Another Pradella West End Development

Pradella has started marketing a new development on the large parcel of land it has accumulated in West End.  This development is being promoted as Gardens Riverside West End (although it is not river front, and has a road and the Waters Edge buildings between it and the river, and it is a long walk from the main shopping and restaurant street in West End).

There appear to be many more Pradella buildings planned for this plot of land in West End.

River Point on Ferry and Flow

Stockwell is marketing 50 new apartments at West End, in its River Point development, called River Point on Ferry.  Prices range for $560,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment up to just under $2M.

Nearby, Pradella is marketing apartments in Waters Edge, which has been completed but still has unsold developer stock.  Apt 1606, 2 bedrooms, is listed at $619,000.  Apt 2209, 2 bedrooms, is listed at $699,000.  Apt 1111, 3 bedrooms, is $929,000.  A neighbouring development by Pradella, Flow, also has developer stock for sale.

Waters Edge

Both towers of Waters Edge on the Brisbane River are now complete.

1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments now selling:

• 1 bed from $499,000
• 2 bed from $549,000
• 3 bed from $899,000

You can pick up a large 3 bedroom with river views for $1.9M or a 2 bedroom with no views for $629,000. (The agent reports, in a comment below, that the two bedroom has river views. It is on level 5, and is 4 apartments back from the river front apartment. It has side views. It also has views of the commercial building next door.)

[photo of Flow on left, and the two Waters Edge buildings to the right]

The same developer, Pradella, built the Flow complex which is next door. It is always a good idea to see what resale apartments are available to compare pricing:

• Two bedroom, 4th floor, river views, 144 sqm - $995,000
• Two bedroom, lower floor, $995,000 (they are dreaming!)
• Two bedroom, rear of building, no views - $615,000 (seems too high to me)
• Two bedroom, on side of building, weird design $675,000
• Three bedroom, ground floor, 190 sqm - $1,000,000

The most recent sales in Flow were:

• Apt 81 (2 bedrooms, with river views) for $1,030,000 (which was slightly more than the off-the-plan price for this apartment).
• Apt 15 (2 bedrooms at rear) $540,000 (capital loss of $25,000 from off-the-plan sales price)
• Apt 48 for $590,000
• Apt 73 for $439,000 (capital loss of $50,000)
• Apt 65 (2 bedrooms) for $525,000 (capital loss of $115,000)
• Apt 62 (3 bedrooms) for $1,150,000

Good Size Two Bedroom Apartments in Brisbane

I have been asked recently as to which apartment buildings have good sized two bedroom apartments in inner Brisbane. Not including the super luxury apartments (such as Riparian, or Coronation Residences (169 sqm)), the following list of Brisbane apartments gives some examples of larger two bedroom apartments (all including balcony, not including car park or storage rooms):

• Flow West End, 144 sqm
• Admiralty Towers, 129 sqm
• Quay West Brisbane, 128 sqm
• Waters Edge West End, a number of designs over 120 sqm
• Saville South Bank, 120 sqm
• Metro 21, 119 sqm
• Admiralty Two, 116 sqm
• Ciana Indooroopilly, 113 sqm to 132 sqm

There are others, and I would be happy to add to this list with more examples.

HiDef Aerial Photos of Brisbane 2011 Floods

NearMaps took hidef aerial photographs ("photomaps") of the 2011 Brisbane floods on 13 January 2011. Some examples:

• Tennyson Reach
• Parklands Sherwood
• Regatta area
• Encore and Fresh apartments at Toowong
• Macquarie Street, St Lucia
• Waters Edge and Flow
• SL8, Tempo and LeftBank
• Vue
• SouthBank
• Admiralty precinct

Brisbane Floods

With the flood water going down, the clean up is starting. Many Brisbane apartment buildings were impacted by the floods -- basement carparks full of water and mud; no electricity; residents evacuated.

