Raptis Goes Bust

Gold Coast and Brisbane developer, Raptis, went into administration today. Also, the developer's $700 million Hilton Hotel redevelopment in Surfers Paradise was put into voluntary administration this week. See CM

Brisbane Rentals

It is rental season in Brisbane, and there is strong competition for apartments. Many people are delaying a buying decision, and so are renting. Some renters have locked in long term leases, taking these apartments off the market for some time. Some investors have put their apartments into a short term letting pool for nightly "hotel" rentals, taking these away from the permanent rental market.

Rents for decent unfurnished two bedroom apartments are as high as $600 per week. One bedroom apartments in decent complexes are very popular and hard to find. Add $100 a week for a furnished apartment.

If you are looking to rent, here are some ideas:

• Ciana Indooroopilly, 2 bedroom rents range from $475 to $600 per week
• Parklands Sherwood, 2 bedrooms from $440 per week; 3 bedrooms from $540 per week,
• Fresh Toowong, 2 bedrooms about $500 to $550 per week
• Admiralty Towers One, which has large apartments
• Arbour on Grey, from $550 per week for a 2 bedroom
• Metro 21, has both furnished and unfurnished, and is not doing short stay rentals so the building is more stable and homely.

Also, have a look at this prior post.

Lawsuit Against Council over Brisbane Apartment Rates

BRISBANE unit owners have launched a Supreme Court challenge against the validity of the Brisbane City Council's rating parity factor scheme.

The scheme was introduced by Lord Mayor Campbell Newman in the 2008-09 Brisbane City Council Budget and has been strongly opposed by unit owners, particularly in inner city areas.

Paul Cassels and Darryl Penfold, the president and vice-president of the Brisbane Association for Rates Equity (BARE), filed documents in the Supreme Court in which they seek a court order declaring the new rates scheme unlawful and invalid. The action has been brought by Mr Cassels and Mr Penfold on behalf of all BARE members, who are owners of lots in community titles schemes in Brisbane.

Outside court Mr Cassels said the Lord Mayor had tried to set the rest of Brisbane against unit owners by declaring they were millionaire "penthouse owners".

He said that wasn't true and the BARE was made up of average people who were opposed to rate hikes of up to 500 per cent. "The actions of the Lord Mayor have been disgusting," he said.

Mr Cassels said he hoped the Lord Mayor would reconsider his stand before the matter had to go to a court hearing. He predicted the issue would be a major factor in the next state elections.

Mr Cassels said the parity factor was a controversial rating mechanism that dramatically increased the general rates on thousands of units and townhouses throughout the city along with commercial and retail strata title property.

He said while the initial impact of the scheme would be felt most in inner city and near city areas, the exponential value formula on which the scheme was based meant that every year more and more units throughout Brisbane would be automatically "caught." BARE has already been instrumental in a substantial re-working of the scheme.

However, BARE has made it clear that it wants the scheme dropped and the rates cap on owner-occupied CTS property (also removed last year as part of the parity scheme) reinstated immediately.

Source: Courier Mail

despite the reported gloom

"After an eventful year’s end, it’s difficult to see where residential property is heading into the new annum. Media reports daily on the poor state of the economy and the likelihood that things will get worse before they get better, yet some signals are conflicting. There are plenty of locations and sectors that still lack stock and it appears that landlords are continuing to get historically high rents despite the reported gloom."

"For those wanting to bag a bargain perhaps the best prospects lie in some of those previously difficult to enter suburbs such as New Farm and Tenneriffe. Buyers over $700,000 have been thin on the ground and tenants are finding rentals a bit pricey, so it seems demand in these golden suburbs is becoming a little tarnished. Keep your ear to the ground and you just might bag a winner, but remember to keep things in perspective. Look for capital growth over a reasonable three to four year horizon. You’re unlikely to make your killing over the next 12 months."

"Of a related nature, good opportunities are also evident in the current market to purchase resale apartments in near new and recently completed buildings on the Gold Coast at prices which are at a significant discount on both the original sale price of the unit and also on the asking prices of similar new units. In some instances, the resale price of apartments appears to be below replacement cost of a similar new apartment."

