Flood Update

When driving down Coronation Drive tonight (Monday), some apartment buildings were dark and empty. This included Coronation Residences. Koko apartments at West End were dark, but I understand only the basement was flooded. (Update: As at Australia Day, Koko Apartments were still evacuated; and Pradella's Left Bank carpark was still closed.)

Koko video one, two and river

Promised Infrastructure

I often visit off-the-plan sales offices for apartment projects, and I am often told about planned infrastructure. A new pedestrian bridge, or a new CityCat ferry stop, or a new bus route, or a new supermarket planned for a neighbouring or nearby site, or restaurants about to open. I go back a number of years later, and the planned infrastructure is still not there.

Sales agents often talk about stuff that will improve the area but that never actually eventuates. So be careful about such "promises". It is best to look at what the area is like now, because this is how the area may look for some time to come. Do not pay extra for future benefits that may never arrive. If they do arrive, then you will get some capital appreciation.

I walked around West End last night. A Saturday night. Boundary Street was alive and hoping. South Bank was busy and bustling. Montague Road was dead. It was dark and no people were around. Nothing was open. It is still a scary semi-industrial area. So be careful if buying into Flow, or Waters Edge, or Koko or Riverpoint. There is a lack of public transport, and it is a very isolated area. I would not walk home from the city at night to Flow or Riverpoint. The promises made by sales agents to me a number of years ago (new park, CityCat terminal, new coffee shops and restaurants opening, a new supermarket on Montague Road, a new bus route with regular buses for all the new residents) just did not eventuate. Still many light industrial uses and sheds for spray painters.

Wave or Montague West End

Some more details about Wave West End which may have been renamed Montague.

See Development website. It is located behind Stockland's Koko.

A West End Love Story, in Brisbane

There is a very fancy website for Montague at West End. It is located behind Stockland's Koko.

See http://montaguebrisbane.com.au/. I think this was once called "The Wave". The development has a large number of very small apartments. Pricing starting from $290,000. Developed by Mirae Queensland Pty Ltd.

The Wave, West End

A Korean developer called Mirae Queensland Pty Ltd is in the final steps of obtaining development approval for an apartment complex at West End, just behind Stockland's Koko project. The development is called "The Wave" and is located at 321 Montague Street, West End.

It is an 8 storey development, proposed to have 424 apartments. There are a large number of studios and one bed apartments. In total, there are 563 bedrooms in the development. There are over 500 car parks. So this development will have a large number of apartments.

There will also be some retail in the development.

There have been a significant number of objections filed to the Development Application, so it is not certain whether or when this will go ahead.

West End Unit Owners are Concerned

"WEST END: Riverside apartment dwellers are banding together in a bid to give their direction on the future shape of the community. More than 30 residents from the Flow, Koko, Leftbank and Tempo complexes have met to discuss the need to build a sense of community in the area. Regatta Apartments body corporate chairman Paul Rees said they hoped to build a liveable community, not only for apartment dwellers but the whole of West End.

“We’re planning a series of regular events to build community in our area and the first event will be a breakfast in Riverside Park on Sunday, December 7 at 9am,” Mr Rees said.

He said they invited local, state and federal representatives as well as community groups and property developers to attend the breakfast to hear their ideas. Among residents’ concerns are building heights, closing Riverside Drive to public traffic and fast-tracking plans for a CityCat terminal. And Mr Rees said residents felt they were not consulted about increasing building heights.

“We are appalled at the suggestions of 15, 20 and 30-storey highrises being built here,” he said.

“We moved into this area believing the height limit would be seven storeys and we don’t want to see our area turned into a concrete jungle,” Mr Rees said.

He said a CityCat terminal and a reliable bus service on Montague Rd were important to give residents adequate public transport. Mr Rees said they supported redevelopment of the old riverside industrial areas as long as it was on a “human scale” and integrated with the established community of West End, “rather than creating a concrete barrier between West End and the river”."

See City South News

Future Brisbane Apartment Developments

There is likely to be a shortage of apartments in Brisbane in the near future. (This statement assumes that that is not massive unemployment in Brisbane.) There are few developments under construction, and so very little new stock will come onto the market in the next three years. What new stock remains unsold is either overpriced or poor quality.

Downtown Apartments

• M on Mary - completed - mostly poor quality 1 bedroom apartments, mostly unsold. Developer has ceased sales campaign and is running this building as short term accommodation
• Evolution - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - small and overpriced
• Skyline - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - building surrounded by other buildings, and generally overpriced
• Aurora - completed
  
• Empire Square - cancelled
• Trilogy Tower - status uncertain - in presales, with planned completion in 2012 - both hotel rooms and expensive apartments
• Vision - status uncertain - in presales, with completion not before 2012
  
• Soleil Tower - soon to start presales - 403 apartments, with completion about 2011
• French Quarter - early days, no planning approval
  

Inner City

• Flow (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
  
• Koko (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• Tempo (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• IceWorks (Paddington) - almost complete - about 6 apartments remain unsold
  