Some of the buildings that have significant water in their basements include:

• Admiralty Towers
• Admiralty Two
• Admiralty Quays "we only had minor flooding in the lower level of the basement (about 50cm deep)"
• Riverplace
• Riparian (access tunnel to carparks - carparks are above ground level)
• Felix
• 212 Margaret
• Festival Towers
• River City
• Vue at Milton
• Water's Edge
• Flow
• SL8
• Parklands Sherwood
• Fresh Toowong
• Encore Toowong
• Arbour on Grey at South Bank
• Tennyson Reach
• Most apartments on the river at St Lucia
• the list goes on

Pradella writes about Parklands at Sherwood: "Sadly this site has experienced quite a lot of damage. The Outlook – which are the entertainment facilities has been completely submerged by water. The car park under Jacaranda and Brookline is also completely submerged. Whilst floodwaters did not reach the interior of the apartment buildings, it did however breach a number of houses and townhouses. The entire complex was evacuated late on Wednesday afternoon. Power has been cut and access to the property restricted."

and about Waters Edge:

"There has been significant damage to the pool and the grounds however the water from the river has NOT entered the building. The car park under the building has flooded, and all residents evacuated. Power has been cut."

Admiralty Towers has it status (current evacuated) on its website.

I am amazed that the Council allows buildings to be built with basements that flood, forcing loss of power and residents to be evacuated. See also this article.

I am not sure how the floods will impact property prices in Queensland. After the 1974 floods, the prices of impacted houses decreased for a period. There will be a shortage of rental accommodation, as many people are looking for places to live. Foreign press is reporting on its nationals being evacuated -- see for example, this article from Singapore and Malaysia -- and QUT and UQ were flooded, which will not be good news for those trying to attract foreign students to Brisbane.

On the positive side, it could have been much worse. Only one person died in Brisbane, and the flood levels were lower than initially expected.

Top End Heading Towards The Bottom

Here is evidence that, despite what real estate agents and developers tell you, the top end apartment market is not going great. Many people have overpaid in the past 4 years.

Apt 80 in Flow, at West End, now listed for $1,850,000. This is a massive 4 bedroom, 3.5 bathrooms, 4 car, riverview penthouse apartment. It is 272 sqm internal, and 370 sqm total floor space. It has been for sale for a while. It went to auction in March 2009 and did not sell. (It was purchased off-the-plan in 2006 for over $2.3M. I think a real estate agent's investment company purchased it, but am not sure. So with stamp duty and interest, a loss over well over half a million bucks!)

By comparison, Apt 23, on a lower floor (3rd floor -- partial river views) - 3 bedrooms, was listed for sale by the developer for $1.4M in November 2007.

Or the same developer, Pradella, was selling apartments off-the-plan in Waters Edge next door in May 2008 which are not as good for $1.9M to $2.2M (these are A1 and A2 apartments, 159 sqm, 3 bedrooms).

So you can see that prices being paid for expensive apartments have not held up. (Flow and Waters Edge and Riverpoint are not the greatest locations, looking west, in a semi-industrial area a long walk from any facilities. Infrastructure touted by developers 4 years ago has not arrived.)

If Flow has been a bad investment for some, what about a $4.5M capital loss. See this story.

Promised Infrastructure

I often visit off-the-plan sales offices for apartment projects, and I am often told about planned infrastructure. A new pedestrian bridge, or a new CityCat ferry stop, or a new bus route, or a new supermarket planned for a neighbouring or nearby site, or restaurants about to open. I go back a number of years later, and the planned infrastructure is still not there.

Sales agents often talk about stuff that will improve the area but that never actually eventuates. So be careful about such "promises". It is best to look at what the area is like now, because this is how the area may look for some time to come. Do not pay extra for future benefits that may never arrive. If they do arrive, then you will get some capital appreciation.

I walked around West End last night. A Saturday night. Boundary Street was alive and hoping. South Bank was busy and bustling. Montague Road was dead. It was dark and no people were around. Nothing was open. It is still a scary semi-industrial area. So be careful if buying into Flow, or Waters Edge, or Koko or Riverpoint. There is a lack of public transport, and it is a very isolated area. I would not walk home from the city at night to Flow or Riverpoint. The promises made by sales agents to me a number of years ago (new park, CityCat terminal, new coffee shops and restaurants opening, a new supermarket on Montague Road, a new bus route with regular buses for all the new residents) just did not eventuate. Still many light industrial uses and sheds for spray painters.

How can you tell if an apartment has quality finishes

I have been asked by a reader how to tell if an apartment was high quality finishes. Often, you can just tell by looking. Here are some signs that may give you a clue as to whether the developer did a quality job on the apartment:

Are all rooms air-conditioned, or just some rooms?

