RP Data Home Value Index Released Today

Based on approximately 178,000 home sales over the year to July, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index recorded a seasonally-adjusted fall of -0.6 per cent in capital city home values over the month of July (-0.9 per cent in raw terms).

Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent. According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, this national result conceals wide divergences across the individual cities.

Over the 12 months to July 2011, Australian capital city home values are off -2.9 per cent. Mr Lawless said that it looks like a multi-speed housing market: Brisbane (-6.6 per cent), Perth (-6.3 per cent), and Melbourne (-4.3 per cent) have all experienced significant declines over the last year, whereas the 35 per cent of Australia's capital city population that lives in Canberra (+1.9 per cent) and Sydney (+0.5 per cent) had realised capital gains.

"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase," Mr Joye said.

Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data.

Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft.

Extracted from Press Release

From RP Data

"Australians are choosing to own their homes for longer with the average time frame between house sales increasing from 6.8 years 10 years ago to 8.6 years in 2011. [For Brisbane apartments, the average hold period is 6.8 years, which is an increase of 7 months over the past ten years.]

The RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results for July 2011 will be released on Wednesday next week. We anticipate that the results aren’t likely to show much deviation from the past month to month trend; the market is flat to falling, Sydney is the best performer while Brisbane and Perth are the laggards. In recent months the rate of value decline has been slowing with a fall of just -0.2% during June across the combined capital cities. We expect fairly similar conditions when the July results are released next week. Certainly with low levels of consumer confidence we would not expect an improvement in sales volumes or return to value growth so long as consumers continue to act in a cautious nature.

---

The total number of properties listed for sale remains at elevated levels, increasing by 4.3% over the week nationally and by 5.4% across the combined capital cities. Total listings remain at elevated levels, 33.1% higher than they were last year nationally and 32.0% higher across the capital cities. It will be interesting to see what happens with listings in the coming week, given the weak market conditions and inflated listing volumes an increase coming in to spring would not be beneficial for the market."

House Price Crash

This is a good article on property investment, and points out some of the risks of off-the-plan purchases and dealing with developers.

House Price Crash

Rent apartment for "free" lottery scheme

Have a look at Keys to Brisbane, where a Brisbane apartment owner has a competition or lottery to win the apartment rent free for a year. The owner is reported as saying that if he does not get a substantial number of entrants who pay $20, he will cancel this lottery and refund the $20.

Wall Street Journal Report on Australia Housing

"Locally, buyers have already started to wane. In the last year, there were 90,210 first-home buyers across Australia, 35% lower than the previous year and a seven-year low, according to BankWest, a Western Australia-based lender and unit of Commonwealth Bank.

Mr. Donnelly, whose firm has sold residential property in Australia worth more than A$1.2 billion to mostly overseas investors, says the market in Sydney and Brisbane could sidestep some of the weakness, largely because both fell behind in the recent development push.

Brisbane has also been weak, with prices off more than 6% this year, but much of the drop stems from the devastation to the capital of Queensland state earlier in the year from a series of floods."

Extract from WSJ report on decline in Australian property market

Oversupply of Apartments in Brisbane, especially Hamilton and Albion

THE number of apartments planned for Brisbane's inner north is the biggest threat to the success of the city's apartment market.

The June quarter report by real estate agent Place Advisory on inner Brisbane's apartment market says new developments planned for this precinct, which includes suburbs such as Bowen Hills through to Hamilton, threaten to create an oversupply in coming months.

Large multi-density communities are being approved almost on a weekly basis, while new mixed-use communities are poised to enter pre-release marketing campaigns before Christmas.

Place Advisory says that if many of these projects are not an overwhelming success, it will add to an already pessimistic local dynamic, ultimately driving away buyers from off-the-plan sales. The success or failure of only a few will affect the wider Brisbane property market in the longer term, it says.

Almost 70 per cent of the unconditional sales during the quarter were priced under $550,000. Only 6 per cent were above $750,000. Total sales were about $136 million, in line with the average total quarterly sales in the past five years.

There were 2144 new residential apartments for sale, or about 27 months' of stock, in inner Brisbane at the end of the financial year.

Of these, 50 per cent were two-bedroom, 33 per cent are one-bedroom apartments, and only 12 per cent three-bedroom configurations.

