Vacancy Rate of Brisbane Apartments

The vacancy rate of inner city Brisbane property has increased to above 4%.  This is regarded as being unhealthy for landlords.  Rents are decreasing - and tenants are asking for rent reductions on renewals.

See http://www.beesnees.com.au/2018/02/brisbanes-rental-vacancy-rate-4/

Student "Apartments"

There is a social media advertising campaign underway for Atira Student Living in South Brisbane.  The rooms are extremely small:

• 16 sqm for a studio
• 21 sqm for a twin studio
• 33 sqm for a 2 bedroom apartment
• 55 sqm for a 3 bedroom apartment.

A typical apartment bedroom (4m x 3m) is 12 sqm.  A typical hotel room is about 33 sqm.  A small two bedroom apartment in a low quality complex is about 75 sqm.   There are many two bedroom apartments in Brisbane that are 110 sqm and larger.  These Atria rooms are small.  And they are charging more than $460 per week for a studio.  (A furnished one bedroom that is 72 sqm in a good location is about $550.)

Students are best advised to look at regular apartments on realestate.com.au and compare against student apartments before renting.

Is it better to rent or buy?

Here is a comparison of two similar apartments in a Brisbane inner suburb, in the same complex, with each apartment being side by side.  These are good apartments, two bedrooms, two bathrooms, each 119 sqm total size, in a complex with a pool and gym.  Both were sold for similar prices.

Apartment A - owner occupant
Price - $465,000 plus stamp duty $7,500 approx.
Repairs and improvements before moving in - approx $8,000
Monthly costs
Loan repayment - $2,500 a month
Rates - $107 a month
Water - $98 a month
Body Corp - $375 a month
Insurance - $20 a month
Total - $3,100 a month

Apartment B - rental
Price -$450,000 plus stamp duty $14,100 approx.
Rent per month - $2,210 per month

Thus, the renter is $890 a month or $10,680 a year better off, and had no capital outlays, and does not have to pay for repairs and improvements (usually another $100 a month on average).  The renter can easily move to another location if work needs to take the renter there.

Another way to look at this is that the weekly rent should be $715 a week to cover all costs that are included in the rent.  But the rent is only $510 a week.  The landlord is subsiding the tenant to the tune of $200 a week.

Brisbane Rental Yields

The resale market for apartments in Brisbane at present is slow.  There are bargains if you are buying, and it is taking a long time to sell if you are a seller, and often the seller is disappointed with the sales price. 

At present, for apartments in Brisbane that are being sold resale (that is, not by the developer off the plan), the sales prices are decreasing.  Rents are also decreasing, as there is an oversupply.  This is a generalisation, and does not apply to all apartment types or all areas.

I have recently studied the Indooroopilly area.  The gross rental yields are good.  For reasonable quality 2 bedroom apartments, prices have dropped about 10 to 15%.  So apartment that were selling for $485K to $530K last year are now selling in the range of $425K to $500K, with most sales being about $450K to $465K.  Some vendors are selling for more than $100,000 less than what they paid.  The rents for these apartments have dropped from a range of $520 to $560 a week to $480 to $510 a week.  New developments with smaller but modern apartments are doing promotions such as 4 weeks free rent.  On an apartment that I own in Indooroopilly, I am getting a gross yield of 5.7% , where the lease was signed last week.  

Small city apartments are struggling, esp those that are rented in short term rental pools.  I have seen one apartment building in an Accor rental pool where net returns (after rates and body corporates etc) on large one bedroom furnished apartments have dropped from $13,000 a year to less than $5,000 a year. 

Brisbane real estate agents say "sell now!"

