Saturday, February 13, 2010

Another Misleading Focus Advertisement


The advertisement says:

"This 2 bedroom 2 bathroom inner city apartment located in the heart of Brisbane CBD is an unbelievable $499,000."
This is nowhere near the heart of the CBD. In my view, it is not even located in the CBD. It is the most un-central, and in my opinion badly located apartment development in Brisbane. Great views of trains and highways. Unbelievable!

Market Update from Stockland

Queensland:

  • Suffered the greatest slowdown and the mildest recovery to date
  • Difficult investment climate; government levies increasing
  • New housing starts remain below underlying demand
Stockland's apartment division

Further urban consolidation is inevitable in order to meet the Federal Government’s stated population growth targets

However, Stockland’s Apartments projects have not delivered appropriate returns in recent years:

Wrong style of project (e.g. high end lifestyle, non urban) that did not reflect our core markets and strengths

Planning blockages significantly impacted speed to market

Further apartments projects will only be considered as part of mixed-use projects which play to our diversified asset class capabilities:

Working closely with government approval authorities to resolve planning and delivery blockages

Focus on right product / place / price with significant amenity and convenience

No Finance Yet for Hamilton Harbour

Devine still has not obtained finance for its Hamilton Harbour development. The AFR reports that it could take up to two months of further negotiations for Devine to obtain finance. The average price of all apartments sold in this development to 31 December 2009 is just less than $520,000 per apartment. For the first tower, the average price is $539,000 per apartment.

From a report to shareholders this week:

"The company’s mixed-use Hamilton Harbour joint venture with Leighton Properties also continues to progress well with over 90% of the first stage being sold by 31 December 2009 with 233 apartments representing $125.6 million in sales.


Following the success of the first stage, the second stage residential tower was released to the market in October 2009 and this has resulted in total sales to date for the two stages of 377 apartments worth $196.6 million with 317 of these sales unconditional with 10% deposit paid. Devine together with its joint venture partner, Leighton Properties, continue to progress securing funding for the construction phase and are confident that this will be achieved."

Friday, February 12, 2010

One or Three Bedrooms?

I have always wondered whether developers know what they are doing. Take this for example.

The El Dorado Village Indooroopilly apartment development seemed to have its advertising targeted at suburban empty nesters. The proposed development included twenty end apartments that were three bedroom apartments, 105sqm internal (not large) and 35 sqm balcony. The lower floor 3 bedroom apartments were originally priced from $785,000 to about $825,000 when first released , but when re-launched recently, were priced in the low $900,000 range. There must not have been much interest, because the developer has reconfigured 10 of these apartments into 20 one bedroom and studio apartments. The new apartments are either 53sqm or 55 sqm internal, with either a 13sqm or 30sqm balcony. Priced from $400,000 to $465,000. So this development has lost ten 3 bed apartments and added twenty 1 bed apartments. Over a year ago, I was told by the developer's agent that the developer had finance and would start construction soon. That doesn't sound like it was right.

On the other hand, the developer for Mosaic in the Valley has combined one bedroom apartments to create larger two bedroom and three bedroom apartments. The developer has taken a couple of one bedrooms on the north side of the building and combined them into a two bedroom plus media room (94sqm plus 10 sqm balcony). The developer has also combined three one bedroom apartments on the south side of the building into a three bedroom apartment (134 sqm plus 17 sqm balcony).


In relation to the 2 bed plus media room, they have 2 car parks and the prices are:

Level 13 $799k

Level 14 $820k

Level 15 $840k

Level 16 $860k

So it seems that El Dorado is creating smaller apartments and Mosaic is creating larger apartments.

Matusik On Rents

"The unfortunate news about rental growth for this year is that there probably won’t be any. In fact, not only do we foresee a dismal year in 2010 for rental growth, we anticipate limited investor interest in residential property to accompany it.

