Sunday, June 22, 2008
Rates Protest and Rates Analysis
[Click on image to make bigger]
Meriton Confident About Brisbane - AFR
Story from Thursday's AFR (19/-6/08, page 55) that despite drop in sales volumes for new city apartments, Meriton is still interested in Brisbane.
Waterfront at Newstead
Mirvac has released its top end apartments for its Waterfront Newstead project. Overall, this project will consist of a huge number of apartments. The first release was of the 99 best apartments, with river views. All apartments are large 3 or 4 bedroom apartments. Many have sold. Price range $2,150,000 to $4,500,000 for apartments and $6.4M to $8.9M for penthouses. These are all large apartments, but constructed on a highly contaminated (and hopefully cleaned) site.
Mirvac's Quay West
Mirvac built (and continues to manage) the Quay West apartment building in Brisbane's Alice Street, overlooking the botanical gardens. Large one and two bedroom apartments on the lower levels, with penthouse apartments on the top 5 levels. One of the residents is a senior person from Devine, who is constructing the French Quarter development next door. The French Quarter development will move the prices of Quay West even higher.
One bedroom on level 9, listed at $525,000Two bedroom on level 16, listed at $850,000
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Protest at Council Tax Increases
"More than 100 angry inner-city apartment dwellers attended a public meeting at City Hall today to protest "unfair" rate hikes in the order of 150 to 300 per cent."
Brisbane TimesNo relief for Brisbane apartment renters
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/20/2281399.htm
Brisbane Labor Councillor David Hinchcliffe says according to his calculations, which are based on the Council's budget figures, rates on some inner-city apartments will rise by up to 700 per cent.
But Lord Mayor Campbell Newman has rejected such figures.
"There have been some significant increases for a small number of properties around the CBD and CBD frame," he said.
"Typically the increase... for the hardest-hit people is around about 150 to 160 per cent."
"The worst increase for any unit in the whole of the city of Brisbane is 300 per cent."
Mirvac Downgrade
"Due to the sustained deterioration in market conditions including prolonged global financial market volatility, rising cost of capital and general slow down in global and Australian economic conditions, Mirvac has reassessed the value of residential and non-residential developments, intangible values and co-investments in managed listed funds. Accordingly, Mirvac has adjusted its asset carrying values of between $300 million and $400 million, a 3.8 per cent to 5.0 per cent decrease in total asset value."
"Current weakness in the NSW residential market will continue and will, to varying degrees, be experienced across other markets."
"Strong product positioning and premium brand continues to attract pre-sales in excess of $950 million1 of exchanged contracts due to settle from FY09 to FY11"
http://www.mirvac.com.au/investor/pdf/20080620_mirvac_group_market_update.pdfWednesday, June 18, 2008
Price Report
News.com.au
North Bank Dead?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23879482-3102,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23883742-3102,00.html
Brisbane Times
Construction Near Oaks Apartments in Brisbane
If you are buying or renting or doing a short stay in an Oaks apartment, make sure there is no construction nearby. This morning, walking down Albert Street, I past 3 construction sites, all next to apartments. It was before 8am, and there were jackhammers that I could hear more than a block away from Charlotte Towers.
Oaks Charlotte Towers
Oaks 212 Margaret Street
Oaks River City
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Prediction from BIS Shrapnel
Interest rate rises to stall residential property price growth in most centres despite record net overseas migration and a rising deficiency of dwellings.
Independent economic forecaster and industry analyst, BIS Shrapnel, expects all Australian residential property markets will experience marginal price increases in 2008/09 as interest rate rises halt price growth rather than force a downturn.
