Ray White Agent's View of Brisbane apartment market

From an email from a Brisbane Ray White agent:

"The concerns for property owners for the next 12-18 months is that with around 23,000 new apartments under construction around the CBD & fringe, is that it will have a volcano effect and force property prices and rent down due to the over supply. 

We are seeing this happen at the moment in Surfers Paradise with 9/10 owners are losing money on their property. Sydney and Melbourne have already seen this happen. We are recommending it's crucial to have a think what your property plans are for the next few years. 

If you are having any thoughts of selling, don't hesitate to get in touch before it's too late. This new stock coming to the Brisbane market is not far away. 

Good news is! The market is strong at the moment."

Buying Activity and Capital Gains Not Strong

But not everyone is as optimistic about Queensland’s prospects.

Property analyst Louis Christopher of SQM Research said the state’s comparatively sluggish economy meant “buying activity hasn’t been strong”.

“If Brisbane is so good, why aren’t we seeing capital gains now?” he challenged.

“Yes, we are bullishly positive on the southeast Queensland market, and it’s a lot more affordable than Sydney — but there are reasons for that,” Mr Christopher said.

He said that the Queensland economy was still suffering from the austerity of the former Liberal Government, along with the mining downturn.  But there were hopes the new Labor Government would “open up its purse strings” and kickstart a recovery.

“There’s still a lot of stock about, and the economy is still quite patchy,” Mr Christopher said.

“Nevertheless, we are a little bit more positive on the market. We do agree it’s more affordable, on a rental basis and on an absolute price-to-wages basis.”

He said the Gold Coast was likely to see capital gains of between seven and 11 per cent over the next 12 months, but that Brisbane would be more restrained.

Source:  News.com.au

Brisbane Apartments and Units perform poorly

CoreLogic (RP Data) has released its recent monthly housing report.

"According to Mr Lawless, the strongest growth conditions outside of Sydney and Melbourne have been in Brisbane where dwelling values were 3.9 per cent higher over the year. Sydney and Melbourne values continue to boom, the next best performing city, Brisbane, has seen dwelling values rise by just 3.9 per cent over the past twelve months. Based on the median dwelling price, Sydney prices are now 72 per cent higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne’s are 24 per cent higher,” he said."

However, apartments in Brisbane performed very poorly when compared with houses.  In fact, apartment values have declined in Brisbane.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 July 2015):

July 2015 - down 1.9%

Quarter - down 2.3%

Year to Date - down 0.8%
Year on Year - down 2.5%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $380,000

Recent Brisbane City Apartment Sales

Some example recent sales in Brisbane city apartment buildings.  Some buildings are tightly held and have few sales.

Quay West - 132 Alice Street

• Apt 88, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car, park views - $512,000 in June 2015
• Apt 50, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $705,000 in February 2015

Admiralty Towers 1 - 35 Howard Street

• Apt 119, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 cars, river front - $1,240,000 in February 2015

Admiralty Towers 2 - 501 Queen Street

• Apt 78, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 cars, river front - $1,100,000 in March 2015

Charlotte Towers - 128 Charlotte Street

• Apt 3701, 1 bed, 1 bath - $368,000 in July 2015
• Apt 2504, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - $436,000 in July 2015
• Apt 1702, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $545,000 in Juune 2015

Casino Towers - 151 George Street

• Apt 2101, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $872,000 in July 2015
• Apt 1506, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - $334,000 in July 2015
• Apt 2104, 1 bed, 1 bath - $384,750 in June 2015
• Apt 1307, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $480,000 in June 2015

Riverplace - 82 Boundary Street

• Apt 288 - 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $740,000 in July 2015
• Apt 38 - 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $677,500 in June 2015

Soleil - 501 Adelaide Street

• Apt 5501, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $695,000 in July 2015

Lost Views for some apartments in Brisbane

You have to be careful these days when buying an apartment, because with all the development in Brisbane, your view may disappear or change.

Here is an example of an apartment in Sebel Suites (95 Charlotte St) on the 30th floor, where the aspect was impacted by a building nearby.  There are many other apartments in Brisbane that have recently been impacted or may soon be impacted by pending construction.

Prediction that Brisbane Rents will not fall

"Brisbane's booming inner-city apartment construction market has led many to speculate a fall in rental prices could ensue in late 2015 as the market is flooded.  However, Dr Wilson said that in Melbourne, where there have been record levels of inner-city apartment developments, rents have continued to increase, which could bode well for Brisbane investors, though not so much for renters."

