Gold Coast Not Golden

I am always surprised to read commentary about Gold Coast apartments which is so positive -- when the market is very dead, nothing is selling, and prices are falling for what is selling. For apartments that are holiday rentals, most owners will receive low returns, not enough to cover outgoings. Yet, agents still talk the market up. Here is a more realistic story:

"December 3rd, 2008

GOLD Coast real estate may fall a further 20 per cent over the next year, according to one of the city's leading property forecasters. Author of the Midwood Report Bill Morris said while the Gold Coast's median house price fell by only 3.7 per cent in the September quarter, it marked the start of a long and consistent drop in property values that could last 18 months.

Mr Morris last night told a group of property watchers at a seminar unveiling his November-quarter Queensland Investment report his gloomy projection was based on the skewed correlation between house prices and rental returns.

Mr Morris said that while rental returns languished around 4 per cent, house prices would continue their downward slide. "Because of the increase in house prices over the past five years, which has been about 100 per cent, despite declining demand, it has meant rental returns have gone down significantly and are now unacceptably low," said Mr Morris. "They are currently about 4 per cent gross which is stifling the investment market. Really, 5 per cent is acceptable and to do that you can either increase rents by 20 per cent or have a decrease in house prices by 20 per cent."

Investors would only return to the market once rental returns became more attractive, he said.

Mr Morris's analysis came on the same day that AMP chief economist Shane Oliver also predicted a rough ride for Gold Coast property. Mr Oliver yesterday told The Gold Coast Bulletin he expected property nationwide to fall an average of 10 to 15 per cent, but predicted the Coast may fare worse. "I see coastal locations where people had a holiday home coming under pressure," said Mr Oliver.

Mr Morris expected a market recovery would take 12 to 18 months."

Gold Coast Bulletin

Not all Doom & Gloom

"THE economics of Australia's $3.3 trillion housing market is widely misunderstood, with sensationalist claims that a housing bubble caused the global credit crisis and that Australian house prices will fall by 30 per cent to 50 per cent. In fact, the latest RP Data-Rismark Index results show that Australian house prices declined by just 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to October this year, and increased during the most recent three months.
...

In Australia, the hyperbolic predictions of economists Steve Keen and Gerard Minack that house prices will fall by 30 per cent to 50 per cent have been relentlessly recycled in newspapers and purportedly credible programs such as 60 Minutes and The 7.30 Report.

The doomsayers' claims are based on the assumption that housing affordability is at an all-time low.

They dismiss the fact house prices are determined by supply as well as demand (affordability is a demand-side factor) and conclude that prices must fall by some arbitrarily large margin. Keen likes to shock by quotingstatistics about the rise in household debt without acknowledging that debt-servicing ratios have remained unchanged thanks to vastly lower real interest rates, the emergence of two-income households and higher real incomes.

Recent analysis by the Reserve Bank of Australia has comprehensively demonstrated that housing affordability is not at an all-time low. According to one of the Reserve Bank's benchmarks, the representative household in June 2007 had more real disposable income left over after purchasing a home and servicing a 90per cent mortgage than at any other time since June 1982.

The bank also found that the representative household could afford to buy 33 per cent of all homes in June 2007, which, although less than the historical average of 45 per cent, was markedly better than the 13 per cent of homes available to it in June 1990.

Importantly, the Reserve Bank's present 4.25 per cent cash rate is considerably lower than the 6.25 per cent rate that existed in June 2007. Since mortgage rates peaked at 9.6 per cent in August, the Reserve Bank has pushed them down to about 6.7 per cent, with markets predicting that they will be less than 5 per cent by mid-2009. At the same time, house prices have not appreciated...."

"The Reserve Bank believes Australia's housing market is leading the US by three years, having entered into its downturn in 2004. There is also a consensus between the Reserve Bank and most economists that the doomsayers' predictions will be proven wrong. A striking counterfactual is the 1990-92 recession, when unemployment hit 10.9 per cent yet house prices rose by 2 per cent a year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The media would do well to interrogate sensationalism."

Source: The Australian

Water's Edge Update

From a Pradella newletter:
"Despite Brisbane's uncertain property market, buyer confidence remains strong for Waters Edge with an unprecented $40 million in sales made since its launch. Forty-eight of the 221 apartments have sold to a mix of investors and owner-occupiers, as buyers look to quickly capitalise by purchasing at the unique site."

"Consisting of two eight-storey buildings, named Drift and Reach, one, two and three bedroom apartments are available, priced from $540,000.In addition to the apartments, there are 32 premium absolute riverfrontage apartments called the Riverfront Collection that have a total area of between 188-332m2, consist of 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms plus a separate multi-purpose room and study, priced from $1.795 million are for buyers searching for the ultimate in inner-city luxury living."

October 2008 Property Index

"Claims that the Australian property market would in 2008 experience a major downturn have been proven incorrect based on the most recent findings of the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Property Value Index, which in October again showed that Australian capital city property prices had increased for the second consecutive month. ...

