Home Equity

A summary from the recent September 2011 Quarter RP Data home equity report.

The highlights of the report are:

• Over the five years to September 2011, capital city home values increased by around 28 per cent.
•  Australian housing markets recorded value declines recently with capital city home values down 3.3 per cent from their October 2010 peak to September 2011.
• Properties in Queensland and South Australia have higher turnover rates; therefore equity levels in these states tend to be lower than in other states.
• Far North Queensland & the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have the highest instances of negative equity at 20.2%, 14.0% and 13.5% respectively. 
• The highest proportion of homes that are now worth at least double their initial purchase price is typically either regional and non-coastal, or capital city markets. 
• Capital cities have enjoyed long-term value appreciation and have proven to be less susceptible to ongoing value falls than certain non-capital city markets.

Buying Off The Plan

If you are buying an apartment off the plan in Queensland, whether in Brisbane or on the coast, you want to make sure that you buy the right apartment for you, at the right price.  At present, there are some great off the plan developments at reasonable prices, and there are others that are not so good or are overpriced. Why buying off the plan, get the right advice first.  Buy the ebook from Amazon Buying An Apartment Off The Plan in Queensland - A Guide For Successful Buying.

Sunshine Coast Not Investor Friendly

Property valuers Herron Todd White report that the Sunshine Coast is not investor friendly. High taxation, and no representation. Not a good long term situation.

"Holiday units are typically returning a gross yield in the vicinity of 7% to 7.5% however after management fees etc, the net yield would be in the vicinity of 5%.

One of the drawbacks of owning investment property on the coast continues to be the additional levies that are being charged by the Sunshine Coast Regional Council. these are charged on all non-owner occupied properties, even when they are holiday homes which are not rented. this leaves a sour taste in the mouths of investors, most of whom are not locals who don’t have the opportunity to cast a protest vote."

Source: HTW Report

State of the Market

Herron Todd White, a firm of independent property valuers, publishes a monthly report, called Month in Review. The most recent report includes the following information about the Queensland apartment market.

Volume of unit sales:

Brisbane: steady

Gold Coast: declining significantly

Sunshine Coast: declining

Stage of market:

Brisbane: bottom of the market

Gold Coast: declining market

Sunshine Coast: bottom of the market

Demand for new units:

Brisbane: fair

Gold Coast: very soft

Sunshine Coast: soft

Sounds like it may be a good time to buy an apartment in Brisbane, but definitely not the time to buy on the Gold Coast.

Discounting is rife

"Discounting was rife across the state, many vendors being forced to accept offers far lower than they would have last year, Mr Christopher said."Put simply, house prices are falling. The figures can't be disputed by real estate optimists any longer," he said.

"Buyers are now well aware of this and are, as they should be, taking full advantage of the situation by offering well below the asking price of a property.

"Vendors are always the last to know and it seems that many have not caught on yet. They are still personally affronted at the offers being made to them but the reality is, if they don't take today's offers, they risk getting even lower ones in a few months' time."

Mr Christopher said the magnitude of the decline differed in each region of Queensland: some areas were suffering a marginal decline, others an acute drop. He listed the Gold and Sunshine Coasts as the worst hit in the state. Property prices in both regions were predicted to drop by almost 25 per cent by the end of the year."

Source: Fairfax's Domain

Valuer's View

Valuers Herron Todd White's recent report says that, for the apartment market, the Brisbane market and the Sunshine Coast markets are both at the bottom of the market, whereas the Gold Coast market is still declining.

Sunshine Coast Troubles

There was an auction last weekend of a large number apartments in the Crowne Plaza Resort near Caloundra, at Pelican Waters. None sold. See story from AFR:

"Heavy discounts, a year to settle and a $5000 rebate were not enough to entice buyers to a liquidation auction on the Sunshine Coast yesterday. Reed Property Group released the final 36 units in its 2005-built Crowne Plaza Resort & Spa in a Helmsman auction, where all units are offered simultaneously to boost interest.

Despite bids on 30 of the 36 units none was sold, although post auction talks continued later yesterday. Reed Property chief executive Ken Reed said the market was soft. “It’s a buyer’s market. Conditions on the Sunshine Coast are not too different from elsewhere in south-east Queensland,” he said.

An opening bid of $65,000 for an 88 square metre one-bedroom unit was the lowest offer made. One of the 512sq m penthouses attracted a maximum bid of $600,000 after it was listed for $1.58 million. Kings Beach residents Deborah and Jeff Taylor said the event was “a fizzier”. “The marker is so depressed at the moment. Things are selling for prices you wouldn’t believe. There are so many units on the market around here at the moment,” Mrs Taylor said.

The $65 million tower has access to a Greg Norman-designed championship golf course, pools, tennis courts and a gym."