BIS Shrapnel is forecasting another interest rate rise to come through in September quarter 2008. Despite a further rate increase, the average cost of renting is set to rise much more than the cost of buying in 2008/09 and 2009/10, due to the undersupply of new housing.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
REIQ Apartment Price Report for Brisbane - First Q 2008
REIQ March Quarter Unit Report:
Downtown Brisbane:
Median March Quarter: $450,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $449,755
Change over 1 year - 6.5%
West End:
Median March Quarter: $625,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $518,500
St Lucia:
Median March Quarter: $510,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $401,500
Indooroopilly
Median March Quarter: $425,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $401,750
From the Brisbane Times:
"REIQ chairman Peter McGrath said current figures reflect historical averages for the year's first quarter.
"Brisbane is coming down off a high, so to speak ... the market is simply returning to normal," Mr McGrath said.
Yet Mr McGrath conceded investor demand has cooled recently as servicing increasing loan repayments becomes more difficult.
"Investors appear to be staying out of the market until rents reach a level where they match the increase in interest rates and they are confident that the market has definitely stabilised," he said.
The trend has been felt hardest within the CBD, where apartments in complexes on Charlotte Street have remained unsold for four months.
"It is taking 30 days longer to sell inner-city apartments because investors are bowing out," LJ Hooker Brisbane Central principal agent Alexandra Rutherford said.
Prices have been scaled back accordingly Ms Rutherford said.
"We have had apartments priced at $480,000 reduced to $460,000 and some reduced to $420,000."
However, Mr McGrath warned real estate agents against judging the current market against last year's anomoly.
"I don't think some agents realised how good it was last year, thinking. it could last forever. Now we are just moving back to a more traditional market," he said."
Rates and Rents to Increase
"TENANTS will be slugged with rent increases as council rates, high property demand, and interest rates take a hold on the industry, analysts say.
The Brisbane City Council's Budget imposed a rate increase of 8.76 per cent and extra tax for luxury innercity apartments, will sting renters already under pressure from a 55 per cent rise over the past five years...."
See Courier Mail article"The rates increase for unit owners will rise from 7.9 per cent for a unit on land valued at less than $1 million, to 9 per cent for land valued between $1 million and $5 million, by 16 per cent for land between $5million and $10million and 60 per cent on land worth more than $10million.
These rates are higher for apartments that are investment properties."
See Brisbane Times article
See also Brisbane Times article
These increases will not only increase rents, but will make buyers think twice before buying an apartment in Brisbane.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Oaks and Aurora
This is what the Supreme Court of Queensland wrote in a judgment concerning management rights for Aurora. It appears that the original developer did not want the building managed by Oaks as that would hurt sales. Aurora is now managed by Oaks.
"Oaks is in the business of providing accommodation for travellers, holiday makers and semi-itinerant urban workers. The news that the plaintiff, the proposed letting agent for the Aurora complex, would become an Oaks subsidiary caused considerable anxiety in the minds of the defendants’ directors. Rightly or wrongly they associated Oaks with a distinctly plain, perhaps plebeian, approach to the provision of accommodation. To maximise profit from its development the first defendant asked high prices for Aurora’s residential lots and promoted the development as one suitable for those who enjoy wealth and its display. They thought that Oaks’ reputation and its method of operation would be inimical to achieving that result.
The first defendant had two concerns. The first was Oaks’ involvement as the letting agent. The second was the operation of ‘short term accommodation, serviced apartments or hotel style accommodation typically used as holiday and nightly business or corporate accommodation ...’ from the tower. Mr Morris anticipated that about one third of the buyers of residential lots would live in the units but the balance, about 320 owners, would let their apartments to tenants. Mr Morris believed that letting a large number of units on a short term basis would be inimical to the first defendant’s proposed marketing strategy. As he said:
Both Mr Potts and Mr Morris were disposed to deny that Oaks’ involvement in the letting of units in Aurora was a particular concern. They maintained that it was the prospect of frequent numerous changes of tenants in the building which would reduce its appeal to buyers, regardless of the identity of the letting agent. If it matters I express my satisfaction that Messrs Potts and Morris were particularly alarmed at the thought that Oaks would be the letting agent. Indications of this fear appear in the correspondence, and I thought their denials unconvincing.‘... the operation of a short term accommodation business from the Aurora Tower, particularly of the kind which appears from the Oaks prospectus would be conducted by Oaks, would be completely inconsistent with the way the development had been promoted, advertised and marketed and inconsistent with the type of development that buyers were told it would be.’
