Differences in Apartments

A recent Adjudicator's decision regarding Admiralty Towers II highlights a factor that buyers and valuers sometimes overlook -- that is, some apartments have different rights and facilities than other apartments in the same building. In Admiralty Towers II, there are two swimming pools -- a lower pool and a pool on the top floor. Each pool also has a gym. The top floor pool also has a roof sundeck.

The bylaws of the building state that the owners of lots 126 to 193 may use both pools and gyms. The owners of lots 1 to 125 may only use the pool and gym on the lower floor, and cannot use the top floor pool, gym or sundeck.

A resident challenged this bylaw. The challenge failed. These kind of bylaws are not unfair or unreasonable. See Ref 0915-2010 issued 23 December 2010.

Thus, the value of an apartment on a higher floor should be more than a similar an apartment on a lower floor -- not just because of the views, but because the apartment has access to more facilities.

The moral of the story: when buying or renting, check to see if any apartments have access to exclusive use facilities. Make sure you are doing a like for like comparison when looking at recent sales data.

Gold Coast Collapsing

Story from the AFR on Friday last week - "Banks judge Gold Coast apartments as vulnerable".

"Westpac Banking Corp has a particularly cautious view, especially of luxury properties worth more than $3M on the Gold Coast, which is described as a key area for 'additional risk management focus'. There are hundreds of apartments on the Gold Coast priced at more than $3M. At the Oracle development at Broadbeach, there are at least 50; at two other projects coming to completion - Juniper's Soul and Brookfield's Hilton - there are more than 100."

Story from The Australian today: "Gold Coast High Rise Stress Underestimated"

"MAJOR bank Suncorp estimates that less than 10 per cent of buyers are defaulting on several major apartment projects on the Gold Coast.

Gold Coast property agents have claimed the estimate was extremely optimistic. ...

"They'll be celebrating in the streets if it's only 10 per cent default," one Gold Coast agent said.

"There's a lot of rumours around about settlements, but it's all looking very slow."

Soul has been on the market for five years and, while the market boomed for the first three of those years, the global financial crisis cut the value of these units substantially."

Rental Returns - from RP Data Property Pulse

"... During the five years to September 2010, the Australian residential property market has experienced a variety of conditions, modest growth conditions in 2005/06, rapid appreciation in 2007, falling values in 2008 followed by another strong growth phase in 2009/10. Despite the range of conditions over this five year period, overall property values have increased at the average rate of 7.1% year on year. ...

In dollar terms, house values have increased by a total of almost $140,000 over the last five years and unit values have increased by approximately $123,000. ...

Over the same period rental rates have also ramped up and, similar to the capital gain performance, the growth has not been uniform from year to year. Between September 2005 and the end of 2008, rental rates were typically trending upwards at the rate of almost 11% year on year. In 2009 capital city rents increased by just 0.9% and we are now seeing the first evidence of rental growth once again returning to the market. ...

For units, Darwin has again recorded the strongest value growth during the past five years (99.8%) followed by Adelaide (69.6%). Unit rental growth has well and truly lagged in Sydney (27.8%) and to a lesser extent also in Brisbane (44.8%).

Unit rental growth over the last five years has also recorded significant increases in Darwin (84.0%) and Perth (61.7%). The three largest cities have recorded the lowest levels of rental growth at 39.6% (Melbourne), 40.6% (Brisbane) and 42.8% (Sydney). ...

Overall the results highlight the virtues of having a long-term hold strategy in relation to property purchases with property values, rents and subsequently yields having historically proven to increase over time. Over the next 12 months we are anticipating fairly flat growth in property values however, we do expect that rents and yields will improve. With an insufficient supply of homes, upwards pressure will remain on housing prices over the long term, however price inflation will be offset by affordability constraints which will hamper prospective purchaser’s ability to enter the residential market.

As a result, competition for rental accommodation is likely to intensify and weekly rents will rise. These conditions highlight just how imperative it is that Government’s find a solution to housing supply issues, as the national graphs highlight, over the last five years conditions have been such that either property values have increased, rental rates have increased or both have been climbing. Supply is clearly a large contributor to these prevailing conditions."