Source HTW

Apartment Prices Dip

See Brisbane Times

Brisbane experienced a mixed December quarter, with house prices rising 3.3 per cent and units backtracking 3.5 per cent. Unit prices during 2008 dropped 6.5 per cent and house prices firmed 0.4 per cent.

More Rental Properties

"The number of available rental properties in Brisbane will increase this year as investors struggle to offload their real estate assets and become "reluctant landlords" instead, one expert predicts."

See Brisbane Times

Property Game

A new property price guessing game, which is fun to play:  www.propertyiq.com.au

Property Promoter's Opinion

"Depending where you live, property values in your state would have grown a few percent or dropped a few percent overall. Of course we all know that the value of certain properties fell much, much more than that, some by more than 20%. And some segments of the market, in particular the higher priced properties, holiday properties and rural properties, markedly dropped in value. "

See Property Update for full report.

Rentals In Brisbane

It is rental season in Brisbane, and there is strong competition for apartments.  Many people are delaying a buying decision, and so are renting.  Some renters have locked in long term leases, taking these apartments off the market for some time.  Some investors have put their apartments into a short term letting pool for nightly "hotel" rentals.

Rents for decent unfurnished two bedroom apartments are as high as $600 per week.  One bedroom apartments in decent complexes are very popular and hard to find.  Add $100 a week for a furnished apartment.

If you are looking to rent, here are some ideas:

• Ciana Indooroopilly, 2 bedroom rents range from $475 to $600 per week
• Parklands Sherwood, 2 bedrooms from $440 per week; 3 bedrooms from $540 per week,
• Fresh Toowong, 2 bedrooms about $500 to $550 per week
• Admiralty Towers One, which has large apartments
• Arbour on Grey, from $550 per week for a 2 bedroom
• Metro 21, has both furnished and unfurnished, and is not doing short stay rentals so the building is more stable and homely

SL8 Opinion part two

I drove past SL8 today in West End. I was not impressed. Although still under construction, to me it looks like a cheap motel from the 1950s. All the railings for the balconies are metal pipe rails. So from the front, it looks very uniform with railings going the complete width from left to right on every floor, without a break. From the back, it looks even worse. You may not realise, but the apartments don't have closed hallways. The door opens onto a hall that is outside -- and with the same rails going along the whole length. So you will be exposed to the the rain, heat and wind as soon as you open your door. The building looks to me like a larger version of the motel where Martin Luther King was assassinated when leaving his room.

Riparian Plaza Resales

"BRISBANE: Unit prices in an an exclusive city residential tower continue to soar in the face of economic crisis, and cashed-up investors are lining up for a piece of the action.

The Riparian Plaza in Eagle St houses three of the inner-city’s most expensive residential properties sold last year, and their values were up 27 per cent compared to similar properties sold at the same time in 2007."

See City News

Tennis Anyone?

Mirvac's Tennyson Reach project sold extremely well to start, but sales appear to have stalled. There are six apartment buildings planned for the site, at Tennyson in Brisbane on the same site as the Queensland Tennis Centre. Although more than 65,000 tennis spectators attended the recent tournament last week, no apartments were sold during the event.

The first two apartment buildings on the site, containing 115 apartments released in June 2007, sold out in three days. Prices ranged from $943,000 to $4.9M. These two buildings should be read for occupancy in the next 5 months.

The third building, currently for sale off the plan, has 92 apartments. Released in December 2007, 70 apartments still remain for sale. Originally marketed with a minimum price of $805,000, the minimum advertised price has now been reduced to $698,000.

According to the AFR, Mirvac plans to release building 4 at the end of 2009.

There are more than 10 resales listed on RealEstate.com.au. These include:

• 3 bed on 6th floor, listed at $1,820,000 (155sqm of internal living plus 15sqm of balcony)
• 3 bed on 5th floor, listed at $1,795,000 (174sqm of internal living plus 21sqm of balcony)
• 3 bed on 4th floor, listed at $1,395,000 (169sqm of internal living plus 21sqm of balcony)
• 3 bed on 2nd floor (so restricted river views I suspect), listed at $1,515,000 (162sqm of internal living plus 15sqm of balcony)

My guess is that these prices will drop, as a number of owners will not want to or can't settle, and rents for these apartments will be luck to be more than $800 a week.

