Gold Coast Sinking Under Apartments Glut

The front page of the AFR on Wednesday, 9 March 2011:

"Gold Coast Sinking in Units Glut"

Summary:

• 2000 apartments worth an estimated $2 billion listed for sale
• few buyers
• dire oversupply
• only 300 apartments are selling on average each year
• between 5 and 7 year supply of apartments
• high asking prices and a reluctance by banks to lend had compounded the oversupply problem
• NAB less likely to lend to the Gold Coast apartment market
• Mr Korda, receiver for The Oracle, estimates average apartment price for the past 10 years has been about $400,000, while the average price for an Oracle unit is $1.2M.
• Soul will add to the glut, where the average asking price for the top third of the 77 storey building is $3.87 million.
• "If you have a $1 million apartment, you could probably only get bank finance for $360,000" Mr Korda said.
• Its a price point and liquidity issue.

RP Data Video Report

This is worth watching:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeZUSUU1AYs

REIQ Sales Report

Region	Median Sale Q4.10	Qtrly change	Median Sale 12mths Q4.10	Median Sale 12mths Q4.09	1yr change
BNE (SD)	$380,000	1.3%	$379,950	$362,000	5.0%
BNE (LGA)	$400,500	-1.8%	$407,000	$386,500	5.3%
AUCHENFL	$447,500	4.1%	$430,000	$430,000	0.0%
BNE CITY	$485,000	-4.9%	$460,000	$423,500	8.6%
CHERMSIDE	$415,000	8.1%	$426,250	$407,500	4.6%
The VALLEY	$375,500	-4.9%	$400,000	$402,500	-0.6%
INDO	$460,000	2.4%	$465,000	$435,000	6.9%
KANGAROO PT	$408,000	-25.8%	$505,000	$450,000	12.2%
NEW FARM	$531,500	4.2%	$525,000	$460,000	14.1%
PADDO	$407,500	N/A	$420,000	$444,000	-5.4%
Sth BNE	$472,500	2.3%	$445,000	$399,250	11.5%
SPRING HILL	$391,063	10.9%	$390,000	$390,000	0.0%
ST LUCIA	$447,065	5.2%	$440,000	$448,750	-1.9%
TARINGA	$427,500	-2.8%	$426,750	$399,500	6.8%
TOOWONG	$407,000	-4.3%	$435,500	$415,000	4.9%
WEST END	$520,000	-3.0%	$530,000	$509,000	4.1%

Construction Costs

Quantity Surveyors, BMT, have published a construction cost table.

See www.bmtqs.com.au/Email/mav-29/ConstructionCosts.aspx

For a medium quality Brisbane highrise, the construction costs are about $2000 a sqm metre.

Fairfax Says, Don't Trust Real Estate Agents

Fairfax, which earns a large part of its revenue from real estate agents advertising on Domain and in the SMH and The Age, warns not to trust real estate agents.

"Don't take the word of an agent about what your property is worth. Make up your own mind through research or, if you're still unsure, pay to have a professional valuation carried out on your property. That will cost you between $400 and $600."

Full Story

REIQ Queensland Unit Report

"The Queensland unit and townhouse market held its ground over the December quarter last year, even as the number of investors and first home buyers remained relatively subdued.

Completing a trend throughout 2010, the last three months of the year were characterised by lower overall buyer demand, particularly from the type of buyers who typically target the unit market.

Similar to the house market over the December quarter, Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) figures show unit sales across the State easing over the quarter however some regions fared better than others.

“The unit and townhouse market at the end of last year was impacted by less overall demand from investors as well as the lower number of first home buyers in the market compared to the same period in 2009,” REIQ acting CEO Ian Murray said.

“Although we have experienced a number of natural disasters in Queensland in the beginning of 2011, it is hoped that the steady interest rate environment and the stable property pricing that now appear to be in play will result in a strengthening unit and townhouse market by year’s end.”

...

In Brisbane and surrounds broadly, a drop in the number of unit and townhouse sales occurred predominantly within the $350,000 to $500,000 price bracket which is the price range usually targeted by first-timers and investors.

The inner city continues to be the most sought after for units in Brisbane with Brisbane City recording 76 preliminary sales, New Farm recording 48 preliminary sales, and Fortitude Valley recording 33 over the period.