Undervalued Brisbane apartments

The Courier Mail had an article today that suggested that over reliance on property databases by real estate agents is leading to pricing discrepancies, particularly for some apartments. Reading between the lines, the suggestion is that some agents don't know the market as well as they think. The article states that "... the reales values of many homes - especially older, well positioned apartments - are being artificially curtailed. This is part of the reason why older properties remain so much cheaper than comparable newer stock."

My views on some of the inner city apartment buildings, based on recent listing prices and recent sales achieved:

• Admiralty Towers One - undervalued - large riverfront apartments, with an excellent new onsite manager
• Admiralty Towers Two - possibly undervalued - large riverfront apartments, but onsite manager has gone bankrupt and some owners hostile to body corporate committee leading to inefficient building management
• Admiralty Quays - at value - beautiful riverfront building, but apartments are smaller than Towers One and Two
• Riverplace - at value - great location on riverfront with large balconies, but lesser quality than Admiralty buildings, and larger less personal building
• Skyline - overvalued - poorer quality building surrounded by other buildings
• Evolution - significantly overvalued - located on a freeway, sold mostly to Asian investors, small poor quality apartments in badly managed building
• Casino Towers - overvalued - good views from some apartments, but these apartments face West and views likely to be built out when old State Library site redeveloped into multistory tower
• 212 Margaret - overvalued - located on edge of construction site
• Charlotte Towers - probably overvalued - many apartments listed for sale and not selling
• Festival Towers - probably overvalued - poor quality Devine building, likely to be further surrounded by new development and remaining views built out
• Quay West - undervalued - large apartments with Gardens and river views never to be built out, well run building with good finances
• Grosvenor - at value - large apartments with Gardens and river views never to be built out, low turnover of apartments
• Felix - overvalued - smaller apartments looking with little privacy
• Metro 21 - mixed - great difference between apartments in this building - smaller well run building with much better value than the Oaks run buildings, but one bedroom apartments in this building are not great
• Aurora - overvalued - large, poorly run building

Valuer's Report

Herron Todd White Valuers report in their August 2009 report that the Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast apartment markets are at "the bottom of the market". They report no change in any market indicator factors over the past month.

Property Promoter's Opinion

"Depending where you live, property values in your state would have grown a few percent or dropped a few percent overall. Of course we all know that the value of certain properties fell much, much more than that, some by more than 20%. And some segments of the market, in particular the higher priced properties, holiday properties and rural properties, markedly dropped in value. "

See Property Update for full report.

Which Buildings Have More Owner Residents?

The Brisbane City Council has released a list (in relation to rate increases) that includes the number of owner occupied apartments in Brisbane apartment buildings. The full list is here. My view is that the higher number of owner occupiers in a building, the better the investment in that building.

Community Title Scheme Name	Number of Units	Number of Owner-occupied Units	Percentage Owner Occupied
ADMIRALTY QUAYS	173	59	34%
ADMIRALTY TOWERS	151	49	32%
ADMIRALTY TOWERS II	193	71	37%
ALLEGRO APARTMENTS	117	16	14%
CASINO TOWERS	214	34	16%
CENTREPOINT	51	20	39%
CHARLOTTE TOWERS	415	29	7%
CORONATION RESIDENCES	48	22	46%
CUTTERS LANDING - CUNNINGHAM	33	14	42%
CUTTERS LANDING - FLINDERS	84	53	63%
FELIX	254	48	19%
FESTIVAL TOWERS	401	51	13%
KOKO APARTMENTS	110	36	33%
LEXICON APARTMENTS	89	16	18%
OXYGEN	191	34	18%
PARK AVENUE AT SOUTH BANK	56	32	57%
PARKLAND BOULEVARD	400	168	42%
PRECINCT TOOWONG	46	19	41%
QUAY WEST BRISBANE	136	28	21%
QUEEN STREET 570	127	9	7%
REGATTA APARTMENTS	59	17	29%
RIPARIAN PLAZA APARTMENTS	48	23	48%
RIVER PLACE APARTMENTS	314	76	24%
SKYLINE APARTMENTS	185	37	20%
THE AURORA TOWER	472	128	27%
THE GARDENS	107	23	21%
TRILOGY RESIDENCES	121	8	7%
WILLAHRA TOWER	106	16	15%

August Property Value Index

RP Data Rismark Index for August

"The national end of month property indices report released by RP Data & Rismark International confirms that the supply and demand imbalance currently being experienced in the Australian property market has placed a floor under housing prices, resulting in minimal value falls.

