End of the Down Cycle

If this chart from RP Data of past performance is any basis for predicting the future, then property values in Australia will start to rise again.  But note from the chart that in recent times, there have been more declining quarters in recent times then 10 to 15 years ago.

Brisbane Transaction Volumes Increase!

As shown in the above chart from RP Data, Brisbane transaction volumes for houses and apartments jumped recently.

But the Brisbane property market is still well below its peak.

There has been negative annual value growth over the past five years for Brisbane property.

And no growth over the past year in Brisbane.

Property or Shares?

According to RP Data, on a capital appreciation measure over the past decade, the past half-decade, and over the past three years, residential property has well and truly outperformed shares.  Over the most recent twelve month period shares have outperformed the housing market.  Property has less volatility than shares, but less liquidity.

Ten Percent Under Water in Queensland

"Ten percent of Queensland homes are currently worth less than or equal to their purchase price while 36 percent are worth more than double the purchase price.  At the same time a year ago, 5.3 percent of homes were worth less than or equal to their purchase price and 39.3 percent of homes were worth more than double their purchase price.  These results highlight the growing impact of the continued underperformance of the Queensland housing market."

From RP Data Accumulation Report, June 2012 Quarter (Report released September 2012)

Brisbane is slightly better than the Queensland statistics.

No significant improvement: RP Data

Summary of RP Data report:

Capital city home values increased by 0.6% in July after increasing by 1.0% in June

·         Capital city dwelling values increased by 0.6% over the month of July 2012.  Dwelling values are down -0.6% over the first seven months of 2012 and down -2.4% over the twelve months to July 2012.  Home values remain -5.9% below their historic highs across the combined capitals with falls from the peak ranging from -11.5% in Brisbane to -2.9% in Sydney.
·         Looking at value movements across broad price segments in the market to June 2012, the premium housing market is recording the largest falls (down -3.4% over the year) while the broad ‘middle market’ has been the most resilient with values falling by -2.0% and the most affordable suburbs have recorded value falls of -2.9%.

Sales activity showed a slight improvement in May however, there has been no significant improvement to date despite recent interest rate cuts

·         Estimated sales volumes are currently -14% below the five year average nationally and -13% lower across the combined capital cities

·         Compared to volumes in May 2011, sales volumes are currently -4% lower nationally and across the capital cities.

Rents continue to improve in certain areas and across specific product types while yields continue to trend upwards

·         Capital city house and rents have increased by 3.0% over the 12 months to July 2012

·         Gross rental yields for houses have improved from 4.0% last July to 4.2% currently and for units they have increased to 4.9% from 4.6% last year.

Vendor discount levels and time on market are trending lower but remain at elevated levels

·         Based on private treaty sales, it took an average of 60 days to sell a house in the capital cities in June 2012 compared to 68 days at the same time last year. 

·         Vendors are now providing an average discount of -7.2% from their initial listings price, at the same time last year the average vendor discount across the capital cities was recorded at -7.6%

The number of homes for sale has been easing however, on an historical basis they remain at quite high levels

·         RP Data is tracking around 296,000 unique houses and units that are available for sale across Australia; that’s about 9% higher than at the same time last year.

·         New listings are actually -14% lower than at the same time last year.

·         More than half of the total listings are located in the non capital city markets despite the fact that only 35% of sales take place in these locations.

Economic data flows remain mixed

·         Headline inflation is at 1.2% and core inflation is at 2.0% and trending lower.

·         The Australian economy grew by 4.3% over the first quarter of 2012.

·         The unemployment rate increased from 5.1% in May to 5.2% in June.

·         Consumer confidence for July 2012 showed that optimism was outweighed by pessimism however, the Index increased by 3.7% over the month.

·         First home buyers accounted for 17.8% of all owner occupier finance commitments over the month.

·         Overall housing finance (ex-refi’s) are up 2.8% over the year while refinance commitments are up 7.5% over the year.

·         Private sector housing credit continues to grow at record low levels of just 5.1% over the 12 months to June 2012.

·         Dwelling approvals were up 10.2% in June 2012 compared to volumes a year earlier.

Slow Growth For Property Values

Some extracts from a recent SMH article (and the SMH is usually pro-property, because its biggest advertisers are real estate agents):

''Realistically, anybody looking to build up wealth and equity in their property needs to have a long-term view. They're not going to be accumulating equity in their property in the current conditions, or over the next couple of years, very quickly,'' Mr Lawless said.