Over the December quarter on the Gold Coast it was the bottom and top end of the market that performed the best with preliminary sales increasing in the sub $250,000 price bracket and the $1 million-plus price bracket compared to the September quarter. Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach were the star performers with each recording 20 more preliminary sales than the previous quarter.

On the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Beach and Caloundra recorded increases in preliminary sales numbers, while the region as a whole saw unit sales numbers hold steady."

Reaction to The Economist article

The Economist reports that Australian house prices are 56% overvalued.

Reaction:

Chris Joye on ABC's PM program and Yahoo

See Australian Property Bubble

56% over-valued!

"Australian house prices remain the most overvalued in the world, according to the latest quarterly ranking of global house prices by The Economist magazine.

Based on a historical gauge of home prices to rents between 1975-2010, the magazine estimates that Australian residences are 56 per cent over-valued, exceeding the 54 per cent over-priced rate in Hong Kong and 48 per cent in France.

"There may be good reasons for Australian prices to have risen so far, but people made similar, and ultimately incorrect, arguments for the run-up in prices in the West,"The Economist said in a statement accompanying the survey's release."

See SMH

Save West End

See www.savewestend.org

Colliers Research Report - Brisbane Apartments Q4 2010

Here are some interesting extracts from the recently released Colliers Brisbane Apartments Q4 Research Report that focuses on off-the-plan sales in the inner Brisbane area.

"Transaction activity in the new Inner Brisbane Apartment market is currently being driven principally by demand from investors. Recently owner-occupiers have been largely absent from the market due in part to expectations of flat prices in the short to medium term, higher borrowing costs and the removal of fiscal stimulus measures.

Currently investors are accounting for 80-90% of all transactions in the new Inner Brisbane apartment market. Investor demand - which is driven largely by rental return and expected capital appreciation - is even stronger for affordable stock (less than $650,000). Notably, the market generally is strong for price-pointed affordable stock.

Returns, which ultimately drive transaction activity for investors, are highly sensitive to both rental values and borrowing costs. Currently, both of these variables are delicately balanced, with rental values sensitive to current and future levels of supply and borrowing costs dependent on the bank’s cost of capital and macroeconomic factors such as inflation. In the near term, investor returns are likely to be driven by rental income rather than capital growth.

Given the current market imbalance, stemming mostly from elevated supply in Inner Brisbane, owner occupiers have become increasingly cautious before committing to purchase. In addition, there is now less urgency to purchase as the strong levels of capital growth witnessed in recent years have dissipated.

Despite the aforementioned threats to performance, the fundamentals of the new Inner Brisbane apartment market remain reasonably solid and underlying demand has held up well. This is reflected by the number of unconditional sales over 2010, which are well above trend levels. However, the ability and/or willingness of both investors and owner-occupiers to purchase has been eroded by increased borrowing costs and expectations in the near term of flat prices and limited rental growth. Whilst some rental markets will be influenced in the short term by home owners displaced by the floods, a sustained increase in tenant demand will be required to deliver solid levels of rental growth.

The annual demand for new apartments in Inner Brisbane is rising, as reflected by the number of unconditional sales reported during 2010 (1,433). The number of transactions in the year to December 2010 is now at its highest level since December 2005 and is well above the long term average for this market. Similarly, demand continued at trend levels over the final quarter of 2010, with 339 unconditional sales.

On the supply side, the number of new apartments available for sale in Inner Brisbane rose to 2,228 during Q4 2010, representing an increase of 24% from the previous quarter. More importantly, available supply is now at its highest level in over 10 years and is well above previous highs observed in 2002 and 2004 (circa 1,500 apartments). Current levels of available supply in Inner Brisbane represent 19 months of demand, based on the average number of unconditional sales witnessed over 2010.

Like many property markets – both residential and commercial - the New Inner Brisbane Apartment market is experiencing the impacts of a misalignment between the business cycle and development cycle. Economic conditions turned down sharply in 2009 and are yet to fully recover, whilst the supply pipeline has retained its strength, resulting in a significant market imbalance.

Most of the new apartments currently for sale in Inner Brisbane are located in the CBD and Inner North, which account for 34% and 41% of the total respectively. Additionally, when we include our estimates of apartments which are likely to be released during 2011, the Inner North and CBD continue to account for the largest share of supply.