I receive many newsletters and emails from real estate agents in Brisbane, especially those who specialise in Brisbane apartment resales.  All are advising that now is the time to sell, not the time to buy.  Some examples:

Position Property, Brad Munro:, Autumn 2016 newsletter

• "There is no denying that there are concerns over just how many apartments are being built across Brisbane."
• "The concern I have is that many of these developments are being sold anywhere from 80% to 100% to inventors.  Many of these buildings have 200-300 or more apartments -- there needs to be a lot of tenants to fill them all."
• "Rental prices will decrease which then affects the investment return for the investor.  Even now, with only a limited number of these developments being finished, the rental prices are down from what the investor was promised.  I believe there is more pain to come."
• "There are fewer buyers in the market."
• "I am really concerned as to what the next 3 years has in store."
• "I have no doubt that selling in the next 6 months is going to achieve a better result than waiting until next year."

Tessa Residential CBD Market Overview

• "We anticipate a stable and consistent market place in 2016..."
• Oversupply "is a reality throughout suburbs such as Newstead, Bowen Hills, South Brisbane and West End and as a result is having an impact on the rental market with rents across the City starting to soften."
• "We believe 2016 will represent the optimum time for sellers who are considering cashing in on the improved market, which has continued to grow since June 2013."

So sell now if you are thinking of selling in the next 3 years, but don't buy now -- wait till next year!

Glut of one bedroom apartments?

Many of the new apartment buildings have a large number of small one bedroom apartments, that have been sold to investors.  These investors are hoping to rent them.  In the past, a one bedroom apartment gives a good rental return relative to purchase price.

However, at present, there is a problem.  There are too many one bedroom apartments.  Owner-occupiers prefer two bedroom  (or larger) apartments or houses.  There is less demand for short term rentals at present, where a one bedroom apartment was a good alternative to a hotel room.  And most young Brisbane renters prefer to share and rent large apartments or houses.

Some one bedrooms are sold without a car park, making them even less attractive.  In my view, a one bed with no car that is 60sqm or less in size is worth about $310,000.

If rents go down, which they will, then capital values will fall.

There may be one exception here.  Some of the riverfront older apartments, which have larger apartments (e.g. a one bedroom over 70sqm) seem to be holding up well.  See for example this apartment and this apartment in Admiralty Towers

Has the Brisbane new apartment crash started?

On 10 March, the AFR reported that there will be a "very messy end" to the apartment boom.  See AFR story here.  It says:

""In Melbourne the oversupply will be significant, in Brisbane it will be worse. It is an accident waiting to happen," said BIS-Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor at the group's six-monthly Building Forecasting Conference."

Has the end already started?

Let's look at a recent apartment project in Brisbane, that recently completed -- The Milton at 55 Railway Terrace, Milton.  Some examples of the disaster there:

• Apartment 1302 is listed for sale for 10% below in the initial price, at $365,000.  For a one bedroom apartment, looking West, which has a 55 sqm internal floor space, and a main bedroom that is only 3m by 3m, and no car space, $365,000 is expensive.  Rent is estimated by the selling agent to be $450 to $460 per week unfurnished, which seems to be optimistic.
• Apartment 2901 - one bedroom, is not even listed at a price -- "make an offer"
• Apartment 2709, which is four bedrooms, if it sells at all, will sell for a huge amount less than the current owner has paid
• Apartment 2005 is listed at $1.1M, which is very high for a 3 bedroom apartment in Brisbane that is only 123 sqm -- you can buy luxury two bedroom apartments elsewhere that are this size and at a lower price, and it only has a narrow tandem carpark
• Apartment 2311, is not listed with a price
• Apt 2609 is two bedrooms, "bring me offers"
• Apartment 3008, a top floor two bedroom, 91 sqm in total, is listed unpriced
• Apartment 3009, also a top floor two bedroom, is listed for $849,000 -- are they dreaming?
• Apartment 2511, 2 bedrooms, listed at $659,000 is said to be under offer
• Apartment 2007, 1 bedroom, is listed at $490,000
• Apt 502, 2 bedroom, 74 sqm internal, is listed at $499,000
• The list goes on.