As we have said previously, our analysis shows that the Australian and Queensland rental market is adequately supplied overall, and recent predictions of rental growth exceeding double figures are unlikely to happen. Expect rent rises of 3% to 5% at best, and more realistically, 0% to 2%. ...

To begin with, existing landlords need to temper their expectations, and new investors should be somewhat conservative on a likely rental return. ...

Make sure your property is “share” friendly. The key here is to provide separate ensuites and bedrooms of equal size, positioned some distance away from each other. Adequate storage and off street parking also helps renters share in relative peace. Research shows that when choosing a property to rent, tenants look at the size and number of bedrooms first, followed by car accommodation and then the indoor/outdoor living space/s.

Location and views are important when it comes to capital growth, but are less important when it comes to renting out a property. Don’t expect a lot more rent for a property with a view or in a trendy spot.
Michael Matusik"

Finding a Roommate - take care!

If you are using a room-mate service, such as EasyRoomMate and StudentFlatmates.com.au, take care. There are a few issues.

First, there are a number of scam listings, by people who pretend to have a room available, to scam the deposit or bond from you. For example, a "person" called Heather Buffington Nicole pretends to have a room for rent in Cathedral Place: 41 gotha street, brisbane. This is just a scam. See, for example, this blog.
Second, there can be disputes between flatmates regarding rent and bonds, and they get very messy. Often, one flatmate is held responsible for the conduct of another flatmate.

Soleil Update February 2010

From an email from the Meriton sales agent:

Soleil is the fastest selling development in Brisbane and is set to become the most impressive building in the Brisbane CBD,
offering affordable luxury apartments while maximising outstanding views at every turn.  
Soleil has a selection of Studio, 1, 2 & 3 bedroom apartments 
available for sale.  UNBELIEVABLE VALUE, VERY 
HIGH RENTAL RETURNS AND A MAGNIFICENT 74 STORY TOWER IN THE HEART OF BRISBANE CBD  
One bedroom apartments priced from $334,000 
Two bedroom, two bathroom apartments and parking priced from $545,000 
Two bed & study apartments with parking priced from $618,000 level 50  
Three bedroom apartments with parking priced from $760,000 (level 41) 
Three bedroom apartments with double parking priced from $931,000  
All apartments include floor to ceiling glass, blinds, light fittings, air conditioning, 
Stainless Steel European kitchen appliances including a cook top, dishwasher, electric oven
and a range hood.  The Estimated completion date: mid to the end of 2011, depending on the level of the apartment.

Slumburbia in the USA

"After several days in foreclosure alley, this broad swath of the Central Valley that has been rated by some economists as the most stressed region during the Great Recession, I can’t see such apocalyptic forecasts coming true. Yes, huge developments are empty, with rising crime at the edges, and thousands of homes owned by banks that can’t unload them even at fire-sale prices. But through it all, the country churns and expands, unlike most other Western democracies. That great American natural resource — tomorrow — will have to save the suburban slums."

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Roma Street Parklands Auction Result

A three bedroom apartment in the Pradella Roma Street Parklands development went to auction today. A deceased estate. The address is 7110/7 Parkland Boulevard. This apartment is an end apartment, on the southern/city end of the building, with the side view looking into the Pinnacle building. 119sqm internal, with a long skinny living room at the front, and three bedrooms on the back (on the railway side), plus two largish balconies. Sold today at auction for $750,000. The total area (including balcony) is 155sqm, so this sold for $4,840 a sqm. This is significantly less than the price per sqm of many off the plan developments currently being marketed.


Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Chinese Big Buyers In Soleil

"... let me start this week with four facts about what is happening in the Australian dwelling market that may surprise you.

First, if metals prices keep falling and take the Australian dollar down further (as is widely predicted) some segments of the Australian residential market may actually benefit.

Second, one of the fastest growth markets for apartments is those without garages. There is very little street parking available so many residents are now living without a car – this is a significant change in traditional Australian living.