Based on the analysis in the report, this is most evident in the metropolitan areas around the country where record population growth has not been accompanied by new dwellings to satisfy the housing demand.

According to RP Data National Research Director Tim Lawless the property market has proven to be remarkably resilient with national dwelling values remaining positive over the 12 months ending August 2008. Over the three months to August 2008 there was a modest decline with property values down by just 0.96 per cent over this period.

Mr Lawless said the recent figures should put to rest claims that Australia’s property market is headed for a crash. “In fact, values are holding relatively firm particularly when compared to the benchmark equities S&P/ASX 200 Index which dropped by 19 per cent between January and August,” he said.

One of the most interesting findings in the indices release today was the convergence of the capital city market dynamics over the past six months which revealed that all capital cities recorded slightly negative growth; no particular city was significantly out of step with the others.

According to Rismark International’s Dr Mathew Hardman “Clearly, the observable phenomenon of the two-tiered markets in Sydney and then in Melbourne and to a lesser extent in Brisbane and Perth has disappeared ”

“Market movements are now similar across all metro areas rather than value falls being isolated within the mortgage belts. This balancing can be attributed to the squeeze the more affluent markets are experiencing due to the turbulence in the financial and equities sector.

“Looking towards the next six months, strong excess demand in most capital cities is creating a floor under property values, making large falls unlikely,” Dr Hardman said. According to RP Data, with population growth projected to remain high and interest rates falling, the demand/supply imbalance is expected to protect the market from any major falls in property values. Rismark International’s Dr Hardman believes that unemployment is not a major factor driving property prices; affordability, excess demand and market momentum are far more significant he said.

“Although unemployment is rising, unless it grows rapidly to significantly greater levels, eg 6 or 7 per cent over the next couple of years, excess demand will eventually outweigh affordability constraints and begin to push property markets upwards again, probably by the second half of 2009.”

Brisbane

• Brisbane has actually fallen more than Sydney & Melbourne over autumn & winter: on average by 3 – 5 per cent. The median house value is now $455,146 and the median unit value is now $326,606.
  South East Queensland continues to be the strongest population growth region in Australia. Such strong demand for dwellings will continue to place upwards pressure on values over the medium to long term.

See http://www.rpdata.com/news/rp/20081001_media.html

Brace for the BOOM!

Monday, August 11, 2008

That’s the front cover headline of the September 2008 issue of Your Investment Property magazine. BIS Shrapnel predicts Brisbane will grow faster than any other capital city with the median house price to jump from the current $422,000 to $515,000 by June 2011. That’s a huge 22% increase in just 3 years!

Underpinning this strong growth forecast are several key factors:

• supply and demand – last year 90,000 people migrated to Queensland from interstate and overseas. Approximately 44,000 new dwellings need to be built next year to accommodate this rapid growth, however, only 33,000 are expected to be constructed, resulting in a shortfall of 11,000 new homes
• higher rental yields – rents have risen 15-20% during the past 12 months. Independent property analyst Michael Matusik predicts rents will rise by a further 17% in the next 18 months
• lower interest rates – we should see the first official rate cut in a month or two, with several more reductions to follow during the next two years

The bottom line is that regardless of whether you are buying as an Owner-Occupier or Investor, now is the time to secure your next property before prices take off again!

- Brian White, Senior Property Consultant, Prime Property Sales (Qld) Pty Ltd

RP Data Rismark Update

Property Value End of Month Index Release, 31 July 2008

"Most markets fall slightly in value through winter but U.S. experience won’t happen here. The RP Data/Rismark International end of month property indices report released today confirms what most people know to be true already; we are seeing modest declines in most property markets. However, RP Data National Research Director Tim Lawless said that the good news for buyers is that property is not a homogenous market and if you look at the flipside of this downturn, it may well prove to be the ideal buying window as speculation that interest rates may stay on hold and rents continue to surge.