Month In Review

The Herron Todd White Month in Review report, issued each month, often has useful commentary. Some extracts from the September 2010 report:

"Importantly, do not read ‘relatively affordable’ as ‘secondary quality’. It is better to stretch the dollar a bit and buy a dodgy looking second had unit with good bones and quiet position in an area such as Ascot or Toowong, rather than a brand newie in the same areas that is the size of a bathtub and has full exposure to rail noise. The good thing with these units is that they always have a strong rental demand and some value-add potential if you get something that needs a little love.

... there are some areas that you should steer clear of.

The first that comes to mind is on the Redcliffe Peninsula and specifically high rise unit developments. A favourable council hell bent on turning the area into something beyond a sleepy seaside habitat went gung ho with developers to create a mini Surfers Paradise along the esplanade. The result was a number of multi-level unit projects designed to take advantage of the views and the natural attributes that usually have investors salivating. Unfortunately the suitors became a little too enamored and far too many projects came out of the ground, with many units snapped up by out of town buyers for prices well beyond the average local punters cashbook. The result - there is now a glut of these attached dwellings throughout the area. Some initial buyers have lost large money and given the abundant supply on the market and the near zero demand from well informed local buyers, the prospects of growth appear somewhat limited for some time at least.

Gold Coast

Overall market sentiment has remained very slow/ subdued over the winter months, with minimal market activity and some less than impressive sale results. Therehas been a significant drop off in the number of sales and selling prices, and fingers are crossed that demand will increase as the election is out of the way and the weather warms up."

The report then lists recent sales where the vendor has lost money.

The report also states that the Brisbane apartment market is "peak of market" and that the Gold Coast apartment market is "declining" but that the Sunshine Coast unit market is at the bottom of the market. This would suggest that it is best to buy on the Sunshine Coast, than in Brisbane or the Gold Coast.

Flat Market in Brisbane

In talking with people in the real estate industry in Brisbane recently, it seems to me that the market is relatively flat. At some open homes for houses in the $600,ooo price range, only 1 family will turn up for an inspection. Off the plan sales for apartments are, for the most part, slow. Prices are relatively stable for apartments. It is not a booming market at present. On the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, the market is very dead.

There are pending risks that may dramatically impact investment apartments in Queensland:

• higher interest rates
• risk of lower numbers of overseas students and tourists visiting Australia (including due to the higher Aussie Dollar)
• The review of the Australian Tax System, due within weeks, which will likely impact the treatment of capital gains for real estate, and probably recommend the removal of negatively gearing of losses from investment properties to offset income tax from income earned from other sources
• difficulties in obtaining investment loans, and the banks requiring a higher deposit for investment property loans
• increased school fees, which impacts the ability of many families wanting to invest in property
• increased body corporate fees and rates, making returns less
• poor performing vacation rentals and low vacation rental returns, often less than 2% net returns

Midwood Report

UNIT sales are leading an improvement in turnover within Brisbane's property market, with 260 deals in the three months ending November.

It compares with 174 the previous quarter. The sales show Brisbane's unit market is becoming balanced with only 13 months' supply, according to the latest Midwood Investment Report.

Report author Bill Morris said that with approvals already in place for shelved development sites, there was the opportunity to quickly reintroduce them to the market. The unit resurgence follows some improvement in the more prestige end of the housing market, which had been lacklustre for more than a year.

Courier Mail

A leading Queensland property expert says there is an oversupply of apartments for sale on the Sunshine Coast.

The author of the Midwood Queensland Investment Report, Bill Morris, says only 71 apartments were sold in the latest November quarter. He says the Sunshine Coast has many more apartments ready and waiting for sale than Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

"The current figures show there's about three years of supply sitting there in new apartments at the current take-up rate or demand," he said. "The Gold Coast has got around 18 months supply and Brisbane's even less. Brisbane's about 13 months supply. So Sunshine Coast has a lot more apartments for sale in terms of take-up or sales."

ABC News

Projects are falling by the wayside as developers struggle to obtain finance, Bill Morris said, and this is contributing to the housing supply demand deficit.

Source

Sunshine Coast Report

"The sectors where we have seen biggest falls have been based generally around discretionary/lifestyle properties. Certainly the upper price level homes and units fall into these categories. Instead of people selling their principal place of residence, they are selling the holiday house and subsequently we have seen a significant softening in the values. In some cases, these values have fallen well below replacement cost.

There is an interesting change in the gap between lower priced property and upper priced properties. For example, a property that was worth approximately $350,000 in say 2005, is now worth in the vicinity of $400,000. Whereas a property that was previously worth $1,300,000 in the same period is now worth $1,000,000. This gap has shrunk significantly, which would lead us to believe that something has to give. Whether that is the lower priced properties are to fall in values, or the upper price properties are to increase in values, is anyone’s guess."