Third, living intensity is increasing as apartment dwellers are not only seeking apartments without garages but are also seeking a design that will allow them to rent one of the rooms to another party.

Finally, one of our big banks has suddenly decided to fund buyers of middle- or lower-priced Sydney apartments – a market all major banks have shunned for years.

Late last week, the biggest Australian apartment owner and builder Harry Triguboff and I had a conversation about the major changes happening in his Meriton apartment business. The Chinese are currently buying about half of all his apartments because they are much cheaper than equivalent apartments in major Chinese cities. And if the Australian dollar falls, dwellings will be even cheaper for the Chinese.

The Chinese are buying up big in Brisbane, but not in Surfers Paradise, partly explaining the sudden weakness of the Surfers market. Others tell me the Chinese are also very active in buying Melbourne residential property.

The Chinese sometimes buy apartments for their student children or for themselves to live in, but usually they remain landlords and rent the properties out. Most of the focus of Chinese investment in Australia is on the spectacular multi-billion dollar corporate moves which obscure what is happening at the grass roots level. ... "

Business Spectator

Jingle Mail in the USA

"It was April 2006, a moment when the perpetual rise of real estate was considered practically a law of physics. Mr. Koellmann was 23, a management consultant new to Miami. Financially cautious by nature, he bought a small, plain one-bedroom apartment for $215,000, much less than his agent told him he could afford. He put down 20 percent and received a fixed-rate loan from Countrywide Financial.

Not quite four years later, apartments in the building are selling in foreclosure for $90,000.

“There is no financial sense in staying,” Mr. Koellmann said. With the $1,500 he is paying each month for his mortgage, taxes and insurance, he could rent a nicer place on the beach, one with a gym, security and valet parking."

Source: NYTimes

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Auction Results

This is supposed to be selling season. APM reports that only 8 properties in Brisbane sold at auction this Saturday. No units were reported as being sold at auction. Although auctions are not as common in Brisbane as in Melbourne, and many agents don't report to APM, this is not a promising sign.

W4

It seems that W4 Apartments by Donovan Hill at Newstead have problems. From a communication from a lawyer in Brisbane: "Our recommendation is that for the time being you do not issue your own proceedings and support the QBSA. It would be unwise to effect full repairs to the building which are likely to be in excess of $1.6M as it will render the QBSA proceedings useless." Temporary repairs were recommended to prevent the situation from getting worse.

This is an example of the risk of buying off the plan.

"Poor! Downstairs carpark always floods. Carpark storage broken into. Bird poo everywhere. Poor finish to everything (bathroom tiling loose after 12 mths). Airconditioning problems leading to high electricy bill. Cheap paint on walls. Stupid light (hits your head all the time if you dont put your dining table in that position). Cracked plastering dropping off ceilings. Thats all folks."
"Been in the unit for 4 months now. Very poor finish, everything seems very cheap and tacky.They dont look like new units, more like a renovated unit... The floor is a really cheap vinyl. It comes with some very ordinary light fittings which are supposed to be designed by a famous guy. They look like my five year old made them!"

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Timing the Market - Letter to the Editor

A good letter from yesterday's AFR:

"The latest APM report clearly shows that house prices are rising mainly because of resurgent interest in high-end properties; but many people will sadly delude themselves that this is a sure sign of capital growth in their own, low to mid-end houses or investment properties. They should understand that the property markets do not all move in the same way at the same time.

By selling and trading up to a more prestigious area now, there is the real risk of "buying into the rise" and paying a premium to do so. Time in the market , or timing the market? The time to buy into high-end property was when no one could service the debt or sell it - during the middle of the financial crisis. It is very difficult to do well in an asset class when everyone else is interested in it."
Chris Embery, South Australia.

The Milton

FKP has received development approval from the Council for its Milton Railway Station development. This development was once called Union, and is now called "The Milton".

The Milton will be a 31-storey, 303 residential apartment building on Railway Terrace. It will also have a number of retail lots.

