Showing posts with label queensland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label queensland. Show all posts

Friday, October 17, 2014

Invest in Brisbane

This report suggests that Brisbane is the best place to invest in property at present.

"Overall, it’s a decent set of numbers with promising signs of strength in new home loans and construction – the desired “rebalancing” – but owner occupier activity has highlighted the possibility of softening almost everywhere except for Brisbane and Queensland."

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Queensland Coastal Apartments - Capital Losses

RP Data recently issued is "Coastal Housing Markets - December 2013" report.

"Across the Sunshine Coast, median house values are typically most expensive in the Noosa region and most affordable between Caloundra and Maroochydore. Sunshine Beach has the most expensive median house value ($894,733) and Currimundi the most affordable at $400,631.

Median house values across the Gold Coast and Tweed Coast tend to be most expensive at the northern end of the Gold Coast. Across the region, the most expensive houses are found in Surfers Paradise ($962,563) and the most affordable are in Labrador ($392,681)."

Medium value as at September 2013 for apartments:
Noosa Heads - $528,000
Maroochydore - $323,857
Mooloolaba - $358,380
Kings Beach - $367,888
Surfers Paradise - $337,767
Broadbeach - $401,824
Palm Cove - $336,795
Port Douglas - $251,312

Number of apartment sales:
Noosa Heads - 238
Maroochydore - 404
Mooloolaba - 234
Kings Beach - 124
Surfers Paradise - 1068
Broadbeach - 418
Palm Cove - 54
Port Douglas - 270

Change in value over past 5 years
Noosa Heads -  negative 23.3%
Maroochydore - negative 17%
Mooloolaba -  negative 5.2%
Kings Beach - negative 13.7%
Surfers Paradise - negative 15.4%
Broadbeach - negative 10.5%
Palm Cove - negative 21.5%
Port Douglas - negative 13.1%

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Is there a property bubble

Property Observer had a series of comments yesterday, as to whether there is a property bubble in Australia at present.  Queensland's market is not as hot as Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, a Gold Coast real estate agent told me today that he is waiting 12 months for the Gold Coast to follow Sydney and start to pick up -- until then, no price increases.  And there are no off-the-plan apartment projects being marketed in Surfers or Broadbeach, and no cranes on the Gold Coast skyline at present.  If anything, real estate prices and cost of living is already high in Queensland, and job growth looks uncertain.  So unless there is a sudden rush of investors from the Southern states or from Asia, or massive migration into Queensland, I can't see property prices increasing in Queensland any time soon.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

To buy or not to buy a Queensland Unit?

See here for a transcript of a conversation with property analysts, as to whether it is too risky to buy an apartment in Qld due to the changing strata laws and levy entitlements.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Lang Walker's View - No risk of housing bubble

From the AFR on 17 October, page 43:  A story about property developer and investor, Lang Walker.

"I saw that one of the guys from the Reserve Bank came out and was worried about a bubble.  He mustn't get out of his office.  We're definitely not at any risk of a bubble.  It's almost the opposition."

On page 23, it was reported that Bank of Queensland, which lends to many Queenslanders, increased its bad and doubtful debt write-offs.  An Deutsche Bank analyst is reported as saying: "It is clear that conditions in SE Qld remain challenging and we believe that the bad debt environment for the banks over the next 12-24 months is likely to deteriorate."

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Ten Percent Under Water in Queensland

"Ten percent of Queensland homes are currently worth less than or equal to their purchase price while 36 percent are worth more than double the purchase price.  At the same time a year ago, 5.3 percent of homes were worth less than or equal to their purchase price and 39.3 percent of homes were worth more than double their purchase price.  These results highlight the growing impact of the continued underperformance of the Queensland housing market."

From RP Data Accumulation Report, June 2012 Quarter (Report released September 2012)

Brisbane is slightly better than the Queensland statistics.


Monday, July 30, 2012

Value Accumulation by major Queensland regions

Across Queensland, 9.6 percent of homes are worth less than or equal to their initial purchase price while 36.6 percent of homes are worth more than double their initial purchase price. At the end of the corresponding quarter in 2011, 3.7 percent of homes were worth less than or equal to their initial purchase price and 40.3 percent of homes were worth more than double. These results highlight the growing impact of the continued underperformance of the Queensland housing market.

