Thursday, April 21, 2011

Migration to Queensland

Bernard Salt from KPMG has a very interesting article in The Australian today. It says that interstate migration to Queensland is slowing. But this decline has been offset by international migration to Queensland and a higher birth rate. According to Salt, this means that the rental market will be good but the residential sales market will be adversely impacted in the short term. An extract:

"This time around, super is looking sick and older workers believe there's better value in working longer. The upshot is a diminution in interstate migration outflows and inflows.

This has affected the demand for property in states such as Queensland and Western Australia, where the economy and property industry have been geared around interstate-migration-supported growth. Take away interstate migration and these states are impacted, Western Australia less so than Queensland because of the mining boom.

But how long will this trend last? The answer is both simple and complex.

The slowdown in interstate migration to Queensland will last for as long as people have diminished confidence in their ability to achieve the shift. There needs to be time and positive consumer and workplace sentiment between the GFC and the recovery.

I'd suggest that, all else being equal, that timeframe would be three to four years, which means that recovery might not arrive until mid next year. But "demographic recovery" for Queensland could also be tempered by the floods and Cyclone Yasi as well as by further changes in policy settings coming out of Canberra.

And then there is the issue of negative media sentiment, which will continue for as long as the ABS reports show demographic decline."

Full story here. It is worth reading.

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