• SL8 (West End) - under construction, with completion expected in April 2009, poor location
• Waters Edge (West End) - off-the-plan selling, overpriced and selling poorly, completion in 2010
• Ciana (Indooroopilly) - almost complete - about 25 out of 130 apartments remain unsold - good value
  
• Tennyson Reach - 2 buildings nearing completion, 1 building not far behind, 3 more buildings planned
• Newstead Waterfront - 2 buildings selling well off-the-plan
• The Mill at Albion - almost sold out, relatively expensive
• El Dorado Village - to be launched to the marketing in October 2008, completion likely in 2011
• Milton Union - received planning approval

AFR - RP Data Brisbane Apartment Survey 2007

Building	Number of Resales	Median Annualised Capital Growth	Median hold period
Riparian Plaza	4	24.8%	2.8 years
Grosvenor	7	11.9%	3.7 years
Admiralty Towers	10	9%	6 years
KoKo	15	7.6%	2.3 years
Quay West	13	6.1%	11.1 years
Festival Towers	61	2.3%	3.9 years
Charlotte Towers	13	0.8%	2.9 years

Capital Growth is only for apartments that were sold in 2007. The median hold period includes time held from original off-the-plan contract date to sale.

What will 2008 have in store for the Brisbane apartment market?

First, how did the Brisbane apartment market do in 2007?

The results were mixed.

It is hard to get reliable information about "the state of the market" when looking at inner city apartments in Brisbane. Agents only seem to remember the last two weeks -- if they made some good sales in the past 2 weeks, then the market is booming; if they didn't get new listings or a contract collapsed, then the market is heading towards a bust.

Information providers, such as RP Data and PRDColliers, have good information, and this information is often used by the media to make general conclusions. However, general conclusions are often not useful when considering a particular apartment building or apartment.

Capital Gains

Some apartment buildings did very well, and others did not. Overall, a good building had at least a 10% capital gain in 2007.

The buildings that had good capital gains include:

• Riverplace, where the average 2 bedroom apartment increased from about $500,000 to over $600,000.
• Admiralty Two, where 2 bedroom apartments increased from about $650,000 to $720,000 (with one now listed at over $800,000).
• Quay West, with a 2 bedroom apartment selling to a senior Devine employee at auction for over $800,000.
• Metro 21, with high floor 2 bedroom apartments increasing from less than $460,000 to more than $500,000.
• Arbour on Grey, with 2 bedroom apartments now in the low $700,000 range.

Buildings that have been disappointments include:

• Charlotte Towers and Festival Towers - with Oaks taking over management. Many developer apartments still remain for sale in Charlotte Towers. Investors who purchased off the plan have had a hard time getting good prices on resale, with over 800 pokey poor quality student apartments in these two buildings, where the views will likely be lost as buildings grow around them and there will always be competition amongst sellers.
• Casino Towers, also taken over by Oaks, and with North Bank plans taking out the river views.
• Aurora, a poor quality ghetto building.
• Vue, at Milton, with apartments that sold off the plan in the mid $700,000s reselling at auction in the mid $500,000s.
• Koko, that still has not sold out, and the complex feels like a ghost town. The developer overpromised and under delivered.

Rents

Rents increased, and vacancy rates dropped in 2007. But the overall rental market is not as good as many newspaper articles suggest. The poorer quality buildings are full of students, often with 6 people living in a 2 bedroom apartment, on a rent subsidised by the developer who promised the first owner a rental guarantee. Many apartments are occupied by corporate renters (such as Accenture, engineers working on the tunnel, etc) who are willing to pay high prices for new furnished apartments; but this demand will not continue indefinitely. Some buildings, such as those managed by Oaks, are turning apartments into hotel rooms, thus reducing supply. Although December is not the best month to find tenants, there are many empty apartments in Brisbane awaiting tenants. Skyline and Koko, for example, have many empty apartments.

Although rents increased in 2007, the rate of increase slowed towards the end of the year. It is now hard to find a good unfurnished two bedroom apartment for rent in the inner city for less than $550.

Predictions for 2008

Quality inner city apartments in Brisbane will do well in 2008. Capital growth will continue, and vacancy rates will remain low. Reasons for this include:

▪ Brisbane population will continue to increase.
▪ International students still regard Brisbane as a desirable location.
▪ There are many infrastructure projects in Brisbane, requiring professional staff to work in Brisbane.
▪ Traffic will get worse, and many young singles and families will want to live in quality accommodation close to work and other facilities.
▪ It is becoming more acceptable and desirable to live in an apartment in Brisbane.
▪ The U.S. subprime problems will have little long term impact in Brisbane.
▪ There will be few new buildings entering the market in the next two years. M on Mary and Evolution, both second tier buildings, will be complete in 2008. That's about it. There are only six buildings listed on realestate.com.au in the developers section for the CBD, and four of these are completed buildings (Vue, Trilogy, Pinnacle, Skyline, The Hub, Evolution). It does not look like any new buildings will be ready in 2009. There will be new buildings for which marketing will commence in 2008, but these buildings will not be ready until at least 2010.