The weighted average price of unconditional sales has been trending downward since late 2008. Despite above trend levels of demand during 2010, prices have continued to fall, although the pace of decline has eased significantly. Continued recent falls in the weighted average sale price are a reflection of the large proportion of price pointed affordable stock that transacted during 2009 and 10. The weighted average price of unconditional sales for Inner Brisbane during Q4 2010 was $556,200, a moderate increase from the previous quarter.

The unconditional sales of new apartments in Inner Brisbane during Q4 2010 were comprised largely of affordable stock, with 84% of transactions involving properties less than $650,000 in price. More specifically, 42% of the unconditional sales in the fourth quarter involved properties less than $450,000 in price. Evidently, purchasers continue to be very price conscious and this trend is likely to continue in the near term. Fourth quarter transactions in Inner Brisbane were dominated by one and two bedroom stock, with each category accounting for 45% of the unconditional sales reported.

The number of unconditional sales in the Brisbane CBD rose substantially over the final quarter of 2010, increasing to 94, which is more than twice the average witnessed during 2010 (45). Most of the sales were achieved by Meriton projects, with Infinity and Soleil accounting for 61 and 30 sales respectively. Furthermore, the majority of transactions involved two and one bedroom apartments, with 65% and 21% respectively of the total. The CBD precinct achieved 28% of the sales reported for the new Inner Brisbane Apartment market during Q4 2010 and 12% of the 2010 total. In annual terms there were 179 unconditional sales for the Brisbane CBD during 2010.

The CBD precinct represents a large component of available supply in Inner Brisbane, with 34% of the total (758 apartments). Supply levels are expected to rise substantially during 2011 due to the expected release of some 875 units.

Future Projects

Colliers International Research has estimated approximately 4,000 apartments will be released within Inner Brisbane during 2011.

Approximately 45% of this supply is expected to be located within the Inner North precinct. Madison on Mayne will release the largest number of apartments to the market (286).

The CBD precinct is likely to receive 21% of the potential supply with Camelot providing 420 apartments.

Resales of Existing Apartments

• During the third quarter of 2010, the number of apartments (new and established) which settled in Inner Brisbane fell by 12% to 1,191.
• The number of settlements in Q3 2010 was significantly lower (-23%) than the equivalent quarter of 2009 (1,357).
• Buyers continue to be very price conscious, as reflected by the large number of settlements involving affordable stock, with almost 80% involving apartments less than $600,000 in price."

Metro 21 Sales

From Harcourt City Sales, regarding Metro 21 on Mary Street:

Apartment 803 SOLD - $321,000 Details: 1 BED 1 BATH 1 STUDY No CAR One bedroom apartment with study alcove on level 8. 'C' design - Total area 60sqm - 53sqm internal. Apartment 1901SOLD - $500,000 Details: 2 BED 2 BATH 1 CARTwo bedroom apartment with ensuite on level 19.'A' design - Total area 107sqm - 84sqm internal. Single car space.

Apartment 1401 SOLD - $495,000 Details: 2 BED 2 BATH 1 CAR Two bedroom apartment with ensuite on level 14. 'A' design - Total area 107sqm - 84sqm internal. Single car space.

Australand's New Riverfront Project

"LISTED property developer Australand will launch a $400 million riverside project in Brisbane’s Northshore precinct this month – the first major new development since January’s flood devastation.

The $55 million first stage of the Hamilton Reach project features 78 residential apartments across two five-storey buildings and will initially create up to 80 full time construction jobs. Once complete, the Northshore development will comprise around 800 apartments and townhouses across 530 metres of elevated riverfront living, about 6 kilometres from Brisbane’s CBD.

Australand has also commenced construction on its controversial $160m Yungaba development at Kangaroo Point last year and is close to releasing the first stage of luxury residences within the heritage-listed Yungaba House building.

The Promontory stage of Yungaba is around 60 per cent sold totalling $30 million. The project was initially met with some resistance from the community, particularly the Yungaba House Action Group who believed the redevelopment of the heritage building wasn’t in the interest of the public. Fulcher says the protests are well behind the company and the project will preserve the cultural value."

See Brisbane Business News

"Pressure Grows on Gold Coast"

Headline in AFR on Thursday: "Pressure Grows on Gold Coast".