The onsite agents, Mint Residential, have a large number of apartments for rent.  And so do offsite agents.  The following are rent ranges, depending on floor, car parking etc:

• 3 bedrooms, from $650 per week to $800 per week
• 2 bedrooms, from $570 per week to $720 per week
• 1 bedrooms, from $370 per week to $490 per week
• A fully furnished two bedroom is listed at $640 per week
• Some apartments have 4 weeks free rent, which (for example) in effect reduces the rent per week of a $500 a week apartment to $460 a week over a yearly lease.

The Milton won my award for the wildest advertising claims of 2010.  See this prior post.  In that post, I said:  "They have a sheet of paper showing investment returns for a 2 bed, 1 bath apartment listed at $650,000. The prediction is that this apartment will be worth $807,500 on completion of the project in 2013, and will be worth over $1M by 2016. The predicted rent is over $720 a week in 2013."

As can be seen from the above, this was in fact wildly inaccurate.  

The Milton has a host of problems, not simply that it was sold for prices that are way above market price.  The development is on a train line, with half the apartments looking west and close to a brewery.  The river views are distant, and will be blocked by construction of apartments in front.  Body corporate for a 2 bedroom is about $4,800 a year.  See comments in prior posts.  It is very dangerous buying off the plan in Brisbane.

Compare the above to a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1 car apartment, 106 sqm, with direct river views, for $700,000.

If The Milton is representative, then we are in for a very rough ride.

Response to Reader Comment regarding quality Brisbane apartments

A reader recently posted this comment, in relation to my post below:

"... you are certainly correct that there is a lot of stock under construction that will settle through the end of this year and next. However, with few exceptions most of this is small 1bd and 2bd "investor" stock targeted at the rental market. As you said, this is already leading to increases in vacancy rates and lower rents - at present, this is probably just a return to normal but it will probably over-correct and the rents/vacancy for small 1bd and 2bd stock will be worse than long term trend levels. That said, why do you see this impacting on quality owner occupier buildings such as admiralty, quay west?? The investor stock being constructed at present is vastly different to the owner occupier stock and I doubt there are many occupiers out there tossing up between admiralty and meriton's soleil. I feel the two markets will diverge and the the limited amount of quality owner occupier stock will lead to growth in this market. Do you not agree?"

This is my response.  The over-supply in Brisbane is having an impact on the rental market for the high quality, owner occupied buildings.  Note that many these buildings still have more than 40% of the apartments rented out, usually to long term tenants.  For example, in Admiralty Towers, large three bedroom apartments that rented for about $1,400 a week at the top of the rental market boom are now renting for less than $1,000 a week.  An excellent large one bedroom apartment with river views, fully furnished, has been vacant for months, at an asking rent of less than $600 a week.  This apartment would have rented quickly at about $640 a week two years ago.  For some reason, some tenants prefer smaller apartments in newer buildings.

The rental market in quality buildings is being impacted by a number of factors, and not just new apartments being completed.  These factors include:

• the end of the mining boom, so less executive rentals
• a rental boom, that probably caused rents to increase too much
• short term rental apartments not achieving good returns, and so these are re-entering the long term rental market
• lower population growth
• no income growth
• younger people having different views as to what is a trendy apartment
• more choice in more inner city locations

Prices seem to be holding up at present, partly because interest rates are so low.  I recently locked in an investor loan fixed for 3 years at 4.09%.  Even at a reduced rent, this property is cash flow positive today.  So why sell?

I agree that owner-occupiers still have little choice for quality apartments in Brisbane.  If you are looking for a large two or three bedroom apartment in a quality building in a good location, there is still not much choice.  Very few of the new buildings would be suitable if you are looking for a long term residence.

Prediction that Brisbane Rents will not fall

"Brisbane's booming inner-city apartment construction market has led many to speculate a fall in rental prices could ensue in late 2015 as the market is flooded.  However, Dr Wilson said that in Melbourne, where there have been record levels of inner-city apartment developments, rents have continued to increase, which could bode well for Brisbane investors, though not so much for renters."

See Brisbane Times

Capital city dwelling values rise 9% over past 12 months but capital losses in May

From RP Data:

Today's results revealed the pace of home value growth stalled in May with dwelling values down 0.9% over the month.  After an increase in dwelling values of 3.8 per cent over the first four months of the year, the May CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results out today recorded a drop of 0.9 per cent for the month across the combined capitals index; the first month-on-month fall since November last year.

