Sunday, October 26, 2014

What does the future hold for Brisbane apartments?

My advice to those considering buying in a high-rise apartment block in Brisbane -- don't buy off the plan and don't buy for two years.  Why -- prices are likely to fall.  My reasoning:
  • There are a very large number of new apartments being built, which will settle in about two years.
  • Interest rates are likely to increase by then.
  • Rental vacancies will increase and rents will decrease as these new apartments come on to the market.
  • Banks will make it hard to get a loan.  My guess is that they will only fund 70% of the valuation.
  • The valuations are likely to be less than contract price.
  • Many people will be unable to settle.
  • Prices will therefore decrease, at least from the prices that new off-the-plan apartments are currently being sold for.
  • Second tier second hand apartments will be impacted as a result.  Why buy a old apartment in Charlotte Towers or Festival Towers, that have few redeeming features, when you can buy a similar sized apartment with a similar view in a new building for a similar price?
  • Apartments in some locations, and in some buildings (e.g., direct riverfront, larger apartments),  will suffer less negative impact.

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