breezes. Breathtaking views to the CBD, North-East and over the mountain will significantly enhance the 'Queensland lifestyle' feel of Alderley Square."

103 Mary Street

A proposed new apartment at 103 Mary Street, between the Vision hole and River City. It will impact the views of River City and 212 Margaret Street.

Beware of unlicensed offsite operators

The results of the recent Circle on Cavill lawsuit is a warning both to renters and apartment owners who use unlicensed offsite operators.

Tailly leased about 40 apartments in Circle on Cavill from owners, on a long term basis, for example, on one year leases. He then advertised the apartments for rent on the Internet on a short term basis. The Federal Court found that his websites were illegal, and shut them down. Tailly then went into bankruptcy. The apartment owners were not paid rent. The renters and holidaymakers lost their money and had no booking -- Tailly collected the money upfront at the time of booking, and then spent the money. Tailly was not a licensed real estate agent or travel agent -- just a tenant illegally subletting his apartments.

So if you are an apartment owner, make sure that you are using a licensed real estate agent and that you prohibit your tenant from subletting. (In this case, many of the apartment owners used real estate agents that expressly allowed Tailly to sublet!) If you are a renter or holidaymaker, it is best to deal directly with the property or use a reputable website such as Wotif.

If you are getting a too-good-a-deal from eBay, Stayz or a website that is not operated by a real estate agent or travel agent, then watch out! Not all websites are legitimate.

Another example is Paul Whitehead and his company, WorldTourism. Take care when booking with WorldTourism, to make sure you understand who you are booking with. See story on A Current Affair, and these newspaper stories.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/09/2868246.htm

http://www.mygc.com.au/article/news/local-newsroom/28374-schoolies-ban-contested-in-court.php

Oaks Fined for Car Park Leasing

A newspaper reports that the Council fined Oaks $25,000 for renting our carparks to non residents, in breach of development conditions.

"BRISBANE: One of the largest building management agencies in the CBD has been fined $15,000 for illegally leasing out car parks to inner-city workers.

Brisbane City Council has fined The Oaks Group for unlawfully leasing residential carparks to commuters after an investigation which City News understands lasted several months.

According to its website, The Oaks Group arranges short-term bookings for eight unit blocks in the CBD. Car parking spaces meant for long-term residents have instead been leased to inner-city workers for up to $5000 a year. Councillor David Hinchliffe (Central) welcomed the penalty and said he believed the practice was widespread and was “potentially just the tip of the iceberg”.

He said he believed senior managers in both the private and public sectors had paid for carparks made available in contravention of the Council’s planning approvals. “If you’re operating a commercial carpark, then you need to be zoned and approved for a commercial carpark,” he said. “One carparking space can generate easily around $5000 a year in revenue for the company, 200 car spaces are worth $1 million in revenue.

“My understanding is that apartments are being rented out without carparks so that the company can lease out the carparks separately to commuters, encouraging more people to drive to work and park and adding to congestion.”

Brisbane City Council failed to answer several questions about the practice before City News’ deadline. When contacted for comment, an Oaks spokeswoman replied: “We are not at liberty to respond to that matter.”

M on Mary

M on Mary advertises itself as a hotel. It is not -- it is a poorly designed apartment building with a large number of 1 bedroom apartments, and some 3 bed apartments.

Interestingly, this article says that they only do 28 days as the minimum stay. However, Wotif will allow me to book a 2 day stay. How can they advertise this low grade apartment building as a hotel?

Here is a review from TripAdvisor:

i have been living here for about a year as i fly in and out of the country all the time this is the worst hotel i have ever stayed in nothing works and no one cares i have asked over the last year at least twenty times for my air con,tv reception,my shower,and my intercom to be fixed as i pay 500 dollars a week in rent to be told by the manager who is a real piece of work no we won't fix anything because that costs money,well so does the rent pal i have had clients stay here who have been shocked with the service and have commented that its like a rerun from faulty towers maybe they should rename the place shocking service terrible place to stay go somewhere else

Bad Onsite Agent

Office of Fair Trading - Minister's Statement:

10 year ban for real estate employee

An investigation by the Office of Fair Trading has resulted in a Kangaroo Point-based resident letting agent and his company being banned from holding licences under the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 for ten years after ripping off unit owners.

