Showing posts with label HTW. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HTW. Show all posts

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Grim View of Brisbane Apartment Market

Independent property valuer HTW paints a very depressing view of the apartment market in Brisbane.  HTW says that it is a falling market -- prices will decrease.  Many new apartments are being sold for above market prices.  Rental demand is weak.



Saturday, February 4, 2017

Valuer says Brisbane will get worse

Independent property valuers Herron Todd White say that the Brisbane apartment market is about to enter a decline.  It looks like values will go down.  We have not had a boom in Brisbane since 2007.  Who said property prices double every ten years?  If you bought in 2007, you may still be underwater!

The report says:
"Brisbane property has been a heartbreaker over the past few years, offering so much promise, but failing to live up to the hype – and anyone hoping 2017 would prove to be “The Year of the Brissie” will probably be disappointed again.

The hoodoo continues to be employment-fuelled interstate migration and, truth be told, we can’t see anything on the economic horizon to suggest southern buyers will start heading here in droves.
That’s not to say we should be ignored - on the contrary, Brisbane is one of the country’s most forgiving capital city markets. There are very few disappointed long-term buyers in our sunshine- state’s big city, provided they stuck with the fundamentals and bought the right property in the right position at the right price. With this historic performance as a foundation, there are opportunities to get into Brisbane and hold tight that will leave you feeling very satis ed with your decision come a market cycle or two.

Herron Todd White Brisbane has always been keen on well located second hand units as a strategy for those trying to get a foot on the market. They usually offer an affordable option in a great location, and while capital gains aren’t always mind blowing, good tenant demand ensures you can continue to service the mortgage without too much stress. There is, however, a very real oversupply risk looming for investor units in our city as new stock struggles to find demand. This is having a negative flow on to our traditionally solid second-hand unit market. If you buy investor-grade unit stock in particular – new or old – please tread with caution in 2017."


Friday, September 9, 2016

Declining Apartment Market in Brisbane

The September HTW Month-in-Review report suggests that for Brisbane, it is time to selling apartments and buy houses.  I have noticed that prices for apartments being resold are soft.  An above average apartment that was sold off the plan in 2007 for $550,000 is lucky to sell today for $470,000.

See attached from HTW (click on image to enlarge)



Friday, June 3, 2016

HTW view on Brisbane apartment market

There has been a lot of talk about our inner city unit market with an oversupply situation that’s graduated from 'looming' to 'inevitable'. This sector is a huge concern. There are still heaps of projects that are yet to come online or are in the planning phase. They are also predominantly investor driven and this could be a recipe for a lot of heartache – particularly as a large percentage of buyers are interstate and international investors. Add to this the tighter restrictions on lending to foreign investors and you can see where it might all be heading. As we’ve been saying for some time – in terms of inner city units, the best per formers are, and will continue to be, those projects designed with owner-occupiers in mind.

If you’re wondering how tenant demand is tracking, we can con rm current data shows vacancy rates for houses at 2.5% and units at 3.2% (unit vacancy increased by 0.3% year-on-year). The combined  vacancy rate for all property types is 2.7%. The general rule is any result below 2% demonstrates an under supply of rentals, 2% to 3% seems balance, and over 3% represents oversupply. From the numbers above, it’s easy to recognise where the weak sector is in the market.


See June Month in Review

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Valuer's view of Brisbane property


"Firstly, interstate migration is a long way off its heady peaks in 2003. It’s flat performance isn’t a total deal breaker for our state’s rising market, but certainly if these numbers were to pick up, you’d think good things are set to follow.

Recent sales evidence would indicate there has been a levelling of prices and values over the past quarter. There’s a little more urgency amongst buyers, which has led to growth in the 12 months to June 2014. Values are up around 10% for near-city detached housing, and entry level housing within 5 kilometres of the CBD remains a market that is outperforming other sectors.

We do seem to be entering a phase of upgrading – although this is taking form in increased sale numbers, and consequently values, for vacant land and renovating existing dwellings, not to mention the downsizers (but not downgraders) into the prestige unit market. The stagnation in the market during the 2010 to mid-2013 stalled the upgrader market – due mainly to them being unable to offload their existing residence before shooting for something a bit better.

Like the stone that drops in the pond, the ripple affect is real for Brisbane’s property market. Starting with inner/near city detached housing and extending from there, how far the wave travels is dependent upon the strength of the boom.


