South City Square in Woolloongabba

A new apartment development in Woolloongabba has been launched, called South City Square.  It is located on Logan Road.

Over 1,000 apartments, across 7 towers, are planned.  Pellicano are involved in this development.

See article here.

Legal Claim Against Meriton

A Meriton construction company is being sued by a body corporate for building defects.

"BILLIONAIRE developer Harry Triguboff is at the centre of a legal battle with a body corporate over who should foot a $2 million repair bill for one of his Southport residential high rises."

Meriton is also the developer of the Infinity and Soleil towers in Brisbane.

See Gold Coast Business News

Index funds

There is often a debate whether it is best to buy shares or property.  My investment focus has been property.  When investing in shares, it seems that index funds (sometimes called exchange traded funds or EFTs) are the way to go.  See recent AFR article on this topic.

Brooklyn or Brisbane?

I can buy a two bedroom apartment in Brooklyn NYC for about the same price as a two bedroom apartment in Brisbane city.  See this listing for example.  Does that make sense?

Buy or Rent?

The AFR recently had an article on whether you are better off renting or buying property.  See article here.

For many people, I believe that renting is better than buying.  These are my reasons:

• known fixed cost per week for renters
• no cost for repairs, rates, property insurance or body corporate fees for rentals
• flexibility and mobility for renters - too many times have I seen people stuck in a property type or location that they don't want any more.  Ownership also makes it harder to move to where better jobs are located.
• purchasing property is for the long term (that is, seven years or more), and many people should not be committing to a property type or location for that period of time
• entry and exit costs are high for purchasing (i.e., stamp duty and agent's commission)
• you get a better property if you rent compared with buying, all outgoings and costs being equal (another way to say this is that most landlords are making a loss, or negatively gearing, and so you are better off than your landlord)
• currently many good choices for renters, and competition by landlords is high
• owners spend more time and effort wasting time and money on repairs, improvements, renovations and gardens, which are rarely recovered on sale; renters have more leisure time

Pain Report - Capital Losses

From RP Data:

The RP Data Pain & Gain report is a quarterly assessment of realised gross profit and loss based on dwelling re-sales over the June quarter of 2014.

• 9% recorded a gross loss from the original purchase price.
• Gross value of the losses associated with these loss making re-sales totalled $398.3 million
• 91% of all June 2014 quarter re-sales recorded a gross profit relative to their original purchase price. The gross profit from these re-sales equated to $14.4 billion.
• 9% of all homes that resold over the second quarter of 2014 recorded a gross loss compared with original purchase price - down from 9.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2014 and much lower than the 11.5% recorded over the June 2013 quarter.
• The gross value of losses on homes re-sold over the quarter was recorded at $398.3 million
• The average gross loss per loss making transaction was $63,097.
• 91% of all re-sales over the June quarter of 2013 transacted at a gross profit, with 30.5% of all re-sales at least doubling their money compared with their original purchase price.
• Gross profit on resales was $14.4 billion
• Average gross profit per profit making transaction was $225,830.
• Download the Pain & Gain report.

See RP Data Website

High Court said builder not liable to body corporate

The High Court has unanimously held that listed developer Brookfield ­Multiplex, the builder of the $60 million Chelsea apartment tower in ­Chatswood Sydney, did not owe a duty of care to the Owners Corporation (in Queensland terminology -- the body corporate) which lost money from defects.  The Owners Corporation, which includes Mantra, appealed an earlier decision in the Court of Appeal in the Supreme Court of NSW and had won.  However, the full bench of the High Court has overturned that decision.

Lawyer Emanuel Confos, for Brookfield Multiplex, said the result would have significant consequences for the building industry.  "This is a landmark decision for the construction industry because it ­clarifies an issue that has been around for many years and that is whether a builder owes a duty in contract and tort for a commercial development," Mr Confos said.  "And I believe the High Court has unanimously decided that no duty in tort is required only duty in contract," he said.

Decision is here.

Spire at 550 Queen Street

After it failed to sell the land, Consolidated Properties has announced that it will be developing a 39 level tower at 550 Queen Street, called Spire.  It will have 340 apartments, which appear to be small one and two bed apartments.

Previously, an office building was planned for the site.  See SMH.

Large number of off-the-plan apartments being marketed in Brisbane

There are a large number of new apartments being marketed by developers in Brisbane at present.  Buyers beware!  Here is a list of just some of them.