Mr Lawless said, "Over the past three years, dwelling values have risen more than three times as fast as rents. Dwelling values are 24.2 per cent higher across the combined capitals over the past three years while weekly rents have risen by only 7.2 per cent. The net result is that gross rental yields have been compressed from 4.3 per cent back in 2012 to the current average gross yield of 3.7 per cent across the combined capital city index," he said.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 May 2015):

May 2015 - up 0.1%

Quarter - up 1.4%

Year to Date - up 1.7%
Year on Year - up 2%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $393,500

Leave Your Money in the Bank

"The latest research shows that only 10% of sales in the Brisbane inner-city unit market are to owner-occupiers. Investors are buying 90% of the stock and the great majority of them are distant investors – people from interstate and overseas. Many will wish they had left their money in the bank.

Vacancies in Brisbane’s inner-city suburbs range from 4% or 6.5% - and that’s before all the new supply now under construction hits the rental market. BIS Shrapnel research shows that a record number of new apartments will be completed this year, but more will be finished next year and even more the year after. These numbers are a red flag for sensible buyers.

Brisbane, like Melbourne and the Gold Coast, is building far too many apartments because they’re not being created for local consumption – they’re being conceived for sale to unsuspecting foreign buyers."

See Terry Ryder: Better in the bank than on Brisbane inner-city apartments

When we abandon traditional underwriting standards

"The regulators believe that lower loan underwriting standards promote homeownership and make mortgages and homes more affordable. The facts, however, show that the opposite is true. ...

After the financial crisis, Representative Barney Frank — the Massachusetts Democrat who led the House Financial Services Committee during the crisis, and a champion of credit programs for low-income buyers — admitted, “It was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it.” Policy makers who support homeownership would be wise to consider who is hurt and who is helped when we abandon traditional underwriting standards."

See:  Underwriting the Next Housing Crisis

My view is that government policy that encourages people to buy rather than rent often leads to poor results.

Brisbane rental market

From an REIQ press release that was issued today:

Rental markets remain tight in southeast Queensland and the state’s major tourism centres according to the latest REIQ Residential Rental Survey, conducted at the end of September.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said the survey showed vacancy rates remained relatively steady across most parts of the state, with improvements in some key regional markets.  Ms Mercorella said only four of the 16 major regions in Queensland recorded a significant change in vacancy rates, with something of a two-tier affect still evident in the State’s rental market.

Ms Mercorella said at the end of September, the Brisbane City local government area (LGA) recorded a vacancy rate of 2.3 per cent, relatively unchanged since the end of June.

“Brisbane’s middle to outer suburbs – those 5-to-20km from the CBD - recorded a slight easing in vacancy levels, up 0.2 percentage points to two per cent at the end of September.  The city’s inner suburbs, on the other hand, recorded a vacancy level of 2.9 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent at the end of June.  Median weekly rents from the Residential Tenancy Authority (RTA) for the September quarter show relatively steady rents across the Brisbane City LGA.”

Ms Mercorella said Queensland’s tourism centres continued to record tight rental conditions.

“On the Sunshine Coast, the vacancy rate is at one per cent, the lowest of any major region in the state,” she said.  “Population growth and a lack of investor activity are contributing to these tight conditions, particularly in hinterland areas where agents are struggling to find enough rental properties to meet demand.

Ray White Market Update for Brisbane City apartments

From Ray White CBD:

"The third quarter has seen prices remain stable after the growth of the first two quarters on 2014. Falling rents across the inner city in the last two months have halted price growth as large developments in nearby suburbs such as South Brisbane, Bowen Hills and Fortitude Valley have been completed. This has resulted in an over supply of rental accommodation causing rents to plunge.  With over 8,000 apartments approved for the city's inner suburbs rents look certain to remain soft for the next few years.