Based on RP Data-Rismark Index results, RP Data head of research Tim Lawless believes that the doom and gloom merchants have misunderstood the fundamentals and the diversity of the Australian residential property market by predicting that Australia was headed for a market-wide implosion in 2008.

“The facts are that over the past 12 months Australian property values have declined by just 0.8 percent which is a phenomenal result when compared to the S&P/ASX 200 index which reported a decline of 40.5 percent,” Mr Lawless said. “The October RP Data-Rismark Index results reinforce my suggestion that the Australian property market has moved through the bottom of its cycle.” ...

For savvy investors the timing to enter the market is now better than ever according to RP Data’s Tim Lawless – “For investors who are willing to go against the flow, buying conditions are exceptionally strong and yields are improving every month,” he said.

“The fundamentals underlying the Australian property market are extremely robust. Investors need to take into account current supply constraints, infrastructure delivery, immigration, vacancy rates, rising rents and expectations that interest rates will continue to fall. These are the basics that should fuel capital gains for investors.”

Melbourne, Brisbane & Sydney
In the 10 months to October 2008, Melbourne residential values have been flat (+0.2 percent) while Brisbane (-1.7 percent) and Sydney (-1.9 percent) are off slightly. However, during August, September and October 2008 Melbourne (+1.1 percent) and Sydney (+0.5 percent) property values have increased consistent with the overall market recovery following the Q2 contractions.

See Press Release and Details

Value of Brisbane Car Park?

A car park in down town Brisbane appear to add about $60,000 to the value of an apartment. A two bedroom apartment without a car park is virtually unsaleable.
FindACarPark is a good site to look at to see the rental value of a car park in Brisbane - seems to be about $400 to $500 per month to rent. When I looked, no car park was listed for sale in Brisbane.
See also this site.

Brisbane In Summer

www.brisbaneinsummer.com.au

What My Bank Manager Told Me This Week

• Investors are re-entering the Brisbane property market
• There are bargains in Brisbane property
• Rents are good, and increasing
• Interest rates are low, and decreasing
• Investors are getting more than 5% gross returns on recently purchased Brisbane apartments
  

Hamilton Harbour - 4 Buildings Proposed

New website for Hamilton Harbour residential building, called Harbour One. It is behind the Bretts Wharf development, on Kingsford Smith Drive.

"A 19-storey tower and 22-storey tower will house a total of 416 apartments, and the developers have already committed to selling a percentage of residences in the low-to-medium price range.

The budget apartments will be "space-efficient" while other one-bedroom offerings will come without a car space.

"This will enable these units to be offered for sale at a considerably lesser price to those who would otherwise be unable to afford housing in such a well-serviced location," the project plan details."

Brisbane Times

View from the air

Gold Coast vs Brisbane

"The apartment market on the Gold Coast is more problematic because conditions there are still very tight and after Sydney, the Gold Coast is more dependent than any other city on the apartment market," he said. "Investors have been fleeing that market and combined with a decrease in buyer confidence, apartment prices may continue to come down."

Mr Anderson predicts unit prices will stabilise in the first half of 2009 before again beginning to rise.

"We are expecting to see growth again in the apartment market but it won't happen until 2010, it will take longer than the housing market, and probably not as quickly as in Brisbane," he said. "There could be a really strong rebound in that market in the first half of 2010 but it will be coming off a fairly low base."

Source: GoldCoast.com.au website

Amother Apartment Complex near Milton Brewery

"A $19 million highrise near Milton's Fourex brewery has won council approval, but new residents are warned complaints will fall on deaf ears. The development on Railway Terrace consists of a 20-storey unit block and an eight-storey retail and commercial building."

See Courier Mail and Skyscraper Life

Admiralty Towers Two - Blog

Have a look at this Blog: http://atowers2.blogspot.com/

Indooroopilly Riverbend Tower

Riverbend Tower was supposed to be an all rental building. However, it appears that the developer has now decided to sell some of the apartments.

Example pricing:

• 2 bed, 2 bath, 6th floor, 95 sqm internal, 31 sqm balcony, 126 sqm total, 1 carpark = $600,000
• 3 bed, 2 bath, 5th floor, 125 sqm internal, 36 sqm balcont, 161 sqm total, 2 carparks = $735,000

Some apartments will have river views. However, the eastern facing apartments look over the railway station at Indooroopilly (so noise from trains and cars), the southern facing apartments look at the Walter Taylor Bridge, and the western facing apartments will get the western sun.

What is in store for Brisbane Apartments?

"Matusik notes Brisbane respondents are more optimistic than property professionals on the Gold and Sunshine coasts. In turn, Gold Coasters are more bullish about a recovery in 2009 than those on the Sunshine Coast, where about half of the respondents think sales will continue to fall in the new year. Matusik says about 30 per cent of those surveyed think an inner-city pad in Brisbane will be the best residential investment."

The Australian, 22 November 2008

"Paul Braddick, head of property and financial system research at the ANZ Banking Group, says: “There is certainly a problem with sentiment and with construction finance at the moment. But for property investors I would instead focus on rising rents, the lower interest rate environment, the subsequent improvement in affordability and the increase in the first-home buyer’s grants. These all point to a brighter future for residential property, even if the next six to 12 months prove slow.”

