Saturday, August 13, 2011

What Are Valuers Saying About Brisbane

A report from Herron Todd White this month, that is well worth reading. I have seen real estate agents email the positive parts of this to their mailing lists, leaving out the negatives! With that said, some extracts, but read the full report on the website.

"So our broad brush call is: Over the past six to twelve months, most markets in SEQ have seen a 5% to 10% fall, or at best remained steady, depending on the sector.

The inner and near city semi prestige and prestige sectors have shown some pain. These are usually stalwart markets with little that can dampen buyer enthusiasm but there are some higher end vendors who are obviously smarting and willing to meet the market as a quickly as possible.

For example: 16 McDonald St Gordon Park – purchased Feb 2008 for $1.022M. Reported recent sale May 2011 $950,000.

It’s also worth noting that our people on the ground are reporting with regular and frightening monotony on a raft of other resales we can’t quote here. Most are showing the magic 5% to 10% fall although some are bucking the trend and dropping further.

For real hurt, look no further than the affordable investor/ first home owner market in areas such as the western corridor. This sector has taken a hit as interest rate rises put fear in the hearts of those who are borrowing on the edge. Inala and Redbank Plains are finding serious and regular falls of 20% on prices achieved twelve months to two years ago. One of our team believes we are back to the early 2007 market in some areas.

If you’re looking for something safe, your best bet right now is an inner suburb traditional cottage. Who would have thougth during the heady days of late 2007 and early 2008 you would be able to pick something up in prestige Paddington for well under $600,000 come mid 2011. This is blue chip real estate my friends, and its selling at prices not seen since early 2007.

High end units in the city have also copped a hiding. A number of resales reported in the very desirable Riparian building for example are a testament to a slow slow market. There were a few buyers who bought off the plan here and looked to have made a handsome profit on completion of this landmark building. Unfortunately for those that held on and are now desperate to sell, the bad news is that they may have lost that upside and then some. As they say, no one ever made a loss selling at a profit.

The flat line performer in the CBD (i.e. read “winner”) seems to be the well located investor end one bedders. Whilst capital growth for this stock has never been glamorous, a ready and eager supply of tenants mostly in the form of overseas students means these properties have been relatively painless in the downswing.

Mid ring property has been having its ups and downs. Family homes here had, until recently, been fairly solid but a few recent sales are now showing buyers are less enthusiastic. Finally, large scale outer suburb projects are also on the wane. Two recent examples from north lakes in Brisbane’s north include:
1 Willandra Pde - Sold in May 2010 for $575,000. now under contract but not unconditional at the time of writing for $530,000. Interestingly the owners also put in a 36 sqm Bali Hut and timber deck since their original purchase.
20 Forrestal Cct - Sold in Feb 2009 for $780k, only to be resold April 2011 for $708k. A very nice house according to our man on the scene.

I know, I know, it all reads doom and gloom and it can be too easy to blame the examples on the conservative valuers peddling bad news, but this just isn’t the case. Our city has had a pretty good run in the property game since 2001 but the soft times are well and truly upon us. While some of our valuers are reporting a trickle of first home buyers back into the market, a serious trend has not yet emerged. On the plus side, our property market is presenting some seriously good opportunities for the cashed up buyer so Brisbane is well worth a look."

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