Luxury Apartment Supply

"The number of three-bedroom luxury apartments to be built in prime suburbs over the next three years is rising in Brisbane" according to the AFR (13 Feb 2020, p 34).

Luxury three bedroom apartments will make up 21% of new apartments built by 2022 "amid growing demand from downsizers and retirees."

Bulimda, Ascot and Hawthorne are areas which will are predicted to get the lion's share of these apartments.

Maybe the demand for 1 bedroom and student accommodation is falling in Brisbane, particularly with the sluggish student demand due to coronavirus.  That makes sense, because small badly designed one bedrooms have a limited market appeal.

I have seen good one bedrooms sold off the plan a few years back now selling for $100,000 less than the off the plan price.  Some developers have unsold stock that they have held for over a year.

The Highgate in Highgate Hill

Pointcorp is marketing The Highgate located in Highgate Hill, next door to the famous Torbreck building.  Looks like it will have great views north to the city.  The complex will have 42 apartments starting at $1.5M.  The developer says that is sees a demand for premium apartments in Brisbane, in the $1M to $2M range.  The AFR below reports 108 sales in Sunland's Abian on Alice Street and good results for SouthPoint and Pinnacle presales.

Two Bedroom in Park Avenue

Is this Brisbane's most expensive two bedroom apartment?  It is in the Park Avenue building at South Bank (which is on a 99 year leasehold).  Only $1,195,000!  There are no internal photos, and it is unclear how big this apartment is, or on what floor it is located.  And there is no open for inspection.  (Is this a real listing, or a joke?!?)

One57 in New York

"One57, a 306-metre tower under construction in Midtown Manhattan, will soon hold the title of New York's tallest building with residences. But without fanfare from its ultraprivate future residents, it is cementing a new title: the global billionaires' club. The buyers of the nine full-floor apartments near the top that have sold so far — among them two duplexes under contract for more than $90 million each — are all billionaires, Gary Barnett, the president of the Extell Development Co., the building's developer, said this week. The other seven apartments ranged in price from $45 million to $50 million. The billionaires' club includes several Americans, at least two buyers from China, a Canadian, a Nigerian and a Briton, according to Barnett and brokers who have sold apartments in the building, at 157 West 57th Street."

Full story here

Luxury Apartments

• New York apartment on Central Park South sold for $70 million.
• Soul Penthouse at Surfers Paradise, in final stages of completion, hoping to sell for $20M.
• Waterfront Newstead for $8,750,000
• Riparian, Brisbane City, for more than $3M

Brisbane Not Yet At Bottom

For Apartments:

The Brisbane apartment market fared worse than the house market in the last six months of 2011 and faces an oversupply of this type of property.  REIQ figures for the December quarter 2011 show that rental vacancies in inner Brisbane – where most of the stock is apartments – increased from 1.4% in the September 2011 quarter to 1.9% in the December 2011 quarter while the overall city vacancy rate remained unchanged at 2.3%  

In addition, valuation firm LandMark White is warning that a combination of too many projects and historically low demand could result in an oversupply of new apartments in inner-city Brisbane suburbs like Fortitude Valley and Bowen Hills.

The firm’s property valuers believe affordable “entry-level” apartments within five kilometres of the CBD will continue to appreciate in value but expect values in prestige units in new complexes to continue to fall.

“We have seen demand for prestige units decline again, with extended marketing periods or heavy price reductions,” says WBP.

On the other hand, “entry-level units are being purchased by single professionals who require affordable housing and access to the Brisbane CBD. We have recently seen volumes of sub-$400,000 unit sales increase.”

Michael Yardney is very bearish about Brisbane units, placing the market in the relatively early stages of a property downturn at three o’clock.

“There are a large number of off-the-plan apartments available in the Brisbane CBD and surrounding suburbs. Many of these remain unsold, and this oversupply of properties will put downward pressure on prices and rentals,” he says.  “Many of the apartments that have been sold off the plan are coming on stream in the next few years and have been purchased by investors.  Some will have difficulty getting finance and settling their purchase. Others will be disappointed to see the end value of their properties is less than their purchase price,” Yardney says.

