Showing posts with label developer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label developer. Show all posts

Thursday, January 21, 2016

China limits cash moves offshore - danger for property settlements

A story in today's Australian Financial Review is titled "China limits cash moves offshore" and show the risks for developers in relation to off-the-plan sales contracts.  The Chinese buyer may not be able to get the cash out of China, and then may not be able to settle the contract on completion of the building.  And try suing the Chinese buyer.  Some buildings under construction in Brisbane have more than 80% offshore buyers, so I suspect that some developers may run into troubles next year.

China limits cash moves offshore
AFR, 21 Jan 2016, p1

Shanghai | Chinese banks are delaying and even blocking some foreign exchange transactions under a decision by the central government to limit capital leaving the country, a move that could hurt demand for foreign assets including Australian property.

At meetings on Monday and Tuesday afternoon senior bank executives were told by the government to toughen up their capital controls.

While they haven't introduced new rules, one executive told The Australian Financial Review banks were using existing measures to slow the amount of money going overseas. The crackdown has seen more stringent checks for both companies and individuals.

"We are now refusing all foreign currency transfers where the documents are not fully complete … previously the requirements were not so strict," said a bank executive in Shanghai who asked not to be named.

...

An Australian real estate agent based in Shanghai, Scott Kirchner, said the tougher capital controls could "cause problems for Australian developers as clients may not be able to get their money out of China".

"I'm advising people not to sign a contract unless they already have their money outside China," said Mr Kirchner, a director of BellerChina. "There is lots of uncertainty at the moment and that might affect sales."

In China, individuals are restricted to exchanging the equivalent of $US50,000 in foreign currency each year.

American lawyer Dan Harris said on his blog on January 14 that his firm's China office had received more "money problem" calls in one week than it had received for the whole of the past year.

"If there is a common theme, it is that China banks seem to be doing whatever they can to avoid paying anyone in dollars," said Mr Harris from Seattle-based firm Harris Moure.  He said it had affected real estate agents and companies waiting for Chinese investment money.

Previously, one option for those interested in buying overseas property was to use the currency quotas of friends and family.

Alternatively, underground channels in Macau or Hong Kong were available to get money out of the country. Both these methods are now under increased scrutiny as the government tries to stabilise the yuan.

"They haven't introduced any new capital controls but the implementation of existing measures has been strengthened," said another executive, who works at one of China's big state-owned banks.

David Olsson, a China Practice Consultant at law firm King & Wood Mallesons, said Chinese banks "have clearly got some direction to look more closely at outbound capital flows particularly around Shanghai and Shenzhen".

He said it was not expected to affect legitimate outbound investment and Australia would continue to be a big beneficiary of Chinese investment in agriculture, services-related sectors and tourism."

Monday, January 4, 2016

Brisbane apartment market looking grim

According to the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index, dwelling values were absolutely flat across the combined capitals during December, with negative movements in Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra being offset by a rise in dwelling values across the remaining five capital cities. The Sydney housing market was the main drag on the December results, with dwelling values down 1.2%, while values were down 1.5% in Adelaide and 1.1% in Canberra, and down 0.5% for Brisbane apartments.

See full report here.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 December 2015):
December 2015 - down 0.5%
Quarter - no change
Year on Year - up 1.8%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $390,000

This is not a good result for the Brisbane apartment market for 2015.

The long term view for the Brisbane apartment market looks very uncertain.

There are a huge number of apartments being constructed.  There are also a number of new hotels opening, which impacts the short term rental markets (for example,  negatively impacting rents in apartment buildings such as Charlotte Towers, Aurora, Felix, Casino Towers and Festival Towers).  At present, from my informal survey, rents are decreasing in Brisbane and vacancy periods are significantly increasing.  This will only get worse.  I am not the only one say this.  See AFR article.

It is likely that valuations for new apartments sold off the plan in Brisbane will come in lower than the contract price, which may impact whether non-cash buyers will be able to settle.

My prediction for 2016 is that we may see values fall in 2nd tier buildings and remain flat in prestige buildings.  Rents will likely continue to decrease.  It looks grim.  What happened to the Gold Coast about 5 years ago (remember, Soul, Hilton and Oracle) may happen in Brisbane this year or next.