"Receivers are expected to add almost 500 units to the beleaguered Gold Coast market this year, increasing pressure on one of Australia's most fragile residential sectors. ... Many just completed projects were aimed at the middle to high-end and sold at the peak of the market in 2007. The GFC wiped 20 to 50% off values in some cases with the glut of new high-end stock forecast to cause further double-digt price reductions... ... 122 new apartments were sold in the December quarter. "

SQM Research is quoted: "We see this market as being highly susceptible to any further interest rate rises, which could mean that bargains found today could certainly be an even greater bargain tomorrow."

See photo

HTW Month in Review - March 2011

The HTW Month in Review for March 2011 has the following advice:

"In Brisbane it means check your pricepoints, shore up your rental base and see if you can value add. One sector that achieves all three is near city second hand units. These little treasure chests are normally in a three storey walk up design with a couple of bedrooms and a garage or two. This is all within an easy stroll of the really desirable stuff like shops and restaurants. Think Paddington, Auchenflower, Ascot, New Farm, West End and so on. In fact, draw a line around the CBD at about the 5km mark and start hunting. If you can feed off demand from a nearby university or hospital, all the better. If you can also get close to the café centres then you’re on a winner. It is still possible to land yourself in one of these gems for sub $400,000 and it’s amazing what a lick of paint and some new carpets can do for such little cost. If your dollar is a bit tighter try the same sector further out but close to shops and transport. All in all these units give you plenty of long term upside with capital growth and rental return pretty much a sure thing."

"And now, the caveat. We are witnessing a few eager beavers leaping onto flood affected property in the hopes of landing a bargain. We at Herron Todd White Brisbane have been considering discount rates of approximately 10% to 20% for the new wetlands but it must be remembered that there is now a whole heap of potential purchasers who will take years (if ever) to come back to flood effected property. If the 1974 example is set to repeat, there may need to be a generational change in buyers before the market returns to former glories relative to the non flood bricks and mortar. Make your investment a wise one when you start to consider the long term grow."

Gold Coast:

"Prudent buyers are seeking out prime beachside locations and purchasing both units and dwellings at prices up to 50% discount from there peak in late 2007.

The ‘Buyers Market’ which has been created by and oversupply properties has seen a steady decline in value levels throughout late 2010 and into 2011 with Iocal agents reporting buyers are willing to purchase if they feel a large enough discount has been given. This is very evident with local agents advising cash contracts being offered at open homes which are not subject to finance."

AMP Capital Steps In To Vision Site

AMP Capital has provided financing to property developer Billbergia Group to allow it to acquire the Vision site in Brisbane (next door to 212 Margaret Street) from Austcorp, which is in liquidation. The purchase price for the hole that was to be the 72 storey Vision apartment building was $40 million.

RP Data - Rismark January Report

Here are some extracts from the latest RP Data Rismark report:

Disruptions caused by natural disasters and low sales volumes have resulted in soft market conditions across the Australian capital cities. Capital city values were down -1.6 per cent (s.a.) while the rest-of-state markets saw a -1.2% (s.a.) tapering in values.

Rismark's joint Managing Director Ben Skilbeck added, "There are growing signs of a soft recovery in the housing market after six months of flat dwelling values since May 2010. Housing credit growth looks to be rising a little, and the early auction clearance rate data in February has been a demonstrable improvement over the sub-50 per cent clearance rates at the end of last year. Our forecasting model implies low single digit capital gains in 2011 based on the assumption that the RBA tightens monetary policy further However it is noteworthy that the futures market is not pricing in the first full interest rate increase until February 2012. If the RBA stays on the sidelines in 2011 there will be material upside risks to our forecasts."

Over the twelve months to the end of January, Perth (-3.8 per cent), Brisbane (-3.7 per cent) and Canberra (-0.6 per cent) recorded a decline in home values.

Brisbane had a 5.2% decline in apartment prices over the past twelve months.

See RP Data Press Release and Domain article and Courier Mail

RP Data's Quarterly Review

From RP Data's Quarterly Review for the December 2o1o Quarter, released February 2011:

Overall, the fourth quarter of 2010 has been characterised by continuing soft conditions within the residential property market whilst Australia's economic conditions are the envy of many other developed countries. For 2011 we are forecasting minimal property value growth as the market continues to transition out of the growth phase and from a market favouring the vendor to one where buyers are back in the driver's seat.

