Queensland Coastal Apartments - Capital Losses

RP Data recently issued is "Coastal Housing Markets - December 2013" report.

"Across the Sunshine Coast, median house values are typically most expensive in the Noosa region and most affordable between Caloundra and Maroochydore. Sunshine Beach has the most expensive median house value ($894,733) and Currimundi the most affordable at $400,631.

Median house values across the Gold Coast and Tweed Coast tend to be most expensive at the northern end of the Gold Coast. Across the region, the most expensive houses are found in Surfers Paradise ($962,563) and the most affordable are in Labrador ($392,681)."

Medium value as at September 2013 for apartments:
Noosa Heads - $528,000
Maroochydore - $323,857
Mooloolaba - $358,380
Kings Beach - $367,888
Surfers Paradise - $337,767
Broadbeach - $401,824
Palm Cove - $336,795
Port Douglas - $251,312

Number of apartment sales:
Noosa Heads - 238
Maroochydore - 404
Mooloolaba - 234
Kings Beach - 124
Surfers Paradise - 1068
Broadbeach - 418
Palm Cove - 54
Port Douglas - 270

Change in value over past 5 years
Noosa Heads -  negative 23.3%
Maroochydore - negative 17%
Mooloolaba -  negative 5.2%
Kings Beach - negative 13.7%
Surfers Paradise - negative 15.4%
Broadbeach - negative 10.5%
Palm Cove - negative 21.5%
Port Douglas - negative 13.1%

Brisbane home prices increasing, but are still behind

Pain and Gain

RP Data has issued its December 2013 Pain and Gain report, comparing sales prices with the actual purchase price for the same property.  A summary:

"Over the third quarter of 2013 RP Data recorded 69,949 residential property re-sales nationally; of these 11.1% recorded a gross loss from the original purchase price. The gross value of the losses associated with these loss making re-sales totalled $488.1 million. Conversely, 88.9% of all September quarter re-sales recorded a gross profit relative to their original purchase price. The gross profit from these re-sales equated to $12.6 billion.

 Lifestyle regions continue to show the largest proportion of loss making re-sales, particularly within the unit markets as opposed to detached housing markets. Queensland’s Far North has overtaken the Gold Coast to record the largest proportion of loss making re-sales, with 33.9% of all September quarter re-sales transacting at a price lower than what the home was purchased for."

Property Losses

Taking into account inflation, property has performed badly in recent times.  See article by RP Data.  Brisbane is down about 17%.  Taking into account transaction costs (e.g., duty) and holding costs (rates, body corporate fees, maintenance and repairs), the situation is very grim for property investors.  And I suspect that inflation is actually higher in Brisbane than the official figures show.

Oracle Gold Coast Losses

Virtually every purchaser off-the-plan at The Oracle development (now branded Peppers) on the Gold Coast has lost money when reselling.  See article here.

Hilton Gold Coast Capital Losses

"According to RP Data, since January last year 66 apartments have sold in the Boulevard Tower, with resales making up a small proportion of the total.  

Unit 10504 was bought off the plan for $850,000 in February 2008 and sold on May 30 this year for just $505,000, a 40.5 per cent drop in value.  In July this year, unit 10607 sold for $435,000, a 32 per cent dip in price from January 2011 when a buyer paid $647,000.  A unit on the 21st floor was purchased for $910,000 in January 2008 and sold in November last year for just $525,000."

See Courier Mail

An agent is quoted as saying losses of 30% on the Gold Coast are not unusual.  Take care when buying!

Brisbane doing poorly

Despite what the newspapers may report, and what real estate agents may tell you, overall the Brisbane property market is doing poorly.  Have a look at these charts published this week by RP Data.  Brisbane is second-last on both charts.  If you purchased at the last peak, like many people did, and sold today, you will have lost about 10% (not including stamp duty and real estate agent selling fees).

Guaranteed Losses if you pay too much

If you pay too much to a developer when buying off the plan, no matter how good the location, and how good the development, you will loose money.  Often, developers will show you beautiful brochures of the facilities in the location (all true) and tell you rents are higher in this location than others (again true) and that it is a popular, closely held area (true again), and then try to sell you an apartment that is 20% above market value.  If this happens, you will likely suffer a capital loss.  See this story for example about capital losses in a bullet proof area.  Investors looking at SouthPoint at SouthBank, which is a brilliant location and looks to be a quality development, should take notice of this warning, particularly when prices are more than $10,000 a square metre.

Brisbane Units Still Going Backwards

According to RP Data, Brisbane apartment values are still declining.  From an RP Data release:

"RP Data and Rismark International today released its July housing market results which shows that capital city dwelling values increased by 1.6 per cent over the month of July after posting a solid 1.9 per cent capital gain in June. These latest monthly results now takes the cumulative recovery to 6.5 per cent since dwelling values found their trough at the end of May last year.

The July results also take the rolling quarterly change in capital city dwelling values to +2.3 per cent over the three months ending July and values are 4.9 per cent higher over the past twelve months.

According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, despite the strong headline, the market remains somewhat of a mixed bag.

“The housing market is being buoyed by very positive conditions in Sydney, Perth and to a lesser extent Melbourne, with residential values in these cities now 3.7 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively higher over the past three months alone. At the other end of the scale you have cities like Adelaide, Brisbane and more recently Darwin where conditions are more sedate with dwelling values slipping lower over the past quarter.” 