Coolum

In an email from an agent, regarding White Shells (a development in the middle of nowhere):
"With this in mind, in the last 6 months we have reduced the prices of many White Shell apartments to meet the current market. Now is the perfect time to secure your dream beachfront property. For a snapshot of your new life make sure you visit our White Shells photo gallery."

With rent for a 2 bedroom apartment from $450 per week, I would hope that pricing would be no more than $550,000.

Coastal Apartment or Working Class House?

"There are few more iconic sea-change destinations than the Gold Coast, which has earned a reputation as the king of population growth in Australia.

But it's a long way short of being the king of capital growth.

Capital growth on the Gold Coast over the past five years has been half that achieved next door in downmarket Logan City, according to Real Estate Institute of Queensland figures.

The Moreton Bay region, a municipality that encompasses cheap mortgage-belt suburbs in Brisbane's north, has achieved considerably higher capital growth than the Sunshine Coast next door.

Within the Sunshine Coast municipality, the market leaders on capital growth are the railway towns in the hinterland (such as Beerwah and Landsborough), not the sexy coastal locations Noosa and Mooloolaba."

See Terry Ryder

Warning from NZ

"Sunshine Coast Remax real estate agent Michael Knights said the local housing market had dropped between 10% and 20% in the last 12 months, and the apartment market had been the hardest hit.

``A lot of the apartments that have been bought off the plans say 18 months to two years ago are selling for $100,000 to $200,000 less than people paid for them because there's just an oversupply."

See www.stuff.co.nz/4861361a20975.html

No Sunshine for the Coast

"Among the states, hardest hit appears to be Queensland, where 4000 new apartments are going begging: 1000 on the Sunshine Coast, more than 700 in both Townsville and Cairns, and far more on the Gold Coast.

It is believed many of them have fallen into the hands of the financiers, given that most developers make just 20 per cent profit on a project."

The Australian

At least 4000 new apartments are still unsold in Queensland and most of them are believed to have fallen into the hands of their financiers.

Bankers are now asking what to do with the properties, and the problem has prompted property experts to run seminars on how to deal with hotel resorts and the unsold million-dollar beachfront apartments that many now control. Mortgagee sales remain prominent on the Gold Coast, where 1383 new high-rise apartments were for sale in the November quarter. Only 37 were sold in the three-month period.

That compares with 965 for sale in the November 2007 quarter, when there were 142 new high-rise apartments sold.

The Australian

New Top End Mooloolaba Apartment Building

Signature 87 by Juniper. Prices said to range from $5.98 million to $6.995 million. So the top end can't be too bad if Juniper releases this. Completion due late 2010. According to the AFR, David Kortlang from Juniper said investment in Mooloolaba and ocean front properties remainded strong. But the AFR said only 36 new units (from an inventory of 818 new units) sold on the Sunshine Coast in the six months to November 2008.

Building Height 11 levels (including retail)
Apartment Areas Typical Apartment 465 m²
- Internal 333 m²
- Terrace 132 m²
Number of units 10 (one per floor only)
Security Exclusive level access with private lift lobby on level, CCTV, proximity sensors, panic button and secure car park entry
echnology Full home automation including C-Bus lighting,
Kitchen Finishes Miele appliances, Professional gourmet kitchen with scullery (butlers’ kitchen), Home automation control centre
Lounge Room 50” concealable television
Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms, 42” concealable television in Master
Bathrooms 4 Bathrooms + powder room
Media Room 80” fixed television panel, Projector, Surround Sound, Touch screen control
Pool Private pool terrace with exclusive lap pool (per unit)

Regional Queensland - from RP Data Property Pulse

Queensland
Cairns – listings currently sit at a level 25% higher than the same period last year, this result represents the greatest annual increase in listings across the period 2005 to 2008.
Townsville - listings have increased by 34% during the last year, the greatest annual increase in listings during the last three years.
Sunshine Coast – listings have recorded an increase of 4% during the last 12 months, which represents the smallest annual increase in listings at any time between 2005 and 2008.
Gold Coast – listings have increased by 390 or 24% over the last 12 months which represents the greatest annual increase in listings during the last three years.

All highlighted Queensland regional areas except for the Sunshine Coast have recorded their greatest percentage increase in listings during the last year which suggests the level of stock on-the-market far outweighs the number of buyers currently in the market.

These results again highlight that Australia is in the midst of a buyers market. For those who have the capacity , there is a large amount of stock on the market and few buyers. It is felt that the best window of opportunity to buy will be during the next six to nine months with purchasers continuing to be in the best possible position to negotiate as supply in the market far outstrips current demand.