Minister for Fair Trading Peter Lawlor said Leigh Gregory Craig, who was also fined $2500, was found guilty by the Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal of failing to follow his clients’ instructions and producing false invoices. His company Brass Properties No 1 Pty Ltd was also banned for 10 years and fined $3,000.

“Mr Craig first came to the attention of Fair Trading officers after they received a complaint from a unit owner who was falsely charged a $132 fee for the retrieval of a set of car keys accidentally dropped down a lift shaft,” Mr Lawlor said. “Following an investigation, Mr Craig was also found to have advertised Bridgeport Apartments for short-term letting which flies in the face of body corporate by-laws which impose a minimum period of six months.

“He deliberately misled unit owners by failing to disclose the higher than usual fees he was charging renters, which at times was double the normal amount. This additional income was not passed on to the unit owners. This type of behaviour has no place in Queensland’s real estate industry. Queenslanders deserve to know they are dealing with reputable and licensed agents,” he said.

"This decision is a clear reminder to the real estate industry to act responsibly. If an agent chooses to breach the law by deceiving their customers, they risk the loss of their licence, reputation and livelihood. The legislation is there to protect businesses and clients, and must be complied with. Licensees caught doing the wrong thing will be penalised."

Talking Up the Top End

"Publicly listed property company Mirvac has also started the decade on a positive note, selling $30 million worth of $1 million-plus apartments around Queensland in the first three months.

Mr Johnston said the exclusive riverfront development at Tennyson Reach had exceeded everyone’s expectations in the current market. "The fact it’s sold so well in a market affected by the GFC is testament to the quality of the product and the prime location," he said.

The Tennyson Reach sales ranged up to $2.845 million for luxury apartments on the riverfront, located close to the new Tennyson Tennis Centre. Mr Johnson said that apart from families with old money, 2010 had seen the return of the investor – and they’re not all mum and dad investors with $600,000 to spend on a three-bed, one-bath inner-city renter.

An increasing number of multi-million dollar sales have been to investors, such as one riverfront apartment Mr Johnston sold for nearly $3 million last month. The investor is planning on renting the apartment out.

Ms Havig said foreign investors and expats were also present in the prestige market.
"They feel that the market is still going to rise considerably and want to get in before it does," she said."

See Brisbane Times for full story.

Tax Reform and Property

The Henry Tax Review was released at 2.30pm today. It was expected to have an impact on property investment, but it appears that the impact will be minimal in the short term. See Summary of Report and Mr Swan's response: www.futuretax.gov.au

From the Report:

• Over a long transition period, a land tax should be introduced on all land on a more efficient and uniform basis linked to unit land values, removing disincentives for institutional investment in rental property and integrated over time with property rate assessments.
• Over a similar period, transfer taxes on property should be reduced, and ultimately removed, with revenues replaced by efficient taxes, preferably annual land tax.
• Subject to transitional provisions, and following action to improve the current shortfall in housing supply, a more neutral personal income tax treatment of private residential rental investment should be introduced, with less volatile market effects, through a 40 per cent discount on all net residential rental income and losses, and capital gains.

The structure of land taxes could be improved by broadening the land tax base to eventually include all land. Land tax rates should be based on the value of a given property, so that the tax does not discriminate between different owners or uses of land. A tax-free threshold based on the per-square-metre value of the land could be set such that there would be no tax liability on most agricultural and other low-value land. Higher-value land could be taxed at differentiated rates based on the per-square-metre value of the land.

Stamp duties on conveyances are inconsistent with the needs of a modern tax system. While a significant source of State tax revenue, they are volatile and highly inefficient and should be replaced with a more efficient means of raising revenue.

Conveyance stamp duty is highly inefficient and inequitable. It discourages transactions of commercial and residential property and, through this, its allocation to its most valuable use. Conveyance stamp duty can also discourage people from changing their place of residence as their personal circumstances change or discourage people from making lifestyle changes that involve a change in residence. It is also inequitable, as people who need to move more frequently bear more tax, irrespective of their income or wealth.

Reforming land tax and conveyance stamp duty arrangements, along with the proposed changes to the taxation of rental housing and Rent Assistance, will go some way toward improving housing affordability. However, to a significant extent housing affordability is a supply issue (see Box 6.1).

Media Reports:

"Likewise the second part of the Henry Review’s two “key directions for efficient land and resource taxation”. The first part is the idea of a 40 per cent resource rent tax, which was first leaked in January. The response to the leak was obviously sufficiently mixed for the thing to become the centrepiece of Mr Swan’s tax reform.

