More on the flood and property prices

The SMH had this story:

Floods Tipped to Hit House Prices

"House prices in Queensland are likely to sink as the financial effects of state's devastating floods strain household budgets and dent banks’ willingness to lend, a ratings agency has warned. ...

LJ Hooker Indooroopilly principal real estate agent Scott Gemmell said it could be 10 to 15 years before some flooded suburbs regain their popularity. ‘‘In the short period it probably scares me a little; what the flood will do to house prices,’’ he said. ‘‘In some cases, houses will be unsellable."

He said he expected a surge in property for sale listings later this month. Mr Gemmell said his office had been inundated with rental inquiries and had compiled a priority list for those affected. ..."

And a similar story: Queensland Rents to Soar, House Prices to Plummet

"... The news is also bad for tenants, with rents expected to soar in line with the surge in demand from displaced residents needing temporary homes. ..."

But, according to another story, landlords will go bankrupt: "Landlords across Queensland are likely to go bankrupt in the next few months, an industry expert has warned."

How will the flood impact property prices in Brisbane?

See this story from Bloomberg. Some extracts:

Property sales will slow significantly over the next month as residents focus on assessing damage and put purchase decisions on hold, said Rod Cornish, Sydney-based head of property research at Macquarie Group Ltd. Buyers are also likely to turn more selective about where they buy properties, avoiding low-lying areas that have been particularly hard hit, he said.

The property market in Brisbane will take some time to rebalance prices, said Gerard Baden, principal at a Century21 Australia real estate franchise in West End, a southwestern suburb of Brisbane that’s bounded by the river on three sides.

“If someone’s selling, what the neighbors’ house sold for last month wouldn’t matter,” Baden said. “And we’ll have a two-speed market. Those properties affected by water, and those that aren’t.”

Brisbane-based Ray White Group has seen “hundreds” of tenants evacuated from properties it manages in the state, said Tony Warland, Queensland chief executive officer for the group.

The Australia also has a story. Some extracts:

The floods are expected to further slash property prices in the southeast, with more than 26,000 homes in Brisbane damaged and the rebuilding process expected to take months. SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the residential market in the state's capital was already weak and would be damaged by the worst floods in nearly three decades.

Most property experts said yesterday that it was too early to estimate the exact effect on prices, but all agreed there would be a negative impact on values.

"The immediate impact is going to be that houses which have been impacted directly by the floods that require repairs will likely be taken off the market," Mr Christopher said.

"The floods are going to remind buyers of the risks of buying near the floodplains. There is the risk some of the most prestige areas are going to take a hit because buyers are aware of the risks now of buying there."

Some of the most affluent suburbs in Brisbane -- New Farm, West End, St Lucia, Indooroopilly, Graceville and Chelmer -- have been the most severely affected by the floodwaters. Residex managing director John Edwards said the higher-priced areas would suffer a greater price hit compared with flooded suburbs in Brisbane's outer west and close to Ipswich.

"I think we are going to find that the big pricing adjustments will be the higher-cost areas that are along the river's edge," he said.

Property consultant Michael Matusik agreed in this story that the prestige riverfront market would recover fairly quickly, but said the markets most affected would be low-lying suburbs close to the river that were flooded.

HiDef Aerial Photos of Brisbane 2011 Floods

NearMaps took hidef aerial photographs ("photomaps") of the 2011 Brisbane floods on 13 January 2011. Some examples:

• Tennyson Reach
• Parklands Sherwood
• Regatta area
• Encore and Fresh apartments at Toowong
• Macquarie Street, St Lucia
• Waters Edge and Flow
• SL8, Tempo and LeftBank
• Vue
• SouthBank
• Admiralty precinct

Brisbane Floods

With the flood water going down, the clean up is starting. Many Brisbane apartment buildings were impacted by the floods -- basement carparks full of water and mud; no electricity; residents evacuated.

