Friday, September 30, 2011
Show Ground Hill video
Lend Lease has released a concept video for its Showground Hill development. It shows lots of happy people doing wonderful things at places other than Showground Hill, because Showground Hill has not been built yet. See video for some laughs.
Regulations relaxed for Tennyson Reach - then Floods
Real estate agent David Dunworth told the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry he bought a luxury unit at the Tennyson Reach complex, which adjoins the State Tennis Centre at Tennyson on Brisbane's south-side, without doing a flood search on the property.
The unit, along with another one in the complex he was leasing, was inundated during the Brisbane floods in January this year.
After the flood, which caused major damage to his unit and destroyed furniture, art and other belongings, Mr Dunworth said he discovered his unit was more than two metres below the 1974 flood level. He also discovered regulations that required the property to be set back 20 metres had been relaxed to allow his unit complex to be built just six metres from the river.
"I think if I had known all these things we would have considered making a different decision," he said.
He said sellers should be required to provide the information up front. Mr Dunworth said he believed that since a major property developer, Mirvac, was behind the project and it had the backing of the state government and planning approval from the Brisbane City Council, all necessary precautions would have been taken.
"I just assumed that the most stringent conditions were being imposed," he told the inquiry.
Source: SMH
The values at Tennyson Reach have dropped by 30% to 50%.
The unit, along with another one in the complex he was leasing, was inundated during the Brisbane floods in January this year.
After the flood, which caused major damage to his unit and destroyed furniture, art and other belongings, Mr Dunworth said he discovered his unit was more than two metres below the 1974 flood level. He also discovered regulations that required the property to be set back 20 metres had been relaxed to allow his unit complex to be built just six metres from the river.
"I think if I had known all these things we would have considered making a different decision," he said.
He said sellers should be required to provide the information up front. Mr Dunworth said he believed that since a major property developer, Mirvac, was behind the project and it had the backing of the state government and planning approval from the Brisbane City Council, all necessary precautions would have been taken.
"I just assumed that the most stringent conditions were being imposed," he told the inquiry.
Source: SMH
The values at Tennyson Reach have dropped by 30% to 50%.
RP Data's August National Index Results
"In pure capital terms, Australian capital city dwelling values have declined by -3.2 per cent over the 12 months to August 2011. However, accounting for rents, the total returns have been a positive +1.1 per cent over the year.
Mr Kusher also highlighted the wide divergences in housing outcomes across Australia. In the 12 months to August 2011, Perth capital values fell by -7.1 per cent (s.a.). Yet in Sydney home values are up 0.3 per cent (s.a.). Total returns also vary markedly on a city-by-city basis. While Melbourne (-2.0 per cent), Perth (-2.0 per cent), Adelaide (-1.8 per cent) and Brisbane (-1.6 per cent) have all experienced negative total returns over the first eight months of 2011, Sydney (+3.4 per cent), Canberra (+2.8 per cent), and Darwin (+1.8 per cent) are in the black.
Analysis shows that the premium sector of the market remains the most volatile. The most expensive 20 per cent of suburbs have recorded capital value (ie, exclusive of rents) falls of -5.5 per cent over the last year compared with a - 3.1 per cent capital loss across the broad "middle" market and a -2.9 per cent capital loss amongst the 20 per cent of most affordable suburbs."
The chart below is for apartments only, not seasonly adjusted.
“The Brisbane result is encouraging following fairly sizeable monthly falls,” Kusher tells Property Observer. “It suggests Brisbane may be near the bottom of the market.”
Mr Kusher also highlighted the wide divergences in housing outcomes across Australia. In the 12 months to August 2011, Perth capital values fell by -7.1 per cent (s.a.). Yet in Sydney home values are up 0.3 per cent (s.a.). Total returns also vary markedly on a city-by-city basis. While Melbourne (-2.0 per cent), Perth (-2.0 per cent), Adelaide (-1.8 per cent) and Brisbane (-1.6 per cent) have all experienced negative total returns over the first eight months of 2011, Sydney (+3.4 per cent), Canberra (+2.8 per cent), and Darwin (+1.8 per cent) are in the black.
Analysis shows that the premium sector of the market remains the most volatile. The most expensive 20 per cent of suburbs have recorded capital value (ie, exclusive of rents) falls of -5.5 per cent over the last year compared with a - 3.1 per cent capital loss across the broad "middle" market and a -2.9 per cent capital loss amongst the 20 per cent of most affordable suburbs."
The chart below is for apartments only, not seasonly adjusted.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Auctions for Apartments
I never think an auction is a good way to sell a normal apartment. The auction process benefits the real estate agent more than the seller.
Ray White South Brisbane in its latest newsletter writes:
"Last night Ray White South Brisbane & CBD Residential again held it's monthly In Room Gala Auctions at the Greek Club with 19 properties going under the hammer. A busy night was had by all with over 200 people attending and 48 registered bidders on the night. 8 properties sold under the hammer & further negotiations are taking place on 4 other properties which should deliver over 60% clearance showing again that the 'hammer' beats a flat market."
But HS Brisbane Property's newsletter this weeks says:
"Love affair" with Auctions at an end! Once touted as the best way to achieve the best price, our 'love affair' with auctions seems well and truly at an end. Just on 80% of sellers in Queensland would want to sell their property through an auction, preferring to go through the "normal" private treaty sales process are even more sceptical, with a staggering 83%* avoiding auctions. The main reasons for buyers' steering clear of this type of purchasing process are:
Ray White South Brisbane in its latest newsletter writes:
"Last night Ray White South Brisbane & CBD Residential again held it's monthly In Room Gala Auctions at the Greek Club with 19 properties going under the hammer. A busy night was had by all with over 200 people attending and 48 registered bidders on the night. 8 properties sold under the hammer & further negotiations are taking place on 4 other properties which should deliver over 60% clearance showing again that the 'hammer' beats a flat market."