“There will be an oversupply of inner-CBD and near-CBD apartments in Brisbane for a few years, causing prices to fall slightly.”

See Report Here

For houses:

As the house price growth figures from RP Data show, Brisbane’s housing market continues to fall.

House prices were flat over the final quarter of 2011, according to figures compiled the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, which says that one year on from the floods, the housing market is showing signs of stabilising.

Michael Yardney, Louis Christopher and Charles Tarbey all believe Brisbane has some way to go before it bottoms out.

“House prices in Brisbane have dropped for the last two years. Brisbane buyers are lacking confidence to re-enter the market and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for signs that the market has bottomed before they make a purchase,” says Yardney.  “This may occur later this year as Brisbane prices stabilise. Prices are unlikely to start rising until the second half of this year or 2013.”

See Report Here

Luxury Brisbane Units

"As units go, there are a few very nice projects mostly on the river, with views and close to the city that have experienced good money, but sales have been rare. Scott Street, Kangaroo Point as well as the Tom Dooley projects are the places to find serious unit money but even these have seen a slower sale pace. The problem is that many buyers are empty nesters looking to purchase subject to the sale of their own riverfront homes which, of course, creates problems."

See HTW Report

Riparian Update

A three bedroom apartment in Riparian (4801/71 Eagle Street) on level 48 recently sold for $2 million. This is a 314 sqm apartment. It was listed last year for sale at $3.4 million. (The current owner paid just over $1.6 million in 2002.)

The three bedroom apartment next door (Apt 4802) is currently for sale. It has been listed with agents for $3.8 million. Noel Robinson, the architect, paid just over $1.8 million in 2002.

Downstairs, a two bedroom apartment (4702/71 Eagle Street) is listed for auction. See video. This property sold in 2001 for just over $1 million, in 2006 for $1.6 million, and has been on the market for a year. In September, it was listed at $1.6 million, but today's advertising says "disregard all previous pricing.... must be sold."

Apt 4804, with 3 bedrooms, sold in December last year for $2,350,000.

RP Data May 2011 Index

RP Data – Rismark Home Value Index Release

Capital city dwelling values declined by 0.3 per cent (seasonally adjusted - s.a.) in May, and are down 1.2 per cent (s.a.) over last 3 months. Rest of State house values were also weak in May (-0.1 per cent s.a.) and are off -0.9 per cent (s.a.) over last 3 months. Gross rental yields for Aussie apartments are now 5.0 per cent.

Based on more than 110,000 home sales nationally in 2011, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index for Australia’s capital cities declined by -0.3 per cent (s.a.) in the month of May (or by -0.5 per cent in raw terms). Capital city home values have now fallen for the last five consecutive months with by far the worst seasonally-adjusted result coming in the month of January (-1.2 per cent), which accounts for 45 per cent of the 2011 decline.

The softening in Australian home values is delivering a valuation dividend with Australia’s dwelling price-to-disposable income ratio falling to 4.2 times, which is its lowest level since June 2003 according to Rismark’s analysis.

RP Data’s research director, Tim Lawless, added “For property investors, rental yields are also improving with RP Data-Rismark’s Index showing that gross Australian apartment yields have now risen to 5.0% (see chart). The best rental yields can be found in Darwin (5.7 per cent), Canberra (5.4 per cent), Brisbane (5.2 per cent) and Sydney (5.2 per cent). The worst yields are in Melbourne (4.2 per cent), Adelaide (4.6 per cent) and Perth (4.9 per cent).”

Over the three months to May 2011 dwelling values in Australia’s capital cities have retraced by -1.2 per cent on a seasonally-adjusted basis. In raw terms, dwelling values have fallen by -1.3 per cent. The quarterly rate of decline has, however, moderated since the end of March when home values were off by -2.0 per cent care of a flood-affected January.

Over the 12 months to end May, Australian capital city dwelling values are now down -2.3 per cent (seasonally-adjusted). If we just look at the first five months of 2011, Australian home values have stepped back by -2.7 per cent.