Some of the buildings that have significant water in their basements include:

• Admiralty Towers
• Admiralty Two
• Admiralty Quays "we only had minor flooding in the lower level of the basement (about 50cm deep)"
• Riverplace
• Riparian (access tunnel to carparks - carparks are above ground level)
• Felix
• 212 Margaret
• Festival Towers
• River City
• Vue at Milton
• Water's Edge
• Flow
• SL8
• Parklands Sherwood
• Fresh Toowong
• Encore Toowong
• Arbour on Grey at South Bank
• Tennyson Reach
• Most apartments on the river at St Lucia
• the list goes on

Pradella writes about Parklands at Sherwood: "Sadly this site has experienced quite a lot of damage. The Outlook – which are the entertainment facilities has been completely submerged by water. The car park under Jacaranda and Brookline is also completely submerged. Whilst floodwaters did not reach the interior of the apartment buildings, it did however breach a number of houses and townhouses. The entire complex was evacuated late on Wednesday afternoon. Power has been cut and access to the property restricted."

and about Waters Edge:

"There has been significant damage to the pool and the grounds however the water from the river has NOT entered the building. The car park under the building has flooded, and all residents evacuated. Power has been cut."

Admiralty Towers has it status (current evacuated) on its website.

I am amazed that the Council allows buildings to be built with basements that flood, forcing loss of power and residents to be evacuated. See also this article.

I am not sure how the floods will impact property prices in Queensland. After the 1974 floods, the prices of impacted houses decreased for a period. There will be a shortage of rental accommodation, as many people are looking for places to live. Foreign press is reporting on its nationals being evacuated -- see for example, this article from Singapore and Malaysia -- and QUT and UQ were flooded, which will not be good news for those trying to attract foreign students to Brisbane.

On the positive side, it could have been much worse. Only one person died in Brisbane, and the flood levels were lower than initially expected.

Photo

Nice photo of Brisbane skyline in the fog here:

Photo

Values Down, Rents Up?

This is an extract from an article from a News Corp paper, written by a researcher at RP Data:

"QUEENSLAND'S residential property market is in the doldrums and faces a grim 2011, with house prices likely to grow so little this year they won't keep up with inflation. Despite this fall in real terms, interest-rate rises will force many first-home buyers out of the market.

From the end of 2007 to October last year, Brisbane home values increased according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index by a total of 3.8 per cent. In the period December 2007 to September 2010, the Australian Bureau of Statistics' consumer price index showed that prices (or inflation) had increased by a total of 8 per cent.

As a result of home values growing at a slower rate than inflation, in real terms, property values have fallen by 4.2 per cent since the end of the city's last strong value growth period in 2007. In the next 12 months, I expect that property values will be pretty much flat suggesting that once again in real terms Brisbane homes will record a fall.

Although this might seem like great news for those looking to enter into home ownership, in reality interest rates are at much higher levels than they have been in recent times. The result will be that the cost of servicing the debt on a mortgage is now much higher, and for first-time buyers it will be more difficult to enter the market.

The bad news is two-fold for those unable to buy their first home. We are expecting rental growth to return to the Brisbane market this year. While property values have not grown in real terms since 2007, the low-interest-rate environment during 2008 and the First Home Owner Grant boost lured many out of the rental market and into home ownership. As a result of these conditions rents have been falling since the start of 2008. With property value growth likely to be flat, interest rates at above average levels and possibly increasing further, and Queensland's building approval numbers still disappointing, we expect that competition within Brisbane's rental market will intensify.

With limited new stock coming on line, demand for existing stock is likely to increase, particularly in inner city suburbs. As a result, landlords are likely to have increased scope to lift rents. At RPData we expect property values to fall in real terms, but it is likely that during the year rents will increase in actual and real terms.

This may be the case in Brisbane, but don't expect the same conditions outside the capital. Limited demand, a rental oversupply in some areas and the lacklustre performance of the tourism sector are likely to result in falls for rents and values in real terms."