Friday, January 29, 2010

RP Data - Rismark December 2009 report

Units outperform houses

2009 saw Australian unit values increase by 13.5 per cent compared with house values up 10.4 per cent. The trend was the consistent across every capital city, with units returning a strong gain over the year.

According to Mr Lawless, “The higher gains in the unit market are a deviation from normal performances. Historically houses have tended to outperform units. The recent reversal in fortunes has occurred due to more buyers leaning towards units because they have a more affordable price tag and are often located in more strategic locations in relation to transport and amenity than many detached housing options. Other factors may also include changing housing preferences, particularly amongst baby boomers, and more highly targeted unit developments being delivered to the market.”

Brisbane The Brisbane market remained comparatively subdued during 2009 with values increasing by 7.3 per cent over the year. The comparatively weak performance can partly be attributed to the strong gains recorded in 2007 where Brisbane values gained 24.6 per cent over the year. Gross rental yields in Brisbane remain above the national average with houses returning 4.4 per cent and units returning 5.0 per cent. 2010 is likely to see Brisbane outperform the national average due to the fact it is in a later stage of the cycle, together with ongoing strong population growth and the benefit of several major infrastructure projects coming to fruition. The median house price in Brisbane is now $463,000 and the median unit price $383,600

See RP Data Report

"December research undertaken by RP Data and Rismark International showed Brisbane property values rose by 7.3 per cent in 2009, well below the national average of 11.5 per cent.

This confirmed the findings of the Australian Property Monitors House Price Report, released earlier this week,which RP Data disputed at the time.

RP Data research director Tim Lawless said better performing capitals in 2009 included Darwin (16.6 per cent), Melbourne (15.6 per cent), Canberra (14.7 per cent), Hobart (12.4 per cent) and Sydney (11.4 per cent).

But Mr Lawless said he expected 2010 to be a very different story for the Sunshine State capital.

"In Brisbane, we have vacancy rates of around three per cent, very strong population growth and not a great deal of new housing being released. So that's the dynamic that's pushing prices upwards," he said.

Brisbane Times


Gold Coast - Colliers Newsletter

"Sellers who have been holding on for the last 2 years, not needing to sell, are now making the decision to sell.

There is good buyer interest however some are still looking to find the bargains, which are almost gone from the market as the competition from buyers increases.

Recent auction results confirm buyers are active in the market, but their offers are sometimes falling short of the owners expectations. The real test for the properties that have passed in at auction is to see if they sell within the next 2 weeks. These sales will occur because buyers realise that they need to pay a little more than their first offer to secure the property or sellers realise the market will only support a certain price level."

This sounds to me like prices are going down.

Median Prices Can Be Misleading

From Chris Joye at Rismark:

“In the first quarter of 2009, some median index providers reported misleading results, claiming that house prices were falling when in fact they were rising rapidly. The medians were being dragged down by a surge in first time buyers purchasing cheap homes in the first three months of 2009. The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Indices, in contrast, reported strong growth of circa 3 per cent in the first quarter in 2009.

“Since the first quarter, the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index has shown stable growth. In comparison, the median price indices are being artificially boosted by the fading of first time buyers and the return of upgraders buying more expensive homes, which drag the medians upwards. At the current time, the true rates of capital gains across Australia are likely to be substantially less than those reported by median price suppliers.”

Inner City Rents

"RTA general manager Fergus Smith said median rents for two-bedroom units in the Brisbane City/Spring Hill area rose by $30 a week from $510 to $540."

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Ice Cream Lickers Are Back

"THEY are usually like a thorn in the flesh of real estate agents but this summer the "ice-cream lickers" are responsible for the early stages of a recovery in the holiday home market.

Real estate agents describe holidaymakers who inspect properties after looking at the advertisements in the windows of real estate agencies, yet rarely follow through with a purchase, as "ice-cream lickers".

Agents are reporting that it is these interested parties who are snapping up the bargain-priced homes in beach locations along the east coast. ...

