"In pure capital terms, Australian capital city dwelling values have declined by -3.2 per cent over the 12 months to August 2011. However, accounting for rents, the total returns have been a positive +1.1 per cent over the year.
Mr Kusher also highlighted the wide divergences in housing outcomes across Australia. In the 12 months to August 2011, Perth capital values fell by -7.1 per cent (s.a.). Yet in Sydney home values are up 0.3 per cent (s.a.). Total returns also vary markedly on a city-by-city basis. While Melbourne (-2.0 per cent), Perth (-2.0 per cent), Adelaide (-1.8 per cent) and Brisbane (-1.6 per cent) have all experienced negative total returns over the first eight months of 2011, Sydney (+3.4 per cent), Canberra (+2.8 per cent), and Darwin (+1.8 per cent) are in the black.
Analysis shows that the premium sector of the market remains the most volatile. The most expensive 20 per cent of suburbs have recorded capital value (ie, exclusive of rents) falls of -5.5 per cent over the last year compared with a - 3.1 per cent capital loss across the broad "middle" market and a -2.9 per cent capital loss amongst the 20 per cent of most affordable suburbs."
The chart below is for apartments only, not seasonly adjusted.
“The Brisbane result is encouraging following fairly sizeable monthly falls,” Kusher tells Property Observer. “It suggests Brisbane may be near the bottom of the market.”