Source

Happy New Year From Australian Banks

The Midtown

Demolition has started for a new apartment building at 127 Charlotte Street, directly opposition Charlotte Towers. (Charlotte Towers is being surrounded - don't buy in Charlotte Towers for the views!) The building is called The Midtown, and will consist of studio, one and two bed apartments.

Queensland Property Market Very Weak

"A NEW year will not necessarily bring renewed confidence to the southeast Queensland property market, with predictions it will struggle for at least another six months.

Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel expects little price growth even if turnover increases. Senior project manager Angie Zigomanis said that while other states had seen a pick-up this year, Queensland's market was still very weak.

"The Queensland market collapsed a little later than other states, so it was natural it would take longer to bounce back," he said.

Property analyst Michael Matusik believes there is no end in sight for Queensland's property market slump, which is stuck in a buyer's market. He predicts sales will decline, properties will take longer to sell, there will be little or no price growth, and there will be slight falls in value during the year.

...

Mr Zigomanis predicts the first interest rate rise will be about June, and the second in the December quarter. He also believes investors may decide to re-enter the market towards the end of 2011.

Despite advertised stock levels falling away in the usual Christmas slow down, the total number of properties on the market was still 20 per cent higher than in 2009.

Australian Property Monitors predicts homebuyer activity to remain restrained in most markets early this year, with potential price growth by mid-year.

Its annual state-of-the-market report found that while Perth and Sydney would see strong price growth next year, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide would experience more modest growth."

Full Story

Off-the-plan sales are slow

SALES of new highrise apartments took a dive in the past quarter with Brisbane levels the lowest they have been in 18 months and the Gold Coast drastically down.

In Brisbane, there were 133 unconditional sales of new highrise apartments in the quarter to the end of November.

See Courier Mail

Capital Growth

In December's Australian Property Investor magazine, there is a chart from Collier's that lists average capital growth and average hold years for certain Brisbane apartments, as at August 2010. The capital growth period and methodology to produce these figures is not disclosed:

Casino Towers - 5.9%, 3.7 years average hold

Aurora - 5.4%, 3.6 years average hold

Felix - 5.25%, 3.8 years average hold

Quay West - 4.9%, 5.1 years average hold

Festival Towers - 2.3%, 3.9 years average hold

M on Mary - 1.1%, 2.9 years average hold

Charlotte Towers, 0.9%, 3.5 years average hold.

My guess is that the hold period is calculated from when the off-the-plan contract is signed, not when settlement takes place.

Off-the-plan investors in Devine's Festival Towers and Charlotte Towers have clearly lost money. A word of warning for investors in Devine's Hamilton Harbour. Devine's Casino Towers has done ok, but that is unlikely to be repeated now that Jupiters is building a massive hotel across from Casino Towers that will block much of this buildings river views (but not the western sun). Out of this group, my pick would be Quay West -- only 132 apartments, with a long hold period and good capital growth, never to be built out views.

Differences in Apartments

A recent Adjudicator's decision regarding Admiralty Towers II highlights a factor that buyers and valuers sometimes overlook -- that is, some apartments have different rights and facilities than other apartments in the same building. In Admiralty Towers II, there are two swimming pools -- a lower pool and a pool on the top floor. Each pool also has a gym. The top floor pool also has a roof sundeck.

The bylaws of the building state that the owners of lots 126 to 193 may use both pools and gyms. The owners of lots 1 to 125 may only use the pool and gym on the lower floor, and cannot use the top floor pool, gym or sundeck.

A resident challenged this bylaw. The challenge failed. These kind of bylaws are not unfair or unreasonable. See Ref 0915-2010 issued 23 December 2010.

Thus, the value of an apartment on a higher floor should be more than a similar an apartment on a lower floor -- not just because of the views, but because the apartment has access to more facilities.

The moral of the story: when buying or renting, check to see if any apartments have access to exclusive use facilities. Make sure you are doing a like for like comparison when looking at recent sales data.