Across the capital cities performance has been varied and counter-intuitive to the purported resources boom. Sydney is the only market to have recorded a modest capital gain over the last year (up 1.0 per cent). Homes in Canberra have also held ground (-0.1 per cent over the year). All other capitals have slipped into the red, with some down by significant margins.

According to Tim Lawless, the two weakest results have been Perth, where dwelling values are down -7.5 per cent year-on-year, and Brisbane, which is off by -5.9 per cent over the year. ...

According to Tim Lawless the weakness across equities markets is likely to be an important factor affecting the premium housing market: “The S&P/ASX 200 Index remains almost 35 per cent below its November 2007 peak and the index is down 8 per cent since the start of April. The top end of the market clearly benefitted from the circa 40 per cent rise in share prices following the trough in March 2009. However, the recent share market weakness is affecting premium demand.”

Ben Skilbeck, Rismark’s Joint Managing Director, added, “Demand for Australia’s luxury homes has also been sapped by the surging currency, which has made local housing much more expensive for expats located in Europe, North America and Asian countries with US dollar currency pegs to buy. Financial markets are currently pricing in a decent chance of an interest rate cut over the next 6-9 months. If the RBA does indeed reduce rates, this would provide substantial support to the market. However, our central case remains that rates are heading up, not down, and thus we are not looking for any capital gains in 2011. That said, total returns will be boosted by very solid growth in rents, with gross yields in May now at 5.0% for Aussie apartments. Rental vacancy rates remain very tight, so we expect to see further improvements in rental returns.”

See RP Data Press Release.

See also Brisbane Times

"Consumers are well and truly focused on saving, not spending," Mr Lawless said. "Despite the low rate of unemployment and the strength of the resources sector, it is clear that the average Australian is content to pay-down debt and wait for some economic certainty to return. As a consequence, transaction volumes in the real estate market are about 20 per cent below the five year average and listing volumes are about 25 per cent higher than what they were last year."

Vendor discounting in Brisbane has fallen back to 7.8 per cent after peaking at 8.3 per cent last December.

Joye's Myths

An extract from an article by Chris Joye:

"A third myth is the popular claim that luxury, or more expensive, properties outperform cheaper ones. This is just not supported by the empirical data. Analysis produced by Rismark proves that mid-priced homes have actually delivered stronger capital growth than their dearer counterparts. And this also comes with considerably lower risk.

The luxury end of the market is “illiquid” – that is to say, it only attracts, by definition, a small number of buyers and sellers – and is afflicted by far greater risk or volatility. This is highlighted by RP Data-Rismark’s luxury property index, which is denoted by the red line in the chart below. Observe how during 2009 and 2010 the most expensive homes outperformed the broader market. Yet during the recent soft-landing, it has been this same cohort that has tanked, relatively speaking. ...

My sixth myth is that Australian house prices are massively overvalued and set to fall by 20 to 40%. You may recall that my regular sparring partner, associate professor Steve Keen, famously predicted in 2008 that Aussie house prices were “going to fall by 40% or so in the next few years.” Well, he could not have been more wrong. Dwelling prices in Australia’s capital cities are currently 30% higher than their March 2008 peak, just prior to the GFC hitting our shores.

Put differently, dwelling prices are nearly 70% higher than where Dr Keen expected them to be. My other mate, the economist Rory Robertson, challenged Dr Keen to a bet on this note, which the latter lost. As a result, Dr Keen ended up walking from Canberra to Mount Kosciuszko wearing a T-shirt exclaiming “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices” (or something to that effect). ...

Property Observer

Rp Data - Rismark April Report

The near-double interest rate hike in November last year has bitten, with seasonally-adjusted Australian capital city dwelling values down 1.2% in the three months to end April, although in raw terms home values are mostly unchanged (-0.2%). Expensive suburbs have been the poorest performers in line with the share market.