But HS Brisbane Property's newsletter this weeks says:
"Love affair" with Auctions at an end! Once touted as the best way to achieve the best price, our 'love affair' with auctions seems well and truly at an end. Just on 80% of sellers in Queensland would want to sell their property through an auction, preferring to go through the "normal" private treaty sales process are even more sceptical, with a staggering 83%* avoiding auctions. The main reasons for buyers' steering clear of this type of purchasing process are:
- Worry about paying too much, due
to the excitement of the auction
- Wasting money with property
searches etc. if you don't end up winning the auction
- Stress of the bidding process
Property sales statistics reflect
the Queenslanders' scepticism with less than 25% of all Brisbane
The climax of the renovation reality
show, The Block, gave many viewers
a wake-up call as 3 of the 4 painstakingly renovated properties didn't even
achieve reserve price in the all-deciding auction finale!
Previously we've highlighted the
pitfalls of auctions, and it seems that the fundamentals of the auction process
are far from ideal for the current Brisbane - and particularly CBD -
residential property market ... and many Queensland sellers and buyers appear
to see it this way too!"
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Miserable Gold Coast
SURGING body corporate fees have combined with price volatility in the wake of receiverships to continue the Gold Coast's ''miserable'' run of highrise unit sales this year. The Midwood Report yesterday revealed 49 unconditional sales of highrise apartments were recorded in the three months to the end of August.
This was down from 51 sales three months earlier and compared with 74 a year ago.
Report author Bill Morris said ''escalating'' body corporate fees were among the factors taking their toll on apartment sales on the Gold Coast as fees and apartment values headed in opposite directions. Mr Morris said the issue was a state-wide problem that was hurting returns for investors. ''Accordingly, the investment market has deteriorated quite dramatically,'' he said.
Mr Morris said the problem was more acute in older buildings but the failure of bodies corporate to allocate enough in sinking funds to meet maintenance issues was swaying potential buyers away from apartments generally.
He said the spate of receiverships in the Gold Coast highrise market, along with a tough stance taken by valuers, also had pushed potential buyers to the sidelines.
''Unconditional sales volumes of new apartments have continued to be miserable for the region since the beginning of 2010, averaging only 57 sales a quarter,'' Mr Morris wrote in the latest Midwood Report. The level of available highrise stock also dropped, with 618 new apartments remaining for sale the lowest in nine years.
Mr Morris said using the sales average of the past two years, the Coast still had 30 months' supply of highrise apartments. The picture for medium and low-rise apartments was even worse, with 24 and six unconditional sales recorded respectively in the three months to the end of August.
''This is a dismal result given that there are 611 new apartments currently for sale in medium-rise projects and 159 new apartments in low-rise projects,'' Mr Morris wrote. He said the State Government's $10,000 stimulus for new homebuyers could see a rise in sales over the remainder of the year.
Oversupply in Northern Brisbane?
According to an article in the Australian Financial Review yesterday, there is a glut of new apartments for sale in the inner northern suburbs of Brisbane such as Albion and Hamilton. In the Reed Construction Data report from July 2011, more than 7660 new Brisbane apartments were either in the market or earmarked for launch before December 2012. Of these, 44% or 3380 apartments were in the inner northern suburbs.
"The glut of stock has come as sales volumes hit new lows in 2010 but the soften has slowed as prices have readjusted and interstate investors see value in Brisbane property. ... Research analyst Lachlan Walker warned that if the majority of projects were not overwhelmingly successful it would put further downward pressure on buyer confidence."
The article had a nice rendering from the Arden Property development at Albion called Eden. This is said to be a $215 million residential development, with 3 buildings of six storeys each, for a total of 280 apartments.
"The glut of stock has come as sales volumes hit new lows in 2010 but the soften has slowed as prices have readjusted and interstate investors see value in Brisbane property. ... Research analyst Lachlan Walker warned that if the majority of projects were not overwhelmingly successful it would put further downward pressure on buyer confidence."
The article had a nice rendering from the Arden Property development at Albion called Eden. This is said to be a $215 million residential development, with 3 buildings of six storeys each, for a total of 280 apartments.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Developer's Stock of Apartments in Brisbane
The Courier Mail on Saturday had a number of advertisements for new apartments being sold by developers, off the plan. Here is a summary of the advertisements:
- Centrus One at Eight Mile Plains
- Hamilton Harbour, 2 bed 100sqm from $715,000
- Eastwood Apartments, 2 bed 104 sqm from $498,000
- Fish Lane Apartments, 2 bedroom $555,000
- Rive Apartments, 2 bed 110 sqm $575,000
- Riverbend Tower, selling whole floors (5 apartments per floor)
- Allure West End
- The Midtown, 2 bed 85 sqm $563,500
- Alex Perry Residential, 2 bed 81 sqm from $560,000
- The Encore Indiana
- Madison Heights, 1 bed no carpark 56 sqm from $389,000
- Linear St Lucia, 2 bed 122 sqm from $487,000
- Essence Chermside 2 bed 84 sqm from $479,000
- Precinct Bulimba, 132 sqm $599,000
- Lawsons Edge
- Barton on Barton, 101 sqm $549,000
- Residences on Upper Oxford from $999,000
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Show Ground Hill
Lend Lease has commenced marketing its apartment projects at the Bowen Hills Ekka redevelopment site. See The Green. There will be five buildings in The Green. The registration form only refers to 1 or 2 bedroom apartments.
Lease Lease is currently in the process of completing the on-site Sales Centre, located on St Paul’s Terrace, which will showcase both the Showground’s new Master Plan and the apartment options that will be available in The Green.
The Sales Centre will be opening for both VIP and Pre-Release appointments in early October 2011.
Phantom Apartments
It is hard to tell exactly how many new apartments are for sale in Brisbane. A number of developers have withdrawn completed apartments from the market (and either locked them up, or put tenants in.) So I suspect that there is more stock available for sale than the figures that are commonly published actually show.