So here are some predictions for 2008:

• The price of a good quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane, with views, will be at least $800,000.
• The price of an average quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane will reach $650,000.
• By the end of 2008, it will be hard to find any modern inner city apartment in Brisbane in a good location for less than $600,000.
• New off-the-plan 2 bedroom apartments (for buildings where marketing commences in 2008) will start at $800,000.
• Average rent for an unfurnished 2 bedroom apartment will jump midyear to $620 per week.
• There will be more buyers than sellers.
• There will be more action in the inner suburbs than in the city. Prices for quality apartments in areas such as Indooroopilly and Toowong (where there is a train station and regional shopping, close to education facilities) will boom. By the end on 2008, it will be hard to find a good quality 2 bedroom apartment in these areas for less than $600,000.
• Noosa and Mooloolaba will rise again, as people looking in Brisbane for investments will see good value in the northern beaches, particularly beachfront apartments.
• 2009 will be better than 2008.

If you find any of these predictions hard to believe, for some buildings they are already true. For example, today:

• Small Off-the-plan 2 bedroom apartments in Brisbane, in Evolution, at 75 sqm, are selling for over $650,000.
• Two bedroom apartments are selling in Quay West, Arbour on Grey, Admiralty One and Admiralty Two for more than $700,000.
• Trilogy, in Spring Hill, has two bedroom apartments (less than 80 sqm, but with views) listed at more than $600,000. [However, a number of contracts have fallen through, as the valuations have come back $40,000 or so less than contract price.)
• New two bedroom apartments with river views in West End and Milton (e.g. in Flow and in Coronation Residences), which are not prime locations, are selling for more than $900,000.
• Off-the-plan apartments (two bedrooms, at least 85 sqm) are selling in quality developments in Indooroopilly, Toowong and Sherwood today for well more than $550,000.
• People have signed contracts for 2 bedroom apartments in Vision (e.g., level 35, 120 sqm) for more than $1,000,000. Settlement, if this building ever gets off the ground, will not be until 2011.
• The price range for a large 2 bedroom apartment in Mirvac's Tennyson Reach is $900,000 to $1,100,000. Settlement in 2010.
• Off-the-plan 2 bedroom apartments in Soul on the Gold Coast are, at a minimum, $1,800,000. Settlement not at least until 2011.

So I will not be selling in 2008.

Brisbane Apartment Sales

Koko (a Stockland development)
Apartment 238 - Greenwich Building - 2 bed 2 bath pool view - sold at auction on 1 December 2007 for $553,000

Arbour On Grey (a Mirvac development)
Apartment 1320 = Stage One, 3rd floor, 3 bedrooms - Sold for $1,100,000
Apartment 2214 = Stage Two, 2nd floor, 3 bedrooms - Sold for $962,500
Third floor, 2 bedroom apartment recently sold for more than $700,000

1901/132 Alice St, Brisbane - $850,000 (Quay West)
206/132 Alice St, Brisbane - $750,000 (Quay West)

Others:

112/293 North Quay, Brisbane - $215,000 (North Quay)

1009/128 Charlotte St, Brisbane - $370,000 (Charlotte Towers)

245/420 Queen St, Brisbane - $477,000 (Aurora Tower)

4020/255 Ann St, Brisbane - $293,000 (Rendezvous)

705/35 Astor Terrace, Spring Hill - $425,000 (The Astor)

3001/255 Ann St, Brisbane - $310,000 (Rendezvous Hotel)

2006/108 Albert St, Brisbane - $305,000 (Festival Towers)

3003/108 Albert St, Brisbane - $435,000 (Festival Towers)

3008/128 Charlotte St, Brisbane - $571,500 (Charlotte Towers)

2101/92 Quay St, Brisbane - $395,000 (Vue)

Pradella's New West End Development

Soon, Flow will be complete. Next door, Pradella will launch a new West End riverside development. I suspect it will be worth considering.

It does not have a name, but it does have a website.

Pradella will have developed three West End riverside complexes:

• Flow (to be completed in 2007) which looked extremely overpriced, but now just looks expensive; some apartments will be excellent (riverside on high floor) and some are not great
  
• New and unnamed
• LeftBank which is still looking very good
  

Stockland has Koko, which didn't live up to expectations.

And there is Riverpoint, currently selling off-the-plan, which looks very mixed.

I suspect there will be more to come.

Koko at West End

One agent told me recently that Stockland has a significant number of unsold apartments at the Koko development at West End. Another agent told me that the apartment complex has a significant problem getting water for the courtyard gardens, and that it was costing the body corporate more than expected.

I found the gardens over all to be disappointing at Koko. Looking at the original marketing material, and comparing what resulted, there is a big difference. One example: the pool had clear glass-like pool fencing in the brochure; but the pool was built with an ugly metal pool fence.

A number of apartments are being resold, with 2 bedrooms of about 85 sqm being sold for less than $600,000, even $550,000.

A three bedroom on the top floor is listed at $1,450,000.

They just don't seem to be selling that fast.