Ray White Market Update

I received a Ray White CBD Residential Market Update this week. Some extracts:

• "we also have 37% more properties for sale so buyers have more choice"
• "The inner city unit market continues to be popular..."
• "While there is an increase in the number of listings, there is no evidence of an oversupply of units in the marketplace."
• "Projects that are going ahead are price targeted toward the lower end of the market."
• "there has been an abundance of rental properties available so far this year in the Inner City causing the vacancy factor to over around 4%" (compared to Sydney and Melbourne at 1.2%)
• "Another factor is the rapid fall off of overseas students coming to Brisbane to study."

Ray White also reports that 91% of the properties that it auctioned this year sold, with an average of 61 days to sell. This compares with private treaty sales being 50% sold within 80 days. Doesn't sound like auctions are a fast way to sell. And 80 days time on market for private treaty is very bad -- and half of the properties listed for private treaty don't sell!! Not a good market for sellers.

Tips for 2011

Here are my tips for 2011 in relation to Brisbane apartments:

1. If you don't have to sell, don't sell. Wait until 2012 if you can to sell.

2. If you have to sell, don't sell by auction.

3. Don't buy off-the-plan.

4. If buying: Focus on good quality apartments in good locations. A cheap apartment in a less than desirable location is not a good investment.

5. Don't take risks.

The Oracle - Big Losses

INVESTORS who bought into the $850 million Oracle Broadbeach development on the Gold Coast have taken losses of up to $1m.

Receivers of the company behind the failed project are vowing to pursue legal action over the unsettled 200-odd apartments in the two-tower complex, once promoted by author and former model Tara Moss.

One Oracle apartment owner said he was aware of people who had settled on apartments located on the 44th floor for $3.5m and had since sold them for $2.5m.

Michael Kuhne said his late wife bought one of the three-bedroom Broadbeach apartments off the plan for $2.4m, and it was yet to settle.

He tried to sell the property last year, but there were no buyers. "I am trying to get rid of it and can't," he said.

KordaMentha announced on Thursday night that South Sky Investments, the Niecon-related company behind the Oracle, had been placed into voluntary receivership by director Michael Nikiforides. The Broadbeach project was highly leveraged with several financiers, including the National Australia Bank, sources said.

Queensland property analyst Bill Morris said the number of new high-rise apartments for sale on the Gold Coast had almost halved to about 750 in the past year, and the volume of sales for the three months to November was the lowest level since 1981.

"Things improved for a while, but the Gold Coast in particular has died. There is a general expectation in the market that prices could still fall," he said.

The two 40- and 50-storey Oracle towers have 505 apartments, a five-star hotel, shops and commercial office space and are among the tallest on the Gold Coast.

It is the second Niecon-related venture to fail this month after the company linked to the Nirvana By The Sea residential Gold Coast project, Kirra Beachfront Investments, was handed over to its financier.

Attention is turning to other luxury apartment towers on the Gold Coast, such as Juniper's Soul, a Surfers Paradise luxury apartment project, which settles at the end of next year, and the Hilton Surfers Paradise Hotel & Residences, which is also settling next year.

Source: The Australian

2010 Brisbane Apartment Awards

These are our awards for 2010:

1. Wildest Advertising Claim

FKP Properties wins this for their overpriced The Milton development. Their sales agents are giving out printed information to potential investors about future property values. They have a sheet of paper showing investment returns for a 2 bed, 1 bath apartment listed at $650,000. The prediction is that this apartment will be worth $807,500 on completion of the project in 2013, and will be worth over $1M by 2016. The predicted rent is over $720 a week in 2013.

2. Worst Investment

This is a hard one. Many investors who purchased off-the-plan in 2006 or 2007 had to settle this year. Some were unable to get bank valuations anywhere near settlement. The contenders for this category are:

• Mirvac's Tennyson Reach
• Niecon's The Oracle at Broadbeach
• Raptis' The Hilton Surfers Paradise
• Evolution.

I think they are all bad investments, so maybe a four way tie!