Christopher Joye, an executive director of Yellow Brick Road Funds Management, predicted that over the next 10 years, house price growth would be about half what it had been in recent decades.

''For the last 20 years or so house prices grew by nearly 8 per cent a year, however over the last four years they've only grown by 2 per cent per annum,'' Mr Joye said. ''Over the next 10 years we only expect house prices to track household incomes and we project that disposable household income should grow by about 4 to 5 per cent per annum.''
 See SMH

Budget to Impact Property Prices

Australian residential property will now be less attractive to foreigners after the Federal Budget last night.  As a large number of foreigners buy apartments off-the-plan in Queensland, this market for new apartments will be impacted by the changes, and the impact is negative.

The Government will remove the 50 per cent CGT discount for non residents on capital gains accrued after 7.30 pm (AEST) on 8 May 2012. The CGT discount will remain available for capital gains accrued prior to this time where non residents choose to obtain a market valuation of assets as at 8 May 2012. This measure would affect capital gains relating to taxable Australian property (e.g. capital gains from Australian real estate or interests in Australian land rich entities) which are realised by non-residents who would otherwise be eligible for the CGT discount (e.g. foreign individuals).

The Government will adjust the personal income tax rates and thresholds that apply to non residents’ Australian income. From 1 July 2012, the first two marginal tax rate thresholds will be merged into a single threshold. The marginal rate for this threshold will align with the second marginal tax rate for residents (32.5 per cent) and will apply to all taxable income below $80,000. From 1 July 2015, the same marginal rate will again rise from 32.5 per cent to 33 per cent.
Source:  KWM

Casino Towers Auction Result

A sub-penthouse in Casino Towers (Apt 3803, 151 George St), recently sold at auction for just over $800,000.  This was a large two bed apartment, about 130 sqm internal.  It faced East, and did not have river views.

The owner/vendor purchased this apartment in August 2006 for $875,000, and so lost money.

The first owner purchased this apartment off the plan from Devine for $840,000 in 2005, and so over 6 years, this apartment went down in value.

Brisbane Apartment Capital Growth

Extract from a recent article by Tim Lawless from RP Data:

"Another recent trend has been the superior performance of the unit market relative to houses. Over the first five years [2001 to 2005] average annual growth was recorded at 8.7% for houses and 6.2% for units, over the last five years [2006 to 2011] the figures have been 4.4% pa and 5.5% pa respectively. The results reflect the fact that affordability has become an issue and people are focusing on cheaper housing options. The results also reflect changing lifestyle patterns and a greater acceptance of unit living, particularly within inner city areas of our major capital cities.

If recent market conditions are anything to go by, the residential housing market is likely to show lower levels of capital gains in the coming years compared to the longer-term historical trend. It is important to note that historically housing has been a long-term asset class which has appreciated at a slow pace over a long period of time. In recent years big spikes in growth rates have seen people more prepared to speculate on short-term value growth. Given the recent data it looks as if the housing market fundamentals are reverting to "normal" market conditions after a period of higher than normal growth rates."

Extent of Losses

RP Data reported recently that Brisbane apartments in 2011 lost value of 6.5% (when looking a medium sales prices of apartments that actually sold in 2011).

Let's assume Mr Investor purchased a Brisbane apartment on 31 December 2010 as an investment for $485,000.  Assume that he borrowed 80% of the purchase price, including stamp duty.  Stamp duty is $14,850.  So the total purchase cost, including legal fees and bank fees, is just over $500,000.  Mr Investor put in $100,000 of his own money, and borrowed $400,000.

That apartment, if it went down 6.5% in value, is now worth $453,475.  That is a capital loss of $46,525.

So Mr Investor has had a capital loss of over 46% in one year.  That is the risk of leveraging.  A small decrease in value means a large capital loss where there is a leverage situation.  (If Mr Investor had to sell, he would pay over $10,000 in real estate agent fees, making his capital loss even greater.)  If values decrease further, Mr Investor will be completely underwater.  I suspect that there are many apartment owners in Brisbane who have little or no equity left.

Price Growth Predicted for Brisbane

"There is solid price growth of 16% tipped for Brisbane" for housing by 2014, according to QBE.