Cinque at Kelvin Grove
FV in the Valley (Flatiron Valley?)
Light and Co at West End
CP Residences at Indooroopilly (Central Park Residences)
Arbor at West End
The Highgate at Highgate Hill
Mode at Newstead
Unison at Newstead
Rivers Edge at Breakfast Creek
Habitat West End
Citro at West End
Abian Skyhomes on Alice Street
Spire in the City
Grace on Coronation at Toowong
Boggo Road
The Hudson, at Albion
Spice Apartments, South Brisbane
The Milton
Skyring at Newstead
Newstead Towers
Broadway on Ann in the Valley
Central Village, the Valley
New World Towers in South Brisbane
Riverview Towers at Kangaroo Point
South Point in South Brisbane
Liberte, Kangaroo Point
Yungaba, Kangaroo Point
Hamilton Reach
Proximity Hamilton
Canopy at Bardon
Circa at Nundah
Basse at South Brisbane
Hope Street at South Brisbane
Soda at South Brisbane
Botanica at South Brisbane
Jade at Albion
OneBrisbane at Bowen Hills
The Yards at Bowen Hills
Keynote at West End
River Le at West End
Art House at South Brisbane
Opera at South Brisbane
Hercules at Hamilton

Oversupply of Brisbane Units

There have been a number of articles this year regarding an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane, especially new high-rise in areas close to the city.  A large number of apartment buildings have completed recently, but there are many more on the way.  Most of the new apartments are being sold to foreign investors, and will be rented.

At present, a higher than usual number of apartments are available for rent in Brisbane.  Agents are reporting that it is taking a long time to rent apartments, and that rents are falling.  For example, a very nice riverfront apartment was without a tenant for 4 weeks, and finally rented for $50 a week below the asking rent.  Some owners are offering 4 weeks free rent.  For third-tier apartments, the rents have dropped dramatically.  The situation is not likely to improve any time soon.

When the foreign investors come to sell, they will not be able to sell to other foreigners.  So the pool of potential buyers will be much smaller.  This will cause significant price decreases for resales of apartments.  Currently, many apartments that are not being sold by developers (i.e., not new apartments that have FIRB approval) are taking a long time to sell in Brisbane.

Some articles of note:
Bubble Deflating
Warning on Brisbane apartment boom
Not pretty
High-rise Oversupply?
Prices Down Due to Oversupply
Areas to Avoid
Yield Compression
Mixed Outlook
Prices Plunge

Poor Urban Design for South Brisbane and West End

As previously reported, the government has released a "master plan" for South Brisbane.

The plan has been widely criticised.  In my view, it is a risk buying off-the-plan in South Brisbane and West End at present.

Recent Quay West Sales in Brisbane

Quay West is a great apartment building, overlooking the Botanical Gardens on Alice Street.  A one bedroom apartment in this building is over 70 sqm in total.

Recent sales of one bed apartments (some of these are fully furnished when sold):

Apt 803 - $440,000 Sold in July

Apt 405 - $460,000 Sold in June

Apt 504 - $460,000 Sold in April

Apt 1603 - $510,000 Sold in April

Apt 1705 - $510,000 Sold in April

Apt 605 is currently listed at $465,000, fully furnished, which looks like a good deal.

Spice Apartments at South Brisbane

The Spice Apartments development at South Brisbane is currently being sold off-the-plan.  According to the agents selling these apartments, most have sold.

It is a 14 level development, with two towers sharing a common podium.  The complex overlooks the onramp and tolling infrastructure for the Go-Between Bridge.  It is river front, sort of, with trees and and bikeway between the apartments and the river.  Many of the apartments will have no views, or will only have views of a busy road or industrial buildings (that will probably get redeveloped into apartment or office towers.)  Any city views are likely to be built out.

Example prices:

• One bedroom on level 2 with car space, 54 sqm internal, with balcony and court yard, so total 78 sqm.  No view.  $429,000.
• One bed, one bath, level 2, 49 sqm internal, with balcony and court yard, total 77 sqm, $420,000.
• Two bed, one bath, 1 car, level 12, internal - 63 sqm, total 76 sqm, one bedroom is internal with no windows (so this is really a one bed plus study) - $526,000
• Two bed, two bath, 1 car, level 3, internal - 83 sqm, total 101 sqm - $585,000

In my opinion, these are expensive prices for small apartments that are in a poor location.  Even though only 15 minutes walk to the city, there is not much currently in this area.  It is a long walk to South Bank, even though the sale brochure for the development has lots of South Bank photos.