3. Biggest Delayed Development

Again, a number of contenders for this category. There are many big developments that have been delayed indefinitely -- Trilogy, Evolution, Empire Square, FKP's Albion Mill. South Point is another contender here -- although it looks about to finally begin.

But the winner is El Dorado at Indooroopilly. Construction has been about to start for years now. What is going on at this development?

Which way is the market heading in Brisbane?

RP Data reports low auction clearance results for Brisbane for last week:

APM reports the following top sales for Brisbane City apartments (in the 4000 post code) -- which may not be accurate:

New Gold Coast Apartments - Colliers Report

The Gold Coast new apartment market has seen a continued decline in stock levels during the third quarter of 2010 to sit at its lowest level in six years

KEY FINDINGS.....

• The Gold Coast and Tweed Coast new apartment market reported a total of 126 unconditional sales during the third quarter of 2010.

• There were a total of 1,588 apartments available for sale at the end of September representing 3.1 years supply based on the current selling rate.

• 2 projects sold out during the third quarter, and 2 projects were added.

• The Southport / Labrador Precinct was the standout performer for the quarter with a total of 57 sales.

• The high rise sector recorded the highest number of sales for the third quarter with 79 (63%) of the total 126 recorded.

• The average sale price of a new apartment during the third quarter was around $680,000.

Pets in 212 Margaret

As reported in a prior post, there was a decision relating to pets in 212 Margaret apartment building in Brisbane. Here is the Decision.

It is interesting to read the submissions of some apartment owners who tried to prevent pets in other people's apartments. Maybe we should have a rule that says no children and TVs in their apartments. I have lived in expensive apartments in other cities where most people have pets. Some people in Brisbane are quite backwards! It is also strange that people have argued that there should be no pets because the building is being used (illegally) as a hotel!

"Jo Anast, owner of Lot 81, says she would like the possibility of having pets in the scheme and is in favour of the application.

Shane Doepel and Shaun Stevens, owners of Lot 31, say that the building is not suitable for housing pets in any circumstances, being a high-density CBD residential development. Most of the units are let as part of a very busy hotel. The scheme only has “modest common areas.” Owners who are buying into the scheme do so knowing that there is a “no pets” policy which in their case influenced their decision to buy.

Frank and Marilyn Moes, owners of Lot 61 (unit 1501) say that they purchased because of the “no pets” policy. They do not believe that living in the city is an appropriate environment for animals such as dogs and cats. There are no immediate close areas where a dog can be exercised, and dogs and cats should not be in all day but have a yard to play in and access to fresh air. Mr Moes also has an allergy to animal hair.

Rachel Findlay, owner of Lot 23 (unit 805) supports the application, believing it unreasonable to ban all pets. She has lived in CBD buildings which allow pets, and the animals have not been disruptive. In “Aurora” at 420 Queen Street, it is one of the reasons why the units are highly sought after. The body corporate should allow pets within reason such as pets below a certain weight/size.

Maria Barnett and Paul Schaller, owners of Lot 121 (unit 2701), say that before purchase they checked that pets were not allowed. He has severe allergies to dog and cat hair and would not be able to use the lifts or foyer if there was animal hair in the carpets. They say that in their experience with tenants, fish tanks can cause damage to carpets, clog drains and leave stains. The building is used as a hotel so a blanket ban on pets in not unreasonable. No matter how well- behaved pets are, they would cause extra work for the management and result in blocked-in balconies which would change the exterior of the building.

Verne Baistow, owner of Lot 95 (unit 2203) says that he supports a “no pets policy.” The units are too small to provide adequate room for an animal, and the units are used for hotel accommodation. “No animals are allowed in hotels” so there should not be any animals in the scheme building either. He is also concerned about health issues and noise.

Colin Yeoman and Louisa Farthing, owners of Lot 33 (room 1005) say that the registered by-law should remain as it is, since the building is inappropriate for the housing of pets.