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Developments in Brisbane

A good website to look for future developments in Brisbane is the Brisbane Development website.  It demonstrates that there are many large apartment buildings in the pipeline for Brisbane.  Some examples:
  • CavCorp's proposal for 366 apartments at Newstead Gasworks.
  • Walker Corporation has plans for 433 apartments on Ann Street in the Valley.
  • Aria plans for 84 apartments in Vulture Street in the South Brisbane
  • Plans for 353 apartments on Brunswick Street in the Valley
Before buying, it is worth looking to see if your views will be blocked by any proposed new development.  And keep in mind that there is likely to be an oversupply of new apartments in Brisbane in the next 2 years.  Maybe wait until these buildings all settle, and you may then get a better price.

The Brisbane Development website has a good interactive map showing developments.


Sunday, October 26, 2014

Brisbane Skytower

Pre-marketing has commenced for Brisbane Skytower, said to be the tallest residential tower in Brisbane when it is completed.

It is being developed by Billbergia on the old Vision tower site (now called 111 + 222).

It has four sections, a downtown section, an uptown section, a skycity section and a skyrise section.  The starting price for what I guess is a one bedroom apartment starts at $425,000 in the downtown section and increases to a minimum of $595,000 in the skyrise section.

In less than a city block, there are more than 2,000 apartments coming online.  There are three towers, Skytower (at 222 Margaret Street), Abian (on the corner of Alice and Albert) and Camelot (on the corner of Albert and Margaret).  Seems like a glut to me.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Spire at 550 Queen Street

After it failed to sell the land, Consolidated Properties has announced that it will be developing a 39 level tower at 550 Queen Street, called Spire.  It will have 340 apartments, which appear to be small one and two bed apartments.

Previously, an office building was planned for the site.  See SMH.


Sunday, October 5, 2014

Large number of off-the-plan apartments being marketed in Brisbane

There are a large number of new apartments being marketed by developers in Brisbane at present.  Buyers beware!  Here is a list of just some of them.

Cinque at Kelvin Grove
FV in the Valley (Flatiron Valley?)
Light and Co at West End
CP Residences at Indooroopilly (Central Park Residences)
Arbor at West End
The Highgate at Highgate Hill
Mode at Newstead
Unison at Newstead
Rivers Edge at Breakfast Creek
Habitat West End
Citro at West End
Abian Skyhomes on Alice Street
Spire in the City
Grace on Coronation at Toowong
Boggo Road
The Hudson, at Albion
Spice Apartments, South Brisbane
The Milton
Skyring at Newstead
Newstead Towers
Broadway on Ann in the Valley
Central Village, the Valley
New World Towers in South Brisbane
Riverview Towers at Kangaroo Point
South Point in South Brisbane
Liberte, Kangaroo Point
Yungaba, Kangaroo Point
Hamilton Reach
Proximity Hamilton
Canopy at Bardon
Circa at Nundah
Basse at South Brisbane
Hope Street at South Brisbane
Soda at South Brisbane
Botanica at South Brisbane
Jade at Albion
OneBrisbane at Bowen Hills
The Yards at Bowen Hills
Keynote at West End
River Le at West End
Art House at South Brisbane
Opera at South Brisbane
Hercules at Hamilton

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Place Apartment Report

Place has published their "Current Market Report - Inner Brisbane Apartments - March Quarter 2014".  Link is here.

The report focuses on new, off-the-plan apartment developments, and is worth reading.  Many people say that there soon will be an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane.  At present, it is taking longer to rent out apartments, so maybe the glut is already here.  Maybe there will be an oversupply of smaller rental apartments and an undersupply of apartments for owner-occupiers?