New Top End Mooloolaba Apartment Building

Signature 87 by Juniper. Prices said to range from $5.98 million to $6.995 million. So the top end can't be too bad if Juniper releases this. Completion due late 2010. According to the AFR, David Kortlang from Juniper said investment in Mooloolaba and ocean front properties remainded strong. But the AFR said only 36 new units (from an inventory of 818 new units) sold on the Sunshine Coast in the six months to November 2008.

Building Height 11 levels (including retail)
Apartment Areas Typical Apartment 465 m²
- Internal 333 m²
- Terrace 132 m²
Number of units 10 (one per floor only)
Security Exclusive level access with private lift lobby on level, CCTV, proximity sensors, panic button and secure car park entry
echnology Full home automation including C-Bus lighting,
Kitchen Finishes Miele appliances, Professional gourmet kitchen with scullery (butlers’ kitchen), Home automation control centre
Lounge Room 50” concealable television
Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms, 42” concealable television in Master
Bathrooms 4 Bathrooms + powder room
Media Room 80” fixed television panel, Projector, Surround Sound, Touch screen control
Pool Private pool terrace with exclusive lap pool (per unit)

Top End Not So Top?

"Brisbane's prestige property market will 'languish' this year as former corporate high-flyers rein in their spending, according to experts."

"Holiday homes have also taken a hit, with PRDnationwide Maroochydore beach apartment specialist Alexander Veal saying the number of listed properties had increased by about 15 per cent in recent months."

See Brisbane Times

Brisbane Apartment Hotspots

"National Property Research managing director Matthew Gross said the area surrounding Sherwood in Brisbane's west will also be a future hot spot.

The combination of continued population growth and an undersupply of residential stock will lead to increased prices in the long-term, Mr Gross said.

Pradella's large-scale Parklands at Sherwood development is also likely to underpin growth, with stage one of the $150 million project nearing completion.

"As new, quality stock hits the market, it is anticipated the median rental figures for apartments in Sherwood will also grow significantly, providing investors with exciting purchasing opportunities," Mr Gross said.

See Brisbane Times

Shoe Box Apartments

"Property analyst Michael Matusik believes there is a large segment of the real-estate market who would prefer to live in a compact unit of 50 square metres or less."

See Brisbane Times

Vultures Turned Away

Re/Max Integrity principal Nerina Sportelli said: “We have buyers ringing up and asking about the sellers. Are they bankrupt? Do they need to sell? There is a perception among buyers that prices will fall, but I don’t think that will happen,’’ she said. Real Estate Institute of Queensland managing director Dan Molloy believes that median house prices have only “softened by a few per cent’’ since the bumper results of the September quarter.

http://city-north-news.whereilive.com.au/news/story/buyers-forced-to-dig-deep-to-secure-dream-homes/

Market Wrap

Market Wrap from Residex

"Saying we have passed the worst is a brave call in an environment where the world economy is in such a poor state. The risks that remain for us are that unemployment increases significantly and immigration is slowed as a consequence of government reacting to the higher level of unemployment. The balance to this is the lower interest rates which will reduce defaults while people continue to hold down a job."

"As a blanket rule you should stay out of the Gold Coast market, Western Australia and Brisbane units unless you are very well researched. These markets will be ripe for the picking late in 2009 when we should have passed their bottom but currently they look as if the risks are too high and the bargains will not yet be presenting sufficiently. Sellers will still be holding unrealistic expectations."

Reports 7.06% growth in Brisbane apartment prices in 2008, and 10% rent growth for same period. Sales volume drops from 16,000 to 12,370 Brisbane apartment sales (comparing 2007 and 2008 years).

Construction Costs

An interesting presentation regarding construction costs, including pipeline of developments, is located at:

www.mitbrand.com.au/

Prediction from RP Data

"2009 may also finally see the return of investors to the market. With 2008 seeing little to no value growth and rents continuing to rise, property investment is becoming more and more attractive with each passing month as yields improve and interest rates fall. Current market data shows that the cash rate is anticipated to fall below 3% by April 2009 and these much lower rates will translate into more and more properties representing positive cash flow opportunities. The significant falls on the share market witnessed during the last 12 months should also help to see investors return to the property market as they look to move away from the volatile share markets and return to bricks and mortar investment." Source, Property Pulse, 9 January 2009

Poms Moving to Oz

See article in The London Times.