Exclusive destinations such as Palm Beach, in Sydney's north, and Noosa, north of Brisbane, had also reported more interest.

Real estate agent Marcus Bengtsson at Tom Offermann Real Estate in Noosa said there were "absolutely" more inquiries this year compared with last year. "People come up here and fall in love with it," he said.

"It might be on their first visit or the second (that they decide to buy a property). They look at the local property magazines while lying by the pool."

Joe Buchanan of Firstlight International -- the offshoot of private equity player Blue Sky Capital -- said he now had 30 names on a reserve list for those wishing to acquire a share of the company's yet-to-be-developed luxury beachfront apartments on Noosa's Hastings Street.

Up to eight of the 20 units will be priced between $12m and $16m for individual ownership, while the remainder will be co-owned. "Over the Christmas holiday period, we have maybe had eight to 10 inquiries," he said.

While property prices in some holiday destinations have recently staged a recovery, they have fallen in price by about 10 per cent since the start of the global financial crisis, defying the trend of a stronger housing recovery in state capitals.

APM economist Matthew Bell said that in Queensland and NSW during December, prices were still not back to the levels they were during the boom more than two years ago, despite rising between 1 and 3.5 percentage points during the past six months.

Hotel and resorts analyst Dean Dransfield of Dransfield Hotels & Resorts said securing sales from holidaymakers could be challenging. "You have to call in bankers (and such people) and that type of work people don't want to do on holiday," Mr Dransfield said." Source: The Australian

Low Clearance Rate a Mega Auction on Gold Coast

137 properties were originally listed for sale at the large Ray White Gold Coast auction held on Sunday. 65 sold prior to or on auction day. That is a 47% clearance rate after at least a 4 week campaign. Not very good. And it seems that pricing achieved was not great, despite the big lead up publicity. In my view, auctioning non-unique apartments is not a smart tactic. Two apartments in Circle on Cavill sold for less than $400,000 each, furnished.

As reported in the Gold Coast Bulletin:

"But not everyone was optimistic about the property market, with two vendors at the auction, who wished to remain anonymous, claiming they fell short by about $130,000 over three Surfers Paradise units they had to sell due to family circumstances.

"I don't think the confidence is in the market," said the vendor."

A West End Love Story, in Brisbane

There is a very fancy website for Montague at West End. It is located behind Stockland's Koko.

See http://montaguebrisbane.com.au/. I think this was once called "The Wave". The development has a large number of very small apartments. Pricing starting from $290,000. Developed by Mirae Queensland Pty Ltd.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Charlotte Towers and Vision


This is a photo taken today of Charlotte Towers, from Margaret Street, with the Vision hole in the foreground. Vision Brisbane is under administration.

Mortages and United States Residential Property

"MUCH has been said about the high rate of home foreclosures, but the most interesting question may be this: Why is the mortgage default rate so low?
David G. Klein

Related

Weekend Business: Richard Thaler on strategic defaults and home foreclosures.

After all, millions of American homeowners are “underwater,” meaning that they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. In Nevada, nearly two-thirds of homeowners are in this category. Yet most of them are dutifully continuing to pay their mortgages, despite substantial financial incentives for walking away from them."

Full story

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Will Brisbane Apartment Prices Rise or Fall in 2010?

I do not know! The messages are mixed at present. My predication is that some buildings will have average price growth, while other buildings (e.g., those with a large number and % of investor apartments -- e.g. Aurora and Charlotte Towers -- or those that were aggressively sold off the plan during the boom -- e.g. Evolution) will have no price growth or price decreases.