The only standout in the supply and demand equation remains the unit market. With a significant increase in supply on the way, coupled with low interstate migration along with existing tenants taking the opportunity to buy or enter the market, we believe this sector has potential for a rising vacancy rate in the short term."


Source:  HTW November 2014 Month in Review

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Brisbane Shows Promise?

From HTW's Month in Review:

Brisbane’s revival continues and the ongoing confidence in property will be one key economic driver as this year progresses. As a capital, we have fed off the regional mining boom. Anyone with major mineral digs out in the nether reaches on the state invariably had a head office based in the big smoke. As this sector of the economy finds itself weakening, there are quite a few property participants touting construction as the saviour.

At a recent presentation in Brisbane, demographer, Bernard Salt, was pushing some big population growth for major cities around the nation in 2014, and Brisbane was firmly amongst his favourites. If we see this goodwill translate into actual gains, then the rest of the year should firm up nicely for those in property.

Friday, March 7, 2014

Rising Market

Valuer, HTW, reports that both the Brisbane and Sunshine Coast apartment markets are currently "rising markets".

See March 2014 Month in Review.


Tuesday, February 11, 2014

A valuer's view of Brisbane

From the HTW Month in Review for February 2014:

"... Brisbane is often touted as the next most likely to move after Sydney and Melbourne, and there’s no denying that some of these southern states saw a boom run on many suburban market as 2013 drew to a close.  In the field, agents are telling us that things are looking good. There have been multiple lookers at open homes and some auctions are jagging prices above vendor expectation. The pick locations are, and have always been, close to the CBD. The old story of limited supply and good quality stock plus comparatively high demand mean that as long as you’re appropriately priced, there is definitely a buyer or two out there for your property."


Monday, October 7, 2013

Brisbane property marker simmers

"Brisbane’s market continues to simmer as we look to the southern states and wonder why they are
running so hot right about now. Our Brisbane buyers and sellers are feeling a touch more confident
about the year ahead, so we may well see some strengthening in pricing, but a definite price trend
hasn’t fully emerged as yet. ...

Units can also provide a great way to crack into the inner city market and shore up your equity. Walking distance to a community hub really is a must though. Tenants and residents alike don’t want to spend too much time within the walls of their unit. A cafĂ© strip allows for a getaway from the home and a stroll in the sunshine."

Valuers HTW has an excellent monthly publication, Month in Reivew.  It is worth reading each month.   The above is from the October edition.


Saturday, August 3, 2013

Valuer's View

From the HTW Month in Review, recently published:

"Our valuers are reporting anecdotally that confidence is reasonably good around south east Queensland, but job security is the big concern. It’s hard to pay your mortgage or rent without dollars coming in the door. Some certainty in the economy would be nice with a few observers saying a post-federal election surge is on the cards. We wouldn’t be so bold as to make that prediction, but politics and instability have played a hand in making the population uneasy on a number of fronts.

While there is some confidence in our markets,buyers are uncertain where fair market value lays in plenty of cases. There has been an increase in the number of pre-purchase valuations being requested by buyers. This is a sign to some degree that buyers want to purchase rather than just tire kick or hope to jag an absolute steal.

The sector seeing the best performance is probably the trade up market. Family size homes in the $1 million to $2 million range are being keenly sought. Buyers want large blocks and sizable homes.  Location is important too. Competition is toughest within 8 kilometres of the CBD, but this should come as no surprise. This sort of real estate is generally blue-chip and will offer the best chance of capital growth in the coming years.

So our call is that sectors where fundamentals are good are the ones that will perform the best in the foreseeable future. It’s no longer fair to say every sector is a buyers’ market. Our expectation for the rest of this year is one of quiet confidence. Assuming there are no unforeseen shocks, everything is pointing towards a steady-asshe-goes time in the market with modest gains to be made for those willing to buy and wait."

Friday, June 7, 2013

HTW Valuer's Month in Review Report

HTW Property Valuers say in their recent monthly report that, for apartments, the Brisbane market is improving, the Gold Coast market is declining, and the Sunshine Coast market has bottomed out.

[Click chart to view]

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Macquarie Capital's View different to HTW's view

The AFR this week quoted Rod Cornish from Macquarie Capital.  "Mr Cornish expected prices to track sideways in Melbourne for longer, while he said Brisbane prices have not yet bottomed."