Brisbane Property Market
• Brisbane house values have fallen on average 2% and 0.2% for units over the last six months, versus an average rise of 7.5% over the past 12 months.
• Prices of home units in the inner and south eastern suburbs have held and in many areas risen as prospective buyers choose a unit over a house due to affordability."

BIS prediction

Mr Mellor said home buyers should not expect a big decline in prices by the end of the year. "There may be a fall in prices before the end of the year, but it won't be more than 1 or 2 per cent," he said.

He added that it was a good time for buyers looking to upgrade to a bigger home.

"With a 10 per cent increase in the amount of people looking to rent, a figure that is expected to increase, it is a great time for investors." The financial markets are factoring in an interest rate cut, possibly as early as next month, but even without it, Mr Mellor predicted an upturn, so long as rates did not rise again.

"Common sense will win out in the end," he said. "Buyers will realise that all the fundamentals that make it a good time to buy are there."

See http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24158947-25658,00.html

Find Me A Home

Residex have launched a new service, FindMeAHome.

From my quick review, it is not very user friendly or accurate.

Using a map interface, it lists properties for sale. First, the list is not comprehensive. Second, it lists properties for sale that have been sold.

When selecting a property, it gives an indicative value. For the apartments that I looked at, the indicative value is not very accurate.

For example:

• A two bedroom apartment in Quay West - indicative value given as more than $1,348,000. This apartment would be, at best worth in the $800,000s.
• A one bedroom apartment in Charlotte Towers - indicative value given as more than $731,000 to $837,000. This apartment would be, at best worth $400,000 (most likely $360,000.)
• Casino Towers, Apt 3702, indicative value given as more than $1,166,000. This apartment recently sold at auction for $705,000.

There are many other examples, including for suburban houses. John Edwards has clearly got this wrong.

Valuer's Report

Herron Todd White's July Month In Review Report includes the following about South East Queensland:

Brisbane

"Our sunny market outlook has greyed somewhat after recent rate rises. The mixed signal from commentators has put a large percentage of investors on the back foot. A portion of those in the know continue to sing the South-East QLD song of praise, hitching their star to our increasing population and seemingly boundless potential, but other equally wizened souls note we are getting a bit big for our boots. Buyers do not have bottomless pockets, they venture, and the market is due to check itself. The confusion has also been noted by agents who are seeing different sectors performing at different speeds with no clear cut idea of how it will all pan out. ...

Historically, Brisbane has not been susceptible to dramatic market fluctuations, which means most punters are able to bear the brunt of change. This time may be different, however as the recent boom has been unprecedented for most and unless smart, developers may find the landing more bumpy than expected."

Brisbane apartments:

Rental Vacancy: severe shortage of available property relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend: Tightening
Demand for New Units: Fair
Volume of New Unit Sales: Declining
Stage of Cycle: Peak of Market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value: Frequently

Gold Coast

"Market conditions have slowed on the Gold Coast in the past 3 to 4 months, with agents generally reporting subdued levels of enquiry. Some agents have proposed that there has been as much as an arbituary 10% drop in market values which would almost cancel out gains achieved during 2007. It is difficult to ascertain the extent of the slowdown in the second hand property market with the reduced turnover of sales. Some sectors still continue to perform or hold their ground in light of the underlying economic issues. A good indicator of the market slowdown is the performance of new unit complexes, townhouses, and house/land packages. Marketing agents have reported a significant drop in buyer enquiry. Subsequently rates of sale have fallen. Developers are now in a position where they are offering incentives to “prop up” the fall in rates of sale.
...
Those that purchased off the plan in 2006/early 2007 to speculate on a new high-rise unit project, are now only realising that their purchase was in vain. Should they forego their deposit, the unit goes back into the sales pool further placing pressure on supply."

Gold Coast apartments:

Rental Vacancy: balanced market
Rental Vacancy Trend: Steady
Demand for New Units: Soft
Volume of New Unit Sales: Declining Significantly
Stage of Cycle: Declining Market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value: Frequently

Sunshine Coast

"We also are seeing incentives being offered and the return of ‘extraordinary marketing techniques’ to non-locals to help sell unit projects. Rentals for both houses and units remain strong and underpin demand with no suggestion that this is going to ease. Punters must also be concerned with the fluctuations in the stock market and some will transition back into property where there is strong rental support and long term potential for capital growth."