Place says most of the unconditional sales in the quarter were to interstate or international buyers.

Source: The Australian

Brisbane property market "reasonably depressed"

"RP Data research director Tim Lawless does not expect a big pick-up in the number of properties being offered for sale. His figures show there are about 30,100 properties for sale across greater Brisbane - about 26 per cent more than at the same time last year.

Throughout the state there are about 88,900 homes being advertised for sale, about 31 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

"The Brisbane market is still reasonably depressed, so I would be surprised if the spring selling season sees a dramatic influx of homes added to the market," he said.

"It is not a great time to be selling a property.

"Transaction volumes are about a third lower than what they have averaged over the past five years, houses are taking a longer than normal time to sell (about two months on average) and vendors are having to offer larger than normal discounts from their asking prices in order to make a sale (about 8.1 per cent) in June."

Mr Lawless said there might be a modest boost in listing volumes in spring. "And we are probably also going to see a revamp of marketing activity for those homes that have been available for sale over an extended period."

Source: Courier Mail

Devine's Brisbane City and Teneriffe Plans

Devine reports that it has secured the opportunity to build a 107 apartment project in Teneriffe, launching in the first half of 2012.

Devine also has two pending apartment projects in the Brisbane CBD, one on Albert Street at the corner of Margaret Street (the Camelot site) and another nearby on Margaret Street opposite the synagogue. From Devine's reports, it looks like these two city buildings are a long way off.

Devine's Hamilton Harbour

Devine reports to the Australian Stock Exchange, as at 25 August 2011, the following in relation to its Hamilton Harbour apartment development:

"Continued strong sales performance

• HarbourOne - 98%sold ($137 million in value)

• HarbourTwo - 86% sold ($92 million in value)

• Riverside - 60% sold ($57 million in value)

Construction on schedule for all three towers:

• TowerOne 78% complete

• TowerTwo 63% complete

• TowerThree commenced

Significant progress on mixed-use elements of Hamilton Harbour with strong retail and commercial leasing underway

Construction on Hamilton Harbour is ahead of schedule and under budget with completion of first two towers in first half of FY12

• Hamilton Harbour TowersOne and Two are both ‘topped out’, with fit-out complete on over 60% of apartments

• Construction delivered revenue of $108 million

• Devine Construction awarded $60 million contract to build ‘Riverside’ – the third tower at Hamilton Harbour."

So, Riverside is costing $60 million to build (including profit for the builder); and 60% sold gives $57 million in sales. Looks like a good profit margin here for Devine.

Sunland's Brisbane Development

Sunland reports that it was holding discussions with Cbus Property about a joint venture for $250 million Carrington Tower on Alice Street (also known as the French Quarter site -- that Devine sold to Sunland). The new tower (B1??) is awaiting final approvals. Mr Abedian of Sunland is reported as saying:

"With a project as unique as Carrington and given its proximity to the city and entry into the Botanic Gardens, we will ensure that the timing of the launch is one where we have the greatest confidence. We think 2012 is the more appropriate time to launch such a project. But we are no in a hurry and we won't rush a flagship project such as this."

It sounds to me like this apartment development will not start construction for some time.

Southpoint at South Bank

The Australian Financial Review had an article yesterday about developer Anthony Jones Group. Most of the story was about the Emporium Hotel, built on the old bus depot in The Valley. Despite its poor location in the middle of two major roads and a car park, its glitzy fitout has proved popular.

The story mentions Anthony Jones Group's proposed development at South Bank, called Southpoint, that has been promised for a number of years now. It is said to be at 17 storey retail and office block, 458 apartments, and a 180 room Emporium hotel (that no doubt will have over the top decor too.) It was reported that early works started last year, but there has not been much happening on the site this year.

Suncorp supposedly has short listed Southpoint for its new headquarters.

REIQ Press Release

Queensland’s residential property market has regained some of the ground it lost following the natural disasters earlier this year, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ June quarter median house price report (that deals with houses, not apartments) found that preliminary sales numbers in many areas across the State are on the road to recovery, however, property price growth remains relatively subdued.

While the preliminary number of house sales in Brisbane over the June quarter was up seven per cent compared to the March quarter, the standout for increased house sales in South East Queensland was the Logan region, which recorded a 22 per cent increase over the period.