...
The plaintiff’s solicitors’ file note records the discussion:
It should perhaps be noted briefly that the possibility of the plaintiff operating a hotel from Aurora Tower was so slight as to be disregarded by any sensible person. The building is not suitable for use as a hotel. It does not have sufficient lifts, storage space, staff quarters or vehicular access to function as a hotel. This was accepted by all parties. The first defendant cannot sensibly have thought that the plaintiff, or Oaks, would conduct a hotel from the tower.‘Having sold the units to owners on the basis of it being a high quality residential complex ... owners would have some claim against the developer and possibly some way of getting out of the contracts if it became branded as an Oaks hotel/resort. It was acknowledged that the sale of contract contemplated that ... owners could let out units for short term lettings but it was never promoted as a short term letting complex, hotel or resort.’
...
It is possible to let a substantial number of the units as serviced apartments but to do so would require some physical alteration to the building. There would need to be a large storage room for bed linen and towels and probably facilities for the cleaning staff. These alterations could only occur with the approval of the body corporate. The consequence is that the letting agent could only let a large number of apartments as serviced ones with the approval of the body corporate which would have to effect the alterations on its common property. The first defendant could hardly complain about lots let as serviced apartments if the parties to the letting agreement agreed on that course and, if necessary, varied the letting agreement to effect it."
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/qld/QSC/2007/264.html
But Aurora is now a hotel: Brisbane Times
Parklands at Sherwood
Pradella's Parklands at Sherwood development, stages 1 and 2, are reported to be more than 50% sold, with settlement of Stage 1 planned for the end of this year.
Newsletter.Admiralty One - New Listings for 2 bed apartments
A few days ago, I wrote about a good 2 bed apartment for sale in Admiralty Towers Two. I have recently become aware of two large two bedroom apartments for sale in the neighbouring building, Admiralty Towers. These apartments are large -- 130 sqm for a 2 bedroom apartment -- which is larger than many three bedroom apartments being built today. Absolute river views that can never be built out. End apartments, so windows on the side (for the kitchen and bathroom). Admiralty Towers has a well run body corporate and a large sinking fund.
Two bedrooms listed for sale at $880,000.
Two bedrooms listed for sale at $840,000.It is unusual for these kind of 2 bedrooms to be offered for sale.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Admiralty Two - New Listing
An apartment design that I consider to be a very good design, in a good building, is now listed for sale. It is a two bedroom, two bathroom apartment in Admiralty Towers Two. It is large compared to newer apartments -- 116 sqm -- and has a quality feel. (There are other 2 bed designs in this building that are smaller, so take care when doing comparisons.) Good views and good location. The building has two pools, and apartment owners on the higher floor have exclusive access to the rooftop pool and gym. The balcony is not large, but this results in more internal space. Plenty of cupboards and a separate laundry room / storage room inside the apartment. Admiralty Towers Two has no short term rentals.
This apartment is on level 28, and is listed at $850,000.
Compare this renovated apartment in River Place, listed at $875,000. River Place is a lesser quality building, with many more apartments and vacation rentals. It has a great outdoor pool, overlooking the river, and the apartments have a larger usable balcony (but with the airconditioner compressor located on the balcony!)Saturday, June 7, 2008
El Dorado Indooroopilly Redevelopment
Friday, June 6, 2008
Comment on Matusik
"I think the report misses some important trends, there are also quite a few factual errors.
For one, not ALL US houses mortgages are non-recourse, only a few states including California. MOST US houses mortgages are recourse. The biggest difference between the US and Australia is the commodity boom, but how long will that last?
Second, all the 0-down, interest-only mortgages are mushrooming in Australia as well. Australia also has stated-income loans which is no different from the US.