Source:  RP Data


Sunday, July 15, 2012

Population Growth

Population growth often leads to property price growth.  Statistics from the 2011 census were released recently, and show the population growth for Queensland.  The question is whether this growth will continue, and at what rate.

The official population estimates show that Australia's population was a little under 4.5 million people in 1911 and by 2011 there were 22.3 million people.

The Commonwealth Censuses have also tracked the growth and development of the states and territories that make up the Commonwealth of Australia, as well as recording the distribution of the population between them.  In the 100 years between 1911 and 2011, population growth for the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria, has largely tracked that of the national population.  Both Western Australia and Queensland had relatively consistent shares of the national population until the 1960s and 1970s, when substantial expansion of the economies in both states began to occur, supported at least in part by mining development. Since 1911, Queensland's share of the national population has grown by 6.3 percentage points, while the population share for Western Australia grew by 4.1 percentage points.

See ABS



Thursday, May 3, 2012

Genworth Says Queensland is a Problem

U.S. mortgage insurer, Genworth, that has operations in Australia, released a report yesterday to Wall Street regarding its Australian residential mortgage insurance business.  See report here.  The report says that its overall performance by geography is solid, with the exception being Queensland.

Coastal Queensland is particularly pressured.  Delinquency development in coastal Queensland has risen to 1.13%, compared with 0.8% for Queensland and 0.54% across its loan insurance portfolio.  The peak to trough decline in values is 17% for FN Qld, 12% for Sunshine Coast, 15% for the Gold Coast and 8% for the rest of Queensland.  The average mortgage insurance claim in coastal Queensland has risen to over $120,000.  This is significant enough to report to Wall Street.  See article here.  And note this article.



Friday, January 20, 2012

Home Equity

A summary from the recent September 2011 Quarter RP Data home equity report.

The highlights of the report are:
  • Over the five years to September 2011, capital city home values increased by around 28 per cent.
  •  Australian housing markets recorded value declines recently with capital city home values down 3.3 per cent from their October 2010 peak to September 2011.
  • Properties in Queensland and South Australia have higher turnover rates; therefore equity levels in these states tend to be lower than in other states.
  • Far North Queensland & the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have the highest instances of negative equity at 20.2%, 14.0% and 13.5% respectively. 
  • The highest proportion of homes that are now worth at least double their initial purchase price is typically either regional and non-coastal, or capital city markets. 
  • Capital cities have enjoyed long-term value appreciation and have proven to be less susceptible to ongoing value falls than certain non-capital city markets.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Housing Shortfall in Queensland?

"Australia's housing shortfall is expected to blow out to more than 640,000 in 20 years, prompting industry calls for tax cuts and other measures to stop prices going through the roof.

The gap between demand and supply increased by 28,200 to 186,800 housing units this year, a National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) report reveals.

The annual report on the state of supply shows NSW and Queensland had the largest shortfalls of 73,700 and 61,900, respectively."

See Business Spectator

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Risks of Buying Off the Plan

Property commentator Michael Matusik published some articles recently about the risks of buying of the plan.  See:
Risks 1 to 3
Follow Up Comments

For a more detailed analysis, see the recently published Kindle Book: Buying An Apartment Off The Plan in Queensland - A Guide For Successful Buying.  
This book can be downloaded to a Kindle, iPhone, iPad or computer.  The cost is less than $10, so good value if you are planning on spending money on an apartment in Queensland.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Buying Off The Plan

If you are buying an apartment off the plan in Queensland, whether in Brisbane or on the coast, you want to make sure that you buy the right apartment for you, at the right price.  At present, there are some great off the plan developments at reasonable prices, and there are others that are not so good or are overpriced. Why buying off the plan, get the right advice first.  Buy the ebook from Amazon Buying An Apartment Off The Plan in Queensland - A Guide For Successful Buying.


Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Discounting is rife

"Discounting was rife across the state, many vendors being forced to accept offers far lower than they would have last year, Mr Christopher said."Put simply, house prices are falling. The figures can't be disputed by real estate optimists any longer," he said.

"Buyers are now well aware of this and are, as they should be, taking full advantage of the situation by offering well below the asking price of a property.