Central air-conditioning, or an air compressor on balcony (As described by a developer: "Split system air conditioning to living / dining and Bedroom 1 (condensor on balcony’s)")

Full central air, or just a day/night air conditioner (i.e., when air is on it the living room, it is off in the bedrooms)

A plasterboard ceiling with recessed lighting, or a "popcorn" ceilings (i.e., a sprayed finish on the concrete slab above) and oyster lighting (often described as "Texture paint finish to concrete soffit")

Underslung sink, or a sink that rests on the benchtop

900mm wide oven, or 600mm wide oven

1000mm wide space for fridge with water point, or 850mm wide space for fridge

Bathroom wall tiles to ceiling, or tiles only part of bathroom walls

2 pack polyurethane finish to cabinets, or laminate cabinets

Clear balcony balustrades v. concrete or metal balustrades

Ceiling height

Air conditioned common hallway

There are many other items, listed in the schedule of finishes for an off-the-plan apartment, that need careful studying.

Generally, if an apartment is listed as investor quality, this means it is of lower quality. Some buildings have apartments with different quality -- for example, a lower floor apartment may have lesser finishes than an apartment on a higher floor. In the Flow development, the apartments on one side of the building (the river side) have a higher quality finish than the apartments on the other side of the building (the city side). So take care!

Recent Apartment Sales in Brisbane City

Skyline - Apartment 344 - Level 34 - Two bedrooms - $600,000 (highest bid, did not sell, relisted at $650,000 and did not sell. Current owner paid $695,000)
Aurora - Apartment 439 - Level 43 - Two bedrooms - $460,000
Club Lodge - Apartment 51 - Two beds, two cars - $440,000
Vue - Apartment 2409 - Two beds - $445,000
River City - Apartment 3802 - Two beds - $403,220
Flow West End - Apartment 80 - Four beds - failed to sell at auction

Predictions for 2009

At the beginning of 2008, I made a number of predictions in this post.

The predictions were mostly wrong!

The Brisbane apartment market did not grow significantly in 2008, and took a minor step backwards. At present, there are fewer buyers and more sellers. For some off-the-plan developments, no sales have been made for months. Second tier buildings and buildings with more than 200 apartments have not done well.

So I will be careful with my predictions for 2009:

I still believe that quality inner city apartments in Brisbane will do well in 2009. Provided there is no significant unemployment and provided that foreign students continue to come to Brisbane, vacancy rates will remain low.

In 2008, only four new inner city apartment buildings completed and settled. These were Evolution (over priced), M on Mary (which has mostly 1 bedroom apartments, and the developer is now in liquidation), Flow at West End and Iceworks at Paddington. In 2009, no new large inner city apartments will settle. Groundwork has started on Mertion's Soleil and the Trilogy Tower project, but these will no complete until 2012. Mirvac's Tennyson Reach project will settle two buildings in 2009, and FKP's SL8 at West End will also probably complete in 2009. So not much new stock.

So here are some predictions for 2009:

• The price of a good quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane, with views, will range from $780,000 to $850,000.
• The price of an average quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane will struggle to pass $550,000.
• Average rent for an unfurnished 2 bedroom apartment will rise to $600 per week.
• Investors will return to the market, as interest rates are falling and rents are rising.
• There will be more action in the inner suburbs than in the city. Prices for quality apartments in areas such as Indooroopilly and Toowong (where there is a train station and regional shopping, close to education facilities) will boom. By the end on 2008, it will be hard to find a good quality 2 bedroom apartment in these areas for less than $600,000.

• The Gold Coast apartment market will tank even more. The Sunshine Coast apartment market will remain steady.

West End Unit Owners are Concerned

"WEST END: Riverside apartment dwellers are banding together in a bid to give their direction on the future shape of the community. More than 30 residents from the Flow, Koko, Leftbank and Tempo complexes have met to discuss the need to build a sense of community in the area. Regatta Apartments body corporate chairman Paul Rees said they hoped to build a liveable community, not only for apartment dwellers but the whole of West End.

“We’re planning a series of regular events to build community in our area and the first event will be a breakfast in Riverside Park on Sunday, December 7 at 9am,” Mr Rees said.

He said they invited local, state and federal representatives as well as community groups and property developers to attend the breakfast to hear their ideas. Among residents’ concerns are building heights, closing Riverside Drive to public traffic and fast-tracking plans for a CityCat terminal. And Mr Rees said residents felt they were not consulted about increasing building heights.

“We are appalled at the suggestions of 15, 20 and 30-storey highrises being built here,” he said.

“We moved into this area believing the height limit would be seven storeys and we don’t want to see our area turned into a concrete jungle,” Mr Rees said.