Tennyson Reach Contract Cancelled Due to Flood

Mirvac lost a legal battle in the Queensland Court of Appeal this week, in relation to an apartment at Tennyson Reach that flooded in January. Mirvac had two senior counsel to argue this appeal - it flew up Alan Myers QC from Melbourne and also used a local Senior Counsel -- both very expensive barristers. But that did not assist. The buyer was allowed out of the contract. See Judgment and The Australian.

Soleil Update

Meriton's Soleil building in Adelaide Street, Brisbane, appears to have reached full height. It is tall and skinny. The building is 74 floors, 234 metres, and has 464 apartments. Meriton is not selling the top 10 floors or so, and will rent them out (I suspect on a short term basis).

I have looked at the sales board, and tried to work out the number of apartments for sale. This is my estimate:

Studios - 27 in total, 12 remaining for sale

One bedrooms - 234 in total, 132 remaining for sale

Two bedrooms - 168 in total, 45 remaining for sale

Three bedrooms - 35 in total, 17 remaining for sale

Thus, in total, there are 206 out of 464 remaining for sale, or 44%.

(These numbers assume that the top 10 floors, or 42 apartments, are not for sale.)

So one can conclude that since the launch of the selling campaign for this building in October 2008, 46% of the apartments in the building have sold. At this selling rate, it will take another 2 to 3 years to sell the available unsold apartments in this building. Anyone who buys off-the-plan and needs to sell soon will be competing with the developer selling new stock for some time to come.

The building has some downsides. Having so many apartments, there will always be apartments for sale or rent. The facilities, such as the gym, will have to service a huge number of residents. Image trying to book the 12 seat theatre or the meeting room, when you are competing with 460 other apartments. Also, are there enough elevators? Also, there is no ducted air-conditioning -- there are split system air-conditioning units, with headends in some rooms, and the fan unit located in a service area on the floor.

Example pricing:

• Apt 1802, 1 bed, 51 sqm = $402,000
• Apt 2207, 1 bed, 51 sqm = $426,000
• Apt 2703, 2 bed, 70 sqm = $572,000
• Apt 5701, 2 bed, 80 sqm = $807,000
• Apt 5002, 3 bed, 103 sqm = $852,000

In my view, for this size and quality apartment, the pricing is expensive.

Adjusting property value growth for inflation

Brisbane has been the weakest performing capital city market over recent times with property values down -7.3% from their March 2010 peak. When the results are adjusted for inflation, the fall in values from the March 2008 peak is much more pronounced at -12.3%. Similarly in Perth, the fall from the market peak is more than double (-5.4% versus -11.3%) when the results are adjusted for inflation.

On the flip-side these conditions are likely to impact on negatively geared investors. Given this, RP Data anticipates that investor activity is likely to remain relatively subdued and those investors which are active in the market are likely to have a much greater focus on yield maximisation rather than negatively geared properties. At least for the short term, investors chasing substantial capital gains are likely to be disappointed given the anticipated market conditions.

Source: RP Data Property Pulse

Flood - backflow valves

From a Brisbane City Councillor:

I have been campaigning for months (along with local residents) for Council to take action on backflow valves as a means of potentially reducing some forms of flooding. As you would know, much of the January 2011 flooding in Central Ward was the result of floodwaters travelling back up Council stormwater drains. If backflow valves are installed it is more than likely that in the future that type of flooding could be avoided. While back-flow valves are not a "silver bullet", they at least hold the prospect of reducing future floods in similar circumstances.

The Council has finally agreed to conduct an inquiry, and will be holding some information sessions in September for residents of New Farm and the CBD.

While the dates haven't been set yet, if you want to attend these sessions apparently you have to register. So, I encourage anyone who has an interest to register online. You will be notified when session details are available.

http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/604972/Backflow-Registration

Regards

David Hinchliffe

Councillor for Central Ward

Brisbane City Council

Phone: 07 3403 0254

Fax: 07 3403 0256

Email: central.ward@ecn.net.au

Housing Market Outperforms Shares

From Chris Joye:

"The chart suggests that a national portfolio of housing has comprehensively outperformed all other investment categories over this tumultuous period. What is also fascinating is that AAA-rated Australian government bonds have delivered almost the same returns as Australian shares (plus dividends) with vastly lower risk.