Some highlights from the report:
  • The three months to March 2014 recorded 639 unconditional sales. Although this is not to the same level of transactions as the record breaking December Quarter prior, this is still almost twice the 10 year average of 326 unconditional sales per quarter.
  • A weighted average of $710,524 was recorded during the March 2014 quarter. This is a figure 30% above the December period previously and representative of a higher level of owner occupier sales recorded in Inner Brisbane as opposed to any genuine price growth.
  • The increase in local buyers has seen 52% of transactions recorded as two bedroom configurations.
  • Despite this weighted average price rise, the 12 month rolling average price remains under $600,000, reflecting an overall longer term demand for affordable inner city apartments.
  • One bedroom sales represented a further 40% of the quarter’s transactions, again the bulk of which transacted within the $350,000 and $450,000 price point.
  • The distribution by price point was more evenly spread through the first quarter of 2014. The $350,000 to $450,000 price point still however retained the market share with 26% of the quarter’s sales.
  • There were 1,225 apartments remaining for sale in Inner Brisbane at the end of the March 2014 quarter – The lowest level in 4 years.
  • Overall, two bedroom apartments maintain the majority of current supply within Brisbane equating to 58% of the apartments remaining on the market. One bedroom apartments total only 29% of the available apartments for sale, and 3 beds represent only 9%.
  • There were six new projects which recorded unconditional sales during the March 2014 quarter. These included Abian (CBD), Proximity (Hamilton), 38 High Street (Toowong).
  • The best performing projects in Brisbane during the quarter were Abian (108 transactions), Broadway on Anne (58 transactions), Southpoint (46 transactions), Proximity (45 transactions), and 38 High Street (44 transactions).

Saturday, May 24, 2014

Small Apartments

In today's AFR (Australian Financial Review), there is an article titled "Size rules could hurt apartment market".  The article states:
  • Property investors are being warned that banks may not finance "popular micro apartments" currently being built.
  • Cookie-cutter apartments that are less than 50sqm in size are not cutting it with lenders.
  • Apartments between 40 and 50 sqm are being marketed as accommodation suitable for foreign students.
  • There is a disagreement between developers and surveyors about how to determine an apartment size (measured from the outside wall or the inside wall).  Developers usually measure from the outside wall.
Keep in mind that a typical hotel room (bed and bathroom, no kitchen) is about 33 sqm.  A bedroom is about 12 sqm.  Older apartments are often in better locations and are larger than some of the newer apartments being marketed in Brisbane.  Over time, a typical two bedroom apartment in Brisbane has decreased in size from 132 sqm, to 116 sqm, to 110 sqm, to 95 sqm, to 85 sqm and now 75 sqm.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Urban Construct

South Australian based Urban Construct has acquired more than $100 million in development sites in Brisbane.  They have development applications in train for 2,200 apartments in South Brisbane, Newstead and Wooloongabba.  This includes:
  • 611 Coronation Drive - 275 apartments
  • 142 Montague Road, West End - 400 apartments
  • Vulture Street, Wooloongabba - 240 apartments
  • Ella & Chester Streets, Newstead
  • Hope St, South Brisbane

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Soda Goes Soggy

It has been reported recently that the Soda apartment development in South Brisbane did not receive development approval from the Council.  Although 129 out of 131 have sold off-the-plan, the developer had not obtained development approval to build the building.

A newspaper report states that the apartments do not have sufficient ventilation, ceiling heights are too low, and there is not enough visitor car parking.  "The only outlook of many of the habitable room windows would be to a (future) adjoining development in very close proximity."

Well-known property law David Colenso said:  "Contracting 98% of apartments without a development approval contravenes all the basis risk parameters of property development.  Judging by the extent of councils refusal, this developer may need to redesign the development which puts at risk all contracts under Queensland's disclosure regime."

When I looked at this development in October, I thought that it was expensive.  It now looks to be very expensive, due to what appears to be poor quality design.

Investors buying off-the-plan should look at the checklists and information in this book.  Ceiling height, aspect and cross-ventilation are important to consider, and are often not disclosed in the glossy sales brochures.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Warren Buffet's view of buying in the resale market

Should I buy off-the-plan from a developer, or a resale apartment?  Warren Buffet has an interesting view in relation to IPOs and stocks, from his letter to shareholders in 1992, that I have adapted below for residential real estate:

"The secondary market which is periodically ruled by mass folly, is constantly setting a 'clearing' price.  No matter how foolish that price may be, it's what counts for the holder of property who needs or wishes to sell, of whom there are always going to be a few at any moment.  In may instances, properties worth $X in value have sold at 1/2 or less.

The new off-the-plan market, on the other hand, is ruled by developers, who can usually select the timing of offerings or, if the market looks unfavourable, avoid an offering altogether.  Understandably, these sellers are not going to offer any bargains; it is rare you'll find X for 1/2 X here."

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Another Pradella West End Development

Pradella has started marketing a new development on the large parcel of land it has accumulated in West End.  This development is being promoted as Gardens Riverside West End (although it is not river front, and has a road and the Waters Edge buildings between it and the river, and it is a long walk from the main shopping and restaurant street in West End).

