Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Up or Down or Flat?

According to Chris Joye, Australian housing prices are unlikely to crash, but will more likely tread water.

"While the Aussie share market is still nearly 40% below its 2007 peaks, Australian house prices are about 10.3% above their pre-GFC highs. Notwithstanding this, we have had effectively no house price growth in nearly one and a half years while household disposable incomes have, according to the ABS, raced ahead at an 7% to 8% per annum rate.

The next major marker will be the August house price index data. This will be a crucial guide to whether Australia's housing market is experiencing an accelerating decline, as folks like the perennial doomsayer Steve Keen would have us believe."

See note by Chris Joye

Michael Yardney reckons property prices are likely to increase, in the next decade!

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