On the question of risk, the table below shows us that there have been five months over the last 11 years where Aussie shares have fallen in value by more than 5% (the worst being a stunning 14% loss). None of the other asset classes have had a single monthly loss of five per cent plus.

This just hammers home the point that if you get your market-timing wrong with shares, you could be underwater on your investment for many years. Think, for example, of all the poor folks who piled into Aussie shares around the market apogee in 2007 (see the peak of the red line in the chart above)."

See Property Observer

Oracle Litigations

There are a number of litigations against people who signed off the plan contracts to purchase apartments in The Oracle development at Broadbeach, and who failed to settle once the building was complete. The developer is now suing the purchasers for breach of contract. One of the trials is partially complete. Some examples:

• South Sky Investments v Prins
• South Sky Investments v Groves & Gough
• South Sky Investments v Ryan

480 Queen St

A new building has been proposed for 480 Queen Street, on the site of the proposed Trilogy Tower. It is an office building. No apartments. 36 levels high. It will block some of the northeastern views of some of the Aurora apartments on the lower floors.

Off The Plan The Tips and Traps

See this article about buying off the plan apartments:

Seven traps for unwary off-the-plan buyers

103 Mary Street - new development

This is a rendering of the new apartment hotel complex being constructed at 103 Mary Street, between the 111+222 hole and RiverCity apartments. 212 Margaret St is shown at the rear. So some people will have their views impacted.

At Vacant Homes, Foraging for Fruit

Things in the USA don't look so good. People are harvesting the gardens of vacant homes. See NYTimes.

Matusik's Blog

Matusik's blog has a number of posts regarding the Brisbane apartment market. matusikmissive.wordpress.com

Annual Change in House Values: USA v Australia

Rentals

After the temporary surge in demand for rental properties following the natural disasters at the start of this year, Queensland’s rental market has returned to a more even keel, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ residential rental survey conducted at the end of June has shown vacancy rates across most of the state returning to more normal levels following the extreme weather conditions and peak demand of earlier this year.

The Residential Tenancies Authority’s (RTA) latest median rents for the June quarter also show total residential bond lodgements easing, as well as rents stabilising, for most major regions across the State.

“In some other much-needed good news for our property market, investors are also again starting to take an interest in Queensland. The latest ABS lending finance figures show the number of investment dwellings financed in Queensland over the June quarter increased about 16 per cent with investors now accounting for 30 per cent of the market.”

In Brisbane City, vacancy rates across the local government area (LGA) have eased to 2.1 per cent however this easing in rental demand occurred in the middle to outer-ring suburbs alone.

Agents in the inner Brisbane suburbs report units are letting much more quickly, with young professionals in particular willing to pay higher rents for inner city living and modern accommodation.

Vacancies are currently taking one to two weeks to relet in the inner suburbs while other parts of Brisbane are taking a fraction longer, according to property managers at REIQ accredited agencies. On average, listings are receiving two to five applicants across the LGA.

Source: REIQ Press Release

What Are Valuers Saying About Brisbane

A report from Herron Todd White this month, that is well worth reading. I have seen real estate agents email the positive parts of this to their mailing lists, leaving out the negatives! With that said, some extracts, but read the full report on the HTW.com.au website.

"So our broad brush call is: Over the past six to twelve months, most markets in SEQ have seen a 5% to 10% fall, or at best remained steady, depending on the sector.

The inner and near city semi prestige and prestige sectors have shown some pain. These are usually stalwart markets with little that can dampen buyer enthusiasm but there are some higher end vendors who are obviously smarting and willing to meet the market as a quickly as possible.

For example: 16 McDonald St Gordon Park – purchased Feb 2008 for $1.022M. Reported recent sale May 2011 $950,000.

It’s also worth noting that our people on the ground are reporting with regular and frightening monotony on a raft of other resales we can’t quote here. Most are showing the magic 5% to 10% fall although some are bucking the trend and dropping further.

For real hurt, look no further than the affordable investor/ first home owner market in areas such as the western corridor. This sector has taken a hit as interest rate rises put fear in the hearts of those who are borrowing on the edge. Inala and Redbank Plains are finding serious and regular falls of 20% on prices achieved twelve months to two years ago. One of our team believes we are back to the early 2007 market in some areas.