I believe a halt in the construction of new apartment towers is a sign that it’s time for the wise investor to start researching the market and getting to know it thoroughly. First-class investment properties are available at a fair price, but there’s only a minuscule chance they will be in multi-level city buildings."

Smart Company, 20 November 2008

"If you want a swimming pool now, buy a unit in Queen Street. If you live in the outer suburbs, houses don't often have room for swimming pools," Professor Hall said.

Courier Mail, 17 November 2008

"Brisbane's CBD recorded 17 new apartment sales during the quarter, from a possible 178 units on the market.

"In terms of rental vacancies for residential apartments, inner-city Brisbane retained the lowest vacancy rate of only 1.4 per cent," Mr Walker said. "This suggests that rental rates will continue to rise as demand for accommodation increases and rental stock supply dwindles."

Brisbane Times, 19 November 2008

M on Mary in liquidation

"M on Mary provides buyers with a golden opportunity to purchase stock at prices which are well below replacement value. Which Property? have been appointed as agents under instruction from Receivers and Managers acting for Willahra Pty Ltd, and as such the balance of properties remaining in M on Mary must be sold."

Brisbane Apartment Videos

Meriton's Soleil

Trilogy

Festival Towers

Charlotte Towers

Please Take Me To Brisbane

Brisbane

Sherwood Parklands

I have previously written about Pradella's development "Parklands at Sherwood" which is high on a hilltop overlooking parks and Oxley Creek, with city views in the distance. See prior comment.

I visited again this week. Apartment Building 1 (AP1, marketed as Jacaranda) is almost complete. The bottom floor is at lockup stage, and the top floor apartments are being tiled. Looks like about 2 to 3 months work until completion. Apartment Building 2 (AP2, marketed as Brookline) now has a roof. The bottom floor has internal walls, the top floor has frames for internal walls. Probably 6 months more work till completion. There are also terrace house and detached houses.

I am very impressed with the apartments. Even the smaller two bedroom apartments seem large. Maybe this is because at least half the apartments have great park views. The design and outlook is good. I am less impressed by the detached houses -- they are in the worst location in the development, and the rooms seem smaller than I would have liked.

There are some resales already listed:

• smaller 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, study nook, 2 cars, top floor, park & city views - listed at $530,000
• smaller 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, study nook, 2 cars, top floor, village green views- listed at $520,000
• 3 bedroom townhouse - listed at $798,000

Some of the developer stock in AP1, at the rear of the building, is discounted. For example, a 2 bedroom apartment for sale in the mid $400,000s. There is good buying to be had, and this development will impress when complete.

Gabba Central Apartments Bowled Out

"Gabba Central's 270 luxury apartments, retail space and 300 underground carparks were slow to sell and value plunged as a result of Brisbane's stagnant property market and the global credit crunch."
"The Brisbane property is now in the hands of financiers UCIS, which is responsible for selling the remaining space at Gabba Central for market rate in order to recover the $31 million.

If the sales fail to cover the total debt, PKW is liable to hand over up to $10 million in cash or assets. Potentially this will involve Taranaki land and buildings held by the dairy giant."

Full story is here.

My view was that this was a poor property.

Building Classifications

How will this impact Oaks, and apartment owners who are doing short term rentals in buildings that are not designed for short term rentals:
http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/newsletter/newsflash-327-guideline.pdf

Low Ball Skyline

Skyline is selling new 3 bedroom apartments for $650,000. This is less than some of the two bedroom prices in Skyline. These apartments were recently marketed for $720,000 plus. They are nice city apartments, but will be crowded out by Meriton's Soleil and Macrossan towers.

South Point and Buranda

"ARCHITECT-developer Tony John is willing to bet $1 billion that the run-down suburb of Buranda, in Brisbane's inner south, will be the next New Farm.Mr John has a scheme for a massive residential, retail and commercial project that can only be called immensely ambitious.

He is willing to bet that Brisbane people will be willing to pay about $500,000 for an entry-level one-bedroom apartment measuring less than than 50sq m. Big enough to swing a cat - just. He's willing to bet that they will want to live right next to the truck-laden Logan Rd, over a train line and right next to a busway in a suburb that looks like it has had too much sun and has never been known for urban chic. He's also betting that the housing affordability dilemma will mean people will question if they can afford a home and a car.

But just to show how strongly he feels about Buranda, the man who developed the oh-so-swish Emporium development in Fortitude Valley says he is less confident about his separate plans for 56 luxury apartments at South Bank projected to cost between $2 million and $10 million each. "I would not like to make that call right now," he said...."
See Courier Mail

Skyline Price Decreases

Skyline is selling new 3 bedroom apartments for $650,000. This is less than some of the two bedroom prices in Skyline. These apartments were recently marketed for $720,000 plus. They are nice city apartments, but will be crowded out by Meriton's Soleil and Macrossan towers.