Sunshine Coast apartments:

Rental Vacancy: shortage of available property relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend: Tightening
Demand for New Units: Soft
Volume of New Unit Sales: Declining
Stage of Cycle: Bottom of Market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value: Occassionally

Housing Market Flooded in Brisbane, but Few Buyers

From The Courier Mail, 5 July 2008:

"STRESSED home owners and investors are flooding the market with thousands of houses but agents say they can't find any serious buyers for some properties.

As home mortgage lending in Queensland dives for the second consecutive quarter, the number of houses for sale is up 150 per cent compared with the same time last year.

There were 4750 new listings added this week - 1842 in Brisbane.

Almost 40,000 residential properties are listed for sale across the state, compared with 15,900 last year.

Auction clearance rates are suffering in the slowdown.

At yesterday's Ray White's corporate auction, just one of 11 properties was sold under the hammer. The three-bedroom unit in Casino Towers sold for $705,000.

It was a similar story last week, when 12 properties were put to market, and only one - a Norman Park home - was sold for $840,500.

The marketing agent for a prime residential site near the Brisbane River said a recent auction of the property failed to get any bids.

And the one buyer who showed some interest had now gone cold.

"Just finding anyone interested has been a problem - last year there would have been a handful," the agent said.

At yesterday's auction chief auctioneer Philip Parker said he was surprised when just two early bids were heard for an inner-city house.

"It's good real estate - you'd think you'd have more (bids) than that," he said...."

Prediction from BIS Shrapnel

Interest rate rises to stall residential property price growth in most centres despite record net overseas migration and a rising deficiency of dwellings.

Independent economic forecaster and industry analyst, BIS Shrapnel, expects all Australian residential property markets will experience marginal price increases in 2008/09 as interest rate rises halt price growth rather than force a downturn.

BIS Shrapnel is forecasting another interest rate rise to come through in September quarter 2008. Despite a further rate increase, the average cost of renting is set to rise much more than the cost of buying in 2008/09 and 2009/10, due to the undersupply of new housing.

REIQ Apartment Price Report for Brisbane - First Q 2008

REIQ March Quarter Unit Report:

Downtown Brisbane:
Median March Quarter: $450,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $449,755
Change over 1 year - 6.5%

West End:
Median March Quarter: $625,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $518,500

St Lucia:
Median March Quarter: $510,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $401,500

Indooroopilly
Median March Quarter: $425,000
Median 12 months to end of March 08: $401,750

From the Brisbane Times:

"REIQ chairman Peter McGrath said current figures reflect historical averages for the year's first quarter.

"Brisbane is coming down off a high, so to speak ... the market is simply returning to normal," Mr McGrath said.

Yet Mr McGrath conceded investor demand has cooled recently as servicing increasing loan repayments becomes more difficult.

"Investors appear to be staying out of the market until rents reach a level where they match the increase in interest rates and they are confident that the market has definitely stabilised," he said.

The trend has been felt hardest within the CBD, where apartments in complexes on Charlotte Street have remained unsold for four months.

"It is taking 30 days longer to sell inner-city apartments because investors are bowing out," LJ Hooker Brisbane Central principal agent Alexandra Rutherford said.

Prices have been scaled back accordingly Ms Rutherford said.

"We have had apartments priced at $480,000 reduced to $460,000 and some reduced to $420,000."

However, Mr McGrath warned real estate agents against judging the current market against last year's anomoly.

"I don't think some agents realised how good it was last year, thinking. it could last forever. Now we are just moving back to a more traditional market," he said."

Comment on Matusik

A reader comments on the Matusik post from earlier this week:

"I think the report misses some important trends, there are also quite a few factual errors.

For one, not ALL US houses mortgages are non-recourse, only a few states including California. MOST US houses mortgages are recourse. The biggest difference between the US and Australia is the commodity boom, but how long will that last?

Second, all the 0-down, interest-only mortgages are mushrooming in Australia as well. Australia also has stated-income loans which is no different from the US.