If you’re looking for something safe, your best bet right now is an inner suburb traditional cottage. Who would have thougth during the heady days of late 2007 and early 2008 you would be able to pick something up in prestige Paddington for well under $600,000 come mid 2011. This is blue chip real estate my friends, and its selling at prices not seen since early 2007.

High end units in the city have also copped a hiding. A number of resales reported in the very desirable Riparian building for example are a testament to a slow slow market. There were a few buyers who bought off the plan here and looked to have made a handsome profit on completion of this landmark building. Unfortunately for those that held on and are now desperate to sell, the bad news is that they may have lost that upside and then some. As they say, no one ever made a loss selling at a profit.

The flat line performer in the CBD (i.e. read “winner”) seems to be the well located investor end one bedders. Whilst capital growth for this stock has never been glamorous, a ready and eager supply of tenants mostly in the form of overseas students means these properties have been relatively painless in the downswing.

Mid ring property has been having its ups and downs. Family homes here had, until recently, been fairly solid but a few recent sales are now showing buyers are less enthusiastic. Finally, large scale outer suburb projects are also on the wane. Two recent examples from north lakes in Brisbane’s north include:

1 Willandra Pde - Sold in May 2010 for $575,000. now under contract but not unconditional at the time of writing for $530,000. Interestingly the owners also put in a 36 sqm Bali Hut and timber deck since their original purchase.

20 Forrestal Cct - Sold in Feb 2009 for $780k, only to be resold April 2011 for $708k. A very nice house according to our man on the scene.

I know, I know, it all reads doom and gloom and it can be too easy to blame the examples on the conservative valuers peddling bad news, but this just isn’t the case. Our city has had a pretty good run in the property game since 2001 but the soft times are well and truly upon us. While some of our valuers are reporting a trickle of first home buyers back into the market, a serious trend has not yet emerged. On the plus side, our property market is presenting some seriously good opportunities for the cashed up buyer so Brisbane is well worth a look."

Is this misleading conduct by a developer

Developers who sell apartments off the plan want them to settle. When there are unsold apartments at the time of the first batch of settlement, this is even more important -- so that the developer can say that all contracts settled at the contract price.

Here is one trick I came across recently. The developer of high end apartments had a purchaser who could not settle. So the developer purchased the home of the purchaser, for the same price as the contract price of the apartment. Then the purchaser could settle the contract with the developer at contract price. Now, the developer owns a house -- and lists the house for sale, at a price which is less than the developer paid for the house. In effect, the developer is selling the apartment at a discount, but that does not show on the records. Buyers beware!

LionsGate

A small apartment development, called LionsGate, located in Windsor. The website does not say who the developer is! Priced from $367,000.

Reapfield Sells Maidson Heights

If you are thinking of buying a property in Brisbane, why not ask a property consultant in Singapore. For example, Metro Property Group is marketing its Bowen Hills developments in Singapore through Reapfield. They are even advertising in newspapers. One example, above, is the "iconic" Madison Heights development. I wonder if buyers in Singapore know the track record of David Devine and the actual location in Bowen Hills of the property? As reported in the Courier Mail recently, Bowen Hill has 12 traffic bridges. It is not a place that I would want to spend the night.

The image immediately below, from the Reapfield website, shows the proposed Madison Heights location (yellow line) and Chelsea Apartments proposed location (thin red line). Below that is another view of Bowen Hills - Madison and Chelsea are located approximately behind the red circle titled Inner City Bypass.

Eden Apartments in Albion

Eden Apartments are currently in presales. There are a number of buildings, each about 6 levels heigh. Some of the apartments are a good size.

Price ranges:

• 1 bed (55 sqm, small) - $325,000 to $411,000
• 1 bed (larger) - $411,000 to $518,000
• 2 bed, 2 bath - $621,000 to $823,000

Example

• 1 bed plus study, 85 sqm to 87 sqm - $411,000 to $462,000
• 2 bed, 2 bath 115 sqm - $706,000 to $721,000
• 2 bed, 2 bath 116 sqm to 131 sqm - $686,000 to $696,000

The location is borderline industrial. Seems expensive to me when compared with apartments about a year or two old of similar size.