There appear to be many more Pradella buildings planned for this plot of land in West End.


Thursday, February 13, 2014

New or Resale?

I am often asked whether it is better to buy a new or resale apartment?  A new apartment can be unsold developer stock in a new building or an off-the-plan apartment for a building not yet built.  A resale is a sale from someone other than the original developer.

There is a price difference between a new and resale apartment in Brisbane.  Sometimes, this is because a new apartment is new, with no wear and tear (e.g., freshly painted, new carpet, new kitchen, new appliances, etc).  But often, the price difference is not explained by newness.  Sometimes, the price difference is due to developer profit and marketing costs.

For example, Sunland is currently marketing Abian.  A large number of people I know have received a fancy brochure mailed to them, unsolicited, by Sunland.  There is an expensive display office onsite in Alice Street, where the landscaping alone would have cost a small fortune.  There is a video of a lost rich girl wandering around Brisbane, that does a good job not showing the neighbouring Quay West building.  Buyers are paying for all these marketing costs, plus the developers profits.

Another example is Infinity, by Meriton.  2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 89 sqm in total, no balcony, 7 apartments per floor, short stay and hotel guests, for $647,000 and up!

Or you can buy an apartment in Metro 21, on level 25, with river views, a large balcony, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 113 sqm total floor area, 4 apartments per floor, no short term rentals or hotel guests.  For a price less than a Meriton apartment.   Metro 21 is a boutique residential building, with good facility, and a low ratio of residents to facilities.  Seems like an obvious decision to me.

That is $7,269 per sqm compared with less than $5,700 per sqm.


Saturday, February 8, 2014

550 Queen Street Potential Tower

Consolidated Properties has put 550 Queen Street up for sale.  It has frontages to Queen St, Ann St and Clark Lane.  The land has development approval for a 20,000 sqm tower.  The AFR reported on Thursday (8/2/14, p. 45) that there was strong interest from residential development companies.  (The article also states that 4000 residential apartments are currently under construction in Brisbane, with up to another 3000 that could complete by 2015/16.  There is a risk of oversupply.)

This proposed development will have a negative impact on Willahra Tower, at 540 Queen Street.  Willahra Tower is an apartment building that has short term rentals.  (Bad reviews on TripAdvisor.)  Small apartments, with a two bedroom less than 75sqm internal.  Apartments are advertised as "cheap", and there is a reason for this.  My advice -- avoid!


Saturday, February 1, 2014

Aria's South Brisbane Bet

The AFR on Thursday (30/01/14, p.38) had a full page story about Brisbane apartment developer, Aria.  Some highlights:
  • Aria has sold 188 apartments in three residential towers it has completed in South Brisbane since mid-2012.
  • It has a 20 storey tower under construction on Grey Street.
  • It is about to start another 20 storey tower of the corner of Edmondstone and Boundary Streets.
  • Aria owns a dozen more sites in South Brisbane.
  • South Brisbane is catching up to Bowen Hills and The Valley for residential apartment development.
  • The change is due to construction of office towers, bring 10,000 workers to the area.
  • Residential building approvals have jumped from 151 in 2010/11 to 744 in 2012/13.
  • Gross rental yields are said to be 6%.
  • Prices for Aria's apartments are $7,500 to $8,000 a sqm, and are likely to rise.
  • Aria has lodged a DA for a 26 storey tower on Hope Street that will have over 180 apartments.
  • Aria pays interest on deposits for off-the-plan apartments.
  • 75% of Aria's clients are investors, with fewer than 10% being SMSFs.
  • Half the buyers are from SE Queensland.
  • There are more than 4000 apartments under construction in inner Brisbane.  The biggest supply potential is in Brisbane's North Eastern area, around Bowen Hills and The Valley - this is seen as a risk.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Pradella developments

Pradella has a number of apartment developments in Brisbane that are currently being marketed.  These include:

Riverside, West End
1 bedrooms from $400,000
2 bedrooms from $540,000
3 bedrooms from $929,000
These apartments will be located behind the Waters Edge complex.  Project website.

Skyview, Kelvin Grove
1 bedrooms from $335,000
2 bedrooms from $524,000
3 bedrooms from $789,000
Settlement expected late 2014.