Second, he entirely misses the point of what commodity boom does to evolution of cities. If he concedes that the commodity (particularly energy) boom will go on for years, which argues for a booming property market, then it is the inner cities or places with good public transportation will benefit. However, he was presenting a sprawling suburban future that is completely impossible with oil price heading for the sky. He predicts that people will start commuting from Blue Mountains, it is just not going to happen if gas price is on the current track.

He is also completely off the mark in predicting a mild US recession. Many financial heavy weights including Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, George Soros etc have come out to say that this is going to be the worst recession since the Great Depression, which is a euphemism of saying Great Depression Episode II.

The funniest of all is, if he thinks everything is rosy, US will recover in 2009, and Australia's commodity boom will go on forever, why will interest rate FALL in 2009? Shouldn't interest rate fall because the economy is NOT doing so well???

I can understand that Matusik is always arguing that property can only go up up up because he is sponsored by real estate developers, but this report just looks way to biased, to the extent that he cannot even get facts right."

Matusik on Brisbane Property

Matusik, who is often engaged by developers to write reports that are provided to potential purchasers, states the following in a seminar given for Urban Pacific at Fernbrooke on 28 May 2008:

• one in three new apartment projects fell over in 2007. The attrition rate could be as high as 50% this year.
• the cost to provide new inner city apartments is much higher now than suburban detached housing. i.e. $575,000 for 2 bed apt (85sqm/1 car space) versus $385,000 for 3 bed house (225sqm/320 sqm allotment)
• overall today investors make up less than 30% of the market.
• 80% of detached houses are held by owner-residents as is 50% of our semi-detached product, whilst over 70% of attached product is owned by investors.
• nearly 70% of Australia’s attached dwellings is occupied by residents under 30 years of age

Brisbane Apartment Prices Still Increasing

"The RP Data/Rismark International end of month indices report released today confirmed that capital growth in the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne has flattened considerably during 2008. ...

RPData's Research Director, Tim Lawless, is confident that the supply side imbalance in the national housing market will see further property value increases over the next five years. “We expect low levels of housing supply to continue placing upwards pressure on housing prices over the long term. However in the short to medium term, demand side constraints are acting to slow the market. Most importantly, the current high inflationary environment is causing a high degree of uncertainty in the market which translates to low buyer and investor confidence. Cashed up buyers now have a large amount of leverage as a result of current market conditions especially now that properties are taking longer to sell and there are fewer buyers,” Mr Lawless said. “The best immediate opportunities can be found in Adelaide, Brisbane and Darwin, not to mention many of Queensland’s regional areas.”

Brisbane is also continuing to show solid growth in property values with overall growth of around 3 percent for houses and units during the first four months of 2008. The value gap between Brisbane and Melbourne is becoming wider as growth in the Melbourne market has slowed considerably. At the start of 2007 house values in the two cities were virtually on par, however the stronger value growth in the Brisbane market has seen Brisbane house values g g now 5 percent or $24,000 higher than Melbourne’s."

March 2008 Median Unit Price Brisbane = $344,247
April 2008 Median Unit Price Brisbane = $346,184
April year to date increase = 3.14%
April 12 month (year on year) increase = 18.12%
Days on Market April Quarter = 16 days
Yield - Brisbane apartments - March Quarter = 4.76%

See Rismark - RP Data report.

Ray White's Inner City Unit Report

Ray White's Inner City Unit Report 2007 has the following statistics:

Brisbane CBD (downtown area only) for apartments
Year 2007:
Number of Sales - 940
Median Sale Price - $445,000
Highest Price Sale - $4,700,000
% Brisbane Change - 4.5%
506 apartments sold between $250,000 and $499,999
188 apartments sold between $500,000 and $749,999
63 apartments sold between $750,000 and $1M

Year 2006:
Number of Sales - 817
Median Sale Price - $425,000
Highest Price Sale - $3,800,000
% Brisbane Change - 8.5%
486 apartments sold between $250,000 and $499,999
168 apartments sold between $500,000 and $749,999
40 apartments sold between $750,000 and $1M

Year 2005:
Number of Sales - 1,049
Median Sale Price - $392,000
Highest Price Sale - $7,370,000
% Brisbane Change - 11.5%
542 apartments sold between $250,000 and $499,999
181 apartments sold between $500,000 and $749,999
41 apartments sold between $750,000 and $1M