Howard Smith Wharf redevelopment

The Council has issued a plan for urban renewal in the wharf area under the Story Bridge. It looks like an excellent plan, and my guess is that it will increase the value of the apartments in the Admiralty precinct. It is called the Howard Smith Wharves redevelopment.

Details here and here.

Waters Edge on the Edge

A friend forwarded an email to me, recently received from Pradella, that included the following:

"Pradella have adjusted the pricing of some of the apartments in ‘Reach’ at Waters Edge. We have now sold 50 apartments, but we need to keep moving toward our pre sales targets, hence the pricing adjustments. The 1 beds have not been adjusted, but some of the 2 bed plus 1 bath, and 2 bed plus 2 bath have, and there are some very good buys to be had."

My guess is that no construction will commence until there are about 100 pre-sales.

Recovery?

See story in SMH.

Water's Edge at West End Update

A friend forwarded an email to me, recently received from Pradella, that included the following:

"Pradella have adjusted the pricing of some of the apartments in ‘Reach’ at Waters Edge. We have now sold 50 apartments, but we need to keep moving toward our pre sales targets, hence the pricing adjustments. The 1 beds have not been adjusted, but some of the 2 bed plus 1 bath, and 2 bed plus 2 bath have, and there are some very good buys to be had."

My guess is that no construction will commence until there are about 100 pre-sales.

Trilogy or Soleil?

With Empire Square and Vision both gone, it seems that the only two large inner city high rise on the horizon are Trilogy Tower and Meriton's Soleil. Both are similar heights, in a similar location, and are apartments without balconies. Both will have hotel / serviced apartments. Both will complete about the same time. I hear that some people who were initially interested in Trilogy are now interested in Soleil. They are different products. Soleil is cheaper on a price per sqm basis, and probably a different level of quality.

Trilogy (Mirvac managed hotel apartments) (residential apartments not yet on sale so not part of this comparision)

• 16 apartments per floor, over 12 levels. 192 apartments in total
• 3 elevators
• 1 and 2 bedroom configurations
• sold furnished, if one signs up with Mirvac
• 6% rental guarantee
• on sale for more than 3 months
• about 60 to 70 reported as sold
• one bedroom size - 53 to 59 sqm, most without car parking
• two bedroom size - 70 to 89 sqm, with 1 car park

Example pricing for 1 bedroom:
Level 35, East view - $530,000
Level 41, East view - $555,000
Level 41, River view - $570,000
2 bedrooms:
Level 35, river view - $890,000
Level 37, corner apartment, NE river view - $945,000
Level 37, corner apartment, SE river view - $940,000

Soleil - residential apartments

• 5 to 7 apartments per floor. 188 apartments on sale, with others being held by developer
  
• 3 elevators
• 1, 2 and 3 bedroom configurations
• sold unfurnished
• rental guarantee
• on sale for about 10 days
  
• less than 10 sold
  
• one bedroom size - 46 to 62 sqm, without car parking
• two bedroom size - 71 to 83 sqm, with 1 car park

2 bedroom apartments
Level 31, city view over Adelaide Street: $509,000
Level 40, views over All Hallows: $615,000
Level 42, views towards The Valley: $610,000
Level 42: views of River Place, and maybe Storey Bridge: $672,000
Level 47: views over Skyline towards the river: $755,000

No More Vision

"PLANS for Brisbane's tallest tower appear to be crumbling with builders told [Friday] the contract for works on the Vision tower had been suspended. Builder Grocon told workers at the Mary St site yesterday that the main works contract had been suspended by the developer, Austcorp. Last week an Austcorp spokes-man said the $950 million, 287m Vision was a live project and it would be Built. Austcorp head Trevor Chappell was overseas yesterday and un-able to be contacted to confirm the suspension" Source: Courier Mail.

"A company spokesman insisted Vision would be built when market conditions improved, but industry sources have told brisbanetimes.com.au completion is unlikely. One senior development figure said the project's future had been uncertain for some time and claimed there had long been doubt surrounding Austcorp's ability to secure credit.

While the developer continued to tout apartment sales figures up until last month, it is understood several multimillion dollar conditional contracts had collapsed."

in liquidation: M on Mary

"RECEIVERS & MANAGERS APPOINTED IN LIQUIDATION. BRAND NEW APARTMENTS. INVEST TODAY FROM JUST $295,000 IN THE HEART OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIAS MOST EXCITING AND LIVEABLE CITY. PLUS A RENTAL GUARANTEE OF 6.5% GROSS (avg) MANGEMENTS FEES INCLUDED."

It appears that a Gold Coast company has been appointed to off load what remains for sale in M on Mary serviced (non residential) apartments. This building has 1 bedroom apartments, with some 3 bedroom apartments on higher floors. About 400 apartments in total, with over 100 reported as unsold. A very poor pool area. Most don't have car parks. Small apartments. Avoid!

Which Buildings Have More Owner Residents?

The Brisbane City Council has released a list (in relation to rate increases) that includes the number of owner occupied apartments in Brisbane apartment buildings. The full list is here. My view is that the higher number of owner occupiers in a building, the better the investment in that building.