Christine Torbey, owner of Unit 1801, says that the building is an inappropriate residence for pets, especially dogs and cats. Animals are unpredictable and it is not possible for an owner to control entirely an animal’s behaviour. She says that this is a “standard rule in city apartment blocks generally.”

Gregory Firth, owner of Unit 603 says that the scheme should not entertain pets at all."

"Likely to be orderly"

AUSTRALIA'S house prices are over-valued by 5 per cent to 10 per cent but any correction is ''likely to be orderly'' and the result of income and rent rises rather than a collapse in prices, says the International Monetary Fund.

See Brisbane Times

Brisbane Apartment Report from Colliers

The Brisbane Apartment market has recognised its strongest quarter of sales in over six years and suggests that Brisbane apartments are back on the radar for investors seeking low priced, yield driven product.

KEY FINDINGS.....

• The Inner North was again the top performer, leading Brisbane purely through supply of price pointed apartments.

• Q3 2010 finished with 1,584 new apartments available for sale in Inner Brisbane.

• 425 unconditional sales were made, suggesting a new unit supply of 11 months.

• The weighted average sales price of new apartments in Brisbane for Q3 was $534,894.

• The median price of units in Inner Brisbane was $445,000.

• High levels of residential supply are expected to enter the market in the short term.

---

South Point

The development, which incorporates the Heritage listed Collins Place building, will include three separate structures on the 0.85 hectare parcel of land.

A 20-storey building on the corner of Grey Street and Tribune Street will include a five-star hotel and 210 apartments.

The Emporium Hotel, Southpoint will include 132 rooms as well as a day spa, gymnasium, boutique conferencing facilities, restaurants and bars.

A 17-storey building at the centre of the site will consist of 2 storeys of retail including a full-range supermarket and 15 storeys of commercial offices. The upper level of the retail component will offer direct connection to the rail platform.

A third 24-storey building, on the corner of Vulture and Grey Streets will comprise 248 one, two and three bedroom apartments.

The development will be constructed in separate stages to meet the anticipated early demand for both the residential and commercial components.

South Point will bring a diverse range of new audiences to South Bank for both work and play and it will help to cement Grey Street as one of the great streets in Brisbane.

See South Bank newsletter.

The Oracle Goes Bust

Not unexpected - The Oracle tower's developer at Broadbeach went bust this week. It seems that the bank valuations for the off-the-plan sales were way less than the contract price, and so many apartments did not settle because the purchaser could not get finance. It seems that the banks were putting pressure on the developer to settle at lower prices. A downward spiral.

See Gold Coast Bulletin.

Admiralty Apartment Report

Colin Walsh from Ray White issued a report recently about the Admiralty Precinct. Here are some extracts:

Admiralty Quays

• "one of the most sought after residences within the Brisbane CBD"
• three bedroom sale for $1,350,000
• 2 bed type C average price 2010 = $780,000

Admiralty Towers I

• "Brisbane CBD's most tightly held residential apartment building"
• 5 sales recorded this year
• 2 bedroom sold for $750,000

Admiralty Towers II

• "one of the most prestigious and desirable buildings in the Brisbane CBD"
• 8 sales recorded this year
• 3 bedroom sold for $1,063,800
• 2 bed type C average price 2010 = $718,000
• 2 bed type B average price 2010 = $838,000

Skyline

• 15 sales recorded this year
• 2 bed type J average price 2010 = $582,500
• 2 bed type I average price 2010 = $647,100

Riverplace

• "most affordable riverfront residential building in the Brisbane CBD"
• 14 sales recorded this year
• 2 bed type E average price 2010 = $527,500
• 2 bed type B average price 2010 = $720,000

Aerial Photos of Brisbane

Mirvac's Newstead Waterfront project

Mirvac's Tennyson project

Pradella's Water's Edge

Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Chermside

South Bank

(photos taken September 2010)

Casino Towers to Loose River Views

A new highrise hotel is to be built on the old State library site will block out river views from Casino Towers. So take care when buying in Casino Towers!

See Brisbane Times and Courier Mail.

