Showing posts with label oversupply. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oversupply. Show all posts

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Fire Sale

"A mass apartment fire sale could be set to swamp Brisbane in the next 12 months — allowing would-be first home buyers to finally get a foot on the property ladder. 
The inner city housing market is in the grip of an apartment glut thanks to a “record boom” in high-density dwelling construction, according to economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics.
But it means now could be the best time to bag a bargain.
Managing director Robert Mellor is predicting a frenzy of discounting by developers to take hold for at least another year, with prices for remaining stock in some projects to be slashed by at least 10 per cent to 15 per cent."

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Is there an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane?

"Brisbane’s high-rise apartments have been growing at a rate of 34% to 43% each census since 2001. This year alone, Brisbane has had 9,000 new apartments supplied, which is a massive 200% increase since 2015. As a result, Brisbane currently has a huge supply of new apartments, and is evidently oversupplied in popular inner-city suburbs such as Fortitude Valley, Newstead and West End.

However, over the past 12 months, there has been a large reduction in apartment building approvals as more developers have become fearful of the current market. At the moment, 38% of projects with development approval have been deferred indefinitely. Larger developers are even opting to land bank and sell existing projects as they fear getting stuck with a partial apartment development. This is now contributing to Brisbane’s stalling apartment price growth in the densely populated suburbs."

Friday, February 2, 2018

Vacancy Rate of Brisbane Apartments

The vacancy rate of inner city Brisbane property has increased to above 4%.  This is regarded as being unhealthy for landlords.  Rents are decreasing - and tenants are asking for rent reductions on renewals.

See http://www.beesnees.com.au/2018/02/brisbanes-rental-vacancy-rate-4/

Friday, June 16, 2017

REIQ says Brisbane apartment market is oversupplied

The REIQ reports, unsurprisingly, that the supply of apartments in Brisbane is showing an upwards trend, and is an oversupplied market.  I suspect the trend is that things will get worse for sellers, rather than better, over the next 12 months.

Monday, May 15, 2017

Five months supply

A report from RP Data CoreLogic today says that there is about 5 months supply of property for sale in Brisbane.  This does not include off the plan properties that are for sale.
The months of supply figure compares the number of unique properties advertised for sale to the number of transactions in the market.  The analysis provides an insight into how long it should take to clear the volume of stock currently available for sale.  Off-the-plan housing stock is typically not advertised for sale as individual properties and as a result is not included within this analysis.
Based on the relationship between demonstrated housing demand and advertised stock levels, CoreLogic is seeing relatively more stock available for sale compared to demand for that stock across the capital cities at the moment.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Brisbane Apartments -- What happens next?

Most predictions for the Brisbane apartment market for 2017 are that prices will fall, and that there is going to be an oversupply or glut of apartments.  Well, maybe.

I think there may be a glut of certain kinds of apartments in certain areas.  For example, there are a large number of apartments under construction in Bowen Hills and Newstead.  Many of these apartments are small apartments in large buildings.  Some of the buildings are not in great locations or have poor aspects.  I am not sure who will want to live in these apartments.

But I don't think the news is all grim.  My reasons for saying this:

1.   In certain areas, there is no a glut of apartments.  Or even where a number of new buildings are under construction or have just been completed, the area has many facilities and a good location.  For example, South Brisbane, Indooroopilly and Toowong have new apartment buildings, but these are excellent areas, and can probably hold up to the new stock entering the market.

2.   Existing apartments that are 10 to 20 years only are good value.  Many are large apartments and are located in the better areas, and have good views.  Compared with newer apartments, which are smaller, the older apartments look very price competitive.

3.  There is a shortage of large apartments.  As baby boomers look to downsize, and wealthy families move from Asia to Brisbane, they are looking for apartments that are more than 120 sqm in size.  There are very few apartments in Brisbane that are spacious and luxurious.

4.  Compared with Sydney, or the freestanding house market in Brisbane, prices for apartments have been relatively flat for the past 2 to 4 years.

5.  Rents have decreased for some apartment types, but I think that rents will not keep decreasing.  I suspect that this time next year, we may start to see rent increases for certain apartments.

6.  Not all apartment buildings that have been announced or that are being sold off-the-plan will actually be built.  The potential oversupply is less than anticipated.  (That being said, there are a lot of apartments under construction, and there will be an oversupply.)