"Vendors are always the last to know and it seems that many have not caught on yet. They are still personally affronted at the offers being made to them but the reality is, if they don't take today's offers, they risk getting even lower ones in a few months' time."

Mr Christopher said the magnitude of the decline differed in each region of Queensland: some areas were suffering a marginal decline, others an acute drop. He listed the Gold and Sunshine Coasts as the worst hit in the state. Property prices in both regions were predicted to drop by almost 25 per cent by the end of the year."

Source: Fairfax's Domain

Saturday, May 21, 2011

House Sales Down

An REIQ report says that house sales are down. This report is for houses (not apartments). See Courier Mail. From the REIQ press release:

The natural disasters earlier this year, coupled with the higher interest rate environment, resulted in a weaker March quarter for residential property, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ). The impact of the Queensland floods was keenly felt in affected Brisbane suburbs over the period with many suburbs not recording enough preliminary sales for a reliable median house price to be calculated.


The REIQ’s March quarter median house price report found that out of about 50 Brisbane suburbs reportedly flood-affected, only 17 recorded a minimum of 10 preliminary sales to allow a median house price to be calculated. The biggest drops in preliminary sales occurred in Moorooka, Graceville and Kenmore when compared to the December quarter last year.


“Many would-be sellers in these areas have wisely either taken their homes off the market – even if they were not flooded – or decided they will ride out any market reaction to properties in flood-affected areas,” REIQ chairman Pamela Bennett said. “While some affected Brisbane suburbs did record a drop in preliminary sales, a number of others that were partially flooded continued to record steady sales over the quarter, which is a testament to the continued desirability of living in locations such as New Farm and West End. About 75 per cent of Brisbane was not affected by the floods and these areas are continuing to record steady sales and results.”


Over the March quarter, the Queensland property market remained soft with sales numbers down about 14 per cent compared to the December quarter last year.


The Brisbane median house price decreased 1.9 per cent to $515,000 over the quarter. Preliminary sales numbers were down about 15 per cent on the previous quarter.


The Gold Coast’s median house price remained steady at $490,000 over the quarter and was also one of the few areas across the state to record a stable number of preliminary sales.


“The majority of Queensland is still very much a buyer’s market,” Ms Bennett said.



Thursday, April 21, 2011

Migration to Queensland

Bernard Salt from KPMG has a very interesting article in The Australian today. It says that interstate migration to Queensland is slowing. But this decline has been offset by international migration to Queensland and a higher birth rate. According to Salt, this means that the rental market will be good but the residential sales market will be adversely impacted in the short term. An extract:

"This time around, super is looking sick and older workers believe there's better value in working longer. The upshot is a diminution in interstate migration outflows and inflows.

This has affected the demand for property in states such as Queensland and Western Australia, where the economy and property industry have been geared around interstate-migration-supported growth. Take away interstate migration and these states are impacted, Western Australia less so than Queensland because of the mining boom.

But how long will this trend last? The answer is both simple and complex.

The slowdown in interstate migration to Queensland will last for as long as people have diminished confidence in their ability to achieve the shift. There needs to be time and positive consumer and workplace sentiment between the GFC and the recovery.

I'd suggest that, all else being equal, that timeframe would be three to four years, which means that recovery might not arrive until mid next year. But "demographic recovery" for Queensland could also be tempered by the floods and Cyclone Yasi as well as by further changes in policy settings coming out of Canberra.

And then there is the issue of negative media sentiment, which will continue for as long as the ABS reports show demographic decline."

Full story here. It is worth reading.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

"Chinese love the Sunshine State"

Story from the AFR on Friday last week -- "Chinese love the Sunshine State". The article states: "Half a dozen significant high-rise properties on the Gold Coast and Brisbane, which are believed to have secured a significant proportion of foreign investors, are due to settle in the next 12 months."

See also Gold Coast Bulliten

Friday, January 8, 2010

Google Search - Shows Less Interest in Real Estate

Google Insights allows you to examine what people search for on Google. In the real estate category, Google shows that searches are down for 2009, particularly in December 2009. (Google shows that the peak month for searches for real estate in Queensland and Australia are January followed by September). December 2009 was worst on record.