Gold Coast Settlements Off the Plan
The Hilton and Soul (Sea Temple) apartment complexes at Surfers Paradise on the Gold Coast have many off the plan apartment sales that are to settle now. It seems that settlements are taking a long time, and that about 25% of the people who signed contracts are unable or unwilling to settle. See The Australian.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Up or Down or Flat?
According to Chris Joye, Australian housing prices are unlikely to crash, but will more likely tread water.
"While the Aussie share market is still nearly 40% below its 2007 peaks, Australian house prices are about 10.3% above their pre-GFC highs. Notwithstanding this, we have had effectively no house price growth in nearly one and a half years while household disposable incomes have, according to the ABS, raced ahead at an 7% to 8% per annum rate.
The next major marker will be the August house price index data. This will be a crucial guide to whether Australia's housing market is experiencing an accelerating decline, as folks like the perennial doomsayer Steve Keen would have us believe."
See note by Chris Joye
Michael Yardney reckons property prices are likely to increase, in the next decade!
"While the Aussie share market is still nearly 40% below its 2007 peaks, Australian house prices are about 10.3% above their pre-GFC highs. Notwithstanding this, we have had effectively no house price growth in nearly one and a half years while household disposable incomes have, according to the ABS, raced ahead at an 7% to 8% per annum rate.
The next major marker will be the August house price index data. This will be a crucial guide to whether Australia's housing market is experiencing an accelerating decline, as folks like the perennial doomsayer Steve Keen would have us believe."
See note by Chris Joye
Michael Yardney reckons property prices are likely to increase, in the next decade!
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Small One Bedroom Apartments
"Many people reject the idea of buying a one-bedroom apartment in the belief they are too small and boxy and might be hard to resell. If you're in this group of sceptics, it's time to change your thinking. Shrinking household sizes, a fast-growing population and Australia's housing shortage point to a rolled-gold future for well-located one-bedroom units."
Source: Domain
Source: Domain
Meriton Soleil to operate as hotel
Tonight is the official opening of Meriton's Soleil apartment building in Brisbane. It is going to be run as a hotel, with short stay guests, not as a residential apartment building. It is aimed at both business travellers and holiday makers. I feel sorry for people who purchased apartments here to live in full time. The hotel opens next week.
"Meriton Serviced Apartments will launch our in-demand and much anticipated hotel-style accommodation in Brisbane City in September 2011. Meriton Apartments two high-rise developments will change the Brisbane skyline and our serviced apartments will bring a fresh and much needed option to the city for both business and leisure travelers."
See Meriton website
"Meriton Serviced Apartments will launch our in-demand and much anticipated hotel-style accommodation in Brisbane City in September 2011. Meriton Apartments two high-rise developments will change the Brisbane skyline and our serviced apartments will bring a fresh and much needed option to the city for both business and leisure travelers."
See Meriton website
Monday, September 19, 2011
New Flood Maps
The Queensland Government Reconstruction Authority has recently published new interactive flood maps. See www.qldreconstruction.org.au/maps
However, it seems that Brisbane is yet to be fully mapped. There are some high level maps available, e.g. here and here, but from my experience in the floods, these maps show properties as flooded that did not flood.
However, it seems that Brisbane is yet to be fully mapped. There are some high level maps available, e.g. here and here, but from my experience in the floods, these maps show properties as flooded that did not flood.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Brisbane Investment Apartment
Don't forget to read, Investing in Brisbane Apartments - A Guide for Successful Investing, recently published and available at Amazon for immediate download delivery.
Milton
Milton has recorded the highest growth in median apartment prices of the
21 suburbs in Brisbane’s inner city, outstripping some of the city’s most prestigious
areas, new research shows.
Resolution Research found apartment prices in Milton had recorded the
highest median price growth in the inner city precinct over both the past
decade and the last 12 month research period from 2009 to 2010. Milton posted a median price increase of 12.3 per cent per annum over the
last 10 years, with apartment prices jumping from $171,000 in 2001 to $544,000
in December 2010.
It trumped the next best performers of East Brisbane at 11.8 per cent and
Dutton Park at 10.5 per cent, and the average across the inner city precinct of
7.3 per cent.
Milton also came out on top for price growth between 2009 and 2010, with
a 22.5 per cent median increase during that time, ahead of Herston at 20.8 per
cent and Hamilton at 20.5 per cent, and well ahead of the average inner city
growth of 7.7 per cent.
Resolution director Diana Howes said properties in the suburb were
expected to continue to perform strongly, with very limited new supply on the
horizon. “The inner west, which includes Milton, is one of the most undersupplied
markets in inner Brisbane,” she said.
“Currently, The Milton is the only high-density residential apartment
project on the market in the inner west, and that is not likely to change,
based on current approvals, until at least 2013 to 2015.
“At the same time, demand from those wanting to live in this area is
strong, particularly renters looking to take advantage of the convenience of its
near-CBD location and lifestyle amenities.
“Traditionally, demand for inner city apartment living has predominantly
come from professional couples, those without children and lone person
households, but we are increasingly seeing more young families wanting this style
of home.”
Ms Howes said inner city suburbs like Milton were sought after because of
their combination of proximity to the CBD, public transport and amenities like
restaurants, cafes, shops and entertainment.
“Brisbane’s apartment market is once again the most affordable capital
city on the east coast, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney,” said Ms Howes. “This is not only making Brisbane
a popular choice with southern buyers looking for their next investment
property, but is likely to stimulate interstate migration, particularly on the
back of the vast employment opportunities on offer across Queensland.
New Development - Centrus One
A new off the plan development, Centrus One, has recently launched. It is located in Eight Mile Plains.
Floor plan grid here, showing that 3 out of 38 apartments have sold.
