Phantom Apartments

It is hard to tell exactly how many new apartments are for sale in Brisbane.  A number of developers have withdrawn completed apartments from the market (and either locked them up, or put tenants in.)  So I suspect that there is more stock available for sale than the figures that are commonly published actually show.

Gold Coast Settlements Off the Plan

The Hilton and Soul (Sea Temple) apartment complexes at Surfers Paradise on the Gold Coast have many off the plan apartment sales that are to settle now.  It seems that settlements are taking a long time, and that about 25% of the people who signed contracts are unable or unwilling to settle.  See The Australian.

Up or Down or Flat?

According to Chris Joye, Australian housing prices are unlikely to crash, but will more likely tread water.

"While the Aussie share market is still nearly 40% below its 2007 peaks, Australian house prices are about 10.3% above their pre-GFC highs. Notwithstanding this, we have had effectively no house price growth in nearly one and a half years while household disposable incomes have, according to the ABS, raced ahead at an 7% to 8% per annum rate.

The next major marker will be the August house price index data. This will be a crucial guide to whether Australia's housing market is experiencing an accelerating decline, as folks like the perennial doomsayer Steve Keen would have us believe."

See note by Chris Joye

Michael Yardney reckons property prices are likely to increase, in the next decade!

Small One Bedroom Apartments

"Many people reject the idea of buying a one-bedroom apartment in the belief they are too small and boxy and might be hard to resell.  If you're in this group of sceptics, it's time to change your thinking.  Shrinking household sizes, a fast-growing population and Australia's housing shortage point to a rolled-gold future for well-located one-bedroom units."

Source: Domain

Meriton Soleil to operate as hotel

Tonight is the official opening of Meriton's Soleil apartment building in Brisbane.  It is going to be run as a hotel, with short stay guests, not as a residential apartment building.  It is aimed at both business travellers and holiday makers. I feel sorry for people who purchased apartments here to live in full time.  The hotel opens next week.

"Meriton Serviced Apartments will launch our in-demand and much anticipated hotel-style accommodation in Brisbane City in September 2011. Meriton Apartments two high-rise developments will change the Brisbane skyline and our serviced apartments will bring a fresh and much needed option to the city for both business and leisure travelers."
See Meriton website

New Flood Maps

The Queensland Government Reconstruction Authority has recently published new interactive flood maps.  See www.qldreconstruction.org.au/maps

However, it seems that Brisbane is yet to be fully mapped.  There are some high level maps available, e.g. here and here, but from my experience in the floods, these maps show properties as flooded that did not flood.

Brisbane Investment Apartment

Don't forget to read, Investing in Brisbane Apartments - A Guide for Successful Investing, recently published and available at Amazon for immediate download delivery.

Milton

Milton has recorded the highest growth in median apartment prices of the 21 suburbs in Brisbane’s inner city, outstripping some of the city’s most prestigious areas, new research shows.

Resolution Research found apartment prices in Milton had recorded the highest median price growth in the inner city precinct over both the past decade and the last 12 month research period from 2009 to 2010.  Milton posted a median price increase of 12.3 per cent per annum over the last 10 years, with apartment prices jumping from $171,000 in 2001 to $544,000 in December 2010. 

It trumped the next best performers of East Brisbane at 11.8 per cent and Dutton Park at 10.5 per cent, and the average across the inner city precinct of 7.3 per cent.

Milton also came out on top for price growth between 2009 and 2010, with a 22.5 per cent median increase during that time, ahead of Herston at 20.8 per cent and Hamilton at 20.5 per cent, and well ahead of the average inner city growth of 7.7 per cent.

Resolution director Diana Howes said properties in the suburb were expected to continue to perform strongly, with very limited new supply on the horizon.  “The inner west, which includes Milton, is one of the most undersupplied markets in inner Brisbane,” she said.

“Currently, The Milton is the only high-density residential apartment project on the market in the inner west, and that is not likely to change, based on current approvals, until at least 2013 to 2015.

“At the same time, demand from those wanting to live in this area is strong, particularly renters looking to take advantage of the convenience of its near-CBD location and lifestyle amenities.