One example to consider.  Sunland is building Abian on the corner of Albert Street and Alice Street in Brisbane city.  The apartments were sold off the plan about 2 years ago (it has sold out) and settlement is likely to take place in June and July this year.  It has a great location, overlooking the Botanical Gardens, and will not be built out other than on the rear side.  It is on a corner block.  It is tall, but there are only about 150 apartments in the building.  Most are large.  The quality of the build and finishings are reported to be super.  There are resales available, and it is said that these kinds of prices are being achieved:
  • Two bedroom, 69 sqm - from $680,000
  • Two bedroom, 103 sqm internal- from $1,150,000
  • Two bedroom and study, about 135 sqm internal - from $1,175,000
  • Three bedroom and study, 150 sqm internal - from $1,700,000
  • Three bedroom and media room, 200 sqm internal - from $2,700,000
This does not suggest to me that there is oversupply of this kind of apartment in this location.  (Or do these high prices tell us that a crash is coming?)

On Wednesday, the AFR had an article that said:  "... This year, that courage may well pay off for investors in established apartments.  In Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, owners of these older style 1930s to 1970s built apartments saw little or no return last year and would have enviously watched houses perform substantially better.  This divergence in performance has been due to an oversupply of new units suppressing the entire apartment sector.  But with a slew of recent ABS data showing the apartment building boom is fading, we may well see the first signs of a recovery in older style unit prices and a vindication for remaining faithful to these assets in hard times."

Is now the time to buy established Brisbane apartments?


Sunday, October 9, 2016

Brisbane Rental Yields

The resale market for apartments in Brisbane at present is slow.  There are bargains if you are buying, and it is taking a long time to sell if you are a seller, and often the seller is disappointed with the sales price. 

At present, for apartments in Brisbane that are being sold resale (that is, not by the developer off the plan), the sales prices are decreasing.  Rents are also decreasing, as there is an oversupply.  This is a generalisation, and does not apply to all apartment types or all areas.

I have recently studied the Indooroopilly area.  The gross rental yields are good.  For reasonable quality 2 bedroom apartments, prices have dropped about 10 to 15%.  So apartment that were selling for $485K to $530K last year are now selling in the range of $425K to $500K, with most sales being about $450K to $465K.  Some vendors are selling for more than $100,000 less than what they paid.  The rents for these apartments have dropped from a range of $520 to $560 a week to $480 to $510 a week.  New developments with smaller but modern apartments are doing promotions such as 4 weeks free rent.  On an apartment that I own in Indooroopilly, I am getting a gross yield of 5.7% , where the lease was signed last week.  

Small city apartments are struggling, esp those that are rented in short term rental pools.  I have seen one apartment building in an Accor rental pool where net returns (after rates and body corporates etc) on large one bedroom furnished apartments have dropped from $13,000 a year to less than $5,000 a year. 

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Brisbane real estate agents say "sell now!"

I receive many newsletters and emails from real estate agents in Brisbane, especially those who specialise in Brisbane apartment resales.  All are advising that now is the time to sell, not the time to buy.  Some examples:

Position Property, Brad Munro:, Autumn 2016 newsletter
  • "There is no denying that there are concerns over just how many apartments are being built across Brisbane."
  • "The concern I have is that many of these developments are being sold anywhere from 80% to 100% to inventors.  Many of these buildings have 200-300 or more apartments -- there needs to be a lot of tenants to fill them all."
  • "Rental prices will decrease which then affects the investment return for the investor.  Even now, with only a limited number of these developments being finished, the rental prices are down from what the investor was promised.  I believe there is more pain to come."
  • "There are fewer buyers in the market."
  • "I am really concerned as to what the next 3 years has in store."
  • "I have no doubt that selling in the next 6 months is going to achieve a better result than waiting until next year."
Tessa Residential CBD Market Overview
  • "We anticipate a stable and consistent market place in 2016..."
  • Oversupply "is a reality throughout suburbs such as Newstead, Bowen Hills, South Brisbane and West End and as a result is having an impact on the rental market with rents across the City starting to soften."
  • "We believe 2016 will represent the optimum time for sellers who are considering cashing in on the improved market, which has continued to grow since June 2013."
So sell now if you are thinking of selling in the next 3 years, but don't buy now -- wait till next year!