In contrast, Valuer Herron Todd White's recent report says that the Brisbane property market is at the beginning of recovery, and has passed bottom.

HTW's report also says:

"If you are a unit buyer we will flog the proverbially expired filly – second hand, good size, ready rentable units as close to the CBD as possible or with good transport links won’t hurt you. It’s exhausting to repeat this advice but they offer great value as long as there are no likely body corporate maintenance and repair surprises coming along.

For new unit buyers the value is in finding some quality mid-rise projects in good locations. The value comes in not just looking at the figure on the page but by actually gazing upon the bricks and mortar itself. Quality fittings, a reasonable living space, facilities close by and all the things that would make owner occupier want to live there as much as tenants. Don’t get too caught up in the hype – shop around! A 1- bedder in the heart of the city is still available for those in the $300,000 price point if you don’t have a car. If the luxury of a carspace is required, maybe $320,000 is all that’s needed after a good search around.

For those at the upper end of the market the joy is limited. The days of easy money are truly behind us so you need the cashflow to service the debt if you’re going to borrow. Quality property is tightly held and the number of buyers able to fork over big dollars appears limited."

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

HTW's Opinion

As the full effect of the earlier cuts are yet to be observed coupled with the unknown global risks and expectation of slightly higher unemployment, it makes for interesting times for property participants and observers coming up to the "big sleep" over the Christmas / New Year period.
Follow the link below for the December 2012 Month In Review: http://htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-in-Review-December-2012.pdf


Saturday, July 14, 2012

Brisbane Apartment property cycle improving: HTW

From HTW's month in review (July):

Brisbane Units as at June 2012:
Stage of property cycle:  Start of recovery
Rental vacancy trend: Steady
Demand for new units: Soft
Trend in new unit construction: Steady
Volume of unit sales: Steady

This is the most optimistic that HTW has been in some time.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Brisbane Apartment at Bottom?

Valuers HTW say in their recent report that the Brisbane apartment market has bottomed out.  They also say this about residential property in Brisbane:
"The reality on the ground is this – most agents are stating with certainty that there has been an improvements in the number of buyers under $500,000 with the vast majority being investors. Most agents who speak openly and honestly will tell you that this is a good sign but let’s not start popping the corks just yet. We would also say that many who have made the positive the call on the sub half million property turnaround will just as quickly remind you that over $500,000 property is still a ghost town."
HTW June 2012 Month in Review

Monday, April 30, 2012

Limited but real competition

"So how have things actually faired in the last four months? agents report patchy progress, but on balance they have been more encouraged since we hit the new year. many described their 'best months for some time' during February and March. the upshot seems to be this – vendors have reached their bottom price and buyers are now willing to meet them. most sellers who had to get out of the market come-what-may have done so. If not, they have found alternative strategies and decided to hold onto their dirt until the next upswing. Buyers who were putting in substantially discounted offers on properties are finding there is now limited but real competition. as a result if they want to secure some real estate, they do have go beyond their ridiculously low dream price and get a little dose of reality. the outcome has been more sales volume but prices remain flat. For example, sub $1m in good locations is doing just fine and if you’re a first home buyer within 10 to 15km of the CBD, then you’ll probably find there is a little more competition to secure some real estate."
HTW Month in Review

Friday, September 2, 2011

HTW Market Update

If you purchase a flooded property, you may find yourself paying 5% to 20% discount on what similar but non flooded properties are selling for in the same suburb and without a dramatic discount in rent. ...

That said, there are some suburbs that were tarnished by the flood that offer excellent value for non-flooded stock due to the overall lack of buyer confidence. For example, st Lucia has a ready source of student renters, is close to the CbD and enjoys good local services, but its riverfront areas copped a hiding in January. As a result, the dry property (and there is plenty) has also had a downturn. not too long ago, one of our valuers had a look at a two- bedroom, three-level townhouse that sold for $400,000 and will easily see $430 per week in rent. A 5.5% gross return in this location is a very nice earner indeed. ...