• Brisbane's capital gains have been well below the combined capital city average since the start of 2009. Compared to Brisbane's longterm and medium term gains, the last 12 months has recorded a very weak performance.
• Average discount levels currently sit at 8.6 percent for houses and 6.6 percent for units and at the same time during 2009 discount levels were recorded at 5.4 percent for houses and 4.5 percent for units.
• Houses in Brisbane are currently taking an average of 60 days to sell whilst units take 55 days. In comparison, 12 months prior houses took 40 days and units 37 days to sell.
• Of those Brisbane dwellings sold during the last year vendors had on average owned houses for 8.1 years and units for 6.4 years.
• Brisbane's population was estimated to sit at just above 2 million persons at June 2009 and has grown at 2.7 percent over the 12 months, or by an estimated 52,104 persons.
• During the last 12 months, value growth has been significantly lower than five year and ten year average levels with house values falling by 1.1 percent and unit values falling by 0.2 percent. Across the capitals, only Perth has recorded lower capital growth during the year.

• There has been an improvement in unit rentals during the last quarter, increasing by 6.9 percent whilst house rents have softened by 1.0 percent.
• With rents easing over the last year they remain well below their peak of $413/week for houses whilst unit rents are currently at an all-­‐time high.

• Gross rental yields have generally been falling since the beginning of 2009 however, there has been some recent improvement with yields recorded at 4.3 percent for houses and 5.3 percent for units.

Flood Map

Here is another Brisbane flood map for January 2001. It does not easily tell you which buildings had basements that filled with water.

Soleil Marketing

A sign in the Soleil window has the following information.

Vendor finance - 5%

Prices as at January 2011

Studio - from $341,000 - estimated rent $330 to $380 per week

1 bedroom no parking - from $363,000 - estimated rent $400 to $470 per week

2 bedroom with parking -from $550,000 -estimated rent $550 to $650 per week

2 bedroom plus study with parking - from $659,000 - estimated rent $600 to $700 per week

3 bedroom with double parking - from $840,000 - estimated rent $800 to $950 per week.

Expected occupancy dates - levels 2 to 39: mid 2011. levels 40 to 64: early 2012

Compare rents in Admiralty Towers One, nearby.

1 bedroom, furnished with carpark - $520 per week

2 bedroom, unfurnished with carpark - $550 per week

2 bedroom, furnished, with car park & river views - $640 per week

So I think that Meriton's rent estimate is a little optimistic.

They are offering a 7% rent guarantee for 5 years on the 1 bedrooms. That suggests that the sales price is overpriced.

Devine Half Year Results

Extracts from presentation to investors:

• Strong market response to Hamilton Harbour project with third tower sales progressing well
• Hamilton Harbour (Towers One & Two) construction advancing well, with construction of third tower targeted for mid-2011 commencement
• Hamilton Harbour has continued to attract strong sales and enquiry with: - 92% of apartments in the first two stages at unconditional contract status, and 49% of Stage 3 now sold and unconditional
• Hamilton Harbour Tower One is progressing well with structural cycles completing verticals up to floor 14 and slabs up to floor 12
• Tower Two is close to entering structural cycles which will see the structure advance noticeably from this point in the coming months
• First apartments expected to be completed by December 2011

• New opportunity secured; 107 apartment project in Teneriffe, Brisbane CBD fringe (Commercial Road - 107 apartments (1 and 2 bedroom only), marketing to commence in second half of 2011)
• New project signals Devine’s ability to apply high density residential capabilities to mid-scale, medium density opportunities

Receivers Move into Outrigger Noosa apartment development

Another Noosa property development has collapsed. This time, it is the Viridian Noosa Resort & Spa. This is a resort, in the hills behind Noosa, that had 198 apartments. Less than 40 were sold in four years -- leaving a massive 160 unsold.

This is not a surprise. The development was not in a great location, a walk up the hill from Hastings Street. The pool area is unimpressive. Most of the rooms look at an internal driveway, or scrublands. No ocean views here. See this review. The price was about $550,000 to $700,000 for a one bedroom apartment with no view.

Viridian is managed by Outrigger, and was developed by Leighton and Macquarie.