Second, he entirely misses the point of what commodity boom does to evolution of cities. If he concedes that the commodity (particularly energy) boom will go on for years, which argues for a booming property market, then it is the inner cities or places with good public transportation will benefit. However, he was presenting a sprawling suburban future that is completely impossible with oil price heading for the sky. He predicts that people will start commuting from Blue Mountains, it is just not going to happen if gas price is on the current track.
He is also completely off the mark in predicting a mild US recession. Many financial heavy weights including Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, George Soros etc have come out to say that this is going to be the worst recession since the Great Depression, which is a euphemism of saying Great Depression Episode II.
The funniest of all is, if he thinks everything is rosy, US will recover in 2009, and Australia's commodity boom will go on forever, why will interest rate FALL in 2009? Shouldn't interest rate fall because the economy is NOT doing so well???
I can understand that Matusik is always arguing that property can only go up up up because he is sponsored by real estate developers, but this report just looks way to biased, to the extent that he cannot even get facts right."
Is Indigo embarrassed about Kelvin Grove?
In this weeks Brisbane News, there is a half page advertisement that has two apartments listed for sale. Strangely, the advertisement does not include the name of the developer or the suburb or the name of the development. It merely says "2km CBD". Internal photographs and floor plans are included, along with pricing (2 bedroom apartment for "only $559,000.")
The advertisement is for apartments in Indigo's Kelvin Grove Village Centre. See this realestate.com advertisement for the same apartment. ("And with 5.25% net rental return guarentee for 24 months, free legals and blinds, this property ticks all the boxes. Will rent unfurnished for $490 per week.")
The advertisement in the Brisbane News also puts the wrong floor plan against each apartment.
Why isn't Indigo identifying the apartment in the Brisbane News as being located in the Kelvin Grove Village Centre? Is it because this is considered to be a detriment, not a benefit?
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Matusik on Brisbane Property
Matusik, who is often engaged by developers to write reports that are provided to potential purchasers, states the following in a seminar given for Urban Pacific at Fernbrooke on 28 May 2008:
- one in three new apartment projects fell over in 2007. The attrition rate could be as high as 50% this year.
- the cost to provide new inner city apartments is much higher now than suburban detached housing. i.e. $575,000 for 2 bed apt (85sqm/1 car space) versus $385,000 for 3 bed house (225sqm/320 sqm allotment)
- overall today investors make up less than 30% of the market.
- 80% of detached houses are held by owner-residents as is 50% of our semi-detached product, whilst over 70% of attached product is owned by investors.
- nearly 70% of Australia’s attached dwellings is occupied by residents under 30 years of age
Monday, June 2, 2008
Brisbane Apartment Prices Still Increasing
"The RP Data/Rismark International end of month indices report released today confirmed that capital growth in the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne has flattened considerably during 2008. ...
RPData's Research Director, Tim Lawless, is confident that the supply side imbalance in the national housing market will see further property value increases over the next five years. “We expect low levels of housing supply to continue placing upwards pressure on housing prices over the long term. However in the short to medium term, demand side constraints are acting to slow the market. Most importantly, the current high inflationary environment is causing a high degree of uncertainty in the market which translates to low buyer and investor confidence. Cashed up buyers now have a large amount of leverage as a result of current market conditions especially now that properties are taking longer to sell and there are fewer buyers,” Mr Lawless said. “The best immediate opportunities can be found in Adelaide, Brisbane and Darwin, not to mention many of Queensland’s regional areas.”
Brisbane is also continuing to show solid growth in property values with overall growth of around 3 percent for houses and units during the first four months of 2008. The value gap between Brisbane and Melbourne is becoming wider as growth in the Melbourne market has slowed considerably. At the start of 2007 house values in the two cities were virtually on par, however the stronger value growth in the Brisbane market has seen Brisbane house values g g now 5 percent or $24,000 higher than Melbourne’s."