One bedrooms priced from $315,000. Two bedrooms from $385,000. Three bedrooms from $445,000.
These prices seem relatively reasonable, when compared with suburban six pack developments.
I looked at the floor plans for a 1 bedroom plus study alcove. The smaller one bed (54 sqm internal plus 13 sqm balcony) was $325,000. A larger one bed with a bigger study area (64 sqm plus 13 sqm, which is a good size) was $335,000.
A two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 74 sqm internal with 14 sqm balcony. It was a "floor through" apartment, with the living room at the front and two bedrooms at the rear. Some of the floor area was taken up with hallways. This was $395,000 or $402,000, for example, depending on the level.
A larger two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 77 sqm plus 13 sqm balcony for $417,000. Again, a floor through apartment, with the bedrooms separated from the living area. This appears to be the most popular of the sold apartments.
Floor plan grid here, showing that 3 out of 38 apartments have sold.
One bedrooms priced from $315,000. Two bedrooms from $385,000. Three bedrooms from $445,000.
These prices seem relatively reasonable, when compared with suburban six pack developments.
I looked at the floor plans for a 1 bedroom plus study alcove. The smaller one bed (54 sqm internal plus 13 sqm balcony) was $325,000. A larger one bed with a bigger study area (64 sqm plus 13 sqm, which is a good size) was $335,000.
A two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 74 sqm internal with 14 sqm balcony. It was a "floor through" apartment, with the living room at the front and two bedrooms at the rear. Some of the floor area was taken up with hallways. This was $395,000 or $402,000, for example, depending on the level.
A larger two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 77 sqm plus 13 sqm balcony for $417,000. Again, a floor through apartment, with the bedrooms separated from the living area. This appears to be the most popular of the sold apartments.
Apartments Becoming More Popular
Across the country there is generally a wide gap between the price of house and a unit, a factor that is likely to become increasingly attractive to first home buyers and other budget conscious property buyers.
Housing affordability remains a topical issue across most housing markets around Australia and many prospective home buyers are looking to minimise their debt by either purchasing a house in the outer fringes of the city or choosing an apartment located closer to the city. Both options have their pros and cons, however units are becoming an increasingly popular option, particularly amongst younger market segments like Gen Y’s and DINKS who like to live close to where they work and play.
Across the other large capital cities (Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) the price gap between the median house and unit price is much less at around 18%. In dollar value terms that still represents a sizeable price gap; generally around a $70,000 difference and slightly more than $60,000 in Adelaide. Going forward we are likely to see apartments continue to garner a larger share of the market.
Twenty years ago apartments comprised only about 25% of all sales. More recently the proportion of apartment sales peaked at 36% in mid 2009. The fall away since that time is most likely attributable to both a slow down in investor and first home buyer purchases as well as ‘off the plan’ sales yet to settle which do not appear in the figures.
Extract From RP Data Premium Property Pulse
Currently in Brisbane, apartment sales are 27% of all sales.
Housing affordability remains a topical issue across most housing markets around Australia and many prospective home buyers are looking to minimise their debt by either purchasing a house in the outer fringes of the city or choosing an apartment located closer to the city. Both options have their pros and cons, however units are becoming an increasingly popular option, particularly amongst younger market segments like Gen Y’s and DINKS who like to live close to where they work and play.
Across the other large capital cities (Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) the price gap between the median house and unit price is much less at around 18%. In dollar value terms that still represents a sizeable price gap; generally around a $70,000 difference and slightly more than $60,000 in Adelaide. Going forward we are likely to see apartments continue to garner a larger share of the market.
Twenty years ago apartments comprised only about 25% of all sales. More recently the proportion of apartment sales peaked at 36% in mid 2009. The fall away since that time is most likely attributable to both a slow down in investor and first home buyer purchases as well as ‘off the plan’ sales yet to settle which do not appear in the figures.
Extract From RP Data Premium Property Pulse
Currently in Brisbane, apartment sales are 27% of all sales.
Settlements Start At Soul
ANYONE who thinks Soul is heading for receivership because buyers won't settle will be "sadly disillusioned", veteran developer Graeme Juniper says.
The $850 million Surfers Paradise project has been 11 years in the making and Mr Juniper plans to see it through to the end.
"We have the complete support of our financiers and we are with this journey all the way through," the co-managing director of Juniper Group said. "We will be delivering this building and Juniper will be there -- it's that simple."
Settlements of the first stage of the apartment project began on Tuesday, a process expected to take months to complete.
The family-owned Juniper Group has contracts on 173 apartments in the first stage, but Mr Juniper could not disclose how many had settled.
He confirmed Juniper Group was still finding buyers despite the dire Gold Coast apartment market and that he had secured an unconditional 30-day contract for an apartment yesterday.
See Gold Coast Bulliten
I am not sure why settlement will take months. Usually, all settlements (even for a large building) are done in less than a week.
The $850 million Surfers Paradise project has been 11 years in the making and Mr Juniper plans to see it through to the end.
"We have the complete support of our financiers and we are with this journey all the way through," the co-managing director of Juniper Group said. "We will be delivering this building and Juniper will be there -- it's that simple."
Settlements of the first stage of the apartment project began on Tuesday, a process expected to take months to complete.
The family-owned Juniper Group has contracts on 173 apartments in the first stage, but Mr Juniper could not disclose how many had settled.
He confirmed Juniper Group was still finding buyers despite the dire Gold Coast apartment market and that he had secured an unconditional 30-day contract for an apartment yesterday.
See Gold Coast Bulliten
I am not sure why settlement will take months. Usually, all settlements (even for a large building) are done in less than a week.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
NAB Blackists 127 Queensland developments
According to The Age, the NAB Bank has blacklisted 127 Queensland developments, and will not lend money in relation to them (or at least, will take extra special care before doing so). Most of the properties on the list are serviced apartments, resorts or student accommodation. The list also includes inner-city apartments.