SL8 Update

"With more than 90% of the 1, 2 & 3 bedroom apartments sold, limited opportunities remain to invest in SL8’s West End apartments. The two bedroom apartment final release is now selling from $565,000-$975,000."

Source: SL8 website

Hamilton Harbour Website

Devine has new content on its Hamilton Harbour website, www.hamiltonharbour.com.au

"1, 2 & 3 bedroom apartments $295,000 to $1.59M

• two commercial towers commanding the Kingsford Smith gateway
• two residential towers providing city and river views for many apartments and huge al fresco balconies for all
• an urban village in between, where residents and office occupants will mingle among boutiques, bars and restaurants they call their own

Beyond their own boundary, Hamilton Harbourites have easy strolling access to the dining, shopping, cinemas and City Cat terminal which already make this riverside enclave one of Brisbane's most attractive new places to live and work.

At the upstream end of Northshore, Brisbane's grandest and most ambitious ever urban renewal initiative, Hamilton Harbour is a landmark development which can place you at the centre of the city's astounding future growth. As a resident, tenant or investor, Hamilton Harbour demands your serious attention."

River City Apartments Fire

Queensland fire fighters say overhead sprinklers saved an inner-Brisbane apartment block from serious damage. More than 30 residents were evacuated from the River City apartment block around midday, after a fire started in a couch on a balcony of the 15th floor of the building.

Fire fighter Dave Sutch says overhead sprinklers helped contain the fire, but also caused some damage. "We have severe water damage on the 15th floor and it's leaking through to the 14th floor," he said. Residents were not allowed back into their apartments for more than two hours while fire crews secured the building.

ABC News

This building is being run by Oaks as a hotel, but I suspect that it does not have hotel standard fire safety standards.

Gold Coast Apartments in Trouble

"The unit market on the Gold Coast is investor driven. There s currently a good selection of high-rise units available for sale in Broadbeach, Southport, Coolangatta/Kirra and Surfers Paradise. A majority of the units currently available for sale include both developer stock and resale stock within new developments. A large proportion of the resale apartments are being offered for resale by distressed owners and hence have asking prices which reflect a reasonable discount on both their original sale price and also the price levels of the balance new apartment product in new unit projects. In this respect, it is very difficult to attract sales of new apartments given the more competitive pricing structure of the resale apartments. A large proportion of new apartment product on the Gold Coast is sold to interstate and to a lessor extent, overseas investors at price levels which are considered to be in excess of local market values. It will take some time for these stock levels of units to be absorbed especially given the current soft market conditions. Some purchasers, who bought ‘off the plan’ 12 to 24 months ago, are foregoing their deposits before settlement on new product rather than absorbing the loss in market value on settlement."

"It appears there will be more pain to come however for how long and to what extent is difficult to predict. The property market of 2007 is a distant memory with current market values being more reflective of values achieved in 2006."

Source HTW

Stockland Residential Outlook December 2008

Stockland reports that:

• The top end of the residential market is very soft.  Very fragile, and oversupply issues.
• First home owner segment stronger due to interest rate cuts and government grants
• Choice between owning and renting starting to favour owning, as rents are rising and interest rates are falling
• Investors returning to the market due to interest rate cuts, rising rents and poor stock market performance.   Investors make up 10% of Stockland buyers at present.

See Report (alternative site for Report) 

The Mill at Albion

The AFR reported that sales at FKP's The Mill project at Albion were strong, with 120 out of 132 apartments sold, at an average of $6500 a sqm.  For smallish apartments, where most of the two bedroom apartments don't have an external view from the second bedroom, and there is only a galley kitchen, and the overall aspect and views are poor, it seems that FKP has done well here.  I wonder how happy purchasers will be when this project is complete?

Stockland and FKP

"FKP intends to continue  discussions with Stockland, to ascertain whether a transaction in the best interests of FKP securityholders can be consummated."

See FKP Media Release from December 2008

Insignificant Price Decease in Brisbane for Apartments

See RP Data Rismark Indices released at the end of December.

