Brisbane real estate agents say "sell now!"

I receive many newsletters and emails from real estate agents in Brisbane, especially those who specialise in Brisbane apartment resales.  All are advising that now is the time to sell, not the time to buy.  Some examples:

Position Property, Brad Munro:, Autumn 2016 newsletter

• "There is no denying that there are concerns over just how many apartments are being built across Brisbane."
• "The concern I have is that many of these developments are being sold anywhere from 80% to 100% to inventors.  Many of these buildings have 200-300 or more apartments -- there needs to be a lot of tenants to fill them all."
• "Rental prices will decrease which then affects the investment return for the investor.  Even now, with only a limited number of these developments being finished, the rental prices are down from what the investor was promised.  I believe there is more pain to come."
• "There are fewer buyers in the market."
• "I am really concerned as to what the next 3 years has in store."
• "I have no doubt that selling in the next 6 months is going to achieve a better result than waiting until next year."

Tessa Residential CBD Market Overview

• "We anticipate a stable and consistent market place in 2016..."
• Oversupply "is a reality throughout suburbs such as Newstead, Bowen Hills, South Brisbane and West End and as a result is having an impact on the rental market with rents across the City starting to soften."
• "We believe 2016 will represent the optimum time for sellers who are considering cashing in on the improved market, which has continued to grow since June 2013."

So sell now if you are thinking of selling in the next 3 years, but don't buy now -- wait till next year!

Brisbane apartment oversupply?

Will there be an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane?  In certain geographic areas, and for certain styles of apartments, I think that the answer will be yes.  Some clear reasons for oversupply include:

• extremely high level of construction of high rise apartments in some areas, many with a large number of small apartments
• low population growth
• apartments targeted at investors, not owner occupiers, so a more limited market segment of buyers and renters
• apartments being constructed in second and third tier areas.

However, I don't think that all the apartments currently "in progress" will actually be built.  This includes apartment projects that have good pre-sales and where "construction has started".  This is because:

• some developers are unable to obtain the level of finance needed to commence the project
• construction costs have increased dramatically, especially for union built projects, and so the project is no longer viable, even if the project is sold out
• simply because the site has been cleared, and some work has started, does not mean the that project is underway -- it may never be built.
• the number and percentage of presales in a development is often overstated by the developer in advertising and market surveys, and so the developer will not in fact be able to obtain finance at all.

So I think that the level of oversupply may be overstated.  There will still be oversupply, just not as bad as some people are predicting.

There are other risks in the high-rise apartment market:

• off-the-plan buyers may have trouble settling, because valuations may be lower than contract price, because banks are not lending to offshore buyers, and because banks are requiring a higher cash contribution.
• rents are likely to fall, which means that valuations will fall
• some projects are overpriced, and it is likely that after settlement sales prices will be less than  the contract price
• some constructions companies are in financial difficulties, and so are cutting corners -- the end product many be different, and lower quality, to what is expected by the buyer
• many buildings are being built close to other buildings, impacting light, view and ventilation
• foreign buyers may evaporate.

The question in my mind is whether this will impact the high quality buildings in good locations that have large apartments with good aspect?

HTW view on Brisbane apartment market

There has been a lot of talk about our inner city unit market with an oversupply situation that’s graduated from 'looming' to 'inevitable'. This sector is a huge concern. There are still heaps of projects that are yet to come online or are in the planning phase. They are also predominantly investor driven and this could be a recipe for a lot of heartache – particularly as a large percentage of buyers are interstate and international investors. Add to this the tighter restrictions on lending to foreign investors and you can see where it might all be heading. As we’ve been saying for some time – in terms of inner city units, the best per formers are, and will continue to be, those projects designed with owner-occupiers in mind.

If you’re wondering how tenant demand is tracking, we can con rm current data shows vacancy rates for houses at 2.5% and units at 3.2% (unit vacancy increased by 0.3% year-on-year). The combined  vacancy rate for all property types is 2.7%. The general rule is any result below 2% demonstrates an under supply of rentals, 2% to 3% seems balance, and over 3% represents oversupply. From the numbers above, it’s easy to recognise where the weak sector is in the market.

See June Month in Review

Glut of one bedroom apartments?

Many of the new apartment buildings have a large number of small one bedroom apartments, that have been sold to investors.  These investors are hoping to rent them.  In the past, a one bedroom apartment gives a good rental return relative to purchase price.

However, at present, there is a problem.  There are too many one bedroom apartments.  Owner-occupiers prefer two bedroom  (or larger) apartments or houses.  There is less demand for short term rentals at present, where a one bedroom apartment was a good alternative to a hotel room.  And most young Brisbane renters prefer to share and rent large apartments or houses.

Some one bedrooms are sold without a car park, making them even less attractive.  In my view, a one bed with no car that is 60sqm or less in size is worth about $310,000.