The list indicated the unnamed bank barred financing for all developments associated with the federal government's National Rental Affordability Scheme, an initiative designed to boost housing for low-income earners around the country.
It has been reported that most other banks have also refused to finance investors or buyers for NRAS properties, apart from St George, which accepts borrowers for one project in Queensland.
It has long been known that lenders often decline to provide finance for buyers of apartment buildings once they reach pre-set exposure limits, commonly when 15% to 25% of the total number of apartments have already been financed by the lender."
See Property Observer and The Age
The list indicated the unnamed bank barred financing for all developments associated with the federal government's National Rental Affordability Scheme, an initiative designed to boost housing for low-income earners around the country.
It has been reported that most other banks have also refused to finance investors or buyers for NRAS properties, apart from St George, which accepts borrowers for one project in Queensland.
It has long been known that lenders often decline to provide finance for buyers of apartment buildings once they reach pre-set exposure limits, commonly when 15% to 25% of the total number of apartments have already been financed by the lender."
See Property Observer and The Age
Brisbane House Rents
The median weekly asking rent for houses in Brisbane, according to RP Data, is $398 per week. The indicative gross rental yield for Brisbane houses is 4.7%. This is for houses, not apartments.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Brisbane Property Rebound Unlikely Until January
"January may mark a turnaround in Brisbane's flagging property market, but there is no sign of conditions improving before then, according to leading economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel.
The forecast reflects a sluggish start to the spring property season, as households are wary of taking on more debt and potential home buyers hold out for interest rate cuts."
Source: Brisbane Times
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Gold Coast High Rise
The headline of an article on page 21 of the Weekend Australian Financial Review this weekend is "Gold Coast high rise gets a nose bleed."
The article reports that more than $1 billion of apartments purchased at the top of the market are due to settle soon in The Oracle and Juniper's Soul developments.
Lawyers are apparently circling to try to get buyers out of contracts. For example, it is said that Nyst Lawyers believe buyers can get out of their Soul contracts because the Soul development is now being managed by Mirvac under the Sea Temple brand. What a crazy argument. The buyers want to get out of the contracts because the contract price that they promised to pay is now too much. The buyers took a risk, and lost out. You have to be very careful when buying off the plan.
The AFR reports that prices in Soul are down about 17%, based on one resale of a 23rd floor three bedroom apartment, 161 sqm, that sold off the plan for $1.8 million and resold in February this year for $1.5 million.
The article reports that more than $1 billion of apartments purchased at the top of the market are due to settle soon in The Oracle and Juniper's Soul developments.
Lawyers are apparently circling to try to get buyers out of contracts. For example, it is said that Nyst Lawyers believe buyers can get out of their Soul contracts because the Soul development is now being managed by Mirvac under the Sea Temple brand. What a crazy argument. The buyers want to get out of the contracts because the contract price that they promised to pay is now too much. The buyers took a risk, and lost out. You have to be very careful when buying off the plan.
The AFR reports that prices in Soul are down about 17%, based on one resale of a 23rd floor three bedroom apartment, 161 sqm, that sold off the plan for $1.8 million and resold in February this year for $1.5 million.
Infinity
According to an advertorial in this Saturday's Courier Mail, Meriton's Infinity apartment building has about 200 residential apartments remaining for sale, out of a total of 548 apartments. That sounds too good to be true to me. One bedrooms are priced from $380,000; two bedrooms from $550,000; three bedrooms from $949,000. According to the newspaper, many buyers are from Sydney and China. Meriton staff are currently attending property seminars in China to promote this building.
Completion is expected in late 2013 or early 2014. Construction is underway, with the seven level underground carpark complete, and work up to level 1 above ground.
Completion is expected in late 2013 or early 2014. Construction is underway, with the seven level underground carpark complete, and work up to level 1 above ground.
Fish Lane Apartments
Launching this month is a new apartment development in South Brisbane, Fish Lane Apartments.
Located on Melbourne Street, this development will have 48 apartments. One bedroom apartments are priced from $360,000. Two bedroom apartments are priced from $560,000. There will be only 5 apartments per floor. The building is 9 stories high.
Located on Melbourne Street, this development will have 48 apartments. One bedroom apartments are priced from $360,000. Two bedroom apartments are priced from $560,000. There will be only 5 apartments per floor. The building is 9 stories high.
Friday, September 9, 2011
New Book: Investing in Brisbane Apartments
.Currently, this book is available only via the Amazon Kindle store. If you don't have a Kindle, then you can download for free Kindle software apps for an iPad, iPhone, Mac or PC. If you can read this blog, then you can use Kindle software to read this new book. Click on the following link for the software to read this book:
The Chapters include:
- Apartments as Investments
- Buying Decisions
- Off the plan apartments
- Renting Your Apartment
- Foreign Investors
- Legal Structures for Apartments
REIQ Brisbane Apartment Report
Queensland’s unit and townhouse market shrugged off this year’s natural disasters and the current economic conservatism to record mostly positive results over the June quarter, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).
The REIQ June quarter median unit and townhouse report found the preliminary number of sales rebounded robustly across most of the State with median prices also holding firm.
REIQ managing director Dan Molloy said unit and townhouse sales were up about eight per cent compared to the March quarter courtesy of increased first home buyer and investor demand particularly.
For the Brisbane downtown area, the medium price for the June 2011 quarter was $448,000. This was up 0.1% on the previous quarter. The medium price for the 12 months to June 2011 was $475,000, up 6% on the 12 months to June 2010 (which was $448,000.)
Inner Brisbane Does Best
"Of all the capital cities, house values in Brisbane recorded the largest declines over the 12 months to June, falling by -6.9%. As the accompanying table shows, not one region of Brisbane has recorded positive growth in house values over the past 12 months. The magnitude of value falls has varied from a -0.1% fall in Inner Brisbane to a -13.9% fall in values within Beaudesert Shire Part A which comprises the southern suburbs of the Logan council region."