Community Title Scheme Name	Number of Units	Number of Owner-occupied Units	Percentage Owner Occupied
ADMIRALTY QUAYS	173	59	34%
ADMIRALTY TOWERS	151	49	32%
ADMIRALTY TOWERS II	193	71	37%
ALLEGRO APARTMENTS	117	16	14%
CASINO TOWERS	214	34	16%
CENTREPOINT	51	20	39%
CHARLOTTE TOWERS	415	29	7%
CORONATION RESIDENCES	48	22	46%
CUTTERS LANDING - CUNNINGHAM	33	14	42%
CUTTERS LANDING - FLINDERS	84	53	63%
FELIX	254	48	19%
FESTIVAL TOWERS	401	51	13%
KOKO APARTMENTS	110	36	33%
LEXICON APARTMENTS	89	16	18%
OXYGEN	191	34	18%
PARK AVENUE AT SOUTH BANK	56	32	57%
PARKLAND BOULEVARD	400	168	42%
PRECINCT TOOWONG	46	19	41%
QUAY WEST BRISBANE	136	28	21%
QUEEN STREET 570	127	9	7%
REGATTA APARTMENTS	59	17	29%
RIPARIAN PLAZA APARTMENTS	48	23	48%
RIVER PLACE APARTMENTS	314	76	24%
SKYLINE APARTMENTS	185	37	20%
THE AURORA TOWER	472	128	27%
THE GARDENS	107	23	21%
TRILOGY RESIDENCES	121	8	7%
WILLAHRA TOWER	106	16	15%

Prices Still Increasing

From RP Data's Property Pulse:
"Brisbane
Across the 12 months to August 2008, Brisbane’s median house value has increased by $21,915 although, the level of vendor discounting has also increased by 3.64%. Given this, vendors who sold in August 2008 would be $6,328 better off than if they sold at the same time last year. Brisbane’s median unit value rose by $11,966 across the year to August 2008, meanwhile an increase in the level of vendor discounting of 3.09% has meant that a Brisbane vendor selling at the median unit value would have been $2,410 better off selling this year as opposed to selling at the median value last year"

Vision Suspended

"PLANS for Brisbane's tallest tower appear to be crumbling with builders told yesterday the contract for works on the Vision tower had been suspended. Builder Grocon told workers at the Mary St site yesterday that the main works contract had been suspended by the developer, Austcorp. Last week an Austcorp spokes-man said the $950 million, 287m Vision was a live project and it would be Built. Austcorp head Trevor Chappell was overseas yesterday and un-able to be contacted to confirm the suspension" Source: Courier Mail.

Rates Ripoff in Brisbane

CITY Hall will drag five times the amount of general rates out of Kelvin Grove Urban Village this financial year.
Information released by Brisbane City Council after a question with notice shows some inner city buildings will collectively pour 400 per cent more in general rates in to the city’s coffers than last year, with Kelvin Grove Urban Village facing the biggest rise. The Village’s 213 unit owners paid a total $83,411 in general rates to council in the previous financial year, the information shows. But this will jump to $443,750 for the 2008/09 financial year after changes are introduced in January, designed to increase rates for some of the city’s most expensive inner city apartments. The changes, which take effect in January, will lift the general rate for the average unit owner in the Village from $392 last financial year to about $2100 for this financial year. But just a fraction of those living in the Village are owner-occupiers, meaning all but 23 units are owned by investors.
Other addresses to be hard hit by the new ``parity scheme’’ include the Parkland Boulevard building in Brisbane’s CBD, which will collectively pay 364 per cent more in general rates than last year, increasing the building’s total contribution to $753,000. The building contains 168 owner occupied units and 232 investment units.
Council will collect 300 per cent more in general rates for the year from Riverplace Apartments in Brisbane, where 76 of the building’s 314 units are owner occupied.
Owners of units in Admiralty Towers II in Queen Street will fork out 310 per cent more than last financial year.
Riverscape West unit owners in MacDonald St, Kangaroo Point, face an increase of 150 per cent over last financial year.
The information shows just under 1000 owners of units in 116 inner-city apartment blocks will together boost council’s kitty by $6.3 million this financial year under the changes, representing a 127 per cent overall increase for the addresses.
Central ward Councillor David Hinchliffe (Labor) said the changes would take a toll on residents of Kelvin Grove’s Urban Village, which he said was ``not the most salubrious address.’’ Cr Hinchliffe said the impact on unit owners would be about an 800 per cent increase from one quarter’s rates bill to the next.
But council Finance chairman Adrian Schrinner said the information put to rest once and for all claims people were facing 1000 per cent rises in their rates bills. He reiterated a previous commitment to issue letters to unit owners showing the individual increases they face ahead of the January changes.
See City News

Soleil Tower Sales Launched Today

Meriton's Soleil, its first building in Brisbane, launches this weekend. (Completion of the building is planned for 2011 or 2012.)