The second part – and given equal weight in the review – is a national land tax of 1 per cent applying to all land regardless of use. Absolutely no mention of that in either leaks or today’s statement.

The Henry Review also recommends a 40 per cent discount to individuals for net interest income, residential rent, capital gains and interest related to listed shares. Also leaked, but rejected."

Business Spectator

The review proposes a 40 per cent discount on all income from savings, as well as on all residential rental income and losses, and capital gains.

These recommendations were widely flagged prior to today's announcement, with critics saying the current system doesn't give enough incentives for workers to put money in savings accounts.

Currently, interest earned on all savings accounts and term deposits is taxed at a worker's top marginal rate.

It is far less generous than the tax treatment of other investments such as shares and property, which the review says encourages investors to take on too much debt.

"The tax advantages from borrowing to invest in a rental property, also relevant for shares, leads to investors taking on too much debt and distorts the rental property market," the review says.

News Corp

Flood Maps

It is interesting to look at flood maps of Brisbane. You can see, for example, that SL8 is in a flood zone. Newstead River Park is an overland flow zone.

Better buying a recent apartment, than off-plan?

"“There are so many disasters out there,” said Lawrence Rich, a vice president of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “Every day you hear of another new building that’s in trouble, and people don’t want a building where there might be problems and they won’t enjoy living there while it all gets worked out.”"

Full Article

March 2010 Index Data

The RP Data – Rismark March Hedonic Home Value Index results released yesterday reveals that home values in Australia’s capital cities rose by 1.4 per cent in March (and +1.1 per cent on a “seasonally adjusted” basis) following on from similarly strong 1.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent growth rates across Australia in the months of January and February, respectively. In the 12 months to end March, Australian capital city home values have increased by 12.5 per cent.

Rpdata.com Director of Research, Tim Lawless, stated “We expect capital growth rates to cool in 2010 as the cost of mortgage finance is normalised by the RBA. Over the longer-term home values should be expected to track disposable incomes.”

Press Release

Brisbane values up 2.4% (median price: $439,000)

Brisbane apartments: Capital Growth to February 2010

Month: -0.9%

Quarter: 0.8%

Year to date: 1.9%

Year on year: 7.6%

Brisbane apartments: Capital Growth to March 2010

Month: 1.8%

Quarter: 3.7%

Year to date: 3.7%

Year on year: 9.1%

Medium over quarter = $375,000

Brisbane houses: Capital Growth to February 2010

Month: 0.4%

Quarter: 1.1%

Year to date: 2.0%

Year on year: 7.2%

Brisbane houses: Capital Growth to March 2010

Month: 0.2%

Quarter: 2.1%

Year to date: 2.1%

Year on year: 6.2%

Full details

Annual Rate of Return - Felix and Admiralty Two

Lot	P-Price	P-Date	Sell Price	Sell Date	A RoR
Admiralty Two
20	$445,000	13/09/04	$725,000	11/05/09	11.03%
25	$369,000	24/02/94	$850,000	11/02/10	5.36%
47	$700,000	29/08/05	$945,000	1/09/09	7.77%
81	$720,000	23/11/07	$725,000	27/03/09	0.51%
94	$615,000	19/12/06	$730,000	7/05/09	7.45%
97	$340,000	20/02/98	$780,000	12/06/09	7.61%
106	$490,000	15/11/04	$750,000	24/06/09	9.67%
107	$485,000	1/02/02	$990,000	15/08/09	9.92%
124	$615,000	13/04/07	$750,000	19/10/09	8.20%
137	$432,000	22/03/97	$815,000	15/07/09	5.28%
Felix
63	$415,000	20/12/05	$445,000	24/09/09	1.87%
82	$305,000	10/08/01	$480,000	30/12/09	5.55%
137	$355,000	4/06/04	$494,000	14/12/09	6.16%
161	$214,900	16/05/03	$325,000	20/11/09	6.55%
195	$280,000	13/08/01	$428,000	7/09/09	5.40%
256	$522,000	6/08/08	$530,000	3/12/09	1.15%
258	$248,950	30/08/01	$351,000	23/09/09	4.35%
291	$264,450	28/04/04	$358,000	24/02/10	5.33%
302	$746,000	13/09/01	$500,000	23/12/09	-4.72%
371	$630,000	4/08/05	$670,000	17/02/10	1.36%

SouthPoint at South Bank

"A premium central city location opposite the CBD Southbank is Brisbanes premier recreation and dining precinct, Southpoint is the last available site in Southbank and will provide a total of 86,433 square metres of GFA in a mixed use development of exceptional design standard.