March 2008 Median Unit Price Brisbane = $344,247
April 2008 Median Unit Price Brisbane = $346,184
April year to date increase = 3.14%
April 12 month (year on year) increase = 18.12%
Days on Market April Quarter = 16 days
Yield - Brisbane apartments - March Quarter = 4.76%
See Rismark - RP Data report.
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Westin to Block Casino Towers and Festival Towers views
Here is a photograph that I took today from the South side of the Brisbane River.
Below, is a similar photo, showing the planned Westin Empire Square building. As you can see, Festival Towers will be impacted (you can't even see it in the photo below), and many apartments in that building that have river views today may not have river views when the Westin is complete. The Westin Empire Square will be 62 levels and 220 metres high. Also, a number of the "back" apartments in Casino Towers will have their views taken away by the Westin Empire Square.
Devine to Shadow Gardens
Devine's French Quarter project will place shadows over the Botanical Gardens. This is a concern.
This is what the Courier Mail says:
DEVELOPERS building high-rises over Brisbane's Botanic Gardens will no longer have to worry about casting a shadow under new city council laws.
Devine's $1 billion French Quarter precinct, fronting Alice, Margaret and Albert streets, which proposes two towers overshadowing the gardens, will be one of the first beneficiaries of Brisbane City Council's City Centre neighbourhood plan, whereby developers don't have to lodge shadow reports.
While the precinct's design is not yet complete, Lord Mayor Campbell Newman said he would still seek more details about the shadow impact.
"In relation to the Devine proposal, that will be an issue I'll certainly be asking (about)," Cr Newman said.
"With the Vision tower, there was a bit of a shadow issue - it was a small one - and we had to weigh up the positive nature of the development."
Cr Newman said the shadow impact of French Quarter would be put into perspective.
"That doesn't mean if there's a shadow, it won't get up," he said.
Labor, which comprised the majority of the council when the decision was made, said it was complying with the wishes of the Liberal Lord Mayor.
"This was the Lord Mayor's wish - this was ultimately a decision of his," Opposition Planning spokesman Milton Dick said. "At the time, the argument was there was significant shading already in the Botanic Gardens."
Neighbourhood Planning chairwoman Amanda Cooper said the City Centre plan had been through the council twice and was in the process of being implemented.
"It was felt that there was no longer any shadowing that could impact on the Botanic Gardens because of the buildings that actually existed," she said.
Trilogy Update
From Australian Financial Review, 28 May 2008
Mirvac will manage a 192-room hotel in APH Capital Partners' $A800 million tower development in Brisbane. The Trilogy complex at 480 Queen Street, set to be Brisbane's tallest building, will also comprise 30,000 square metres of office space and 109 apartments. It is likely that Mirvac will manage the hotel under its Quay Grand product. The news follows Westin Hotels & Resorts' commitment to manage Metroplex's Empire Square development, also in Brisbane.
Extract from the Brisbane Times:
The $880 million Trilogy Tower will include office space, residential apartments and a five-star hotel, APH Managing Director John Wilson said.
He said the 70-level, 265m-high building would be Brisbane's tallest when it is completed by the middle of 2012.
Mr Wilson said the tower would feature a large, solar-powered lamp at the very top that would be seen from all over the city.
"We've gone to great lengths to try and create something that will be instantly recognisable in Brisbane, like a lot of landmark buildings across the world," he said.
"In fact, we'd like to have Trilogy Tower associated with Australia, ultimately."
The tower will be built on a 3487 square metre site that will combine land formerly occupied by the Australia Red Cross building at 480 Queen Street, and the Dome Nightclub next door.
The nightclub will be demolished when its purchase is finalised next month.
Mr Wilson said "everything" from the concrete rubble to steel and glass from the demolition sites would be recycled.
Mr Wilson said Trilogy Tower's one- and two-bedroom apartments would go on the market "within the next two to three weeks".
Brisbane Building Heights
Vision (proposed) - 259 m
Empire Square (proposed) - 250 m
French Quarter (proposed) - 230 m ??