It will be 74 levels, and 234 metres high, located at the end of Adelaide Street, behind Skyline and next door to Macrossan (which is under construction).

Floors 31 to 64 contain the apartments that Meriton will sell. Floors 65 to 74, comprising 42 apartments, are not for sale. Floors 30 and below will probably be 175 serviced apartments, owned and managed by Meriton. A total of 188 apartments will go on sale this weekend. They are 1 to 3 bedroom apartments. The 2 and 3 bed apartments have 2 bathrooms, and an underground carpark (up to 10 levels below Adelaide Street level).

On the higher floors (above level 41), there are five apartments per floor. There are 3 elevators for about 220 apartments, which is not a great ratio. (Admiralty Two, just nearby, has 191 apartments and six elevators.)

None of the apartments have balconies. Airconditioned, full length windows, and floor to ceiling tiles in the bathroom. Indoor pool and gym.

Here are some example two bed, two bath apartments:

Apartment 6001, level 60, views south down the Brisbane River over the top of Skyline, 79 sqm and 1 car park. Listed for sale at $823,000, which is about $10,400 a sqm.

Apartment 4205, level 42, limited views between Admiralty Quays and River Place, but good views over All Hallows, 83 sqm and 1 car park. Listed for sale at $672,000, which is just over $8,000 per sqm.

Apartment 5204, level 52, views over Admiralty Quays, 78 sqm and 1 carpark. Listed for sale at $688,000, which is just over $8,800 a sqm.

Compare existing, older stock of 2 and 3 bedroom apartments nearby:

• Admiralty Two, Level 4, direct riverfront, 103 sqm (including balconey), listed at $720,000
• Skyline, Level 27, river views, 102 sqm (including balconey), fully furnished, listed at $720,000
• Admiralty One, Level 18, direct riverfront, 3 bedrooms, 2 carparks, 150 sqm, listed at $880,000.
• Quay West, Level 16, river and park views, 120 sqm, listed at $850,000
• River Place, Level 13, direct riverfront, 116 sqm listed at $675,000 or $675,000

From what I can tell, the current actual sales price for direct riverfront apartments in the city is between $6000 and $7000 a sqm.

Overall, Soleil is in a great location, the floor plans seem to be well designed, and Meriton will deliver. Care should be taken when selecting, as some apartments will not have great views due to neighbouring buildings -- but some apartments should have great views (if you like heights!). The apartments are a little small for my liking, and I am not sure about lack of balconey.

M on Mary - bank takes over?

I heard that the developer of M on Mary has gone into bankruptcy or receivership. There are a number of apartments that remain to be sold. Unfortunately, I have no other details at this time.

Meriton Soleil Pricing

Apartments for Sale

Size	Parking	Priced from	Floorplans
1 Bedroom		$348,000
2 Bedroom	1 Car space	$503,000
2 Bedroom + Study	1 Car space	$587,000
3 Bedroom	1 Car space	$876,000

Prices as at 21 October 2008.

Ray White Sunday Auction Results

See Courier Mail blog

• Felix: 342/26 Felix St, 2 bed, 2 bath, sold for $495,000.
• Festival Towers, 1901/108 Albert St, passed in $450,000
• Festival Towers, 3508/108 Albert St sold prior to auction, reported at $555,000 or $445,000??
  
• Charlotte Towers, 1502/128 Charlotte St, 2 bed 2 bath, passed in on vendor’s bid of $420,000
• River Place River Terrace House: 1/82 Boundary St was passed in at $1.35 million, now listed at $1.5M
• Skyline, 12/30 Macrossan St, three bedroom unit passed in at $900,000, now listed at $1,240,000
  
• Aurora Tower Penthouse: 651 and 656/420 Queen St passed in at $2.4 million, now listed at $2.6M
  
• Soho, 416/8 Cordelia St, 1 bed, South Brisbane was passed in at $280,000
• SoHo, 615/8 Cordelia St was passed in for $465,000, looking for offers above $500,000
  
• SoHo, 108/8 Cordelia St passed in at $505,000
• Euro, 1308-2-6 Manning St, South Brisbane, 2 bed 2 bath, passed in at $400,000
• Trilogy, 336/51 Hope Street, Spring Hill, 2 bed, 2 bath passed in at $540,000, sold after for $550,000 (vendor was off the plan owner who had paid $595,000)
  
• Stradbroke Tower, 74/2 Goodwin St, Kangaroo Point passed in at $875,000
• 1/24 Brisbane Street, St Lucia, sold for $414,000
• 6/211 Baroona Rd Paddington, 2 bed, 1 bath, sold for $431,000
• LeftBank, 64/35 Buchanan St, West End, passed in at $1.15 million

"Hundreds turned out to the convention centre on Sunday to see 80 properties offered for sale as part of the Ray White Property Auction Spectacular. There was a wide range of units and houses was on offer but properties sold under the hammer for prices well below what would have been expected six months ago.
Chief auctioneer Philip Parker said he pleased with the lacklustre clearance rate of almost 30 percent but said those who sold at auction realised they were not going to get what they thought their property was worth before the economic downturn. He said while no-one was happy with the current economic climate, sellers realised if they wanted to move a property they had to meet the market.
``Out of those that sold today, only one buyer didn’t go down on their original (minimum) price,’’ Mr Parker said.
He said the vendors who didn’t budge, didn’t get a sale. Negotiations are continuing on several properties offered for sale." http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/publicproperty/index.php

Meriton Soleil to be Released Soon

"Thank you for your email enquiry regarding our brand new 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments soon to be on sale. Selling off the plan the development is expected to be completed 2011/2012. We will be selling this development at the end of October or early November at our Display Centre at 488 Queen Street, Brisbane."