“Traditionally, demand for inner city apartment living has predominantly come from professional couples, those without children and lone person households, but we are increasingly seeing more young families wanting this style of home.”

Ms Howes said inner city suburbs like Milton were sought after because of their combination of proximity to the CBD, public transport and amenities like restaurants, cafes, shops and entertainment.

“Brisbane’s apartment market is once again the most affordable capital city on the east coast, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney,” said Ms Howes.  “This  is not only making Brisbane a popular choice with southern buyers looking for their next investment property, but is likely to stimulate interstate migration, particularly on the back of the vast employment opportunities on offer across Queensland.

New Development - Centrus One

A new off the plan development, Centrus One, has recently launched.  It is located in Eight Mile Plains.

Floor plan grid here, showing that 3 out of 38 apartments have sold.

One bedrooms priced from $315,000.  Two bedrooms from $385,000.  Three bedrooms from $445,000.

These prices seem relatively reasonable, when compared with suburban six pack developments.

I looked at the floor plans for a 1 bedroom plus study alcove.  The smaller one bed (54 sqm internal plus 13 sqm balcony) was $325,000.  A larger one bed with a bigger study area (64 sqm plus 13 sqm, which is a good size) was $335,000.

A two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 74 sqm internal with 14 sqm balcony.  It was a "floor through" apartment, with the living room at the front and two bedrooms at the rear.  Some of the floor area was taken up with hallways.  This was $395,000 or $402,000, for example, depending on the level.

A larger two bedroom, two bathroom apartment was 77 sqm plus 13 sqm balcony for $417,000.  Again, a floor through apartment, with the bedrooms separated from the living area.  This appears to be the most popular of the sold apartments.

Apartments Becoming More Popular

Across the country there is generally a wide gap between the price of house and a unit, a factor that is likely to become increasingly attractive to first home buyers and other budget conscious property buyers.

Housing affordability remains a topical issue across most housing markets around Australia and many prospective home buyers are looking to minimise their debt by either purchasing a house in the outer fringes of the city or choosing an apartment located closer to the city.  Both options have their pros and cons, however units are becoming an increasingly popular option, particularly amongst younger market segments like Gen Y’s and DINKS who like to live close to where they work and play.

Across the other large capital cities (Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) the price gap between the median house and unit price is much less at around 18%. In dollar value terms that still represents a sizeable price gap; generally around a $70,000 difference and slightly more than $60,000 in Adelaide. Going forward we are likely to see apartments continue to garner a larger share of the market.

Twenty years ago apartments comprised only about 25% of all sales. More recently the proportion of apartment sales peaked at 36% in mid 2009. The fall away since that time is most likely attributable to both a slow down in investor and first home buyer purchases as well as ‘off the plan’ sales yet to settle which do not appear in the figures.

Extract From RP Data Premium Property Pulse 

Currently in Brisbane, apartment sales are 27% of all sales.

Settlements Start At Soul

ANYONE who thinks Soul is heading for receivership because buyers won't settle will be "sadly disillusioned", veteran developer Graeme Juniper says.
The $850 million Surfers Paradise project has been 11 years in the making and Mr Juniper plans to see it through to the end.
"We have the complete support of our financiers and we are with this journey all the way through," the co-managing director of Juniper Group said.  "We will be delivering this building and Juniper will be there -- it's that simple."
Settlements of the first stage of the apartment project began on Tuesday, a process expected to take months to complete.

The family-owned Juniper Group has contracts on 173 apartments in the first stage, but Mr Juniper could not disclose how many had settled.

He confirmed Juniper Group was still finding buyers despite the dire Gold Coast apartment market and that he had secured an unconditional 30-day contract for an apartment yesterday.

See Gold Coast Bulliten

I am not sure why settlement will take months.  Usually, all settlements (even for a large building) are done in less than a week.

NAB Blackists 127 Queensland developments

According to The Age, the NAB Bank has blacklisted 127 Queensland developments, and will not lend money in relation to them (or at least, will take extra special care before doing so).  Most of the properties on the list are serviced apartments, resorts or student accommodation. The list also includes inner-city apartments.