Factors suggesting price increases for Brisbane apartments include:
  • increased migration to Brisbane
  • mining sector likely to remain strong
  • few large new apartment buildings being completed in the next 18 months
  • net returns of 5% or better for some apartments
Factors suggesting no price increases (or possible price decreases) for Brisbane apartments include:
  • likely interest rate increases in 2010
  • rents unlikely to increase significantly in 2010, and may even decrease for some buildings/areas
  • lack of first home buyers, many of whom purchase apartments
  • investors only purchasing when the price is right or the seller is desperate
  • difficulties for investors getting loans
  • banks are requiring a higher % of down payment, so investors have less to spend
  • valuations are more conservative, making it harder for investors to obtain highly geared loans
  • difficulties redrawing against existing loans to invest, because property prices have not increased significantly in recent times
Risks for the investor in Brisbane include:
  • foreign students loosing interest in Brisbane or Australia -- as they make up a significant percentage of renters
  • wages stagnate -- affordability (% of wages spent on property) already stretched, so unless wages increase, it is unlikely that property prices will increase significantly
  • council rates increasing
  • body corporate levies are already high (over $6,000 a year in some buildings), and may increase more this year
  • federal government limiting or removing ability to negatively gear or claim depreciation
  • unemployment increases

Quattro - "New" Spring Hill Apartment Building

Apartments in a new apartment building are currently being marketed, with the official launch next weekend.

The building is Quattro. All the apartments are two bedrooms, two bathrooms, about 84sqm internal. There are 4 apartments per floor, over 13 floors. There are 52 apartments in total. They have ducted air-conditioning.

The pricing starts at $450,000 and goes to $600,000, depending on floor and view. Expressions of interest have been submitted for all apartments below $500,000.

I suspect that some of the apartments will get a lot of noise from Turbot Street.

It appears from the website that the building manager plans to rent out apartments on a short term and overnight basis. The development is associated with Balmain Trilogy. The building has been sitting empty for a year, due to financial and legal issues.

Rents in 2010

  • 2009 weak year for rent growth
  • Still down in 2010
  • But will rise within months

RENTS across Australia stagnated and in some cases even fell in the December quarter, but are expected to rise later this year.

A report to be released by Australian Property Monitors today says last year was the weakest for national rental growth since 2002.

While APM flags a strong lift in rents is likely this year, property managers and landlords reported that the market had remained soft so far this month, which is typically the busiest month for the rental market.

Chris Rolls, managing director of the Gold Coast and Brisbane residential property manager Rental Express, said: "We have found this is the slowest start to the year for the last five years."

Mr Rolls, who owns a four-bedroom rental property in Brisbane suburb Kelvin Grove, said the contract for the property came up for renewal in 10 days and he had opted to keep the rent at $520 a week in the hope that the current tenants would not leave.

"The risk is that if you increase the rent, and they don't pay it and instead move out, I won't get the same rent. It was top rent 12 months ago," Mr Rolls said.


Harcourts New Farm owner and property manager Kylie Pridham agreed the tenant's reprieve - brought about by the global financial crisis - would not last long, with vacancy rates in Brisbane to remain about three per cent.

"We have had to reduce [the rent] on some properties by $50 a week, but that won't last," Ms Pridham told theAustralian Financial Review.

"As soon as the lease finishes in six months time those rents will be back up."

Source: Brisbane Times

Interest in the sale may be strong but the general property outlook for the year is a little more sobering, according to property analyst Michael Matusik. Mr Matusik warned that property was likely to be oversupplied this year. He cited factors including a shrinking average household size, less impact than expected from overseas migration and lots of empty houses around the country.

Mr Matusik said that after decades of overconsuming property, the past year had seen a more frugal mindset which could continue.

And he said the rental market was not as tight as some commentators claimed. Rental analyst Louis Christopher of SQM research said claims of an imminent increase in rents were optimistic.

"There is no evidence to suggest we will see significant increases in rents," Mr Christopher said. "Despite recent aggressive forecasts, increases of between 3-5 per cent in most areas are more likely, depending on what you are renting and where," he said.

His calculations put Brisbane's vacancy rate at 3.4 per cent last month, with 8603 homes available for rent. This is up nearly half a per cent from the previous month.

Source: Courier Mail