Drawing on the success of the Emporium mixed use development by the same group, Southpoint will take the recipe further because of its exceptional location and the manner in which it will integrate into the area’s rail and bus interchange. This will not only provide amenity and market value for Southpoint’s residents and business tenants but will also stimulate demand for retail because of the high volume of commuter traffic.

Consisting primarily of three towers providing office, residential and genuine 6 star hotel standard accommodation, all with retail below, the striking architecture of Southpoint will make it a visual and commercial landmark in Australia’s fastest growing city."

www.south-point.com.au and AJG website

Extract from Recent Matusik Email

Australian Property Monitors (APM) – a fully owned subsidiary of Fairfax Media – last month published a study which outlined what houses across Queensland (and by suburb) could be worth in three, five and ten years’ time. Needless to say, the projected growth trajectory is almost exponential, rising on average by 11% per annum across Queensland over the next decade. Prices rose by 11.7% each year, across Brisbane for example, during the noughties. Hopefully, APM did more work than just assume that the past will be repeated. But one wonders.

A check on 25 randomly selected Queensland suburbs finds a pretty consistent projected growth pattern, with values expected to rise by 30% in the next three years, then by just 10% between year four and five and then by a whopping 115% between the sixth and tenth year. By 2020, just short of 600 Queensland suburbs are expected to enjoy a median price over $1 million; and 54 areas could be, on average, priced over $2 million. The median Brisbane house price, today, is around $440,000.

What is driving the growth in five years’ time? Why does the growth rate plummet in year four? Surely there is something more than just “demand exceeding supply and strong economic growth, particularly in resources,” as quoted in the accompanying media commentary. Please APM, explain to us your methodology, as it is absent from the published forecasts.

Also puzzling is why Hamilton’s house values are expected to drop 20% over the next three years, whilst neighbouring Ascot’s prices are forecast to rise by 7% over the same period. And why just 7% – isn’t Ascot (and Hamilton for that matter) in a prime spot, with heaps of infrastructure support? Similarly, South Brisbane’s values are to drop by 8% by 2012, but West End’s values will rise by a staggering 33% or $236,000. Ditto for Surfers Paradise, down 36% in three years, versus a projected 20% jump for adjacent Broadbeach. I could go on and on. Please, APM, explain these anomalies as well.

The Gold Coast market, and in particular Surfers Paradise, has been getting a caning of late. According to the latest Queensland government valuations issued in March, ocean-front land has fallen by 30% on the coast, with residential values down 18% in Surfers Paradise since 2007, when land was last valued on the Gold Coast. According to a recent study by the REIQ, median dwelling prices in Surfers Paradise dropped by 30% during 2009.

Now there is no question that the Gold Coast is doing it tougher than the rest, with our data – which is based on cleaned up resales – showing that apartment values fell 9% during 2008 and a further 4% last year. But ocean-front apartment values – in Surfers Paradise at least – and again based on individual resale analysis, actually rose last year. Up by 8.9%!

There are two messages here. Firstly, in order to get a true handle on the residential market it pays dividends to narrow down the sample set and investigate individual resales. Sweeping statements – and especially based on suburb, or worse still, postcode analysis – are nearly always incorrect.

The second message comes in the form of a question. Why does the media (and too many punters, as well) accept these forecasts as if they are gospel? I understand why the Fairfax Media might, but the Murdoch Press? Maybe digging around a bit is too much work for journos these days. A recent study commissioned by crikey.com suggests this is the case, with nearly 55% of the stories published across ten major Australian newspapers late last year being driven by media releases or public relations firms.

So what do I think prices will do over the next decade? In short, my answer is…not as much as they did over the last ten years.

Dwellings are overpriced but not (yet, anyway) oversupplied. The current “boom” is likely to run out of puff within the next twelve months, on the back of rising interest rates and declining affordability. We could “crash and burn” like the US recently did or go through a long, drawn-out adjustment, as happened in the 1990s. The latter means that residential values will be flat until affordability is rebuilt by a combination of gradual increases in household incomes and cyclical declines in interest rates. Given this scenario, growth over 5% per annum would be a strong result.