United States House Prices Far from Bottom

"One reliable proxy of housing values — the ratio of home prices to rents — indicates that in many cities prices are still too high relative to historical norms. In Miami, for instance, home prices are about 22 times annual rents, according to analysis by Moody’s Economy.com. The average figure for the last 20 years is just 15 times annual rents. The difference between those two numbers suggests that a home valued at $500,000 today might be worth only $341,000 based on the long-term relationship between prices and rents."

NY Times

No More NorthBank

The Premier axed the NorthBank development on the edge of the Brisbane CBD.

See Sunday Mail - it was front page news.

People in Casino Towers and the west side of Quay West are happy no doubt.

Doubtful Vision

"The developer behind the $900 million Vision Tower skyscraper on Mary Street is confident construction will proceed, despite the global credit crisis and economic uncertainty. Austcorp's ambitious 79-storey building will be the tallest in Brisbane when complete and is tipped to become an icon of the city's burgeoning growth. However, doubt has been raised over the likelihood of construction, following last week's collapse of the high-profile Empire Square development on Elizabeth Street that was sparked by the worsening world economic climate.

Industry sources told brisbanetimes.com.au a contingency plan had been devised if finance, which had been arranged but not officially confirmed, was to fall through.

Excavation of the building's basement-level car park is underway, but that could be as far as Vision gets if the credit crisis prohibits Austcorp's financial backing. The developer could sit on the site and operate it as a public car park until things improved, one source said.

However, Austcorp spokesman Terry Lee rejected the suggestion that Vision was in doubt, and said plans remained very much on track. "We have funding commitments (and) we are still working with the banks to finalise that documentation ... it will take time for us to do that," Mr Lee said.

"This is a normal process that all development projects go through."

Mr Lee acknowledged the turmoil in the global market, but would not be drawn on whether it posed a risk to the development.

"I know there are various rumours circulating in the market, there has always been talk about Vision one way or the other," he said. "We are progressing as we planned ... I don't want to be drawn on market speculation."

He would not comment on the possibility Vision would be delayed by the on-going credit crisis.

Austcorp had secured more than $12 million in apartment sales in the last quarter, which meant about 70 per cent of residences were now pre-sold with unconditional contracts. "Total apartment sales amount to $260 million ... Vision will ride out the current market turmoil to become Brisbane's landmark building when delivered in three to four years' time."

See Brisbane Times

Riverpoint Update

Riverpoint reports that it has reconfigured some of their apartment layouts:

"... we are about to release a whole new range of designs, in response to public demand. They incorporate a range of 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments, 3 bedrooms apartments and Sub Penthouses. These stunning new designs will be released to the Brisbane Property Market on Saturday the 25th of October."

"The new Super Penthouse will be built over floors 7 and 8 of Mosaic [note: this is not a direct riverfront building] and will raise the level of riverfront living to unexpected heights, in this rapidly evolving prestige location. The Super Penthouse will be spread over 700m² of exceptional living. It will also incorporate a 70m² ballroom/entertaining space on the 7th floor, complete with its own private lift to level 8 – The Owners Enclave."

West End Unit Owners are Concerned

"WEST END: Riverside apartment dwellers are banding together in a bid to give their direction on the future shape of the community. More than 30 residents from the Flow, Koko, Leftbank and Tempo complexes have met to discuss the need to build a sense of community in the area. Regatta Apartments body corporate chairman Paul Rees said they hoped to build a liveable community, not only for apartment dwellers but the whole of West End.

“We’re planning a series of regular events to build community in our area and the first event will be a breakfast in Riverside Park on Sunday, December 7 at 9am,” Mr Rees said.

He said they invited local, state and federal representatives as well as community groups and property developers to attend the breakfast to hear their ideas. Among residents’ concerns are building heights, closing Riverside Drive to public traffic and fast-tracking plans for a CityCat terminal. And Mr Rees said residents felt they were not consulted about increasing building heights.

“We are appalled at the suggestions of 15, 20 and 30-storey highrises being built here,” he said.

“We moved into this area believing the height limit would be seven storeys and we don’t want to see our area turned into a concrete jungle,” Mr Rees said.

He said a CityCat terminal and a reliable bus service on Montague Rd were important to give residents adequate public transport. Mr Rees said they supported redevelopment of the old riverside industrial areas as long as it was on a “human scale” and integrated with the established community of West End, “rather than creating a concrete barrier between West End and the river”."