Aurora - 207 m
Riparian Plaza - 200 m
Skyline - 150 m
Waterfront Place - 162 m
M on Mary - 145 m
Charlotte Towers - 138 m
Festival Towers - 135 m
Felix - 131 m
Admiralty Towers Two - 126 m
Casino Towers - 120 m
Friday, May 23, 2008
French Quarter - New Two Tower Design
From today's Courier Mail
THE designer behind the famous sail-shaped Burj Al Arab luxury hotel in Dubai has won an international competition to design Devine's $1 billion French Quarter precinct in Brisbane.
The design of two towers by Tom Wright of Atkins has been selected from a field of five international architectural firms which were vying for the honour.
Atkins is also the group behind the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Dubai.
Devine managing director David Devine said yesterday now that the concept for the building had been selected planning work would start with an eye to lodging a development application in the next couple of months.
The towers will form the centrepiece of Devine's $1 billion French Quarter, a 6-star hotel and residential development.
It is to built on sites fronting Albert, Margaret and Alice streets which Devine amalgamated throughout last year. Once complete it will feature two towers housing a 6-star hotel, residential apartments, retail and commercial space.
This will all be linked by a Parisian-style cafe and walkway.
Apartments in the development will be priced from $1.5 million. Prices will reach $15 million – the most expensive apartments ever to be marketed in Brisbane.
"This project will be a true coming of age for Brisbane," Mr Devine said.
Expressions of interest for an international operator to run the hotel component of the development is down to a short list with the successful operator expected to be announced soon.
Mr Devine said none of those on the shortlist were currently operating in Brisbane.
It is also the first project by Atkins in Australia.
Mr Wright said he hoped to bring a new level of luxury and sophistication to the Brisbane skyline with the design.
Mr Wright and his team will now be commissioned to work with Devine's local design firm ML Design to develop the final plans before a development application is lodged.
It is hoped construction will start in 2009 and be finished in 2012.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
Brisbane Project Sales - First Quarter 2008
Of these six buildings, there were only 20 reported sales in the first quarter 2008.
Aurora - 2 sold, none remaining for sale
Evolution - 3 sold, 23 available for sale
Pinnacle - 1 sold, 12 available for sale
Skyline - 2 sold, 16 available for sale
The Macrossan - 1 sold, 13 available for sale
Vision - 11 sold, more than 100 available for sale
Empire Square - about 100 available for sale
Trilogy - 192 hotel rooms and 109 Skyhomes available for sale
Totals - 20 sold, about 592 available for sale.
By way of reference, there are just under 7000 completed apartments in the Brisbane CBD. In 2007, there were 1229 apartment sales in the Brisbane CBD.
Example Rents in Brisbane City
1 bed, no car - M on Mary - $500 per week
2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Evolution - $900 per week
2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Skyline - $1,300 per week
3 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Skyline - $900 per week
3 bed, 2 bath, 3 cars - Riparian - $2200 per week
Other Buildings - Furnished
2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Admiralty Towers - $680 per week
2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Saville South Bank - $740 per week
New Buildings - Unfurnished
2 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - Evolution - $650 per week
2 bed, 2 bath, no car - Aurora - $660 per week
3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car - Skyline - $1500 per week
3 bed, 2 bath, 3 car - Riparian - $1850 per week
Other Buildings - Unfurnished
2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - Admiralty Two - $580 per week
2 bed, 3 bath, 1 car - Metro 21 - $575 per week
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Admiralty One - New Listings
Two bedrooms, for sale at $900,000
Two bedrooms, for sale at $850,000
Three bedrooms, for sale at $2,500,000
Grey Street Redevelopment
The street scape at Grey Street at South Bank will greatly improved with the proposed development of Stage Two of the Brisbane Convention Centre. The development will be over the rail line, and will front Grey Street, next to Rydges Hotel. It will improve the street when walking from the Cultural Centre and Museums along Grey Street to the Saville Hotel area.
See South Bank Newsletter.