Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Friday, January 24, 2014

Interstate Property Buyers

The AFR had a story on page 3 on Wednesday this week: "Interstate property buyers see value in northern exposure."  Some extracts:
  • Investors from Sydney and Melbourne are flocking to Brisbane's apartment market seeking better value for money after being pushed out of increasingly expensive southern cities.
  • Brisbane developer Silverstone Developments reports that 72% of off-the-plan sales in its Vertice project at Dutton Park were sold in interstate buyers.
  • Other developers are all reporting surging interest from interstate buyers.
  • Mirvac's chief executive for residential said there was an upswing in sales of quality Brisbane properties to interstate investors due to the low rental vacancy rates and increasing rental yields in prime locations across Brisbane, as well as the price differential between Brisbane and those in southern states.
  • Since 2007, the gap in prices between Brisbane and Melbourne/Sydney has slowly opened up again.
  • Further interest in Brisbane will be contingent upon how may jobs the south-east of the state creates.
  • There is a lot more value for money in the Brisbane market, according to Metro Property Group.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Unemployment

Employment is a key factor impacting apartment prices.


"So what could trigger an overdue shift in rhetoric? Watch the jobless rate. Economists and the RBA forecast it will drift towards 6 per cent. While I think there is scope for it to soften in the near term, I suspect it could start falling again in 2013. This would be a game-changer. An unambiguous decline in the jobless rate, propelled by an ageing population that shrinks the pool of productive labour, will force the RBA to remove its extreme stimulus."  See AFR

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Infinity Retreats to Serviced Apartments

Meriton Apartments builds more than 1,000 units a year – recently it has shifted its attention to serviced apartments, holding back nearly half of the apartments in its 81-storey Infinity tower in the Brisbane CBD to be offered as serviced apartments.

Meriton boss Harry Triguboff says Chinese buyers are retreating from the market due to the high Australian dollar and uncertainty in China as its economy cools.  Triguboff says that in the last three months Chinese buying has subsided, replaced (in Sydney) by first-home buyers taking advantage of new state government handouts.

No one is sure why Brisbane did not immediately respond but it would seem that the severity of the state government cuts and the fears about what will happen to coal mining would have played a role. Again it is early days and addition a large part of the Brisbane building skills base is employed constructing the mines.

See Property Observer and Business Spectator

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Ugly Brisbane

Chris Joye had APM (a division of Fairfax) conduct an analysis to determine in which markets most buyers have lost or made money.  APM looked at all properties sold since January 2009, and conducted an EVR (electronic valuation) on each of these properties to determine if the current valuation was more or less than the purchase price.  In Brisbane 71% of properties sold since January 2009 were now worth less than the purchase price, according to APM's valuations.  Who says that you can't have a capital loss when buying property?

From my brief review of the property market in Brisbane (e.g., looking at listings and actual sales, talking with agents, making offers on properties, etc.) it seems to me that the situation in Brisbane is somewhat dire.  And it may not improve soon, and could get worse.  Even though interest rates are falling, a more important factor is employment -- and unemployment in Brisbane is on the increase.

See Chris Joye's Another Cut article.


Thursday, August 23, 2012

Rental Crash Coming?

I wonder if a rental crash is coming?  From my review of listing portals, there is a build up of property for rent in Brisbane.  Some landlords are reducing rents.  I am not sure if this is seasonal, or part of a trend.  There are less students renting in Brisbane at present, and less consultants doing government work.

A reader sent me this via email:
"Enjoy reading your blog, just wondering if you have noticed the huge rise in listed apartments for rent in Brisbane. The price also seems to have fallen, seen 2b2b1c furnished in Bowen Hills/Kelvin Grove for $520. Casino Towers 2b2b1c for $480 Emporium has gone from 2 apartments available 2 weeks ago, to over a dozen. Not sure you keep stats on these things, but would be interesting if you could post them if you do."

If anyone has any evidence on this topic, please let me know.

The economy is not strong in Brisbane.  Some government departments are doing forced redundancy programs, where 30% of employees and almost 100% of contractors are being let go.  Small business is hurting, with costs increasing and revenue decreasing.  My guess is that the actual inflation rate and unemployment rate is higher than being reported.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Uncertainties, Risks and Body Corporate Fees

I feel that now is probably a good time to buy an apartment in Brisbane.  Prices are down, and there are many good apartments for sale.  However, there are uncertainties that are holding me back:
  • What will happen if the mining boom comes to an end?
  • Will Newman's retrenchment of 20% of the public service kill any chance of growth for the next 3 years?
  • Will Newman increase land tax rates and lower land tax threasolds in Queensland?
  • What will Newman and the Attorney-General do in relation to the complex issues regarding lot adjustments (that impact the percentage of body corporate fees an individual unit owner will pay)?  If I buy now, will the unit entitlements be adjusted up in the near future so that my body corporate fees will increase?  Will there be costly legal action between the body corporate and various interest groups in the buildings.  See here and here for example.  Changes to this are a priority for the government it seems, to reward penthouse owners for voting for the Liberal party.
So, for the time being, there is too much uncertainty and risk to buy an apartment (or an investment property) in Brisbane or Queensland.