If rents go down, which they will, then capital values will fall.

There may be one exception here.  Some of the riverfront older apartments, which have larger apartments (e.g. a one bedroom over 70sqm) seem to be holding up well.  See for example this apartment and this apartment in Admiralty Towers

Recent Apartment Sales in Brisbane 4000

Here are some recent sales (all early 2016) with actual sales prices of apartments in Brisbane Postcode 4000.  These are all B and C quality buildings, and so expect to pay more for A quality:

• Skyline, Apt 91, 30 Macrossan Street, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1 car - $747,000
• Skyline, Apt 261, 30 Macrossan Street, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 cars - $800,000
• Skyline, Apt 41, 30 Macrossan Street, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1 car - $731,500
• Festival Towers, Apt 3605, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $529,000
• Festival Towers, Apt 4006, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $570,000
• Festival Towers, Apt 1805, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $342,500
• Festival Towers, Apt 2503, 2 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - $499,000
• Charlotte Towers, Apt 508, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $350,000
• Charlotte Towers, Apt 2902, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $540,000
• M on Mary, Apt 3204, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $356,000
• M on Mary, Apt 607, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $360,000
• M on Mary, Apt 2609, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $327,000
• Felix, Apt 303, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $600,000
• Meriton Herschel St (Infinity), 2 bed, 2 bath, no car - $580,000
• Meriton Soleil - 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $575,000
• Vue, 92 Quay St, Apt 2301, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $460,000
• Vue, 92 Quay St, Apt 2602, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $437,500

Has the Brisbane new apartment crash started?

On 10 March, the AFR reported that there will be a "very messy end" to the apartment boom.  See AFR story here.  It says:

""In Melbourne the oversupply will be significant, in Brisbane it will be worse. It is an accident waiting to happen," said BIS-Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor at the group's six-monthly Building Forecasting Conference."

Has the end already started?

Let's look at a recent apartment project in Brisbane, that recently completed -- The Milton at 55 Railway Terrace, Milton.  Some examples of the disaster there:

• Apartment 1302 is listed for sale for 10% below in the initial price, at $365,000.  For a one bedroom apartment, looking West, which has a 55 sqm internal floor space, and a main bedroom that is only 3m by 3m, and no car space, $365,000 is expensive.  Rent is estimated by the selling agent to be $450 to $460 per week unfurnished, which seems to be optimistic.
• Apartment 2901 - one bedroom, is not even listed at a price -- "make an offer"
• Apartment 2709, which is four bedrooms, if it sells at all, will sell for a huge amount less than the current owner has paid
• Apartment 2005 is listed at $1.1M, which is very high for a 3 bedroom apartment in Brisbane that is only 123 sqm -- you can buy luxury two bedroom apartments elsewhere that are this size and at a lower price, and it only has a narrow tandem carpark
• Apartment 2311, is not listed with a price
• Apt 2609 is two bedrooms, "bring me offers"
• Apartment 3008, a top floor two bedroom, 91 sqm in total, is listed unpriced
• Apartment 3009, also a top floor two bedroom, is listed for $849,000 -- are they dreaming?
• Apartment 2511, 2 bedrooms, listed at $659,000 is said to be under offer
• Apartment 2007, 1 bedroom, is listed at $490,000
• Apt 502, 2 bedroom, 74 sqm internal, is listed at $499,000
• The list goes on.

The onsite agents, Mint Residential, have a large number of apartments for rent.  And so do offsite agents.  The following are rent ranges, depending on floor, car parking etc:

• 3 bedrooms, from $650 per week to $800 per week
• 2 bedrooms, from $570 per week to $720 per week
• 1 bedrooms, from $370 per week to $490 per week
• A fully furnished two bedroom is listed at $640 per week
• Some apartments have 4 weeks free rent, which (for example) in effect reduces the rent per week of a $500 a week apartment to $460 a week over a yearly lease.

The Milton won my award for the wildest advertising claims of 2010.  See this prior post.  In that post, I said:  "They have a sheet of paper showing investment returns for a 2 bed, 1 bath apartment listed at $650,000. The prediction is that this apartment will be worth $807,500 on completion of the project in 2013, and will be worth over $1M by 2016. The predicted rent is over $720 a week in 2013."

As can be seen from the above, this was in fact wildly inaccurate.  

The Milton has a host of problems, not simply that it was sold for prices that are way above market price.  The development is on a train line, with half the apartments looking west and close to a brewery.  The river views are distant, and will be blocked by construction of apartments in front.  Body corporate for a 2 bedroom is about $4,800 a year.  See comments in prior posts.  It is very dangerous buying off the plan in Brisbane.

Compare the above to a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1 car apartment, 106 sqm, with direct river views, for $700,000.

If The Milton is representative, then we are in for a very rough ride.