The body corp fees for the first year are low, around the $3,000 a year mark.  My guess is that these are likely to increase substantially in subsequent years.

Rents for unfurnished apartments are provided by the developer:

• 1 bed - $410 to $480 a week
• 2 bed, 2 bath - $550 to $640 a week
• 3 bed, 2 bath - $850 to $950 a week.

It will be interesting to see if these rents are actually achieved.  You can rent a 110 sqm two bed, two bath apartment at South Bank, with river and park views, fully furnished for $690, so it is hard to see how these rents are possible.

Before buying, I would suggest looking at Vue Apartments, which are diagonally opposite the bridge and river.  Compare actual sales prices and actual rents for similar apartments, and look at this building's financial performance.

Brisbane still under performs

RP Data reports that the Brisbane property market has under performed the combined capitals average since 2008 but is gathering some momentum.

Economic Data remains mixed - RP Data

RP Data reports the following:

Mortgage demand has started to level recently

• The RP Data Mortgage Index (RMI) shows that mortgage demand has begun to level over the past couple of months.
• ABS housing finance data shows a similar trend with the market largely driven by upgraders and investors.

Economic data flows remains mixed

• Population growth is winding down but remains high on an historic basis.
• Dwelling approvals have shifted much higher over the past year and are at their highest ever level on an annual basis.
• With population growth slowing and building approvals remaining high (despite the recent fall) we may see a better relationship between approvals and population growth over the coming years.
• Consumer sentiment has been weak since the Federal Budget but is slowly increasing.
• The unemployment rate has hit 6.4% with employment growth quite slow.
• Mortgage rates remain low with banks competing hard for their share of the home loan business.

W Hotels on old court site

It is reported that W Hotels will manage a new hotel that will soon be developed on part of the old State Courts site on George Street.  The three tower development will include residential apartments. Some may remember that Westin Hotels (a sister company) was to manage a proposed new apartment and hotel development on nearby Elizabeth Street, called Empire Square, that never went ahead.

Rental Pain

The Courier Mail has an article today about potential pain for rental property owners.  "A flood of new apartments being built in Brisbane spells bad news for property investors as rents are likely to soften in the competitive market.  New data from Urbis shows nearly 9000 new apartments will settle in Brisbane between now and 2017."  Confusingly, the article states that not all planned apartments will be built (so how could Urbis predict settlement of such apartments?).  Urbis goes on to say "So we are being cautious about predicting too much supply."

According to the article, Brisbane's inner north is by far the busiest precinct, with 1129 apartments predicted to settle in 2014 and a further 926 apartments next year.  It is claimed that 41% of apartments sold int he inner north in the June quarter were one bedroom apartments.

In my view, one must be careful to generalise here.  There may be many new apartments in certain areas, such as Bowen Hills, but few new apartments in other areas, such as downtown Brisbane or St Lucia.  There may be too many small apartments, and not enough 3 bedroom apartments.  So the oversupply may impact some and not others.

I would be careful buying in the Brisbane Showgrounds redevelopment area.  Although reasonably close to the city and the RBH hospital, there is not much within walking distance.  And there is a huge supply pipeline.  This weekend, Lendlease will release The Yards, the next stage of this redevelopment.  The development does not include any large parks, schools, kindergartens, supermarkets or the like.

Project Aparment

The Australian newspaper has a lift out regarding buying and investing in new apartments.  See ProjectApartment.

Housing Boom No Big Economic Threat

From the AFR on Friday, 5 September 2014, p. 17:  "Rising housing prices in Australia require monitoring by regulators but the risk posed to the financial system, are nowhere near as great as in the UK, which is approaching bubble territory.  That's the view of Charles Dallara, who is chairman of the Americas region for the Partners Group.  ... The housing market in Australia is relatively self contained."

Place Apartment Report

Place has released its June quarter Inner Brisbane Apartment Report.  Place also has a property blog.

Which Properties to Avoid

This is a good article by Yardney that sets out which types of investment properties to avoid.  I agree with his lists:  Know Which Properties to Avoid.