Michael Matusik released an article on his Linkedin page this week on the rental situation that has seen the rents for 1 bedroom units drop by $60 a week in recent months and 2 bedroom units drop by over $100 a week. https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20141019231540-170298265-brisbane-inner-city-apartments and following is a recent article in The Courier Mail http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/experts-say-outlook-is-not-pretty-as-fundamentals-in-inner-city-apartment-market-are-weakening/story-fnihsps3-1227024827411 

With the outlook for rents continuing to fall next year as more and more buildings are completed, it is doubtful prices will remain at their current levels.  Should you be considering selling, now is the time to do so."

Sounds like Ray White is saying now is not a good time to buy a Brisbane apartment.  Prices to fall!

Rental Report

RP Data has recently released its quarterly rental review.  It shows that Brisbane apartment rents are flat.  My sources tell me that rents are declining.

• Vacancy rates are longer.  My rough rule of thumb is that for every week a property is vacant, that is approximately $10 a week off the rent for a one year period.
• Rental periods (e.g. 1 year, 6 months) are tending to be shorter, with tenants turning over more often
• Actual rents are flat, or decreasing slightly.
• New apartment buildings that have many empty apartments are offering rent free periods, which in effect is a rent reduction.  For example, if the weekly rent is $500 a week, but the landlord offers four weeks for free, then the effective rent for the year is $461 a week.  But the RP Data report will show the rent as $500 a week.

Buy or Rent?

The AFR recently had an article on whether you are better off renting or buying property.  See article here.

For many people, I believe that renting is better than buying.  These are my reasons:

• known fixed cost per week for renters
• no cost for repairs, rates, property insurance or body corporate fees for rentals
• flexibility and mobility for renters - too many times have I seen people stuck in a property type or location that they don't want any more.  Ownership also makes it harder to move to where better jobs are located.
• purchasing property is for the long term (that is, seven years or more), and many people should not be committing to a property type or location for that period of time
• entry and exit costs are high for purchasing (i.e., stamp duty and agent's commission)
• you get a better property if you rent compared with buying, all outgoings and costs being equal (another way to say this is that most landlords are making a loss, or negatively gearing, and so you are better off than your landlord)
• currently many good choices for renters, and competition by landlords is high
• owners spend more time and effort wasting time and money on repairs, improvements, renovations and gardens, which are rarely recovered on sale; renters have more leisure time

Oversupply of Brisbane Units

There have been a number of articles this year regarding an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane, especially new high-rise in areas close to the city.  A large number of apartment buildings have completed recently, but there are many more on the way.  Most of the new apartments are being sold to foreign investors, and will be rented.

At present, a higher than usual number of apartments are available for rent in Brisbane.  Agents are reporting that it is taking a long time to rent apartments, and that rents are falling.  For example, a very nice riverfront apartment was without a tenant for 4 weeks, and finally rented for $50 a week below the asking rent.  Some owners are offering 4 weeks free rent.  For third-tier apartments, the rents have dropped dramatically.  The situation is not likely to improve any time soon.

When the foreign investors come to sell, they will not be able to sell to other foreigners.  So the pool of potential buyers will be much smaller.  This will cause significant price decreases for resales of apartments.  Currently, many apartments that are not being sold by developers (i.e., not new apartments that have FIRB approval) are taking a long time to sell in Brisbane.

Some articles of note:
Bubble Deflating
Warning on Brisbane apartment boom
Not pretty
High-rise Oversupply?
Prices Down Due to Oversupply
Areas to Avoid
Yield Compression
Mixed Outlook
Prices Plunge

Spice Apartments at South Brisbane

The Spice Apartments development at South Brisbane is currently being sold off-the-plan.  According to the agents selling these apartments, most have sold.

It is a 14 level development, with two towers sharing a common podium.  The complex overlooks the onramp and tolling infrastructure for the Go-Between Bridge.  It is river front, sort of, with trees and and bikeway between the apartments and the river.  Many of the apartments will have no views, or will only have views of a busy road or industrial buildings (that will probably get redeveloped into apartment or office towers.)  Any city views are likely to be built out.