Canvas, South Brisbane
1 bedrooms from $346,000
2 bedrooms from $575,000
Settlement expected mid 2014.

Urban Edge, Kelvin Grove -- development completed
1 bedrooms from $429,000
2 bedrooms from $539,000

Waters Edge, West End -- development completed
2 bedrooms from $600,000
3 bedrooms from $889,000

Parklands at Sherwood - development completed
from $395,000


Friday, December 27, 2013

38 High Street

A new apartment development is currently being marketed off-the-plan in Toowong.  It is 38 High Street, overlooking the R.E. Hotel.  It even has a floor plan painted on the side of the sales suite.  the sign says that 2 bedroom apartments are available for under $500,000.  There are a number of sites in central Toowong earmarked for development.


Friday, August 16, 2013

Guaranteed Losses if you pay too much

If you pay too much to a developer when buying off the plan, no matter how good the location, and how good the development, you will loose money.  Often, developers will show you beautiful brochures of the facilities in the location (all true) and tell you rents are higher in this location than others (again true) and that it is a popular, closely held area (true again), and then try to sell you an apartment that is 20% above market value.  If this happens, you will likely suffer a capital loss.  See this story for example about capital losses in a bullet proof area.  Investors looking at SouthPoint at SouthBank, which is a brilliant location and looks to be a quality development, should take notice of this warning, particularly when prices are more than $10,000 a square metre.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Metro Property Group - A remarkable marketing machine

Last week, Ken Woodley, marketing director of Metro Property Group, zoomed past me in his Jaguar.  He was leaving his Mirvac penthouse and heading in the direction of the Valley.  He must be super happy with the sales of Metro's off-the-plan apartments in the Valley.  As reported today in Property Observer, Metro has been hugely successful in its Valley developments.  Although they are marketed as luxury apartments, in my view, they are small, basic apartments, targeted at foreign investors who cannot buy existing apartments due to FIRB rules.

"Devine’s Metro Property Development group recorded 67 off-the-plan sales over the March quarter for Cambridge Towers, the first stage of its $450 million Central Village development in Fortitude Valley making it the top seller by some margin, according to the latest inner Brisbane apartment update from Colliers International.  Now under construction, Metro had sold 92 out of 165 units in the development as of the end of the March quarter.  In a release earlier this month, Metro said it had sold 80% of the 160 apartments in Oxford Towers, stage two of the project, with one and two bedroom apartments ranging from $275,000 to $575,000.  On completion Central Village will comprise five towers and approximately 970 apartments. The project is expected to take approximately five years to complete."

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Festival Towers lawsuit

Many owners of apartments in Festival Towers in Brisbane, and the body corporate, are suing Devine Limited and Brookfield Multiplex Constructions for a large amount of damages concerning the construction (and alleged construction defects) in Festival Towers.  Details of the lawsuit can be found here on the Supreme Court website.  I have been told that there have been special body corporate levies to partially fund the lawsuit.

Any prospective purchaser should have their lawyers study the lawsuit paperwork, including the schedule of defects, in detail.

At the time of development and construction of Festival Towers, Devine Limited was run by David Devine, with Ken Woodley as the senior person on the sales side.  Devine and Woodley are now running Metro Property Group, which is a marvellous sales machine.

Festival Towers, managed by Oaks, doesn't have the greatest feeling in my view.  Partly short term accommodation and partly foreign students (packed into small apartments, and sleeping in hallways and living rooms), and a popular place for travelling hookers, Festival Towers has always disappointed me.

In my opinion, purchasing apartments off-the-plan has risks, because you don't know the level of quality that will actually be delivered.  The sales contract is most often in the developer's favour.  In a number of circumstances, I have seen glossy brochures inferring high quality, but the product that is delivered is low quality.  For this reason, I always take that view that off-the-plan pricing should be less than current market pricing to take into account this risk.  Unfortunately, most developers are selling apartments off-the-plan at prices that are higher than you could buy an existing similar apartment -- the only difference being age.

An agent I spoke to recently who was selling off-the-plan informed me that his competition was not other new developments, but resale apartments in recently finished buildings by the same developer.  He said the price of the resale apartments was about 15% less than his almost identical new, under construction apartments.  And buying an existing apartment is way less risky than purchasing off-the-plan.