Saturday, June 4, 2016

Brisbane apartment oversupply?

Will there be an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane?  In certain geographic areas, and for certain styles of apartments, I think that the answer will be yes.  Some clear reasons for oversupply include:
  • extremely high level of construction of high rise apartments in some areas, many with a large number of small apartments
  • low population growth
  • apartments targeted at investors, not owner occupiers, so a more limited market segment of buyers and renters
  • apartments being constructed in second and third tier areas.
However, I don't think that all the apartments currently "in progress" will actually be built.  This includes apartment projects that have good pre-sales and where "construction has started".  This is because:
  • some developers are unable to obtain the level of finance needed to commence the project
  • construction costs have increased dramatically, especially for union built projects, and so the project is no longer viable, even if the project is sold out
  • simply because the site has been cleared, and some work has started, does not mean the that project is underway -- it may never be built.
  • the number and percentage of presales in a development is often overstated by the developer in advertising and market surveys, and so the developer will not in fact be able to obtain finance at all.
So I think that the level of oversupply may be overstated.  There will still be oversupply, just not as bad as some people are predicting.

There are other risks in the high-rise apartment market:
  • off-the-plan buyers may have trouble settling, because valuations may be lower than contract price, because banks are not lending to offshore buyers, and because banks are requiring a higher cash contribution.
  • rents are likely to fall, which means that valuations will fall
  • some projects are overpriced, and it is likely that after settlement sales prices will be less than  the contract price
  • some constructions companies are in financial difficulties, and so are cutting corners -- the end product many be different, and lower quality, to what is expected by the buyer
  • many buildings are being built close to other buildings, impacting light, view and ventilation
  • foreign buyers may evaporate.
The question in my mind is whether this will impact the high quality buildings in good locations that have large apartments with good aspect?

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Response to Reader Comment regarding quality Brisbane apartments

A reader recently posted this comment, in relation to my post below:

"... you are certainly correct that there is a lot of stock under construction that will settle through the end of this year and next. However, with few exceptions most of this is small 1bd and 2bd "investor" stock targeted at the rental market. As you said, this is already leading to increases in vacancy rates and lower rents - at present, this is probably just a return to normal but it will probably over-correct and the rents/vacancy for small 1bd and 2bd stock will be worse than long term trend levels. That said, why do you see this impacting on quality owner occupier buildings such as admiralty, quay west?? The investor stock being constructed at present is vastly different to the owner occupier stock and I doubt there are many occupiers out there tossing up between admiralty and meriton's soleil. I feel the two markets will diverge and the the limited amount of quality owner occupier stock will lead to growth in this market. Do you not agree?"

This is my response.  The over-supply in Brisbane is having an impact on the rental market for the high quality, owner occupied buildings.  Note that many these buildings still have more than 40% of the apartments rented out, usually to long term tenants.  For example, in Admiralty Towers, large three bedroom apartments that rented for about $1,400 a week at the top of the rental market boom are now renting for less than $1,000 a week.  An excellent large one bedroom apartment with river views, fully furnished, has been vacant for months, at an asking rent of less than $600 a week.  This apartment would have rented quickly at about $640 a week two years ago.  For some reason, some tenants prefer smaller apartments in newer buildings.

The rental market in quality buildings is being impacted by a number of factors, and not just new apartments being completed.  These factors include:
  • the end of the mining boom, so less executive rentals
  • a rental boom, that probably caused rents to increase too much
  • short term rental apartments not achieving good returns, and so these are re-entering the long term rental market
  • lower population growth
  • no income growth
  • younger people having different views as to what is a trendy apartment
  • more choice in more inner city locations
Prices seem to be holding up at present, partly because interest rates are so low.  I recently locked in an investor loan fixed for 3 years at 4.09%.  Even at a reduced rent, this property is cash flow positive today.  So why sell?

I agree that owner-occupiers still have little choice for quality apartments in Brisbane.  If you are looking for a large two or three bedroom apartment in a quality building in a good location, there is still not much choice.  Very few of the new buildings would be suitable if you are looking for a long term residence.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Ray White Agent's View of Brisbane apartment market

From an email from a Brisbane Ray White agent:

"The concerns for property owners for the next 12-18 months is that with around 23,000 new apartments under construction around the CBD & fringe, is that it will have a volcano effect and force property prices and rent down due to the over supply. 