Growth Slows in last 5 years

"Over the past ten years capital city home values have increased at an average annual rate of 6.8%, however it has been a tale of two distinct five year periods: the boom times during the first part of the decade and more subdued growth recently. ...

The recent superior performance of units as opposed to houses continues today and is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns. In particular, first home buyers and young professionals are likely to be much more attracted to an inner city unit rather than a house 20 plus kilometres from the city centre, especially if they work centrally and they also work long hours.

Overall the data highlights the impact of the property 2001-2004 ‘property boom’ which has well and truly lifted the annual growth rates across the first half of the decade. The two recent growth phases (ie 2007 calendar year and 2009/2010) were much more sublime compared to the meteoric rate of growth early in the new century. Looking to the future, with housing credit growth constrained and affordability a barrier to market entry, property values are likely to grow at a slower pace and the likelihood of large spikes in value growth over a 12-24 month period as witnessed at times during the past decade is less likely. Basically, property value growth fundamentals are largely returning to normal conditions after being abnormal for much of the last decade. "

Source: RP Data

House Price Crash

This is a good article on property investment, and points out some of the risks of off-the-plan purchases and dealing with developers.

House Price Crash

Skyline Apartment Prices Fall

It is not a surprise that the value of apartments in the over-hyped and over-marketed Skyline Towers are not holding up. For example, a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartment sold for for $755,000 in 2008 off-the-plan. It is now listed for sale at $698,000, including all the furniture. This apartment is 142 sqm, and is rented for $850 a week. The apartment itself is a good size and good design, but is crowded out by a bunch of other buildings.

Some other examples:

• Apt 204 sold for $835,000 in 2008; resold for $755,000 this year
• Apt 393 sold for $840,000 in 2004 off the plan; resold for $800,000 this year
• Apt 401 sold for $970,000 in 2007; resold for $925,000 this year.

Capital Gains and Losses

According to Rismark, the median capital return to property owners since 1990 has been 7.8% per year.

Over the last 20 years, 9.3% of all home owners traded their property for a loss (note that these are pure capital returns, and ignore the rental income that you would have got along the way). This is also gross of all transaction costs, so you can be sure that the net number is higher. Ipso facto, about 90% of owners realise positive gross capital returns on their homes before accounting for rents and costs.

These returns reflect the change in the capital value of a home over time. What they do not tell us is what the home owner’s actual equity, or geared return, would have been. We can comfortably assume that the equity returns are far higher (likewise the losses for the one in 10 folks who get unlucky).

This analysis excluded gross rents, which are currently around 4% to 5% per annum. It also ignores all transaction costs, which sum to around 1% to 2% per annum for the average home owner who stays in a property for seven to eight years.

Source: Chris Joye in Property Observer

Capital Growth

The potential for future capital growth remains the number one incentive for Queensland property investors, according to new research from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ conducted buyer and seller behaviour research late last year which found capital growth was the top reason for buying an investment property in Queensland for 74 per cent of buyers.

The next most common reasons to buy investment property were to fund retirement; for negative gearing purposes; as a means of deriving an income stream; or because they believed it offered a better long term return than shares or super.

Capital Growth

In December's Australian Property Investor magazine, there is a chart from Collier's that lists average capital growth and average hold years for certain Brisbane apartments, as at August 2010. The capital growth period and methodology to produce these figures is not disclosed:

Casino Towers - 5.9%, 3.7 years average hold

Aurora - 5.4%, 3.6 years average hold

Felix - 5.25%, 3.8 years average hold

Quay West - 4.9%, 5.1 years average hold

Festival Towers - 2.3%, 3.9 years average hold

M on Mary - 1.1%, 2.9 years average hold

Charlotte Towers, 0.9%, 3.5 years average hold.

My guess is that the hold period is calculated from when the off-the-plan contract is signed, not when settlement takes place.

Off-the-plan investors in Devine's Festival Towers and Charlotte Towers have clearly lost money. A word of warning for investors in Devine's Hamilton Harbour. Devine's Casino Towers has done ok, but that is unlikely to be repeated now that Jupiters is building a massive hotel across from Casino Towers that will block much of this buildings river views (but not the western sun). Out of this group, my pick would be Quay West -- only 132 apartments, with a long hold period and good capital growth, never to be built out views.