Skyline Apartment Prices Fall

It is not a surprise that the value of apartments in the over-hyped and over-marketed Skyline Towers are not holding up. For example, a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartment sold for for $755,000 in 2008 off-the-plan. It is now listed for sale at $698,000, including all the furniture. This apartment is 142 sqm, and is rented for $850 a week. The apartment itself is a good size and good design, but is crowded out by a bunch of other buildings.

Some other examples:

• Apt 204 sold for $835,000 in 2008; resold for $755,000 this year
• Apt 393 sold for $840,000 in 2004 off the plan; resold for $800,000 this year
• Apt 401 sold for $970,000 in 2007; resold for $925,000 this year.

Hamilton Harbour Tops Out

It looks like two of the Hamilton Harbour apartment buildings by Devine have reached full height. A photo above from Kingsford Smith Drive of two of the towers, with the Brett's Wharf buildings to the right.

High in the High Rise

"Here's another misconception: if you're buying apartments, high-rise is best, and the higher the better. This one, too, has been shot down by the results of research.

Brisbane property analyst Simon Pressley, director of 6-Point Property, has found, contrary to popular belief, that apartments in small complexes outperformed those in high-rise buildings on capital growth.

Meanwhile, analyst Michael Matusik argues persuasively that the common belief that apartments in the higher levels are more valuable than those below is also a myth."

Full story in The Australian

It is hard to react to 6-Point Property's research, because they do not make it freely available. It can be purchased for $1,650. One reason for the better performance of small complexes compared to high rise is that many of the high rise apartments in Brisbane are relatively new, and a number of people (particularly non-Brisbane investors) purchased off the plan at inflated prices. If these buildings were removed from the survey, I wonder if the results would change?

Metro Property Group

There is a rumour that David Devine's Metro Property Group is in the process of selling one of its Bowen Hill's projects to another developer.

Waters Edge

Both towers of Waters Edge on the Brisbane River are now complete.

1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments now selling:

• 1 bed from $499,000
• 2 bed from $549,000
• 3 bed from $899,000

You can pick up a large 3 bedroom with river views for $1.9M or a 2 bedroom with no views for $629,000. (The agent reports, in a comment below, that the two bedroom has river views. It is on level 5, and is 4 apartments back from the river front apartment. It has side views. It also has views of the commercial building next door.)

[photo of Flow on left, and the two Waters Edge buildings to the right]

The same developer, Pradella, built the Flow complex which is next door. It is always a good idea to see what resale apartments are available to compare pricing:

• Two bedroom, 4th floor, river views, 144 sqm - $995,000
• Two bedroom, lower floor, $995,000 (they are dreaming!)
• Two bedroom, rear of building, no views - $615,000 (seems too high to me)
• Two bedroom, on side of building, weird design $675,000
• Three bedroom, ground floor, 190 sqm - $1,000,000

The most recent sales in Flow were:

• Apt 81 (2 bedrooms, with river views) for $1,030,000 (which was slightly more than the off-the-plan price for this apartment).
• Apt 15 (2 bedrooms at rear) $540,000 (capital loss of $25,000 from off-the-plan sales price)
• Apt 48 for $590,000
• Apt 73 for $439,000 (capital loss of $50,000)
• Apt 65 (2 bedrooms) for $525,000 (capital loss of $115,000)
• Apt 62 (3 bedrooms) for $1,150,000

Vivid Kangaroo Point

A new development, Vivid Kangaroo Point, is currently in pre-sales. 19 apartments from $380,000.

Linear Taringa

Aspect Property has launched a small apartment development on the corner of Gailey Road and Sir Fred Schonell Drive. The development is called Linear.

• Two bedroom, two bathroom, 77 sqm internal = $509,000
• Two bedroom, two bathroom, 71 sqm internal, with about 20 sqm balconey = $487,000

This is an old petrol station site, that has been redeveloped. Construction has started and is up to about the 3rd floor. It is on the corner of two busy roads.

Capital Gains and Losses

According to Rismark, the median capital return to property owners since 1990 has been 7.8% per year.