Source: RP Data Newsletter.
More details in Brisbane Times article, which concludes:
"“The subdued capital growth across the detached house market compared with units is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns as well home buyers seeking more affordable alternatives such as units over houses,” he said.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Inner Brisbane Vacancy Rates Under Pressure
Vacancy rates in Inner Brisbane are under pressure, as population increases and a shortage of new supply sees available properties dwindle, says leading property researcher Michael Matusik. Mr Matusik, director of Matusik Property Insights, said the tight vacancy rates could be attributed to a relative lack of new development in inner Brisbane, which is experiencing a resurgence in its popularity with new residents. “Inner Brisbane is attracting an average of around 5,000 new permanent residents per annum, and that is expected to continue over the next decade, whereas in the 1990s it was losing permanent residents,” he said. “The change can be credited to a shift in demographics, with an increase in lone person households and couples without children in the precinct, who are looking for a lifestyle of convenience close to amenities and transport to the CBD.”
Inner Brisbane suburbs Milton, Paddington and Rosalie are leading the charge, with figures from the Residential Tenancies Authority showing rent in these areas have risen by about 5.6 per cent over the past 24 months.
Mr Matusik said Milton was a prime example, where vacancy rates had plunged to just 0.7 per cent, with a vacancy rate under 3 per cent considered to be undersupplied. He said about two-thirds, or 62 per cent, of households in Milton were renting, which was representative of other inner city precincts. Mr Matusik said dwindling vacancy rates were not expected to improve in the short term, with the undersupply of new stock set to continue.
“For example, Milton has recorded the second highest population growth in Inner Brisbane at 4.4 per cent per annum over the past five years, just behind Kelvin Grove, which has led to its extremely low vacancy rate,” Mr Matusik said. “It is part of the Inner West precinct, which is one of the most undersupplied markets in Brisbane.
“Just 10 per cent of the current supply of new apartments for sale in Inner Brisbane are located in the Inner West, with FKP’s The Milton the only project currently selling off the plan.”
Inner Brisbane suburbs Milton, Paddington and Rosalie are leading the charge, with figures from the Residential Tenancies Authority showing rent in these areas have risen by about 5.6 per cent over the past 24 months.
Mr Matusik said Milton was a prime example, where vacancy rates had plunged to just 0.7 per cent, with a vacancy rate under 3 per cent considered to be undersupplied. He said about two-thirds, or 62 per cent, of households in Milton were renting, which was representative of other inner city precincts. Mr Matusik said dwindling vacancy rates were not expected to improve in the short term, with the undersupply of new stock set to continue.
“For example, Milton has recorded the second highest population growth in Inner Brisbane at 4.4 per cent per annum over the past five years, just behind Kelvin Grove, which has led to its extremely low vacancy rate,” Mr Matusik said. “It is part of the Inner West precinct, which is one of the most undersupplied markets in Brisbane.
“Just 10 per cent of the current supply of new apartments for sale in Inner Brisbane are located in the Inner West, with FKP’s The Milton the only project currently selling off the plan.”
Sad news - 2 balcony deaths
This weekend was Riverfire, and sadly, two people died in separate incidents, both due to falls from apartment balconies. A young man fell from Pradella's Allegro apartments at South Brisbane. Another man fell from River Plaza, in Dock Street, South Brisbane.
Full details in this story.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Soul to be branded as Sea Temple
The Juniper Soul building on the Gold Coast will be managed by Mirvac under the Sea Temple brand. With settlements due very soon, it will be interesting to see how many actually settle. Or will we have another Oracle problem? There are already dark shadows and issues about soul food. Even the development debt is for sale.
Sunshine Coast Not Investor Friendly
Property valuers Herron Todd White report that the Sunshine Coast is not investor friendly. High taxation, and no representation. Not a good long term situation.
"Holiday units are typically returning a gross yield in the vicinity of 7% to 7.5% however after management fees etc, the net yield would be in the vicinity of 5%.
One of the drawbacks of owning investment property on the coast continues to be the additional levies that are being charged by the Sunshine Coast Regional Council. these are charged on all non-owner occupied properties, even when they are holiday homes which are not rented. this leaves a sour taste in the mouths of investors, most of whom are not locals who don’t have the opportunity to cast a protest vote."
Source: HTW Report
"Holiday units are typically returning a gross yield in the vicinity of 7% to 7.5% however after management fees etc, the net yield would be in the vicinity of 5%.
One of the drawbacks of owning investment property on the coast continues to be the additional levies that are being charged by the Sunshine Coast Regional Council. these are charged on all non-owner occupied properties, even when they are holiday homes which are not rented. this leaves a sour taste in the mouths of investors, most of whom are not locals who don’t have the opportunity to cast a protest vote."
Source: HTW Report
HTW Market Update
If you purchase a flooded property, you may find yourself paying 5% to 20% discount on what similar but non flooded properties are selling for in the same suburb and without a dramatic discount in rent. ...
That said, there are some suburbs that were tarnished by the flood that offer excellent value for non-flooded stock due to the overall lack of buyer confidence. For example, st Lucia has a ready source of student renters, is close to the CbD and enjoys good local services, but its riverfront areas copped a hiding in January. As a result, the dry property (and there is plenty) has also had a downturn. not too long ago, one of our valuers had a look at a two- bedroom, three-level townhouse that sold for $400,000 and will easily see $430 per week in rent. A 5.5% gross return in this location is a very nice earner indeed. ...