Regardless, body corporate fees and council rates are becoming prohibitively high, and make investing in apartments less attractive.

I looked at an older apartment on the river recently.  It has been on the market for more than 6 months.  It is a 2 bedroom (with a small second bedroom), with river views.  The facilities are moderate -- no doorman, onsite manager, reception desk or the like.  The list price has come down, and is now $455,000.  But the body corporate fees are $8,830 a year, and council rates are $2,000 a year.  So more than $10,000 a year in these expenses.  The rent for this apartment would be about $400 a week, or about $365 a week after real estate agent's fees.  So that is 30 weeks, or more than half a year's rent, just to cover body corporate levies and rates!  Clearly, this is not a good investment, even if the price drops another $100,000.

Post-script -- comment from a reader after this post was published:
Your sentiments re purchasing a unit or apartment in Brisbane reflect my own also, very valid points.
Another is upcoming or planned or approved “future” capital works such as painting, under-pinning, structural repairs, landscaping, tree removals and the like. At a number of units I have looked at, the agents got very cagy when put the question. Pressing one very hard got I wind of a complete paint job coming up within 2 years,  approx $250,000k across 80 units, and unit titles re-appropriation may also make some owners rather unhappy as well. Ouch! Another had $30,000K in quotes not yet voted on (but very necessary since drains were becoming repeatedly blocked by roots) for tree removal. Ouch!  Many units 10 years and over now need a lot of work, much of which has been delayed or put back but  it’s coming. New buyers beware.
Article in AFR, 7 August, P38: Newman at a get together of banks and bizo’s was playing pretend Reserve Bank Chief and instructing banks to start lending. Banks won’t (as we all know), denying they should take risks just for Newman et al. Last para of article states : At a meeting of people from the big four banks recently, one person from one of the big four proclaimed  “We’re not lending anything into Northern Australia. Northern Australia begins at Nundah in Brisbane.”

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Prediction: Market to Keep Falling in Brisbane

My prediction for the next four months -- the Brisbane property market will continue to decline.  My reasons - (a) There is much uncertainty as to what new taxes and increased taxes Newman will hit property owners with.  We will not know until September.  (b) There will be many Queensland government employees and contractors who will suddenly become unemployed.  This has started to happen, and they are selling their investment properties in distressed situations, and few government workers are buying investments at present due to the uncertainty.  It is uncertain whether foreign buyers will be less interested due to the doubling of capital gains tax for non-residents.  I am seeing many Brisbane apartments being sold for 10% below recent sales price.  Gloomy times ahead.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Interest Rates Down in Australia

The Australian Reserve Bank decreased its interest rate today by 0.25%.  BOQ immediately dropped its home lending rate by 0.2%.  Will this assist the Brisbane housing market?  It will not hurt, but it may not be enough to assist.  What drives residential property growth more is population growth and employment growth.  In Brisbane, many State Government consultants, contractors and employees are being fired, with the government bankrupt and trying to decrease its workforce by 20%.  So this will have a bigger, negative impact than any positive impacts of the interest rate decreases.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Heavy Gearing


According to the OECD, Australian households remain heavily geared with a high ratio of household debt to disposable income(183.7%), but this has declined from the pre-GFC level of 186.4%.  In 2000, this ratio was 124%.  The OECD average was 98%.  See story here.

Many Australians are prepared to borrow heavily to buy a residence, believing that "rent money is dead money".  But that is not always the situation.  Buying a house or apartment for the short term is often a bad decision.  And if you have to move with your job, as some Qantas engineers found out recently, owning a house can be a liability.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Unemployment

I like this quote from the Chief Economist from Morgan Stanley:
"Traditionally what has hurt people has not been rising (interest) rates but rising unemployment. I don't care what rate you're paying, if you have a mortgage five times your income and you lose your job, you're toast.''
See Daily Telegraph from 2009.
Easy credit followed by high unemployment rates is a good indicator of whether there will be a residential property bust.  Look at Spain, with 25% unemployment for example.  So at present, Queensland should be safe.  But if the mining and construction boom ends....