Does the RBA think there is a bubble in the housing market in Australia?

Actually, for the past year or two, house prices haven’t done anything much at all. They’re up in some parts of the country, down in others and, interestingly enough, the two regions where house prices have been weakest are Queensland and WA. Given the nature of the resources boom that’s building up, it’s hard to believe that they’re going to see chronic weakness over a long time. I think the story for recent weakness is probably that they’ve got some indigestion as a result of the previous upswing.

But, as we see that unfold, we continue to see arrears rates on mortgages very low by global standards – 50 or 60 basis points. ...

So, you know, that’s probably not top of my list of worries. I think there are significant issues to do with housing values, but I think they are as much social, really, as economic, and I won’t go into that today; there’s not time. But I think – the other thing I’ll say is that it’s quite often quoted very high ratios of price to income for Australia, but if you get the broadest measures, a country-wide price and a country-wide measure of income, the radio it about 4.5 and it hasn’t moved much either way for 10 years. And that is higher than it used to be, but it’s actually not exceptional by a global standard as far as I can see.

Quote above is from Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, in London in March 2011, when asked if Australian residential housing was a bubble. He should know. Commentary by Chris Joye here.

Reaction to The Economist article

The Economist reports that Australian house prices are 56% overvalued.

Reaction:

Chris Joye on ABC's PM program and Yahoo

See Australian Property Bubble

Ponzi Borrowers

Extract from The Australian:

"LOCAL property investors have become "Ponzi borrowers" in a market 40 per cent overvalued, according to a Morgan Stanley strategist.

In a bearish note to clients this morning, Morgan Stanley strategist chief strategist Gerard Minack warned Australia's housing "bubble" could be pricked should banks tighten credit or "loss-making" middle-class landlords start to sell.

He argues owner-occupiers are in too much debt and investors are riskily relying on capital gains to repay their loans and interest repayments.

Compounding the problem is "ill-advised policy", such as the government's first home-buyers grant, which has combined to make Australian houses "40 per cent above fair value", Mr Minack says.

"Buying an asset that's over-priced never ends well," he said. "The real return on residential property over the next decade is likely to be negative, in my view."

On the positive side, Mr Minack said the most plausible trigger for a correction in the Australian housing market -- broad-based jobs losses -- doesn't appear likely in the near term. This means big price declines in the near term "seems low".

See The Australian for the full story

Australian House Prices Fall

"Aussie Dwelling Values Fall After 17 Consecutive Monthly Gains

30 July 2010 RP Data – Rismark Home Value Index Release Capital city dwelling values down 0.7% in month of June with no growth over June quarter Largest fall since April ’08 Rest of State dwellings also realise no growth in June quarter After 17 consecutive months of solid growth, dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities recorded their first monthly decline of 0.7% (seasonally-adjusted) in June according to the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index. This was the largest monthly fall in home values since April 2008. The June outcome follows on from a clear trend in the decline in monthly seasonally-adjusted growth rates in Australia’s capital cities over February (+1.0%), March (+0.9%), April (+0.6%) and May (+0.3%)." "Despite the recent moderation in capital gains, the risk of a dramatic decline in Australian dwelling values remains remote. According to Mr Lawless, “As the RBA has independently confirmed, arguments in favour of house price “bubbles” remain, in my opinion, overstated. Australia’s housing market has a structural shortage of roughly 200,000 homes, which has been substantiated by the National Housing Supply Council. While the inventory of unsold homes has risen of late, our Market Activity Index suggests that new listings activity will slow over the coming months. And although average time on market and vendor discounting have also expanded with the weaker conditions, these remain in line with historically reasonable levels.” “If we saw blow-outs in average time on market, re-listings, and vendor discounting, it would set off a few alarm bells. This, however, is not currently the case” Mr Lawless said." Brisbane apartment prices did ok. Brisbane Apartments - medium prices Month of June (indicative) - up 1.2% Quarter - up 1.9% Year to Date - up 5.7% Year on Year - up 5.9% Medium price over quarter - settled sales - $380,000 Brisbane Apartments - medium prices Month of May - up 0.9% Quarter - up 1.6% Year to Date - up 4.5% Year on Year - up 7.9%

Negative Views

"For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to remain flat or fall.

SENTIMENT among Australian property investors is turning increasingly bearish, according to the latest Investor Pulse poll of investors conducted by Colmar Brunton and BusinessDay.

For the first time this year, the number of investors expecting house prices to remain flat or fall outweighs those who see prices rising. The fundamental reason for the shift in sentiment is a dawning belief that Australian housing is in a ''bubble'' that at some point will burst and return to historic levels of affordability.

When asked about recent comments by famed US fund manager and property bubble expert Jeremy Grantham - who described Australian and British property as the only two of 34 bubbles he had studied that had not yet burst - 43 per cent of investors agreed that reversion to the mean would involve considerable pain. Only 25 per cent of investors disagreed with the bubble diagnosis and 32 per cent were undecided."

For Full Story and Chart, see Domain

How many bubbles?

There has been much discussion recently that the Australian housing market is 30% or more overvalued and is a bubble. However, recently, a respected stock analyst says that the stock market is way over valued, and that the Dow will drop from 10,000 to 1,000 soon. If that is the case, it is better to be in property than stocks (although cash may be better still!)

See Reuters.

Bubble?

Is there a housing bubble in Australia?

See this article from The Trump and also this article.

See also comments on the RP Data blog and Domain.

Also:

"SQM Research founder Louis Christopher says vendors have "not yet woken up to the reality of the new market".

"There are fewer buyers out there. When houses are selling the best way to sell is at auction. But in a slower market, that's not the best way because you're not going to get as good a result."

"There are listings everywhere. We're in a situation now where buyers are backing away, but there are still people trying to sell. They're not going to get the prices they had hoped for, and it's going to be disappointing for them."

Christopher says that over the rest of the year, there will be an oversupply of stock in the market, which will put downward pressure on prices.

Additionally, he says property investors wanting to sell should have made their move in the first four months of the year. Now, he warns, they may have missed their chance."

See Property Market Has Cooled from SmartCompany