The list indicated the unnamed bank barred financing for all developments associated with the federal government's National Rental Affordability Scheme, an initiative designed to boost housing for low-income earners around the country.

It has been reported that most other banks have also refused to finance investors or buyers for NRAS properties, apart from St George, which accepts borrowers for one project in Queensland.

It has long been known that lenders often decline to provide finance for buyers of apartment buildings once they reach pre-set exposure limits, commonly when 15% to 25% of the total number of apartments have already been financed by the lender."

See Property Observer and The Age

Brisbane House Rents

The median weekly asking rent for houses in Brisbane, according to RP Data, is $398 per week.  The indicative gross rental yield for Brisbane houses is 4.7%.  This is for houses, not apartments.

Brisbane Property Rebound Unlikely Until January

"January may mark a turnaround in Brisbane's flagging property market, but there is no sign of conditions improving before then, according to leading economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel.

The forecast reflects a sluggish start to the spring property season, as households are wary of taking on more debt and potential home buyers hold out for interest rate cuts."

Source: Brisbane Times

Gold Coast High Rise

The headline of an article on page 21 of the Weekend Australian Financial Review this weekend is "Gold Coast high rise gets a nose bleed."

The article reports that more than $1 billion of apartments purchased at the top of the market are due to settle soon in The Oracle and Juniper's Soul developments.

Lawyers are apparently circling to try to get buyers out of contracts.  For example, it is said that Nyst Lawyers believe buyers can get out of their Soul contracts because the Soul development is now being managed by Mirvac under the Sea Temple brand.  What a crazy argument.  The buyers want to get out of the contracts because the contract price that they promised to pay is now too much.  The buyers took a risk, and lost out.  You have to be very careful when buying off the plan.

The AFR reports that prices in Soul are down about 17%, based on one resale of a 23rd floor three bedroom apartment, 161 sqm, that sold off the plan for $1.8 million and resold in February this year for $1.5 million.

Infinity

According to an advertorial in this Saturday's Courier Mail, Meriton's Infinity apartment building has about 200 residential apartments remaining for sale, out of a total of 548 apartments.  That sounds too good to be true to me.  One bedrooms are priced from $380,000; two bedrooms from $550,000; three bedrooms from $949,000.   According to the newspaper, many buyers are from Sydney and China.  Meriton staff are currently attending property seminars in China to promote this building.

Completion is expected in late 2013 or early 2014.  Construction is underway, with the seven level underground carpark complete, and work up to level 1 above ground.

Fish Lane Apartments

Launching this month is a new apartment development in South Brisbane, Fish Lane Apartments.

Located on Melbourne Street, this development will have 48 apartments.  One bedroom apartments are priced from $360,000.  Two bedroom apartments are priced from $560,000.  There will be only 5 apartments per floor.  The building is 9 stories high.

New Book: Investing in Brisbane Apartments

This is a plug for a new book published this week, Investing in Brisbane Apartments - A Guide for Successful Investing.

Currently, this book is available only via the Amazon Kindle store. If you don't have a Kindle, then you can download for free Kindle software apps for an iPad, iPhone, Mac or PC. If you can read this blog, then you can use Kindle software to read this new book. Click on the following link for the software to read this book:

Kindle Reading Apps

The Chapters include:

• Apartments as Investments
• Buying Decisions
• Off the plan apartments
• Renting Your Apartment
• Foreign Investors
• Legal Structures for Apartments

Investing in Brisbane Apartments - A Guide for Successful Investing

REIQ Brisbane Apartment Report

Queensland’s unit and townhouse market shrugged off this year’s natural disasters and the current economic conservatism to record mostly positive results over the June quarter, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ June quarter median unit and townhouse report found the preliminary number of sales rebounded robustly across most of the State with median prices also holding firm.

REIQ managing director Dan Molloy said unit and townhouse sales were up about eight per cent compared to the March quarter courtesy of increased first home buyer and investor demand particularly.

For the Brisbane downtown area, the medium price for the June 2011 quarter was $448,000. This was up 0.1% on the previous quarter. The medium price for the 12 months to June 2011 was $475,000, up 6% on the 12 months to June 2010 (which was $448,000.)