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 July 2013):
July 2013 - down 0.5%

Quarter - down 3.5%
Year on Year - down 0.3%
Year to Date - down 0.7%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $373,500.

Brisbane Underperforms

Brisbane has been the worst performing city in Australia when it comes to capital gains for housing, looking over the last 5 years.  In fact, there have been, on average capital losses for the past 5 years.

Looking back 10 years, rather than 5 years, things look a little better.  But people who have purchased in Brisbane the last 6 years are doing badly today.

Risks of Investing in Mining Towns

An article from the AFR on Thursday, 13 June 2013 is a good reminder why investing in boom towns is more like gambling than investing:

Boom town burns investors:  John Briggs of Port Hedland Real Estate predicts tough times ahead. 'Sales are few and far between.  Anybody who invested in the last 18 months is in for a torrid time.'  A banking source said lenders require potential buyers to have about 50% equity to buy into the former mining hot spot.  'Anyone looking to buy into towns like Port Hedland is buying at the wrong end of the market cycle,' said Gavin Hegney, a valuer.

BOQ warns about one bedroom apartments

"Bank of Queensland is worried about a surge in people borrowing money to invest in small apartments, citing Brisbane and Melbourne as concerning spots.

Of particular concern was self-managed super funds (SMSF) engaging in the tactic, BOQ CEO Stuart Grimshaw said.  He said the assumption was these one-bedroom apartments would appreciate in value, but it was  a "risky part of the market" for heavily borrowed SMSF funds.

"I don't think it's long before ASIC will start looking at some of the sales methodology," he said."

Source:  Courier Mail, page 77, 8 June 2013.

Be warned!

Brisbane Under-performs

Recent charts from RP Data show that Brisbane is under performing compared to the other Australian capital cities.  Does this mean that a boom is coming for Brisbane houses and apartments?  Interest rates are currently low, but long term, there is a significant risk of inflation.  So what does that mean for Brisbane apartment prices?

RP Data Reports

Information from RP Data

Bubble Trouble?

"In conclusion, the data presented should provide more than enough evidence to suggest that Australia’s residential property market (specifically land market) is vastly overvalued, driven by debt-financed speculation and the relative non-taxation of land rent. While land bubbles have been a continual feature of the Australian economy, what separates this cycle is the relative enormity of the boom in both land values and private debt. A smaller private debt to GDP ratio during the 1880s and 1920s was enough to produce two devastating depressions, including a number of recessions during the mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s."

See The History of Australian Property Values

A response to this is on Property Observer, plus a debate here.

No Capital Growth for Brisbane Property

As reported by RP Data, on an average annual basis over the past 5 years, Brisbane has not had capital growth in property values.   Taking into account stamp duties and other transactional costs, the losses would be even greater.  It would have been better of investors, on average, to put money in the bank.

Festival Towers

I visited Festival Towers recently for an open house.  The building and common facilities are looking tired, the apartment looked worn out, and there were a large crowd of tourists in the small lobby area.  The building is used as a "hotel" by Oaks.  It is a building that is popular for touring escorts.

Values are not holding up.  For example, apartment 3607, on a high floor, has 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms.  It was sold off the plan in 2006 by Devine (now running Metro Property Group) for $530,000.  It was resold in late December 2012 for $455,000.

The apartment next door, apartment 3608, sold off the plan in 2006 for $546,000.  Two beds, two bathrooms, 2 cars, 103 sqm.  It resold in early December 2012 for $485,300.

Either a good building for bargains, or a building that has long term problems, depending on your view of the world.

End of the Down Cycle

If this chart from RP Data of past performance is any basis for predicting the future, then property values in Australia will start to rise again.  But note from the chart that in recent times, there have been more declining quarters in recent times then 10 to 15 years ago.

Capital Loss in Meriton's Soleil

Take care when buying off the plan!  At present, Meriton is marking Infinity, a tall apartment tower in the Roma Street area of Brisbane City.  Let's look at an example of an investor in Meriton's prior apartment tower, Soleil.

Apartment 6003 was purchased by a Sydney investor in September 2010, off the plan, for $640,000.  It is a two bedroom apartment with study, on level 60.  None of the apartments in Soleil (or Infinity) have balconies.  The apartment is 93 sqm, a good size, but faces West.

This apartment has been on the market for a number of months.  Ray White now has it listed for sale, at $575,000.  With stamp duty and agent's fees, a capital loss of at least $80,000 or more than 10%.

This is what Ray White says in an email:

Unit 6003/501 Adelaide Street, Brisbane – 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, study, 1 car + storage
Please see below links to the property internet listing along with a link to the floor plan:
6003/501 Adelaide Street, Brisbane - Internet Link
6003/501 Adelaide Street, Brisbane - Interactive Floor Plan Link
This property is open for inspection today 2^nd February 2013 from 1:30-2pm. 
We also have another property on the market in Soleil, Unit 4803/501 Adelaide Street, Brisbane which is a 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartment with a study and 1 car space. 
At the end of 2012 we sold Unit 5204/501 Adelaide Street, Brisbane for $570,000 [the vendor had paid $540,000] along with many other sales within the Admiralty Precinct throughout the year.
We currently have buyers that are interested in acquiring quality properties within the Soleil and the Admiralty Precinct.

Brisbane Transaction Volumes Increase!

As shown in the above chart from RP Data, Brisbane transaction volumes for houses and apartments jumped recently.

But the Brisbane property market is still well below its peak.

There has been negative annual value growth over the past five years for Brisbane property.

And no growth over the past year in Brisbane.