Other recently failed Noosa projects include: Elysium Noosa, Noosa Sanctury, Noosa Northshore, Noosa Beach Road (selling well below list price) and Noosa Firstlight. See SmartCompany.

Macrossan, Soleil and Skyline

The photo above shows, from the left, the tops of Macrossan Apartments, Soleil (under construction), Skyline, then Admiralty Quays and River Place apartment.

The photo below shows, from the left, Soleil and then Macrossan Apartments. You can glimpse Skyline in between. The entry way in the bottom centre is the Macrossan Apartments lobby.

Pets and Apartments - A different spin

Contrary to popular wisdom, having a pet in your apartment during an open home when trying to sell it will help. See Pets Help Sell Manhattan Apartments.

Mosaic The Valley

Leightons has released a new representative image for the Mosaic The Valley apartment project on Ann Street. It is much blander with less greenery than previously visioned. The building appears to be closer to road, as the footpaths are narrower. The new image is above. The old image is below, and an older view is located here.

Mosaic is being developed by Leighton, which owns about half of Devine and is a constructing Hamilton Harbour with Devine.

Mosaic was launched in October 2009. It has 212 apartments, most of which are relatively small. Advertised today as 1 bedrooms starting at $365,000 and two bedroom starting at $540,000. No pool.

Australand reports...

Mr Fehring, Australand's executive general manager, residential, is reported in the AFR today as saying the margins were improving. However, the Queensland floods had "dampened activity and sentiment in an already subdued market."

Sunland Cautious

A headline in the AFR today: "Sunland cautious about year ahead." The story has the following information:

• Sunland remains cautious as buyer activity plateaus and uncertainty about the economy prevails.
• Consumers have adjusted their price points and are more cautious and conservative.
• Sunland is not building any Gold Coast high rise, and plans for a residential tower in Labrador have been shelved due to 1200 new units languishing on the market.
• The Carrington apartment project on Alice Street in Brisbane is well timed, with little competition for upmarket owner occupier-style CBD projects due for completion in 2012-13.
• Affordability has been a key issue. Discounts of 20 and 30 percent have been offered to secure transactions.

Gold Coast Real Estate Ad

Well, this is an adventurous way to advertise a property. See You Tube.

Looking at Devine

The AFR reports today that Leighton Holdings is considering selling its under performing investments such as it 49% shareholding in property developer Devine.

See also Reuters and The Australian

Investing in the Brisbane Property Market?

If you are planning on investing in the Brisbane property market, then take care! This blog focuses on apartments, primarily in inner city Brisbane. Some thoughts:

1. There are less overseas students wanting to rent apartments this year. This trend will continue.

2. There are less investors willing or able to purchase apartments, particularly high end apartments.

3. A number of people in their 50s and 60s, who may have considered purchasing an apartment to live in (downsizing) or as an investment are not buying at present. Either their super funds have less money than they hoped, they are more risk adverse, or banks will not lend. Also, people who were looking at riverfront apartments have paused buying decisions due to the floods.

4. There are a huge number of apartments on the way. At current sales rates, it will take years to sell these apartments. Many are small 1 or 2 bed apartments. Would you want to live in them? See list of apartments currently being built or being sold.

5. Many are predicting no capital growth this year; some a predicting 10% decrease in values, some predicting 35% decrease in values. This makes buyers nervous. Many are waiting. Maybe prices will not go down -- who knows? But there is no urgency in buying, and those who are making offers on investment properties are doing so at a significant discount to the list price. So sellers are not selling, and the number of apartments listed for sale is increasing. The only sellers who are selling are those who are dead, heading for bankruptcy, are bankrupt, are getting divorced or have lost their job. So it is hard to work out what the market price for a property (willing but not desperate seller; willing but not overly keen buyer) is actually doing at present. Maybe if salaries increase and unemployment does not decrease, then prices will go up? I hear that 25 year old storemen and labours in central Queensland are earning $150,000 a year plus overtime -- and are buying investment properties.

6. Rental returns on apartments are average. Interest rates, council rates, water charges and body corporate levies are increasing, thus decreasing net returns. This decreases property values.

