Monday, September 28, 2009

The Bottom Has Passed?

"Australia's top institutional and private investors believe the nation is well and truly past the bottom of the property cycle and now heading towards upswing, according to new survey findings released by Colliers International.

The second Colliers International Investor Sentiment Survey, conducted late last month, has shown investors around the country believe that if the property cycle were a clock, with the top of the market at 12 o'clock and the bottom at 6 o'clock, Australia moved upwards to 7 o'clock in Q3-09, after the majority of investors believed the same clock sat at 5 o'clock when they were first surveyed in May for Q2-09. ...

The majority of investors, at 52 per cent, believe Australia is not only past the bottom of the property cycle, but 64% also believe the upswing will occur earlier than indicated in the first survey - by Q2/Q3 2010 or even earlier, instead of in Q4 2010. ...

When asked how they would describe their property investment strategy over the next 12 months, the majority of investors, almost half at 49 per cent, identified they were heading into growth mode, with 43 per cent in defend mode or holding steady. Only 8 per cent were expecting to contract holdings.

Investors also signalled the green light to purchase property is now definitely on. 69 per cent now expect to buy property in Australia over the next 12 months, up from 63 per cent in May. Investors also expect it will become easier to buy property with 47 per cent believing access to debt capital will become easier in the next 12 months, versus just 20 per cent in the May survey.

Most investors, at 45 per cent, are looking to buy office property, with the top 5 buy markets identified as Sydney Office (20 per cent), Melbourne Office (15 per cent), Sydney Residential (7 per cent), Melbourne Residential (6 per cent) and Sydney Industrial (6 per cent). ...

Residential was again the standout property sector with the majority of investors believing values had only declined by 1 to 10 per cent since the peak of the market, while 16 per cent believed residential values hadn't changed at all, or even witnessed some growth. The majority of investors believe there will be no further softening to residential values and 8 per cent believe there will now be growth."

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