Apartment Sales Data

Double click image to make larger.

Real Estate Agents Say Ideal Conditions for Investors

The real estate agents industry lobby group, REIQ, issued a press release today, putting a positive spin on apartment sales in Queensland:

"Reduced demand for investment properties is providing ideal conditions for buyers, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

Over the September quarter, median unit and townhouse prices held steady in most areas of the state, while demand for properties usually targeted by investors and first home buyers reduced markedly as economic conditions and higher interest rates sidelined buyers.

Preliminary sales in the $350,000 to $500,000 price bracket across the State fell more than 20 per cent compared to the June quarter while sales in all other price brackets held their ground.

“The number of first home buyers has fallen since their high of last year, however, we anticipate demand from first-timers to continue to gradually increase next year,” REIQ managing director Dan Molloy said.

“Investors have also been sitting on the sidelines, with investment demand currently half of what it is was during 2007.

“Investors and first home buyers are usually competing for the same affordably-priced properties but the current lack of competition between these two buyer types has created ideal buying conditions, especially for investors.”

US News

"LOOKING for a deal in a down market? As winter sets in, the fruits of desperation — foreclosure sales, short sales, auction sales and deep discounts — are appearing in bountiful number, if anyone out there is hungry for a bargain."

NYTimes

TWO-BEDROOM apartments have long been the workhorse of the New York City real estate market, accounting year after year for the largest percentage of apartments sold.

When the recession hit, buyers fled the market and prices fell across the board. After things stabilized in late 2009, the market share for two-bedrooms had dropped from a typical 40 percent to as low as 25 percent, because more people had found that they could afford three-bedrooms, which took sales away from two-bedrooms.

Now, after a lull that has lasted for more than a year, two-bedrooms are back.

NYTimes

Real Estate Investors Look to the Future, and See Signs to Buy Apartment Towers

NYTimes

FOR some New Yorkers on the hunt for an apartment, the must-have item in the search is nothing as prosaic as a walk-in closet or a second bathroom. It is a number — a lucky number.

NYTimes

Brisbane Market About To Get Worse?

RP Data reports the following:

"The number of properties being advertised for sale nationally has risen sharply during the spring selling season of this year and the current volume of stock on the market is higher than those levels recorded during the depths of the GFC. ...

Across the major states, total listings are at the highest levels within Queensland. Across the state there are currently 75,655 properties advertised for sale which is the highest volume since RP Data started tracking listing volumes in 2007. ...

Despite Queensland being the country’s third most populous state, the number of property listings in Queensland are 15% higher than what is being recorded in New South Wales and 61% higher than Victorian listings. Since September 2009, Queensland has consistently recorded a greater volume of stock advertised for sale than that within New South Wales. ...

Within Brisbane and Hobart the number of properties advertised for sale are at their highest level since the beginning of 2007. ...

The real test for the property market will be around February of next year. Last time listings mounted to similar levels as they are currently the number of properties advertised for sale did not return to the pre Christmas levels. During the other two post Christmas periods detailed the volume of listings rapidly returned to pre Christmas levels in February. Should listings return to current levels it will indicate that there are many vendors who, for one reason or another, are willing to brave the slow market conditions and press ahead with the sale of their home. If listings don’t return to their current levels around February it probably means that many vendors have reassessed their position and preferred to hold off selling until conditions improve. Overall, listings data during the early part of 2011 will provide a very timely indicator and significant insight into the overall health of the Australian residential property market. "

More Details from Colliers Apartment Report

A post below mentioned the Colliers September 2010 Brisbane Apartment report. See "Why Are Colliers Optimistic". Some more details:

See this report:

Lachlan Walker, Colliers International project management & research - residential, says the Brisbane apartment market is in a similar position in the property cycle as it was more than a decade ago, where the market was looking more positive and just a few years from a major property boom, following a substantial period of depressed market conditions.

"The resounding theme for the September 2010 quarter is that the Brisbane Apartment market has made strong progress in recovering from the effects of the GFC," he says.