Sunland's Toowong Proposal - Grace

Sunland (who developed Q1 and Circle on Cavill on the Gold Coast, and who is developing Abian in  Alice Street) has released pictures showing three towers on its Toowong site.  This is the old ABC studio site.   The development is to be called Sunland's Grace.  (I would have thought that Sunland's Graceland would have been a better name.)

The three towers are a little out of place in Toowong in my opinion.

They are mostly apartments:

Tower A

• 1 Bedrooms: 20
• 2 Bedrooms: 66
• 3 Bedrooms: 40

Tower B will be the same as Tower A.

Tower C 

• 1 Bedroom - 130
• 2 Bedrooms - 104

Brisbane Apartment Prices Down Slightly in August

From RP Data's months report for August 2014:

According to today’s results, with rental rates rising at a slower pace than dwelling values RP Data expects to see a compression in rental yields across each of the capital cities. The only regions where yields have moved higher over the past 12 months have been across the Adelaide and Hobart apartment markets.

Across the combined capital cities, the typical gross yield on a house has reduced from 4.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent over the past twelve months. Mr Lawless said the most significant yield compression is taking place in Sydney and Melbourne.

Investors are currently comprising their largest proportion of new mortgage commitments since late 2003. In fact, investor loan commitments have accounted for more than 38 per cent of all mortgage lending for nine consecutive months, the longest period ever that investment lending has held above that level.

“Investors are mostly concentrated across the Sydney and Melbourne apartment markets where capital gains have been strong but yields have been pushed very low. Potentially there are better investment returns to be had in the smaller capital cities where the growth trend is less mature and yields are also healthier.” Mr Lawless said.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 August 2014):

August 2014 - down 0.5%

Quarter - up 1.6%

Year to Date - up 2.6%
Year on Year - up 5.6%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $389,250

The Milton

FKP's The Milton development is growing over Milton Station.  Workmen tell me you get a good view of the train line and the XXXX brewery from the apartments.  This is being marketed as a luxury development, but I wonder what residents will think when they move in.

Austin on Grey Street

Austin on Grey Street is almost fully built.  The rental campaign has started.  A 2 bed 1 bath apartment on a high floor with "breathtaking views" is listed for rent at $550 a week.  My guess is that this is a bait & switch offer, and that you will not be able to rent an apartment with "breathtaking views" at this rent.  I suspect that the photos in the advertisement are not from this apartment, because the same photos are used for all apartments advertised for rent.  A small two bedroom two bath is listed at "from" $640 a week unfurnished.  This building is very close to a major traffic intersection.

It is worth considering other established buildings, such as Arbour on Grey.  An excellent 3rd level, 2 bed, 2 bath with park & river views is listed for rent fully furnished at $690 a week, much better value in my opinion.

Australians Investing in Brooklyn

I recently came across an article from the NY Times from November 2013, discussing how Australians are investing in residential real estate in Brooklyn, NY.  It is titled G'Day from Bushwick.  It is worth reading.

South Brisbane Redevelopment

If you are thinking of buying in South Brisbane, you should first look at the Kurilpa Urban Renewal Master Plan, published by the Brisbane City Council:

http://kurilparenewal.com.au/

This Plan will have a big impact on views, and it also gives an idea of how many apartments will be built in the next decade in this area.  See video.

Rent Without An Agent

If you engage a real estate agent to look after your property rental, the costs can be rather high compared with the service actually received.  Typically, the cost is a weeks rent to find a tenant, plus GST, and then 8.8% to collect the rent and do the ongoing management.  On rent of $550 a week, assuming that you have a tenant change once a year, the cost is over $3,000 a year.

If you live near your rental property, and don't mind learning how to legally comply with rental laws (the RTA website has good information), then Rent My Estate is a good service for landlords.  It helps manage the realestate.com.au advertising process, and is expanding into other programs for landlords (such as recording rents received).  Readers of this blog will receive a $20 discount via this link shared by a reader - thanks John.  The savings year on year could be substantial, if you are prepared to put in the time yourself to do things properly.  There is also a good blog on that site.