Brisbane Apartment prices decreased by 1.25% for October quarter and deceased by 2.45% October 2008 year to date. Not a huge decrease.

"In 2009, Mr Lawless believes the affordable segments of the property market will offer the best opportunities for capital growth.

“This will be somewhat of a turnaround for the property market where over the last four years; it has been the affluent properties which have

generally provided the best capital growth.”

“Market activity is already showing signs of increasing at the lower end of the pricing scale,” he said."

See also Press Release

Gold Coast

From The Australian

"THE boom in beachfront real estate on the Gold Coast is well and truly over..."

Article About United States Housing Bubble

Extract:
"I'm ending my discussion of this issue in 2004, but throughout the years since, a number of analysts have emerged on both sides of the housing bubble question. So I do not claim to be comprehensive in my review. I just wanted to call attention to a few of the more prominent analyses that crossed my desk when the housing bubble first caught my attention.

There were many economists who did see it coming, but there were many others of equal or greater prominence and authority who repeatedly insisted that there was nothing to worry about. Under the circumstances, ordinary investors can hardly be faulted for taking actions that unwittingly fueled the bubble and are now having disastrous consequences for themselves and the nation."

Who Saw The Housing Bubble Coming?

Fortitude Valley

"On the unit front, Wooloowin, Annerley, Moorooka and Camp Hill all priced under $350,000, are tipped to give good returns next year. The surprise additions of inner-city Fortitude Valley and East Brisbane are also considered affordable areas for unit buyers.

"For people who are priced out of the city itself, these areas are a good option," Mr Kusher said.

"Fortitude Valley in particular has got a really good rental yield at the moment and stock there is quite varied. Overall, rental growth is starting to improve, so for those people who have perhaps lost money in shares, more investors will be attracted back to property."

See Brisbane Times

Predictions for 2009

At the beginning of 2008, I made a number of predictions in this post.

The predictions were mostly wrong!

The Brisbane apartment market did not grow significantly in 2008, and took a minor step backwards. At present, there are fewer buyers and more sellers. For some off-the-plan developments, no sales have been made for months. Second tier buildings and buildings with more than 200 apartments have not done well.

So I will be careful with my predictions for 2009:

I still believe that quality inner city apartments in Brisbane will do well in 2009. Provided there is no significant unemployment and provided that foreign students continue to come to Brisbane, vacancy rates will remain low.

In 2008, only four new inner city apartment buildings completed and settled. These were Evolution (over priced), M on Mary (which has mostly 1 bedroom apartments, and the developer is now in liquidation), Flow at West End and Iceworks at Paddington. In 2009, no new large inner city apartments will settle. Groundwork has started on Mertion's Soleil and the Trilogy Tower project, but these will no complete until 2012. Mirvac's Tennyson Reach project will settle two buildings in 2009, and FKP's SL8 at West End will also probably complete in 2009. So not much new stock.

So here are some predictions for 2009:

• The price of a good quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane, with views, will range from $780,000 to $850,000.
• The price of an average quality 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment in Brisbane will struggle to pass $550,000.
• Average rent for an unfurnished 2 bedroom apartment will rise to $600 per week.
• Investors will return to the market, as interest rates are falling and rents are rising.
• There will be more action in the inner suburbs than in the city. Prices for quality apartments in areas such as Indooroopilly and Toowong (where there is a train station and regional shopping, close to education facilities) will boom. By the end on 2008, it will be hard to find a good quality 2 bedroom apartment in these areas for less than $600,000.

• The Gold Coast apartment market will tank even more. The Sunshine Coast apartment market will remain steady.

Meriton's 43 Herschel Street

Here is a floor layout, as submitted to council by Meriton. It shows 10 apartments per floor, with a mix of studios, 1 beds and one 2 bedroom apartment. The apartments have no balcony, and are small. The 1 bed hotel suites in Trilogy Towers are larger than the 1 bedroom apartments in this proposed building.

More photos and images here.

Stockland Downgrades Residential Portfolio by $105M

"He said two factors in the past two months had prompted the downgrade of its residential inventory.

He said there had been a "massive downturn" in the top end of the residential market.