He said a CityCat terminal and a reliable bus service on Montague Rd were important to give residents adequate public transport. Mr Rees said they supported redevelopment of the old riverside industrial areas as long as it was on a “human scale” and integrated with the established community of West End, “rather than creating a concrete barrier between West End and the river”."

See City South News

Future Brisbane Apartment Developments

There is likely to be a shortage of apartments in Brisbane in the near future. (This statement assumes that that is not massive unemployment in Brisbane.) There are few developments under construction, and so very little new stock will come onto the market in the next three years. What new stock remains unsold is either overpriced or poor quality.

Downtown Apartments

• M on Mary - completed - mostly poor quality 1 bedroom apartments, mostly unsold. Developer has ceased sales campaign and is running this building as short term accommodation
• Evolution - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - small and overpriced
• Skyline - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - building surrounded by other buildings, and generally overpriced
• Aurora - completed
  
• Empire Square - cancelled
• Trilogy Tower - status uncertain - in presales, with planned completion in 2012 - both hotel rooms and expensive apartments
• Vision - status uncertain - in presales, with completion not before 2012
  
• Soleil Tower - soon to start presales - 403 apartments, with completion about 2011
• French Quarter - early days, no planning approval
  

Inner City

• Flow (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
  
• Koko (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• Tempo (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• IceWorks (Paddington) - almost complete - about 6 apartments remain unsold
  
• SL8 (West End) - under construction, with completion expected in April 2009, poor location
• Waters Edge (West End) - off-the-plan selling, overpriced and selling poorly, completion in 2010
• Ciana (Indooroopilly) - almost complete - about 25 out of 130 apartments remain unsold - good value
  
• Tennyson Reach - 2 buildings nearing completion, 1 building not far behind, 3 more buildings planned
• Newstead Waterfront - 2 buildings selling well off-the-plan
• The Mill at Albion - almost sold out, relatively expensive
• El Dorado Village - to be launched to the marketing in October 2008, completion likely in 2011
• Milton Union - received planning approval

Will Flow be Impacted by Waters Edge?

Flow, at West End, was developed by Pradella. Next door, Pradella is developing Waters Edge. It looks from this photo that Waters Edge will crowd out Flow and impact its views.

Flow West End

There is always a risk buying off the plan. Typically, that risk is off-set by getting a lower price -- i.e., buying at today's prices, but not having to pay until tomorrow.

That does not always hold true, if the initial pricing is too high. One example of an overpriced off the plan development was FKP's Vue, where a number of people appear to have sold recently for less than they paid off the plan.

Pradella is pricing its off-the-plan developments aggressively. One example is Flow at West End. Flow has been marketed off the plan for a number of years. Today's prices are about the same as one of the original price lists published over a year ago. A price list from 2006 is here. Settlement is in 4 weeks. There are some really nice apartments in Flow, and they are larger than normal. The better views are to the west, however.

This is one development where it looks like waiting until settlement (unless you got an insiders price or discount) would have been best in relation to price. However, most of the good apartments have sold, so waiting is not necessarily the best thing to do if that is where you would like to live!

Some Flow apartments listed for sale today (developer stock):

• Apt 31, 3 bed, 4th floor, river views $1,425,000 (price was $1,375,000)
• Apt 23, 3 bed, 3rd floor $1,405,000 (price was $1,380,000)
• Apt 57, 2 bed, 2rd floor $970,000 (price was $970,000)
• Apt 13, 2 bed, 1st floor $890,000 (price was $840,000)
• Apt 51, 2 bed, 1st floor $890,000 (price was $930,000)
• Apt 52, 3 bed, 1st floor $1,275,000 (price was $1,250,000)
• Apt 14, 2 bed, 1st floor, $695,000 (price was $685,000)

Pradella's New West End Development

Soon, Flow will be complete. Next door, Pradella will launch a new West End riverside development. I suspect it will be worth considering.

It does not have a name, but it does have a website.

Pradella will have developed three West End riverside complexes:

• Flow (to be completed in 2007) which looked extremely overpriced, but now just looks expensive; some apartments will be excellent (riverside on high floor) and some are not great
  
• New and unnamed
• LeftBank which is still looking very good
  

Stockland has Koko, which didn't live up to expectations.

And there is Riverpoint, currently selling off-the-plan, which looks very mixed.

I suspect there will be more to come.