See City South News

River City and Oaks - Again!

I saw this on a bulletin board:

"Remember the controversy of kicking all those tenants out of Charlotte Towers??? Well... guess what... its happening again, but with River City.

The Oaks has send letters to all of their tenants telling them that they must leave because their apartments will be turned into short term accom... BUT... and thats a big but because the Oaks as NOT INFORMED any of the owners that they are kicking out tenants so that they can convince owners that they could get more money from short term accommodation."

See this post.

I would be careful and do a complete due diligence before buying in an apartment in a building managed by Oaks.

Predictions and Guesses

A lot of people seem to think that it is the end of the world as far as property investment is concerned. These are my thoughts.

Facts:

• Interest rates are going down
• There is low unemployment in Queensland
  
• There are few vacant rental properties, and rents are still increasing in Brisbane
  
• According to REIQ and RP Data, medium prices have fallen less than 3% in the past 6 months, and over the past year prices have still increased
  
• Property is still selling. For example, a three bedroom apartment is Admiralty One sold in less than a week. At auctions in Mooloolaba this weekend, which has been a tough market, there were 2 two bedroom apartments that had bids of more than $1 million: Oceans 503 had a highest bid of $1,200,000; and Sirocco 604 had a highest bid of $1M.
• Banks are still lending money, but they have tighter lending requirements
• For most of Brisbane, there are very few delinquencies.
  
• In outlying areas (such as Forest Lakes and Springfield) and low quality bulk highrise marketed to investors (e.g., Charlotte Towers, and other recent Devine buildings), there are distressed sellers who are selling for less than they paid.
  

Assumptions:

• Matusik, who is a very bullish property consultant, has the following assumptions in most of his presentations, but I am not sure how many of them will turn out to be correct (and some from his September 2008 presentation are already wrong):
• interest rates to drop by 0.5% in fiscal 2009
• $A remains high – above 85 US cents
• migration to oz remains high US economy has a mild recession, mild recovery in 2009
• demand for our resources continues
• share market settles down unemployment remains below 5% and wages growth remains constrained

Opinion and Predictions (Guesses?)

• Property in inner Brisbane will take longer to sell than over the past 3 years (e.g., time on market will return to a more normal period of time, from 15 days to 30 or 40 days).
• Prices for poor quality apartments will fall by 25%
• Prices for apartments that have their views destroyed (e.g., Charlotte Towers, 212 Margaret, River City, and some in South Brisbane) will fall by 25%
• Prices for apartments without carparks will fall
• Some new apartments for off-the-plan developments) are priced too high for what they are, and will have difficulties selling in the short term (e.g. Waters Edge, Empire Square, Vision)
• Anything priced over $6,000 per sqm will struggle to sell, unless it is really special
• Off the plan developments will not sell well until completion -- in uncertain times, people do not want to make bets on the future, especially where the product being sold is intangible -- people want to touch and feel in uncertain times.
  
• Really good stuff will sell, and will not reduce in price by more than 5% (if at all)
• In February 2009, the market will pick up, but will not have growth of more than 10% per year for at least two years
• Due to lack of building today, things will get better for investors in good locations in the short term
• This year, my property portfolio looks better than may stock portfolio.

Future Brisbane Apartment Developments

There is likely to be a shortage of apartments in Brisbane in the near future. (This statement assumes that that is not massive unemployment in Brisbane.) There are few developments under construction, and so very little new stock will come onto the market in the next three years. What new stock remains unsold is either overpriced or poor quality.

Downtown Apartments

• M on Mary - completed - mostly poor quality 1 bedroom apartments, mostly unsold. Developer has ceased sales campaign and is running this building as short term accommodation
• Evolution - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - small and overpriced
• Skyline - completed - about 20 apartments unsold - building surrounded by other buildings, and generally overpriced
• Aurora - completed
  
• Empire Square - cancelled
• Trilogy Tower - status uncertain - in presales, with planned completion in 2012 - both hotel rooms and expensive apartments
• Vision - status uncertain - in presales, with completion not before 2012
  
• Soleil Tower - soon to start presales - 403 apartments, with completion about 2011
• French Quarter - early days, no planning approval
  

Inner City

• Flow (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
  
• Koko (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• Tempo (West End) - completed - about 5 remain unsold, will negotiate on price to sell
• IceWorks (Paddington) - almost complete - about 6 apartments remain unsold
  
• SL8 (West End) - under construction, with completion expected in April 2009, poor location
• Waters Edge (West End) - off-the-plan selling, overpriced and selling poorly, completion in 2010
• Ciana (Indooroopilly) - almost complete - about 25 out of 130 apartments remain unsold - good value
  
• Tennyson Reach - 2 buildings nearing completion, 1 building not far behind, 3 more buildings planned
• Newstead Waterfront - 2 buildings selling well off-the-plan
• The Mill at Albion - almost sold out, relatively expensive
• El Dorado Village - to be launched to the marketing in October 2008, completion likely in 2011
• Milton Union - received planning approval