Secondly, the company had made a "conscious decision" to sell some high-end projects outright at a discount to their carrying value.

Mr Quinn said: "The first home buyers are well and truly back because it is now cheaper to buy than to rent."

Stockland had started to reconfigure some high-end projects to create more affordable products.

"Traditionally, 20-25 per cent of our market is first home buyers. They now represent 45 per cent of our total buyer profile." He said sales had picked up nationwide."

See The Australian

West End Overpriced?

What would you pay for a new 2 bedroom apartment at the southern end of West End, with nice views of a factory roof, surrounded by industrial buildings, walking distance to nothing, an irregular bus a few times a day, brown carpets and "a minimalist look"? How about $579,000 in Ferry Road, West End? That just seems extremely high to me. Buyers beware!

Rate Increases For Brisbane Apartments

"A ceiling on rate increases for Brisbane's CBD unit owners under Brisbane City Council's controversial new rates policy will be debated at today's last council meeting for 2008.

Lord Mayor Campbell Newman promised to introduce the policy from the third quarter of the 2008-09 financial year, which starts on January 1.

The scheme was proposed at June's Brisbane City Council budget and - suggested lifting the general rate paid by unit owners so they pay an equivalent rate to home owners in a property of the same value."

Brisbane Times

Time to Buy

According to the NY Times: See New York Times for this interesting story.

Meriton on Herschel Street

Meriton has applied to build a second apartment building in Brisbane. It is located at 43 Herschel Street, Brisbane, near Roma Street Station. It is 73 stories, with over 400 apartments, and a basement 10 floors underground parking.

Gold Coast Not Golden

I am always surprised to read commentary about Gold Coast apartments which is so positive -- when the market is very dead, nothing is selling, and prices are falling for what is selling. For apartments that are holiday rentals, most owners will receive low returns, not enough to cover outgoings. Yet, agents still talk the market up. Here is a more realistic story:

"December 3rd, 2008

GOLD Coast real estate may fall a further 20 per cent over the next year, according to one of the city's leading property forecasters. Author of the Midwood Report Bill Morris said while the Gold Coast's median house price fell by only 3.7 per cent in the September quarter, it marked the start of a long and consistent drop in property values that could last 18 months.

Mr Morris last night told a group of property watchers at a seminar unveiling his November-quarter Queensland Investment report his gloomy projection was based on the skewed correlation between house prices and rental returns.

Mr Morris said that while rental returns languished around 4 per cent, house prices would continue their downward slide. "Because of the increase in house prices over the past five years, which has been about 100 per cent, despite declining demand, it has meant rental returns have gone down significantly and are now unacceptably low," said Mr Morris. "They are currently about 4 per cent gross which is stifling the investment market. Really, 5 per cent is acceptable and to do that you can either increase rents by 20 per cent or have a decrease in house prices by 20 per cent."

Investors would only return to the market once rental returns became more attractive, he said.

Mr Morris's analysis came on the same day that AMP chief economist Shane Oliver also predicted a rough ride for Gold Coast property. Mr Oliver yesterday told The Gold Coast Bulletin he expected property nationwide to fall an average of 10 to 15 per cent, but predicted the Coast may fare worse. "I see coastal locations where people had a holiday home coming under pressure," said Mr Oliver.

Mr Morris expected a market recovery would take 12 to 18 months."

Gold Coast Bulletin

Not all Doom & Gloom

"THE economics of Australia's $3.3 trillion housing market is widely misunderstood, with sensationalist claims that a housing bubble caused the global credit crisis and that Australian house prices will fall by 30 per cent to 50 per cent. In fact, the latest RP Data-Rismark Index results show that Australian house prices declined by just 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to October this year, and increased during the most recent three months.
...

In Australia, the hyperbolic predictions of economists Steve Keen and Gerard Minack that house prices will fall by 30 per cent to 50 per cent have been relentlessly recycled in newspapers and purportedly credible programs such as 60 Minutes and The 7.30 Report.

The doomsayers' claims are based on the assumption that housing affordability is at an all-time low.

They dismiss the fact house prices are determined by supply as well as demand (affordability is a demand-side factor) and conclude that prices must fall by some arbitrarily large margin. Keen likes to shock by quotingstatistics about the rise in household debt without acknowledging that debt-servicing ratios have remained unchanged thanks to vastly lower real interest rates, the emergence of two-income households and higher real incomes.