We are seeing this happen at the moment in Surfers Paradise with 9/10 owners are losing money on their property. Sydney and Melbourne have already seen this happen. We are recommending it's crucial to have a think what your property plans are for the next few years. 

If you are having any thoughts of selling, don't hesitate to get in touch before it's too late. This new stock coming to the Brisbane market is not far away. 

Good news is! The market is strong at the moment."

Saturday, August 1, 2015

Prediction that Brisbane Rents will not fall

"Brisbane's booming inner-city apartment construction market has led many to speculate a fall in rental prices could ensue in late 2015 as the market is flooded.  However, Dr Wilson said that in Melbourne, where there have been record levels of inner-city apartment developments, rents have continued to increase, which could bode well for Brisbane investors, though not so much for renters."

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Leave Your Money in the Bank

"The latest research shows that only 10% of sales in the Brisbane inner-city unit market are to owner-occupiers. Investors are buying 90% of the stock and the great majority of them are distant investors – people from interstate and overseas. Many will wish they had left their money in the bank.
Vacancies in Brisbane’s inner-city suburbs range from 4% or 6.5% - and that’s before all the new supply now under construction hits the rental market. BIS Shrapnel research shows that a record number of new apartments will be completed this year, but more will be finished next year and even more the year after. These numbers are a red flag for sensible buyers.
Brisbane, like Melbourne and the Gold Coast, is building far too many apartments because they’re not being created for local consumption – they’re being conceived for sale to unsuspecting foreign buyers."

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Supply Greater than Demand in Brisbane

4BC Real Estate Guru Keven Turner has downplayed any risk of undersupply in the Brisbane apartment market despite recent reports of an upcoming boom in demand.
Speaking to Mark Braybook on 4BC Mornings, Mr Turner said that the supply of new units far outweighs recent increases in demand.
"If you look at the number of approvals sort of going forward, we've only got something like 2000 or 1500 to 2000 units in the pipeline which is not even going to meet demand."
Mr Turner said Melbourne is at a far greater risk of oversupply with over 20 000 new units being planned or developed.
However Mr Turner has warned potential buyers in Brisbane to be prepared to hold onto properties well into the long term if they are seeking to make a profit.  
"Developers actually have a huge amount of control over new stock, new development stock, so they pretty much do actually control that market.  If you find that you're buying a unit you're probably gonna have to hold onto it for anything up to five to 10 years to get something value back out of it." 
Source 4BC Radio

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Start Sounding the Alarm!

Australia will run into a glut of apartments in just two years led by Melbourne and Brisbane - but other cities are also building more than they need, says BIS Shrapnel.

The forecaster, which started warning about an apartment overhang in Melbourne a year ago, is now also ramping up warnings about Brisbane and Adelaide. 

Brisbane's voracious appetite for apartment construction has resulted in a stock surplus that dates back at least to 2006, but that glut is about to triple from 5000 from last financial year to 15,000 by next year, BIS Shrapnel says.
See AFR

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

No oversupply in Inner Brisbane for Apartments?

"Brisbane's inner-city apartment market is a long way from being oversupplied, according to leading real estate adviser Urbis.
Issuing its detailed inner-city report on Wednesday, the group reported that a record 1500 sales had been made in the December quarter from 111 apartment projects. The September quarter recorded 1400 and such numbers have not been seen since 2007.
Urbis economic and market research director Mal Aikman said future supply was "not an issue" and that investors from Sydney and Melbourne were seeing value in Brisbane.
"Looking forward what we find is that in the first and second quarters of 2015 there are about 5000 apartments available for sale," Mr Aikman said.  "At the current rate of demand, that would equate to a sales rate of about 4000 apartments. So demand is slightly behind, but not significantly, and we're a long way from saying there's an oversupply or a glut."
Urbis noted that the Brisbane central business district had a huge surge in sales almost entirely driven by AMP Capital and Billbergia's Skytower, which saw 415 sales worth $267 million."
In my opinion, Urbis is overly optimistic.  There may be buyers for off the plan apartments, but will there be enough renters?  I suspect that most buyers in Brisbane Skytower are from China.