It’s back to the future, if you ask me.

Source: www.matusik.com.au

Flat Market in Brisbane

In talking with people in the real estate industry in Brisbane recently, it seems to me that the market is relatively flat. At some open homes for houses in the $600,ooo price range, only 1 family will turn up for an inspection. Off the plan sales for apartments are, for the most part, slow. Prices are relatively stable for apartments. It is not a booming market at present. On the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, the market is very dead.

There are pending risks that may dramatically impact investment apartments in Queensland:

• higher interest rates
• risk of lower numbers of overseas students and tourists visiting Australia (including due to the higher Aussie Dollar)
• The review of the Australian Tax System, due within weeks, which will likely impact the treatment of capital gains for real estate, and probably recommend the removal of negatively gearing of losses from investment properties to offset income tax from income earned from other sources
• difficulties in obtaining investment loans, and the banks requiring a higher deposit for investment property loans
• increased school fees, which impacts the ability of many families wanting to invest in property
• increased body corporate fees and rates, making returns less
• poor performing vacation rentals and low vacation rental returns, often less than 2% net returns

Mirvac's Park

The public release of Mirvac's Park is taking place today -- the same day that 3 apartments at Mirvac's Tennyson Reach are being auctioned due to failure of the buyers to purchase -- and where the off-the-plan contract price is now above market price.

In my opinion, Park is overpriced:

"One, two, three bedroom apartments plus Pavilions are available for purchase now off the plan. Featuring classic toned interior colour schemes with functional spaces, clever storage and useable outdoor areas, each tower has a selection of floor plan styles to choose from.

One bedroom apartments from $495,000

Two bedroom apartments from $675,000

Three bedroom apartments from $975,000

Pavilions from $1.6 million"

See this post for a comparison of these prices with current market pricing. Before buying in Park, I would go to the auction of a 2 bed apartment in Mirvac's Quay West -- which is over 125sqm in size, park and river views, a better location, plus a pool (which Park does not have).

Talking Up A Dead Market on the Gold Coast

Real estate agents are always the optimists. Take this story in the April 3, 2010 Courier Mail (a newspaper that relies on real estate agent advertisements for its profits, so you will only read positive stories in the Courier Mail about real estate). The story is about the Gold Coast off-the-plan apartment market, and is titled "New apartments to dry up". In the story, Julian Sutherland, a director of Ray White Surfers Paradise, says "History will show that buyers who put their foot on product at today's prices will benefit significantly when the supply constraints diminish over the next year or two."

Compare this with a report from March 31, 2010 from Herron Todd White, who are independent registered valuers. In response to the indicator: "Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value", HTW responds for the Gold Coast apartment market: "Very Frequently". See page 51 of the report.

So, if buying a new apartment on the Gold Coast off-the-plan or recently finished, take care with what real estate agents tell you, because despite Julian Sutherland's positive views, the real story may be otherwise. And Julian earns his commission from selling off-the-plan apartments on behalf of developers, so he is not in any way independent.

HTW also reminds us:

"Like anything in the current economy, when investing in a holiday home, you need to take a softly, softly approach. You need to take your time, look at the fundamentals and make sure that they all add up. With the level of choice out there, it is even more important to select well, remembering profit is most often built into the purchase rather than the future sale."

Brisbane Up Only Slightly

Brisbane housing prices up 0.4% in February quarter.

See RP Data information and Joye's blog

Brisbane Prices

"It's not only the sun that is expected to shine on Queensland this year; property prices are tipped to really begin moving.

The economist from Australian Property Monitors, Matthew Bell, a Fairfax Media-owned company, says Brisbane (and Queensland in general) will be one of the better performers of 2010, along with Perth."

See Domain

Apartments for Sale in Brisbane

I looked at RealEstate.com.au to see what good apartments are for sale at present. These are quality apartments, in my view, and are relatively new. This is a good comparison when looking at off-the-plan developments and other apartments. All include car parking.