According to Tim Lawless, RP Data’s research director, expensive suburbs have helped drag the overall market down. RP Data and Rismark divide their capital city index into three sub-indices: the bottom 20 per cent of suburbs ranked by price, the middle 60 per cent, and the top 20 per cent.

Over the year to end April, dwellings in the most expensive capital city suburbs recorded a -5.4 per cent loss (see second chart). In contrast, home values in the middle 60 per cent of suburbs were down by only -0.9 per cent. Dwellings located in the cheapest 20 per cent of suburbs were the best performers, hardly moving (-0.5 per cent).

RP Data’s Tim Lawless commented, “The solid performance of cheap suburbs runs against the grain of popular claims that default rates are rocketing up amongst first time buyers, which the RBA recently rejected.”

“The luxury end of the housing market is also showing its volatility. During the growth phase of the cycle the most expensive homes realised the highest capital gains. Yet as the market cools premium home values seem to be losing steam the fastest,” he said.

According to Mr Lawless, the weak conditions seen in the Perth and Brisbane markets combined with the comparatively high capital gains recorded in Melbourne and Sydney has driven a widening housing cost gap.

“Brisbane’s median house price is now 24 per cent lower than Sydney’s and 14 per cent lower than Melbourne’s. Pre-GFC the gap between Brisbane and Sydney dwelling prices was as narrow as 6.4 per cent. Perth dwelling prices are now 18 per cent lower than Sydney’s and 8 per cent lower than Melbourne’s. At its narrowest, the gap between Perth and Sydney prices was just 2.3 per cent. The improved buying proposition in these cities should help support buyer sentiment, which has been very weak since the financial crisis,” Mr Lawless said.

Christopher Joye added, “Notwithstanding that low vacancy rates will help rental growth outperform core inflation, the capital growth environment is as we forecast last year: missing in action. If the RBA raises rates another 1-2 times this year, we project that house prices will remain soft and likely register some modest losses. While home values in Australia have not risen for a year, wages and disposable household incomes are growing rapidly. This is improving the valuation dynamics every day. When the RBA eventually cuts interest rates, the housing market will benefit from a tremendous affordability dividend.”

See RP Data Release

Market Cracks

See this story from Bloomberg:

Luxury Home-Price Cracks Emerge for Australia in Gold Coast, Noosa Heads

Extract:

Apartment prices in the luxury beachside Australian town of Noosa Heads have tumbled by a fifth since 2008 as cracks emerge in a housing market that’s so far escaped the rout seen in the U.S., U.K. and Ireland.

The median apartment price in the tourism and retiree town 150 kilometers (93 miles) north of Brisbane has slumped 21 percent in three years to A$570,000 ($594,000), according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland. Sales have more than halved across Queensland state’s Sunshine coast, home to “Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin’s Australia Zoo, and the Gold Coast, known for its surfing beaches and casinos.

“We have a very overvalued housing market and even a small adverse shock can be magnified by a large adverse impact on property values,” said Gerard Minack, Sydney-based global developed markets strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS), who asserts Australian home prices are as much as 40 percent overvalued. “We’re seeing that now in parts of Queensland.”

Gold Coast Penthouses

From a Colliers email:

"Since early March, six penthouses have reportedly sold across the Gold Coast, from beachside Burleigh Heads to waterfront Hollywell in the north, for a combined total of almost $20 million.

The sales included the penthouse at Ivory in Burleigh Heads which sold for $4.185 million, Ultra in Broadbeach which was secured off the plan for between $3 million and $3.5 million, Pintari and The Inlet in Main Beach, both snapped up for $3.4 million, and Allisee in Hollywell for $2.6 million.

The City’s latest penthouse sale was in Chevron Renaissance’s spectacular Skyline Tower. It sold earlier this month to a local resident for $2.95 million in a deal negotiated by Colliers International Gold Coast’s Director - Prestige Property, John Natoli.

There has been a surprising number of penthouse sales on the Gold Coast in the last four months as vendors were meeting the market on price, driven by the global financial markets, and buyers were quick to act to secure solid investment opportunities – in this case prime residential property."