Top Yields

Today's paper had a chart with the top rental yields for inner-city Brisbane.  All were apartments.  A summary of some of the data:

• Spring Hill - based on 170 sales, median sale is $380,000, median asking rent is $485, so indicative gross yield is 6.6%
• Brisbane city - based on 666 sales, median sale of $500,000, rent $600, so a yield of 6.2%
• Woolloongabba - 86 sales, sale price of $400,000, rent $465 so yield of 6%
• The Valley had an indicative yield of 5.6%
• South Brisbane had an indicative yield of 5.4%

These figures are a little rubbery.  The apartments being sold may not be the same apartments listed for rent.  The rent is the asking rent, not the rent achieved.  The figures do not take into account vacancy.  And the sales price does not include stamp duty.

Take the following example, of an apartment sold for $431,000 and then rented furnished for $550 a week.  On a simple calculation using these numbers, the yield is 6.63%.  If stamp duty of $13,510 is added, the real sales price is $444,510, so the yield changes to 6.43%.  Once letting agents fees, body corporate fees and rates are taken into account, the yield drops to 4.5%.  And this does not include vacancies and repairs.

I recommend focusing on net yield, after expenses.  For a one bedroom apartment, you should aim for a net yield of 5%.  For a two bedroom, aim for a net yield of 4.5%.  For a three bedroom, 4%.

Blog Statistics

Looking at the number of views of this blog since 2007, December is the month with the lowest number of readers, year on year.  My guess is that less people are doing research or are considering buying an apartment in Brisbane in December.

When should I buy? When should I sell?

The Brisbane inner city apartment market is somewhat strange at present.  Some points to note:

• I mentioned in a recent post that there were fewer apartments listed for sale than in recent times.  That is the case for resales of existing apartments.
• There is a large potential increase in the number of inner city apartments, due to a large number of high rise apartments being developed.
• With spring, more apartment owners are likely to list their apartments for sale.
• Rents are down, vacancy rates are up.
• Sydney and Melbourne are or have boomed.  Brisbane has not.  It is still behind its peak 5 years ago.
• Future capital growth is uncertain, but apartments are currently selling at good prices due to lack of stock available and low interest rates.
• My prediction is that in 3 months time, prices will decrease slightly.  So now may be a good time to sell, but an uncertain time to buy.

High-rise Brisbane

A newspaper article by Matusik in the Courier Mail today reflected on potential changes to the Brisbane inner city apartment market:

"Brisbane is set for an increase in the supply of new inner-city digs.  Brisbane could well face an oversupply of downtown apartment stock.  And that increase in stock might more resemble a tsunami in terms of its impart on the market and potential investment outcomes.

For the past five years, the Brisbane market has been undersupplied, with an underlying demand of about 9000 new dwellings across Brisbane.  However, when we break down future demand by market segment, going rental demand (those who occupy a significant percentage of inner-city apartments) appears likely to fall.  And Brisbane's future demand will more likely be deriven by the increasing downs and retirement markets.  Those folk are, for the main, not enticed by large, high-rise complexes.

Rents are down, the vacancy rate is increasing and some resales in recently completed inner-city apartment buildings are already selling for losses.

Currently, the vacancy rate in Brisbane city is 4.2%.  Two years ago it was 1.2%.

And there are now 276 properties (as at June) for rent in Brisbane/Spring Hill, compared with just 48 two years ago.  For the first time in five years, rents have fallen."

Boom to Bust

I'm watching Australian property: Boom to Bust on  http://www.afr.com/videos/business/australian-property-boom-to-bust-xjbwt3bzqu973akn8pmyigimgj7hl7ql.html via @FinancialReview

Buyer Misses Out Because Notice sent to real estate agent

A recent Supreme Court of Queensland case shows that it is important to be precise when following contractual provisions.  A buyer and seller sign an REIQ contract of sale.  The contract includes a provision that the buyer must give notice to the seller that the building and pest inspection has been satisfied by 5pm on a particular day, and if such notice is not given by this time, then the seller can terminate.  The contract says that notice can be given by fax to the seller or the seller's solicitor.

The buyer's solicitor gave notice at 4.57pm to the seller's real estate agent, not the seller's solicitor.  So the seller terminated the contract at 5.07pm.  This termination by the seller was considered to be valid.

See Simpson v. Jackson [2014] QSC 191

Property Clock

"However I like Brisbane at the moment; it’s the capital city with the strongest potential for capital growth. It’s at about 7.30 on the clock, with plenty of well-priced stock around if you know where to look."

See MRD Partners