Inner Brisbane Does Best

"Of all the capital cities, house values in Brisbane recorded the largest declines over the 12 months to June, falling by -6.9%. As the accompanying table shows, not one region of Brisbane has recorded positive growth in house values over the past 12 months. The magnitude of value falls has varied from a -0.1% fall in Inner Brisbane to a -13.9% fall in values within Beaudesert Shire Part A which comprises the southern suburbs of the Logan council region."

Source: RP Data Newsletter.

More details in Brisbane Times article, which concludes:

"“The subdued capital growth across the detached house market compared with units is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns as well home buyers seeking more affordable alternatives such as units over houses,” he said.

Inner Brisbane Vacancy Rates Under Pressure

Vacancy rates in Inner Brisbane are under pressure, as population increases and a shortage of new supply sees available properties dwindle, says leading property researcher Michael Matusik. Mr Matusik, director of Matusik Property Insights, said the tight vacancy rates could be attributed to a relative lack of new development in inner Brisbane, which is experiencing a resurgence in its popularity with new residents. “Inner Brisbane is attracting an average of around 5,000 new permanent residents per annum, and that is expected to continue over the next decade, whereas in the 1990s it was losing permanent residents,” he said. “The change can be credited to a shift in demographics, with an increase in lone person households and couples without children in the precinct, who are looking for a lifestyle of convenience close to amenities and transport to the CBD.”

Inner Brisbane suburbs Milton, Paddington and Rosalie are leading the charge, with figures from the Residential Tenancies Authority showing rent in these areas have risen by about 5.6 per cent over the past 24 months.

Mr Matusik said Milton was a prime example, where vacancy rates had plunged to just 0.7 per cent, with a vacancy rate under 3 per cent considered to be undersupplied. He said about two-thirds, or 62 per cent, of households in Milton were renting, which was representative of other inner city precincts. Mr Matusik said dwindling vacancy rates were not expected to improve in the short term, with the undersupply of new stock set to continue.

“For example, Milton has recorded the second highest population growth in Inner Brisbane at 4.4 per cent per annum over the past five years, just behind Kelvin Grove, which has led to its extremely low vacancy rate,” Mr Matusik said. “It is part of the Inner West precinct, which is one of the most undersupplied markets in Brisbane.

“Just 10 per cent of the current supply of new apartments for sale in Inner Brisbane are located in the Inner West, with FKP’s The Milton the only project currently selling off the plan.”

Sad news - 2 balcony deaths

This weekend was Riverfire, and sadly, two people died in separate incidents, both due to falls from apartment balconies. A young man fell from Pradella's Allegro apartments at South Brisbane. Another man fell from River Plaza, in Dock Street, South Brisbane.

Full details in this story.

Soul to be branded as Sea Temple

The Juniper Soul building on the Gold Coast will be managed by Mirvac under the Sea Temple brand. With settlements due very soon, it will be interesting to see how many actually settle. Or will we have another Oracle problem? There are already dark shadows and issues about soul food. Even the development debt is for sale.

Sunshine Coast Not Investor Friendly

Property valuers Herron Todd White report that the Sunshine Coast is not investor friendly. High taxation, and no representation. Not a good long term situation.

"Holiday units are typically returning a gross yield in the vicinity of 7% to 7.5% however after management fees etc, the net yield would be in the vicinity of 5%.

One of the drawbacks of owning investment property on the coast continues to be the additional levies that are being charged by the Sunshine Coast Regional Council. these are charged on all non-owner occupied properties, even when they are holiday homes which are not rented. this leaves a sour taste in the mouths of investors, most of whom are not locals who don’t have the opportunity to cast a protest vote."

Source: HTW Report

HTW Market Update

If you purchase a flooded property, you may find yourself paying 5% to 20% discount on what similar but non flooded properties are selling for in the same suburb and without a dramatic discount in rent. ...

That said, there are some suburbs that were tarnished by the flood that offer excellent value for non-flooded stock due to the overall lack of buyer confidence. For example, st Lucia has a ready source of student renters, is close to the CbD and enjoys good local services, but its riverfront areas copped a hiding in January. As a result, the dry property (and there is plenty) has also had a downturn. not too long ago, one of our valuers had a look at a two- bedroom, three-level townhouse that sold for $400,000 and will easily see $430 per week in rent. A 5.5% gross return in this location is a very nice earner indeed. ...