Recent analysis by the Reserve Bank of Australia has comprehensively demonstrated that housing affordability is not at an all-time low. According to one of the Reserve Bank's benchmarks, the representative household in June 2007 had more real disposable income left over after purchasing a home and servicing a 90per cent mortgage than at any other time since June 1982.

The bank also found that the representative household could afford to buy 33 per cent of all homes in June 2007, which, although less than the historical average of 45 per cent, was markedly better than the 13 per cent of homes available to it in June 1990.

Importantly, the Reserve Bank's present 4.25 per cent cash rate is considerably lower than the 6.25 per cent rate that existed in June 2007. Since mortgage rates peaked at 9.6 per cent in August, the Reserve Bank has pushed them down to about 6.7 per cent, with markets predicting that they will be less than 5 per cent by mid-2009. At the same time, house prices have not appreciated...."

"The Reserve Bank believes Australia's housing market is leading the US by three years, having entered into its downturn in 2004. There is also a consensus between the Reserve Bank and most economists that the doomsayers' predictions will be proven wrong. A striking counterfactual is the 1990-92 recession, when unemployment hit 10.9 per cent yet house prices rose by 2 per cent a year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The media would do well to interrogate sensationalism."

Source: The Australian

Water's Edge Update

From a Pradella newletter:
"Despite Brisbane's uncertain property market, buyer confidence remains strong for Waters Edge with an unprecented $40 million in sales made since its launch. Forty-eight of the 221 apartments have sold to a mix of investors and owner-occupiers, as buyers look to quickly capitalise by purchasing at the unique site."

"Consisting of two eight-storey buildings, named Drift and Reach, one, two and three bedroom apartments are available, priced from $540,000.In addition to the apartments, there are 32 premium absolute riverfrontage apartments called the Riverfront Collection that have a total area of between 188-332m2, consist of 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms plus a separate multi-purpose room and study, priced from $1.795 million are for buyers searching for the ultimate in inner-city luxury living."

October 2008 Property Index

"Claims that the Australian property market would in 2008 experience a major downturn have been proven incorrect based on the most recent findings of the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Property Value Index, which in October again showed that Australian capital city property prices had increased for the second consecutive month. ...

Based on RP Data-Rismark Index results, RP Data head of research Tim Lawless believes that the doom and gloom merchants have misunderstood the fundamentals and the diversity of the Australian residential property market by predicting that Australia was headed for a market-wide implosion in 2008.

“The facts are that over the past 12 months Australian property values have declined by just 0.8 percent which is a phenomenal result when compared to the S&P/ASX 200 index which reported a decline of 40.5 percent,” Mr Lawless said. “The October RP Data-Rismark Index results reinforce my suggestion that the Australian property market has moved through the bottom of its cycle.” ...

For savvy investors the timing to enter the market is now better than ever according to RP Data’s Tim Lawless – “For investors who are willing to go against the flow, buying conditions are exceptionally strong and yields are improving every month,” he said.

“The fundamentals underlying the Australian property market are extremely robust. Investors need to take into account current supply constraints, infrastructure delivery, immigration, vacancy rates, rising rents and expectations that interest rates will continue to fall. These are the basics that should fuel capital gains for investors.”

Melbourne, Brisbane & Sydney
In the 10 months to October 2008, Melbourne residential values have been flat (+0.2 percent) while Brisbane (-1.7 percent) and Sydney (-1.9 percent) are off slightly. However, during August, September and October 2008 Melbourne (+1.1 percent) and Sydney (+0.5 percent) property values have increased consistent with the overall market recovery following the Q2 contractions.

See Press Release and Details

Value of Brisbane Car Park?

A car park in down town Brisbane appear to add about $60,000 to the value of an apartment. A two bedroom apartment without a car park is virtually unsaleable.
FindACarPark is a good site to look at to see the rental value of a car park in Brisbane - seems to be about $400 to $500 per month to rent. When I looked, no car park was listed for sale in Brisbane.
See also this site.

Brisbane In Summer

www.brisbaneinsummer.com.au