7. The Gold Coast is dead dead dead. There are a huge number of unsold apartments in The Oracle. Juniper's Soul is coming up to settlement soon, and smart money is betting that it will end up like The Oracle. Juniper must be sweating. And Gold Coast apartment returns will take a dive, because fewer tourists are coming to the Gold Coast. What does this mean for Brisbane? Bad news about the Gold Coast impacts the mood of investors in Brisbane, and of interstate and international investors thinking about investing in Brisbane.

So not a good time to sell. And probably worth while waiting to buy. But if you listen to the real estate agents, who only make money if you buy, they will tell you otherwise.

New Apartment Projects In Brisbane

This is my list of actual and pending apartment projects in inner city Brisbane.

1. Macrossan Apartments, located behind Skyline and the Admiralty buildings. Not river front. 37 levels. Full floor apartments on higher levels -- 3 bedrooms plus study, about 250 sqm internal, with small balcony. High level of finishes. Expensive. See typical floor plan. The main bedroom looks right into Skyline -- not much privacy here. The apartment on level 26 will be auctioned (by the developer it seems) on 3 March 2011. The building is complete, but it seems that less than half the apartments have sold.

2A. Soleil, by Meriton. Next door to Macrossan, and also behind Skyline, is Soleil. Currently under construction. Over 400 apartments; 74 floors. Currently at about level 55. The developer will keep the management rights; and will keep ownership of a large number of apartments on higher floors. This, in my opinion, creates many issues for owners, so take care. Will be settled in stages, with lower floors settling first. This is a B grade development in my view.

Photos of Soleil under construction: Photo of Soleil, Macrossan and Skyline; photo of the 3 Admiralty buildings, River Place, Skyline, with Macrossan to the side and Soliel growing from behind above Skyline.

2B. Infinity, by Meriton. Located in the Roma Street area, behind but to tower over Evolution. 77 floors of apartments, so this will be a massive height for Brisbane, but the actual floor plate is not that large. Currently in off the plan sales - see brochure. The hole for the carpark has been dug, but the building itself is not yet under construction. With 2 bedroom apartments starting at $590,000, this looks to be expensive. Again, the developer will keep the management rights and a number of apartments in the building, so take care.

3. Sunland's "Carrington" development on corner of Alice Street and Albert Street. This development recently received Council approval. 47 floors of high end apartments. Will cast shadow over Botanical Gardens, which is not good for the public. If you read all the controversy about Q1 on the Gold Coast, I hope that Sunland does a better job on its first Brisbane apartment building. The AFR reports that construction will start when 50% of the 257 apartments have been pre-sold.

4. Devine's proposed development, on the corner of Margaret Street and Albert Street, at 30 Albert Street. This is right behind the Sunland development mentioned above. A development application was lodged on Christmas Eve, 2010, so this will be some way off. 37 floors, 420 apartments, 1 and 2 bed apartments only. Looks like another Charlotte Towers.

5. The Midtown, on Charlotte Street, opposite Charlotte Towers. Currently in pre-sales; demolition has started onsite. One and two bedroom apartments. 29 floors of apartments.

6. The Chelsea and Madison on Mayne, by Metro Property Developments. These apartment buildings are both in Bowen Hills, and contain 286 and 242 apartments. Metro is associated with David Devine and Ken Woodley, both ex-Devine. Their most recent development was Charlotte Towers, where (as reported elsewhere in this blog) capital growth has been on average about 1% and many purchasers off the plan have lost money. So if they follow the same approach, the developers will profit, but not the initial purchasers. It is interesting to read this. These apartments do not have development approval. (Metro is also planning on Brooklyn on Brookes, in the Valley. (Also, Richmond at Bowen Hills by another developer.)

7. Mosaic in the Valley, still waiting for development approval. 20 floors, about 250 apartments. Currently being sold off-the-plan.

8. McLachlan & Ann in the Valley. 234 apartments, currently being sold off the plan.

9. Kevlin Grove Urban Village: A bunch of apartment buildings under construction, including 3 buildings by Pradella (branded as Urban Edge); and Edenview; and Binary Apartments.

10. SouthPoint at SouthBank. 20 floors.

11. Newstead River Park - about 15 apartment buildings planned, with Mirvac completing "Pier" shortly, and "Park" in presales. FKP plans to build The Gasworks.

12. Northshore Hamilton (many developers, with a large number of apartments planned), Hamilton Reach (in presales) and Hamilton Harbour (three apartment buildings by Devine, currently under construction) and Portside by Multiplex (one building under construction, at least one more planned); and Rivana (by Citimark).