Over the last 20 years, 9.3% of all home owners traded their property for a loss (note that these are pure capital returns, and ignore the rental income that you would have got along the way). This is also gross of all transaction costs, so you can be sure that the net number is higher. Ipso facto, about 90% of owners realise positive gross capital returns on their homes before accounting for rents and costs.

These returns reflect the change in the capital value of a home over time. What they do not tell us is what the home owner’s actual equity, or geared return, would have been. We can comfortably assume that the equity returns are far higher (likewise the losses for the one in 10 folks who get unlucky).

This analysis excluded gross rents, which are currently around 4% to 5% per annum. It also ignores all transaction costs, which sum to around 1% to 2% per annum for the average home owner who stays in a property for seven to eight years.

Source: Chris Joye in Property Observer

House Prices to Fall Further Following Next Interest Rate Rise

An increase in the cash rate will spark house price falls, according to Cameron Kusher, senior research analyst at RP Data. Rents and yields need to increase further to attract investors, he says.

“Yields are not where investors would like them to be… Some cities are doing better, for example units in Brisbane and Sydney,” he says.

See Property Observer

Oracle Broadbeach

A new marketing campaign has been launched by the receivers of The Oracle development at Broadbeach. Take a closer look.

Riparian Update

A three bedroom apartment in Riparian (4801/71 Eagle Street) on level 48 recently sold for $2 million. This is a 314 sqm apartment. It was listed last year for sale at $3.4 million. (The current owner paid just over $1.6 million in 2002.)

The three bedroom apartment next door (Apt 4802) is currently for sale. It has been listed with agents for $3.8 million. Noel Robinson, the architect, paid just over $1.8 million in 2002.

Downstairs, a two bedroom apartment (4702/71 Eagle Street) is listed for auction. See video. This property sold in 2001 for just over $1 million, in 2006 for $1.6 million, and has been on the market for a year. In September, it was listed at $1.6 million, but today's advertising says "disregard all previous pricing.... must be sold."

Apt 4804, with 3 bedrooms, sold in December last year for $2,350,000.

Harry is Happy about Soleil

"FOR "high-rise" Harry Triguboff, it doesn't get much better than this. Despite the downturn in residential property, especially in once white-hot Brisbane, Mr Triguboff says business has rarely been so brisk.

He explains with more than a hint of satisfaction how the Australian property dream is changing -- trading up, he argues, from the quarter-acre block in the suburbs to an eyrie in the centre of town.

His 74-storey Soleil tower, at 280m, will be Brisbane's tallest building by the time it is completed this year. But its record will stand for only three years, as Mr Triguboff is building an even bigger residential tower on the other side of the Brisbane CBD.

Soleil will be Australia's eighth tallest building when it opens later this year, but there are several within metres of each other. Soleil will be able to house 2000 people, right on the edge of the CBD, while it would take about 500 homes, the equivalent of a small suburb, to house them in detached cottages. The Brisbane inner-city high-rise market, where Mr Triguboff will soon be king, has had two major tower proposals withdrawn in the past few years, with developers unable to get either the finance or the customers. "I think a thing like this should be self-funded, because otherwise you have all these banks worrying and pushing you," he said.

"It's hard to say what the market's like, because you build this building for a few years, so when you start it could be very bad and when you finish it could be a lot better."

Property analysts say that, with the limited number of developments this year, the increasing demand predicted by Mr Triguboff means rental rates for apartments in the inner city are likely to rise."

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With 2000 people in Soleil, I hope Harry has included enough elevators!

RP Data Rismark June 2011 Index

The modest overall decline in national dwelling values conceals considerable variation across the capital cities. For example, whereas Brisbane and Perth home values are down 6.3 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, over the last twelve months, property values in Sydney are up 0.5 per cent.

Rismark’s economist, Christopher Joye, added, “We think the RBA is likely to raise rates at least once or twice more to address Australia’s burgeoning inflation problem, which means dwelling values will probably soften a bit further. This should open up attractive investment opportunities.”

“Higher rates means the rental market will tighten beyond its already firm levels, with vacancy rates near all-time lows. In turn, this will drive rents and yields even higher. Over the next year we expect to see wages and disposable incomes continue to rise solidly while house prices flat-line or taper modestly,” Mr Joye said.