Example prices:

• One bedroom on level 2 with car space, 54 sqm internal, with balcony and court yard, so total 78 sqm.  No view.  $429,000.
• One bed, one bath, level 2, 49 sqm internal, with balcony and court yard, total 77 sqm, $420,000.
• Two bed, one bath, 1 car, level 12, internal - 63 sqm, total 76 sqm, one bedroom is internal with no windows (so this is really a one bed plus study) - $526,000
• Two bed, two bath, 1 car, level 3, internal - 83 sqm, total 101 sqm - $585,000

In my opinion, these are expensive prices for small apartments that are in a poor location.  Even though only 15 minutes walk to the city, there is not much currently in this area.  It is a long walk to South Bank, even though the sale brochure for the development has lots of South Bank photos.

The body corp fees for the first year are low, around the $3,000 a year mark.  My guess is that these are likely to increase substantially in subsequent years.

Rents for unfurnished apartments are provided by the developer:

• 1 bed - $410 to $480 a week
• 2 bed, 2 bath - $550 to $640 a week
• 3 bed, 2 bath - $850 to $950 a week.

It will be interesting to see if these rents are actually achieved.  You can rent a 110 sqm two bed, two bath apartment at South Bank, with river and park views, fully furnished for $690, so it is hard to see how these rents are possible.

Before buying, I would suggest looking at Vue Apartments, which are diagonally opposite the bridge and river.  Compare actual sales prices and actual rents for similar apartments, and look at this building's financial performance.

Rental Pain

The Courier Mail has an article today about potential pain for rental property owners.  "A flood of new apartments being built in Brisbane spells bad news for property investors as rents are likely to soften in the competitive market.  New data from Urbis shows nearly 9000 new apartments will settle in Brisbane between now and 2017."  Confusingly, the article states that not all planned apartments will be built (so how could Urbis predict settlement of such apartments?).  Urbis goes on to say "So we are being cautious about predicting too much supply."

According to the article, Brisbane's inner north is by far the busiest precinct, with 1129 apartments predicted to settle in 2014 and a further 926 apartments next year.  It is claimed that 41% of apartments sold int he inner north in the June quarter were one bedroom apartments.

In my view, one must be careful to generalise here.  There may be many new apartments in certain areas, such as Bowen Hills, but few new apartments in other areas, such as downtown Brisbane or St Lucia.  There may be too many small apartments, and not enough 3 bedroom apartments.  So the oversupply may impact some and not others.

I would be careful buying in the Brisbane Showgrounds redevelopment area.  Although reasonably close to the city and the RBH hospital, there is not much within walking distance.  And there is a huge supply pipeline.  This weekend, Lendlease will release The Yards, the next stage of this redevelopment.  The development does not include any large parks, schools, kindergartens, supermarkets or the like.

Brisbane Apartment Prices Down Slightly in August

From RP Data's months report for August 2014:

According to today’s results, with rental rates rising at a slower pace than dwelling values RP Data expects to see a compression in rental yields across each of the capital cities. The only regions where yields have moved higher over the past 12 months have been across the Adelaide and Hobart apartment markets.

Across the combined capital cities, the typical gross yield on a house has reduced from 4.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent over the past twelve months. Mr Lawless said the most significant yield compression is taking place in Sydney and Melbourne.

Investors are currently comprising their largest proportion of new mortgage commitments since late 2003. In fact, investor loan commitments have accounted for more than 38 per cent of all mortgage lending for nine consecutive months, the longest period ever that investment lending has held above that level.

“Investors are mostly concentrated across the Sydney and Melbourne apartment markets where capital gains have been strong but yields have been pushed very low. Potentially there are better investment returns to be had in the smaller capital cities where the growth trend is less mature and yields are also healthier.” Mr Lawless said.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 August 2014):

August 2014 - down 0.5%

Quarter - up 1.6%

Year to Date - up 2.6%
Year on Year - up 5.6%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $389,250