"It has been a difficult two years since the impacts of the declining US economy impacted the Australian property market, however the most recent quarter has seen the strongest rate of sale for the Brisbane market since 2004."

The report revealed that there were 425 unconditional sales of new apartments within Brisbane's Inner Ring, encompassing the five kilometre radius from the CBD, representing an increase of 21 per cent per cent from the 276 sales recorded in the June 2010 quarter. This brings the total unconditional sales for the 2010 year to-date to 977 transactions for Brisbane's Inner Ring, 182 more transactions than recorded for the entire 2009 calendar year. It must be noted that 32 per cent or 135 of the 425 unconditional sales were recorded in Laing O'Rourke's new residential release, M & A, in Brisbane's Fortitude Valley.

Other strong performers were FKP's The Milton to be developed by FKP which registered 68 unconditional sales for the three month period, as well as Devine's Riverside Hamilton and Aria Property Group's Station 16, which saw 41 and 42 sales respectively.

More Losses

Mirvac's Tennyson Reach: Apt 3302 is listed for sale at "half price". This is a three bedroom riverfront apartment (on a low floor). Approximately 150sqm. Listed for sale for $865,000 (a huge loss for the current owner).

Riparian, Apt 4504 at 71 Eagle Street. Sold by Mikki Finlay for $1,286,000 at auction last week. 2 bed, 2 bath, 2 car, 186 sqm. Last sold in March 2006 for $1,575,000. Good job Mikki, you only sold at a capital lost of $289,000 plus stamp duty. Hope you didn't charge commission?! Maybe sellers would do better listing on eBay?

Buyer Confidence Low

Extracts from a story in today's Courier Mail:

HOMEBUYER confidence has taken a dive in southeast Queensland with predictions of more pain to come.

While auction clearance rates have been on the way down for months, auctioneers are now reporting a drop in those even registering to bid.

Auctioneer Jason Andrew said only half the auctions he held last week attracted bidder registrations – significantly down on the highs of 80 per cent over the previous two weeks.

"Sixty one per cent of the properties we auctioned did not attract a genuine bid," he said.

" One property in particular sold for almost $300,000 under the vendor's original reserve."

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Hotel To Block Apartment Views

A new highrise hotel complex is planned for downtown Brisbane. If built, it will be located next door to the Vision hole, and adjacent to 212 Margaret and River City Apartments. It will block views from apartments in both buildings, so take care!

It will be located at 103 Mary Street, and will be 32 storeys, with 230 apartments or hotel rooms, but only 53 car parks.

See Brisbane Times.

Top End Heading Towards The Bottom

Here is evidence that, despite what real estate agents and developers tell you, the top end apartment market is not going great. Many people have overpaid in the past 4 years.

Apt 80 in Flow, at West End, now listed for $1,850,000. This is a massive 4 bedroom, 3.5 bathrooms, 4 car, riverview penthouse apartment. It is 272 sqm internal, and 370 sqm total floor space. It has been for sale for a while. It went to auction in March 2009 and did not sell. (It was purchased off-the-plan in 2006 for over $2.3M. I think a real estate agent's investment company purchased it, but am not sure. So with stamp duty and interest, a loss over well over half a million bucks!)

By comparison, Apt 23, on a lower floor (3rd floor -- partial river views) - 3 bedrooms, was listed for sale by the developer for $1.4M in November 2007.

Or the same developer, Pradella, was selling apartments off-the-plan in Waters Edge next door in May 2008 which are not as good for $1.9M to $2.2M (these are A1 and A2 apartments, 159 sqm, 3 bedrooms).

So you can see that prices being paid for expensive apartments have not held up. (Flow and Waters Edge and Riverpoint are not the greatest locations, looking west, in a semi-industrial area a long walk from any facilities. Infrastructure touted by developers 4 years ago has not arrived.)

If Flow has been a bad investment for some, what about a $4.5M capital loss. See this story.