The Brisbane Times provides this gloss:

He admitted prices for new apartments were highly unlikely to rise in the coming year due to the increased supply and stopped short of guaranteeing they would fall.  However, he indicated tumbling price tags to live in the inner-city were probable.  "Our view is prices aren't likely to rise but whether they will fall really depends on the developers," he said.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Brisbane Apartment Glut, then Crash

Queensland University of Technology property economist, Professor Chris Eves, has warned a glut in apartments in Brisbane's CBD, South Brisbane and West End would cause a price crash for apartments in 2016.
"I know of one construction company [Hutchinson] that currently has contracts out for 3000 units in those locations and basically when you are looking at those sorts of numbers, you are looking at a serious oversupply, he said.
Professor Eves said research showed there had been a 9% increase in the number of approvals for apartments in inner-city Brisbane in the past year.
"But we are not seeing the same sort of increase in the population," he said.
The crash will hurt major developers, off-the-plan buyers and some banks, but deliver a bonanza for renters and buyers.
"If we see those approval numbers continue, we are looking at the potential of another Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast glut in the unit market."  
He said the glut in Brisbane CBD, South Brisbane and West End apartments would peak in 2016, causing prices to drop sharply.

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Developments in Brisbane

A good website to look for future developments in Brisbane is the Brisbane Development website.  It demonstrates that there are many large apartment buildings in the pipeline for Brisbane.  Some examples:
  • CavCorp's proposal for 366 apartments at Newstead Gasworks.
  • Walker Corporation has plans for 433 apartments on Ann Street in the Valley.
  • Aria plans for 84 apartments in Vulture Street in the South Brisbane
  • Plans for 353 apartments on Brunswick Street in the Valley
Before buying, it is worth looking to see if your views will be blocked by any proposed new development.  And keep in mind that there is likely to be an oversupply of new apartments in Brisbane in the next 2 years.  Maybe wait until these buildings all settle, and you may then get a better price.

The Brisbane Development website has a good interactive map showing developments.


Sunday, October 26, 2014

Brisbane Skytower

Pre-marketing has commenced for Brisbane Skytower, said to be the tallest residential tower in Brisbane when it is completed.

It is being developed by Billbergia on the old Vision tower site (now called 111 + 222).

It has four sections, a downtown section, an uptown section, a skycity section and a skyrise section.  The starting price for what I guess is a one bedroom apartment starts at $425,000 in the downtown section and increases to a minimum of $595,000 in the skyrise section.

In less than a city block, there are more than 2,000 apartments coming online.  There are three towers, Skytower (at 222 Margaret Street), Abian (on the corner of Alice and Albert) and Camelot (on the corner of Albert and Margaret).  Seems like a glut to me.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Large number of off-the-plan apartments being marketed in Brisbane

There are a large number of new apartments being marketed by developers in Brisbane at present.  Buyers beware!  Here is a list of just some of them.

Cinque at Kelvin Grove
FV in the Valley (Flatiron Valley?)
Light and Co at West End
CP Residences at Indooroopilly (Central Park Residences)
Arbor at West End
The Highgate at Highgate Hill
Mode at Newstead
Unison at Newstead
Rivers Edge at Breakfast Creek
Habitat West End
Citro at West End
Abian Skyhomes on Alice Street
Spire in the City
Grace on Coronation at Toowong
Boggo Road
The Hudson, at Albion
Spice Apartments, South Brisbane
The Milton
Skyring at Newstead
Newstead Towers
Broadway on Ann in the Valley
Central Village, the Valley
New World Towers in South Brisbane
Riverview Towers at Kangaroo Point
South Point in South Brisbane
Liberte, Kangaroo Point
Yungaba, Kangaroo Point
Hamilton Reach
Proximity Hamilton
Canopy at Bardon
Circa at Nundah
Basse at South Brisbane
Hope Street at South Brisbane
Soda at South Brisbane
Botanica at South Brisbane
Jade at Albion
OneBrisbane at Bowen Hills
The Yards at Bowen Hills
Keynote at West End
River Le at West End
Art House at South Brisbane
Opera at South Brisbane
Hercules at Hamilton