Unit markets have continued to outperform detached houses, with unit values recording no change in value over the June quarter compared with a 1.2 per cent fall in (more expensive) house values. A similar result applied over the twelve months to June: unit values were unchanged whereas house values were down by 2.6 per cent.

Mr Lawless said the variation in performance between the two housing types comes back to affordability.

“Across the combined capital cities, median unit prices are $67,000, or 14 per cent, lower than the median house price. In Canberra and Sydney the gap between median house and unit prices is more than 20 per cent. With more Australians seeking to live closer to the city and transport nodes, as well as seeking out more affordable housing options, the superior performance of the unit market makes sense.”

Rismark’s Mr Joye added, “As a conservative guide, dwelling prices tend to track disposable incomes through-the-cycle, or the typical owner’s average 7-8 year holding period. Historically, disposable incomes have expanded at a six per cent per annum pace. Going forward, a more realistic guide is probably around 4-5 per cent per annum. Over the next 10 years, it would not be unreasonable to expect to generate this kind of capital growth in concert with rental yields net of costs of 3-4 per cent annum. Patient folks opportunistically investing in housing are probably going to find the best prices, and valuation fundamentals, that they will have had access to in a long time. Otherwise, we favour variable-rate cash as an asset-class given our long-held forecast that the RBA will raise rates to deal with Australia’s growing inflation problem.”

“The Australian housing market’s demand- and supply-side fundamentals remain healthy. And they will improve further in the year ahead. The one fly in the ointment is interest rates. When the RBA comes to cut them, affordability in this country is likely to be the best we’ve seen in over a decade, which will help fuel a robust recovery and encourage investors to allocate scarce capital to boosting housing supply” Mr Joye said.

See RP Data Press Release

RP Data Report

Values

• Fell by -0.2% during the month of June 2011, the rate of decline is easing – after values fell by -0.5% in March, they fell by -0.4% in April, -0.3% in May and by -0.2% in June. Darwin recorded the greatest fall (-2.8%) and Hobart the greatest increase (+0.9%).
• Over the last quarter, values have fallen by -0.9% across the combined capital cities, with Melbourne the weakest performing market (-1.6%) and Canberra the best performed (+0.5%).
• On an annual basis, values are down by -2.0% with Sydney the only market in positive territory (+0.5%) and Brisbane the weakest (-6.3%).
• The Premium market has been the weakest performer with values down by -5.6% over the year, compared to the most affordable market recording value falls of -1.2% and the broad ‘middle market’ down -1.5%.

Sales Volumes

• Estimated sales volumes are estimated to be -16% below the five year average.
• · Estimated volumes in Sydney, Hobart and Canberra are at above average levels with all other capitals recording volumes below average.

Rents and yields

• Capital city unit rents have increased by 3.6% over the 12 months to June 2011, compared to average annual growth over the past five years of 7.1%.

Time on market and vendor discounting

• The average number of days on market is starting to level however, houses are taking 55 days to sell currently compared to 42 days last year and units were taking 38 days to sell last year and currently take 54 days.
• Vendors are having to discount houses by 6.0% from the initial listing price to achieve a sale currently compared to 5.9% last year and unit vendors are discounting by 6.0% also compared to 5.1% last year.

Property listings

• New and total listings have begun to ease during recent weeks from record highs.
• Whether this is the result of sales or vendors removing their properties from the market remains to be seen. The majority of listings are actually recorded outside of the capital cities.

Consumer sentiment

• Fell to its lowest level since the GFC with optimists now outnumbered by pessimists.
• Poor consumer sentiment is likely to result in ongoing low transaction volumes for properties.

Housing finance

• First home buyers remain relatively inactive.
• Investor activity has improved but remains at low levels.
• The volume of refinances for owner occupiers is up 25% over the year while non-refinances are down -4.2%.

Dwelling Approvals

• Approvals continue to fall. The decline in approvals is much more substantial for houses than it is for units.

Housing Affordability in Brisbane

House prices in capital cities are forecast to stay severely unaffordable for at least a decade.

A study by the University of Canberra and AMP found that median house prices jumped 147 per cent to $417,000 between 2001 and 2011.

Most affordable

#4

Brisbane middle ring

Median:
$335,000

Price/Income 2011:
5.5

Price/Income 2001:
4.8

See ABC News