General market conditions across the Gold Coast are very tight. only those properties where the vendor is willing to meet the market are selling. there is generally an oversupply of similar properties listed for sale. Feedback from locals within the property industry indicate that the market may not yet have bottomed out which is concerning potential buyers. Our opinion is that we are bumping along the bottom similar to the late 1990’s and that properties will sell within a wider value range depending on the circumstances of the vendor.<
Source: HTW Report

Growth Slows in last 5 years

"Over the past ten years capital city home values have increased at an average annual rate of 6.8%, however it has been a tale of two distinct five year periods: the boom times during the first part of the decade and more subdued growth recently. ...

The recent superior performance of units as opposed to houses continues today and is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns. In particular, first home buyers and young professionals are likely to be much more attracted to an inner city unit rather than a house 20 plus kilometres from the city centre, especially if they work centrally and they also work long hours.

Overall the data highlights the impact of the property 2001-2004 ‘property boom’ which has well and truly lifted the annual growth rates across the first half of the decade. The two recent growth phases (ie 2007 calendar year and 2009/2010) were much more sublime compared to the meteoric rate of growth early in the new century. Looking to the future, with housing credit growth constrained and affordability a barrier to market entry, property values are likely to grow at a slower pace and the likelihood of large spikes in value growth over a 12-24 month period as witnessed at times during the past decade is less likely. Basically, property value growth fundamentals are largely returning to normal conditions after being abnormal for much of the last decade. "

Source: RP Data

Property collapse talk is taken out of context

"RPData’s index suggests that maybe the worst is behind us, with the monthly and quarterly results starting to trend upwards. This recovery, however, is likely to be slower than those in the past, as many markets are now priced over $500,000, which presents an affordability barrier to many households and especially investors and first home buyers. It will take some time before wages grow enough to start pushing dwelling prices."

Source: Matusik

RP Data Home Value Index Released Today

Based on approximately 178,000 home sales over the year to July, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index recorded a seasonally-adjusted fall of -0.6 per cent in capital city home values over the month of July (-0.9 per cent in raw terms).

Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent. According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, this national result conceals wide divergences across the individual cities.

Over the 12 months to July 2011, Australian capital city home values are off -2.9 per cent. Mr Lawless said that it looks like a multi-speed housing market: Brisbane (-6.6 per cent), Perth (-6.3 per cent), and Melbourne (-4.3 per cent) have all experienced significant declines over the last year, whereas the 35 per cent of Australia's capital city population that lives in Canberra (+1.9 per cent) and Sydney (+0.5 per cent) had realised capital gains.

"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase," Mr Joye said.

Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data.

Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft.

Extracted from Press Release

From RP Data

"Australians are choosing to own their homes for longer with the average time frame between house sales increasing from 6.8 years 10 years ago to 8.6 years in 2011. [For Brisbane apartments, the average hold period is 6.8 years, which is an increase of 7 months over the past ten years.]

The RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results for July 2011 will be released on Wednesday next week. We anticipate that the results aren’t likely to show much deviation from the past month to month trend; the market is flat to falling, Sydney is the best performer while Brisbane and Perth are the laggards. In recent months the rate of value decline has been slowing with a fall of just -0.2% during June across the combined capital cities. We expect fairly similar conditions when the July results are released next week. Certainly with low levels of consumer confidence we would not expect an improvement in sales volumes or return to value growth so long as consumers continue to act in a cautious nature.

---

The total number of properties listed for sale remains at elevated levels, increasing by 4.3% over the week nationally and by 5.4% across the combined capital cities. Total listings remain at elevated levels, 33.1% higher than they were last year nationally and 32.0% higher across the capital cities. It will be interesting to see what happens with listings in the coming week, given the weak market conditions and inflated listing volumes an increase coming in to spring would not be beneficial for the market."

House Price Crash

This is a good article on property investment, and points out some of the risks of off-the-plan purchases and dealing with developers.

House Price Crash