General market conditions across the Gold Coast are very tight. only those properties where the vendor is willing to meet the market are selling. there is generally an oversupply of similar properties listed for sale. Feedback from locals within the property industry indicate that the market may not yet have bottomed out which is concerning potential buyers. Our opinion is that we are bumping along the bottom similar to the late 1990’s and that properties will sell within a wider value range depending on the circumstances of the vendor.<
Source: HTW Report
That said, there are some suburbs that were tarnished by the flood that offer excellent value for non-flooded stock due to the overall lack of buyer confidence. For example, st Lucia has a ready source of student renters, is close to the CbD and enjoys good local services, but its riverfront areas copped a hiding in January. As a result, the dry property (and there is plenty) has also had a downturn. not too long ago, one of our valuers had a look at a two- bedroom, three-level townhouse that sold for $400,000 and will easily see $430 per week in rent. A 5.5% gross return in this location is a very nice earner indeed. ...
General market conditions across the Gold Coast are very tight. only those properties where the vendor is willing to meet the market are selling. there is generally an oversupply of similar properties listed for sale. Feedback from locals within the property industry indicate that the market may not yet have bottomed out which is concerning potential buyers. Our opinion is that we are bumping along the bottom similar to the late 1990’s and that properties will sell within a wider value range depending on the circumstances of the vendor.<
Source: HTW Report
Growth Slows in last 5 years
"Over the past ten years capital city home values have increased at an average annual rate of 6.8%, however it has been a tale of two distinct five year periods: the boom times during the first part of the decade and more subdued growth recently. ...
Overall the data highlights the impact of the property 2001-2004 ‘property boom’ which has well and truly lifted the annual growth rates across the first half of the decade. The two recent growth phases (ie 2007 calendar year and 2009/2010) were much more sublime compared to the meteoric rate of growth early in the new century. Looking to the future, with housing credit growth constrained and affordability a barrier to market entry, property values are likely to grow at a slower pace and the likelihood of large spikes in value growth over a 12-24 month period as witnessed at times during the past decade is less likely. Basically, property value growth fundamentals are largely returning to normal conditions after being abnormal for much of the last decade. "
Source: RP Data
Property collapse talk is taken out of context
"RPData’s index suggests that maybe the worst is behind us, with the monthly and quarterly results starting to trend upwards. This recovery, however, is likely to be slower than those in the past, as many markets are now priced over $500,000, which presents an affordability barrier to many households and especially investors and first home buyers. It will take some time before wages grow enough to start pushing dwelling prices."
Source: Matusik
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
RP Data Home Value Index Released Today
Based on approximately 178,000 home sales over the year to July, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index recorded a seasonally-adjusted fall of -0.6 per cent in capital city home values over the month of July (-0.9 per cent in raw terms).
Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent. According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, this national result conceals wide divergences across the individual cities.
Over the 12 months to July 2011, Australian capital city home values are off -2.9 per cent. Mr Lawless said that it looks like a multi-speed housing market: Brisbane (-6.6 per cent), Perth (-6.3 per cent), and Melbourne (-4.3 per cent) have all experienced significant declines over the last year, whereas the 35 per cent of Australia's capital city population that lives in Canberra (+1.9 per cent) and Sydney (+0.5 per cent) had realised capital gains.
"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase," Mr Joye said.
Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data.
Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft.
Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent. According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, this national result conceals wide divergences across the individual cities.
Over the 12 months to July 2011, Australian capital city home values are off -2.9 per cent. Mr Lawless said that it looks like a multi-speed housing market: Brisbane (-6.6 per cent), Perth (-6.3 per cent), and Melbourne (-4.3 per cent) have all experienced significant declines over the last year, whereas the 35 per cent of Australia's capital city population that lives in Canberra (+1.9 per cent) and Sydney (+0.5 per cent) had realised capital gains.
"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase," Mr Joye said.
Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data.
Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft.
Extracted from Press Release
Looking at the table above (capital growth, apartments not houses), which is extracted from the RP Data tables released today, it seems that Brisbane apartment prices may be on the rebound? Or are there so few sales in Brisbane that these numbers are not particularly reliable?
Sunday, August 28, 2011
From RP Data
"Australians are choosing to own their homes for longer with the average time frame between house sales increasing from 6.8 years 10 years ago to 8.6 years in 2011. [For Brisbane apartments, the average hold period is 6.8 years, which is an increase of 7 months over the past ten years.]
The RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results for July 2011 will be released on Wednesday next week. We anticipate that the results aren’t likely to show much deviation from the past month to month trend; the market is flat to falling, Sydney is the best performer while Brisbane and Perth are the laggards. In recent months the rate of value decline has been slowing with a fall of just -0.2% during June across the combined capital cities. We expect fairly similar conditions when the July results are released next week. Certainly with low levels of consumer confidence we would not expect an improvement in sales volumes or return to value growth so long as consumers continue to act in a cautious nature.
The total number of properties listed for sale remains at elevated levels, increasing by 4.3% over the week nationally and by 5.4% across the combined capital cities. Total listings remain at elevated levels, 33.1% higher than they were last year nationally and 32.0% higher across the capital cities. It will be interesting to see what happens with listings in the coming week, given the weak market conditions and inflated listing volumes an increase coming in to spring would not be beneficial for the market."
The total number of properties listed for sale remains at elevated levels, increasing by 4.3% over the week nationally and by 5.4% across the combined capital cities. Total listings remain at elevated levels, 33.1% higher than they were last year nationally and 32.0% higher across the capital cities. It will be interesting to see what happens with listings in the coming week, given the weak market conditions and inflated listing volumes an increase coming in to spring would not be beneficial for the market."
Saturday, August 27, 2011
House Price Crash
This is a good article on property investment, and points out some of the risks of off-the-plan purchases and dealing with developers.
Rent apartment for "free" lottery scheme
Have a look at Keys to Brisbane, where a Brisbane apartment owner has a competition or lottery to win the apartment rent free for a year. The owner is reported as saying that if he does not get a substantial number of entrants who pay $20, he will cancel this lottery and refund the $20.
Wall Street Journal Report on Australia Housing
"Locally, buyers have already started to wane. In the last year, there were 90,210 first-home buyers across Australia, 35% lower than the previous year and a seven-year low, according to BankWest, a Western Australia-based lender and unit of Commonwealth Bank.