Two bedrooms

• Saville Southbank - 9th floor, river and city views, 127 sqm in total, listed at $780,000
• Quay West, 10th floor, 126 sqm, park views, just listed in the $700s with Colliers
• Parksland Sherwood, top floor, park and city views, one year old, includes separate study that could be used as third bedroom. 110 sqm in total, listed at $530,000
• Fresh Toowong, one year old, two pools, 134 sqm, listed at $555,000
• Riva Indooroopilly, river views, but only one bathroom, 90 sqm, listed at $535,000
• Ciana Indooroopilly, includes separate study that could be used as third bedroom, huge balcony, over 150sqm, listed at $649,000

Larger One bedroom in buildings about 10 years old

• Admiralty One, direct riverfront, level 12, 77 sqm listed at $600,000
• Admiralty One, side river views, listed at $449,000 or $485,000
• Quay West, 10th floor, river and park views, over 70 sqm, listed at $460,000

Promised Infrastructure

I often visit off-the-plan sales offices for apartment projects, and I am often told about planned infrastructure. A new pedestrian bridge, or a new CityCat ferry stop, or a new bus route, or a new supermarket planned for a neighbouring or nearby site, or restaurants about to open. I go back a number of years later, and the planned infrastructure is still not there.

Sales agents often talk about stuff that will improve the area but that never actually eventuates. So be careful about such "promises". It is best to look at what the area is like now, because this is how the area may look for some time to come. Do not pay extra for future benefits that may never arrive. If they do arrive, then you will get some capital appreciation.

I walked around West End last night. A Saturday night. Boundary Street was alive and hoping. South Bank was busy and bustling. Montague Road was dead. It was dark and no people were around. Nothing was open. It is still a scary semi-industrial area. So be careful if buying into Flow, or Waters Edge, or Koko or Riverpoint. There is a lack of public transport, and it is a very isolated area. I would not walk home from the city at night to Flow or Riverpoint. The promises made by sales agents to me a number of years ago (new park, CityCat terminal, new coffee shops and restaurants opening, a new supermarket on Montague Road, a new bus route with regular buses for all the new residents) just did not eventuate. Still many light industrial uses and sheds for spray painters.

Wave or Montague West End

Some more details about Wave West End which may have been renamed Montague.

See Development website. It is located behind Stockland's Koko.

Keen Walk

Keen got his prediction wrong, and is now about to walk. See keenwalk.com.au and blog

See also Chris Joye

Mosaic The Valley

When I look earlier this week, Mosaic The Valley had not yet received Development Approval from the Council. Also, from what the agents are saying, they do not yet have enough pre-sales required to lock in finance to start building. It will be interesting to see if and when they start building Mosaic.

Mirvac's Waterfront - New "Park" release

Mirvac has started its pre-release sales campaign for the Park building at its Waterfront development in Newstead. From the materials I have seen, it will have about 100 apartments. The building is divided into two sections, Park North and Park South. There is a mix of 2 and 3 bed apartments, plus some 1 bedrooms at the back of the buildings. It appears that this building has no gym or pool.

The floorplans are very Mirvac. For example, the smallest 2 bedroom apartment has a floorplan similar to the two bedroom apartments in Mirvac's Arbour on Grey at Southbank. The difference is size. The Park two bedroom is 81 sqm internal with a 14 sqm balcony, for a total of 95sqm. The similar Arbour on Grey apartment is 106 sqm in total.

That being said, there are some larger two bedrooms, and all seem to be well designed. There are floor-thu apartments, with the living at the front and bedrooms at the rear. The two bedroom apartments range in size from 95sqm total, to 108sqm, to 112sqm, to 116 sqm.

In some of the 2 bedroom apartments, the living room is very small, and is only 3.5m wide, which in my view is too tight. Most of the apartments have the laundry in a cupboard, and have a galley kitchen along the dining room wall (and no island bench).

The building is way back from the river, on a park to be constructed -- the site was an old industrial site, and had contamination problems that have been cleaned up.

Mirvac plans about 7 other buildings for this site, so there will always be more apartments to compete with. Also, FKP and others are building on Newstead River Park site.That being said, it is generally a good location. See maps here and here and here.

What concerns me is price. An equivalent Mirvac two bed apartment, overlooking Southbank Parklands or the Brisbane Botanical Gardens would sell in the price range $650K to $800K, with sizes from 106 sqm to 132 sqm, and river views. It appears that these new Park apartments, although smaller and newer, will sell for $100,000s more than the current price for a quality Mirvac apartment in Brisbane.

And remember that Mirvac had over 15 apartments fail to settle at Tennyson, and they were resold about 20% less than the original sales price.