General market conditions across the Gold Coast are very tight. only those properties where the vendor is willing to meet the market are selling. there is generally an oversupply of similar properties listed for sale. Feedback from locals within the property industry indicate that the market may not yet have bottomed out which is concerning potential buyers. Our opinion is that we are bumping along the bottom similar to the late 1990’s and that properties will sell within a wider value range depending on the circumstances of the vendor.<
Source: HTW Report

Saturday, August 13, 2011

What Are Valuers Saying About Brisbane

A report from Herron Todd White this month, that is well worth reading. I have seen real estate agents email the positive parts of this to their mailing lists, leaving out the negatives! With that said, some extracts, but read the full report on the HTW.com.au website.

"So our broad brush call is: Over the past six to twelve months, most markets in SEQ have seen a 5% to 10% fall, or at best remained steady, depending on the sector.

The inner and near city semi prestige and prestige sectors have shown some pain. These are usually stalwart markets with little that can dampen buyer enthusiasm but there are some higher end vendors who are obviously smarting and willing to meet the market as a quickly as possible.

For example: 16 McDonald St Gordon Park – purchased Feb 2008 for $1.022M. Reported recent sale May 2011 $950,000.

It’s also worth noting that our people on the ground are reporting with regular and frightening monotony on a raft of other resales we can’t quote here. Most are showing the magic 5% to 10% fall although some are bucking the trend and dropping further.

For real hurt, look no further than the affordable investor/ first home owner market in areas such as the western corridor. This sector has taken a hit as interest rate rises put fear in the hearts of those who are borrowing on the edge. Inala and Redbank Plains are finding serious and regular falls of 20% on prices achieved twelve months to two years ago. One of our team believes we are back to the early 2007 market in some areas.

If you’re looking for something safe, your best bet right now is an inner suburb traditional cottage. Who would have thougth during the heady days of late 2007 and early 2008 you would be able to pick something up in prestige Paddington for well under $600,000 come mid 2011. This is blue chip real estate my friends, and its selling at prices not seen since early 2007.

High end units in the city have also copped a hiding. A number of resales reported in the very desirable Riparian building for example are a testament to a slow slow market. There were a few buyers who bought off the plan here and looked to have made a handsome profit on completion of this landmark building. Unfortunately for those that held on and are now desperate to sell, the bad news is that they may have lost that upside and then some. As they say, no one ever made a loss selling at a profit.

The flat line performer in the CBD (i.e. read “winner”) seems to be the well located investor end one bedders. Whilst capital growth for this stock has never been glamorous, a ready and eager supply of tenants mostly in the form of overseas students means these properties have been relatively painless in the downswing.

Mid ring property has been having its ups and downs. Family homes here had, until recently, been fairly solid but a few recent sales are now showing buyers are less enthusiastic. Finally, large scale outer suburb projects are also on the wane. Two recent examples from north lakes in Brisbane’s north include:
1 Willandra Pde - Sold in May 2010 for $575,000. now under contract but not unconditional at the time of writing for $530,000. Interestingly the owners also put in a 36 sqm Bali Hut and timber deck since their original purchase.
20 Forrestal Cct - Sold in Feb 2009 for $780k, only to be resold April 2011 for $708k. A very nice house according to our man on the scene.

I know, I know, it all reads doom and gloom and it can be too easy to blame the examples on the conservative valuers peddling bad news, but this just isn’t the case. Our city has had a pretty good run in the property game since 2001 but the soft times are well and truly upon us. While some of our valuers are reporting a trickle of first home buyers back into the market, a serious trend has not yet emerged. On the plus side, our property market is presenting some seriously good opportunities for the cashed up buyer so Brisbane is well worth a look."

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

State of the Market

Herron Todd White, a firm of independent property valuers, publishes a monthly report, called Month in Review. The most recent report includes the following information about the Queensland apartment market.

Volume of unit sales:
Brisbane: steady
Gold Coast: declining significantly
Sunshine Coast: declining

Stage of market:
Brisbane: bottom of the market
Gold Coast: declining market
Sunshine Coast: bottom of the market

Demand for new units:
Brisbane: fair
Gold Coast: very soft
Sunshine Coast: soft

Sounds like it may be a good time to buy an apartment in Brisbane, but definitely not the time to buy on the Gold Coast.

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Valuer's View

Valuers Herron Todd White's recent report says that, for the apartment market, the Brisbane market and the Sunshine Coast markets are both at the bottom of the market, whereas the Gold Coast market is still declining.