Mr. Donnelly, whose firm has sold residential property in Australia worth more than A$1.2 billion to mostly overseas investors, says the market in Sydney and Brisbane could sidestep some of the weakness, largely because both fell behind in the recent development push.
Brisbane has also been weak, with prices off more than 6% this year, but much of the drop stems from the devastation to the capital of Queensland state earlier in the year from a series of floods."
Extract from WSJ report on decline in Australian property market
Oversupply of Apartments in Brisbane, especially Hamilton and Albion
THE number of apartments planned for Brisbane's inner north is the biggest threat to the success of the city's apartment market.
The June quarter report by real estate agent Place Advisory on inner Brisbane's apartment market says new developments planned for this precinct, which includes suburbs such as Bowen Hills through to Hamilton, threaten to create an oversupply in coming months.
Large multi-density communities are being approved almost on a weekly basis, while new mixed-use communities are poised to enter pre-release marketing campaigns before Christmas.
Place Advisory says that if many of these projects are not an overwhelming success, it will add to an already pessimistic local dynamic, ultimately driving away buyers from off-the-plan sales. The success or failure of only a few will affect the wider Brisbane property market in the longer term, it says.
Almost 70 per cent of the unconditional sales during the quarter were priced under $550,000. Only 6 per cent were above $750,000. Total sales were about $136 million, in line with the average total quarterly sales in the past five years.
There were 2144 new residential apartments for sale, or about 27 months' of stock, in inner Brisbane at the end of the financial year.
Of these, 50 per cent were two-bedroom, 33 per cent are one-bedroom apartments, and only 12 per cent three-bedroom configurations.
Place says most of the unconditional sales in the quarter were to interstate or international buyers.
The June quarter report by real estate agent Place Advisory on inner Brisbane's apartment market says new developments planned for this precinct, which includes suburbs such as Bowen Hills through to Hamilton, threaten to create an oversupply in coming months.
Large multi-density communities are being approved almost on a weekly basis, while new mixed-use communities are poised to enter pre-release marketing campaigns before Christmas.
Place Advisory says that if many of these projects are not an overwhelming success, it will add to an already pessimistic local dynamic, ultimately driving away buyers from off-the-plan sales. The success or failure of only a few will affect the wider Brisbane property market in the longer term, it says.
Almost 70 per cent of the unconditional sales during the quarter were priced under $550,000. Only 6 per cent were above $750,000. Total sales were about $136 million, in line with the average total quarterly sales in the past five years.
There were 2144 new residential apartments for sale, or about 27 months' of stock, in inner Brisbane at the end of the financial year.
Of these, 50 per cent were two-bedroom, 33 per cent are one-bedroom apartments, and only 12 per cent three-bedroom configurations.
Place says most of the unconditional sales in the quarter were to interstate or international buyers.
Source: The Australian
Brisbane property market "reasonably depressed"
"RP Data research director Tim Lawless does not expect a big pick-up in the number of properties being offered for sale. His figures show there are about 30,100 properties for sale across greater Brisbane - about 26 per cent more than at the same time last year.
Throughout the state there are about 88,900 homes being advertised for sale, about 31 per cent higher than at the same time last year.
"The Brisbane market is still reasonably depressed, so I would be surprised if the spring selling season sees a dramatic influx of homes added to the market," he said.
"It is not a great time to be selling a property.
"Transaction volumes are about a third lower than what they have averaged over the past five years, houses are taking a longer than normal time to sell (about two months on average) and vendors are having to offer larger than normal discounts from their asking prices in order to make a sale (about 8.1 per cent) in June."
Mr Lawless said there might be a modest boost in listing volumes in spring. "And we are probably also going to see a revamp of marketing activity for those homes that have been available for sale over an extended period."
Source: Courier Mail
Devine's Brisbane City and Teneriffe Plans
Devine also has two pending apartment projects in the Brisbane CBD, one on Albert Street at the corner of Margaret Street (the Camelot site) and another nearby on Margaret Street opposite the synagogue. From Devine's reports, it looks like these two city buildings are a long way off.
Devine's Hamilton Harbour
Devine reports to the Australian Stock Exchange, as at 25 August 2011, the following in relation to its Hamilton Harbour apartment development:
"Continued strong sales performance
• HarbourOne - 98%sold ($137 million in value)
• HarbourTwo - 86% sold ($92 million in value)
• Riverside - 60% sold ($57 million in value)
Construction on schedule for all three towers:
• TowerOne 78% complete
• TowerTwo 63% complete
• TowerThree commenced
Significant progress on mixed-use elements of Hamilton Harbour with strong retail and commercial leasing underway
Construction on Hamilton Harbour is ahead of schedule and under budget with completion of first two towers in first half of FY12
• Hamilton Harbour TowersOne and Two are both ‘topped out’, with fit-out complete on over 60% of apartments
• Construction delivered revenue of $108 million
• Devine Construction awarded $60 million contract to build ‘Riverside’ – the third tower at Hamilton Harbour."
So, Riverside is costing $60 million to build (including profit for the builder); and 60% sold gives $57 million in sales. Looks like a good profit margin here for Devine.
Sunland's Brisbane Development
Sunland reports that it was holding discussions with Cbus Property about a joint venture for $250 million Carrington Tower on Alice Street (also known as the French Quarter site -- that Devine sold to Sunland). The new tower (B1??) is awaiting final approvals. Mr Abedian of Sunland is reported as saying:
"With a project as unique as Carrington and given its proximity to the city and entry into the Botanic Gardens, we will ensure that the timing of the launch is one where we have the greatest confidence. We think 2012 is the more appropriate time to launch such a project. But we are no in a hurry and we won't rush a flagship project such as this."
It sounds to me like this apartment development will not start construction for some time.
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