13. Rive at Albion/Breakfast Creek (under construction, but flooded). Two towers of apartments.

14. Waters Edge at West End. Developed by Pradella. (stage one complete; stage two under construction). Basement and pool area flooded.

15. FKP's The Milton at Milton. Was in off the plan sales. Display flooded.

16. The Capitol Apartments, South Brisbane. Currently in off-the-plan sales.

17. Yungaba Apartments, Kangaroo Point. Currently in construction, but delayed due to floods.

18. Montague West End - site flooded, and website not active.

19. The Apple, in the CBD. Small building on 1 bedroom apartments.

20. Belise, St Paul's Terrace, in the Valley. In presales, off the plan.

Flood Impact to Values

"Valuations on Brisbane homes are expected to decline in the aftermath of the floods, although the final impact for house prices remains unclear. RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher believes Brisbane house prices could fall by as much as 10 per cent over the next few years, but that's against a backdrop of flat house prices nationwide.

“There will be an impact on property located further away from river and low-lying areas that may back onto a creek. People in those areas will find it much harder to sell those properties,” said the Brisbane-based researcher.

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“In the short term, I think there could be some pain. If you don't need to sell, don't.”

Mr Kusher’s estimate of a 10 per cent drop is optimistic compared to Queensland University of Technology’s Professor Chris Eves, who predicted a drop of up to 35 per cent over the next 12 months.

Professor Eves also believes those in low-lying areas away from the river will suffer most.

...

The impact from the flood, which submerged nearly 15,000 homes, has forced valuers to reconsider assumptions about the risks and impact of once-in-a-century level inundations.

University of Queensland property studies professor Clive Warren said he wouldn't be surprised by a fall as much as 10 per cent on properties after the floods.

“Properties below that 1-in-100 [year] line will be blighted to some degree,” he said.

“They may well come off their prices. And people may well choose to go elsewhere.”

Professor Warren said numerous valuers expected a fall of as much as 10 per cent in these properties.

Brisbane home prices have already been tracking sideways for a year. Most recently, they dropped 0.5 per cent in the three months to December, seasonally adjusted, according to RP Data/Rismark. They were at a median price of $435,000, compared to a 0.4 per cent gain in national home prices in the same period, to a median price of $475,000."

See Brisbane Times and also Brisbane Business News

Property Plunge Could Reach 35%

Capital Growth

The potential for future capital growth remains the number one incentive for Queensland property investors, according to new research from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ conducted buyer and seller behaviour research late last year which found capital growth was the top reason for buying an investment property in Queensland for 74 per cent of buyers.

The next most common reasons to buy investment property were to fund retirement; for negative gearing purposes; as a means of deriving an income stream; or because they believed it offered a better long term return than shares or super.

Gold Coast Auction Update

The AFR had a headline this week: "Gold Coast results highlight weakness". There were several auction events last weekend on the Gold Coast. Some agencies had clearance rates as low as 10% according to the AFR. The Ray White Sunday auction sold $12.4M worth of property, 41 sales from 103 listings, with an average sales price of $312,000.

A Circle on Cavill penthouse sold for $2.5M, originally sold off the plan for $5.95M. The Gold Coast press calls this a positive sign! How is making a loss of almost $4M a positive sign?

A large Q1 apartment, 3104, sold for $575,000 furnished, less than the mid $600Ks paid for this apartment unfurnished by the previous owner. See photo above.

Two Soul apartments (still off the plan) failed to attract bidders.

The Gold Coast press says that things are looking up! Can anyone explain to me why a large capital loss is a good thing?

Flood Clean Up Costs

A number of buildings are now realising the costs of flood clean up. I have heard of costs ranging from $400,000 to $10M, depending on the damage. Even buildings with slight damage appear to have huge clean up costs.

Body corporate committees are discussing special levies, in the thousands, for each unit owner.

From what I have heard, some unit owners are obtaining legal advice. Often, the body corporate manager recommends the insurance policy (and takes a large commission). So there is talk of suing the body corporate manager for the loss. In many cases, the developers appear to have been negligent as to where they placed critical equipment. So there may be lawsuits against developers and body corporate managers.

See this article about the Tennyson Reach flood cleanup costs.