See Brisbane Times

Capital city dwelling values rise 9% over past 12 months but capital losses in May

From RP Data:

Today's results revealed the pace of home value growth stalled in May with dwelling values down 0.9% over the month.  After an increase in dwelling values of 3.8 per cent over the first four months of the year, the May CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results out today recorded a drop of 0.9 per cent for the month across the combined capitals index; the first month-on-month fall since November last year.

Mr Lawless said, "Over the past three years, dwelling values have risen more than three times as fast as rents. Dwelling values are 24.2 per cent higher across the combined capitals over the past three years while weekly rents have risen by only 7.2 per cent. The net result is that gross rental yields have been compressed from 4.3 per cent back in 2012 to the current average gross yield of 3.7 per cent across the combined capital city index," he said.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 May 2015):

May 2015 - up 0.1%

Quarter - up 1.4%

Year to Date - up 1.7%
Year on Year - up 2%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $393,500

Leave Your Money in the Bank

"The latest research shows that only 10% of sales in the Brisbane inner-city unit market are to owner-occupiers. Investors are buying 90% of the stock and the great majority of them are distant investors – people from interstate and overseas. Many will wish they had left their money in the bank.

Vacancies in Brisbane’s inner-city suburbs range from 4% or 6.5% - and that’s before all the new supply now under construction hits the rental market. BIS Shrapnel research shows that a record number of new apartments will be completed this year, but more will be finished next year and even more the year after. These numbers are a red flag for sensible buyers.

Brisbane, like Melbourne and the Gold Coast, is building far too many apartments because they’re not being created for local consumption – they’re being conceived for sale to unsuspecting foreign buyers."

See Terry Ryder: Better in the bank than on Brisbane inner-city apartments

Supply Greater than Demand in Brisbane

4BC Real Estate Guru Keven Turner has downplayed any risk of undersupply in the Brisbane apartment market despite recent reports of an upcoming boom in demand.

Speaking to Mark Braybook on 4BC Mornings, Mr Turner said that the supply of new units far outweighs recent increases in demand.

"If you look at the number of approvals sort of going forward, we've only got something like 2000 or 1500 to 2000 units in the pipeline which is not even going to meet demand."

Mr Turner said Melbourne is at a far greater risk of oversupply with over 20 000 new units being planned or developed.

However Mr Turner has warned potential buyers in Brisbane to be prepared to hold onto properties well into the long term if they are seeking to make a profit.  

"Developers actually have a huge amount of control over new stock, new development stock, so they pretty much do actually control that market.  If you find that you're buying a unit you're probably gonna have to hold onto it for anything up to five to 10 years to get something value back out of it." 

Source 4BC Radio

Property is a very long term investment

"Across resales of homes throughout the December 2014 quarter, those homes that were held for only a short period of time proved to be much more susceptible to loss. Although home values increased over the 2014 calendar year, 13.1% of owners who purchased and resold in the same year recorded a gross loss (resales in less than a year accounted for just 1.6% of all resales over the year). Homes resold after being held for between 3 and 5 years were the most likely to record a gross loss (17.1%) followed by those held between 5 and 7 years (15.3%). The data also reiterates the long-term nature of housing investment as well as relatively weaker growth in values over the past decade. Of those homes resold between 10 and 15 years from the previous purchase only 48.4% sold for double their original purchase price with the proportion rising to 95.0% for homes sold after 15 years of ownership."

Source: RP Data Pain Gain Report

 More than 10% of resellers in Brisbane suffered capital losses:

Sydney Strong, Brisbane About to Boom?

"Since mid-2013, the average gross rental yield across Australia’s combined capital cities has reduced from 4.3 per cent down to 3.6 per cent. Gross rental yields are now approaching record lows in both Melbourne and Sydney at 3.3 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.

Mr Lawless said the latest housing market data is likely to present a further challenge for the Reserve Bank when they deliberate interest rate settings next week. 

"Despite the headwinds of softer labour markets, very low rental yields, increased oversight on lending conditions and heightened economic uncertainty, historically low mortgage rates appear to be adding further stimulus to the housing market, albeit that stimulus is largely being felt in Sydney."

See RP Data Report

With Sydney now overpriced, Brisbane looks more promising.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 March 2015):

March 2015 - up 1.8%

Quarter - up 2.1%

Year to Date - up 2.1%
Year on Year - up 3%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $380,000

Start Sounding the Alarm!

Australia will run into a glut of apartments in just two years led by Melbourne and Brisbane - but other cities are also building more than they need, says BIS Shrapnel.

The forecaster, which started warning about an apartment overhang in Melbourne a year ago, is now also ramping up warnings about Brisbane and Adelaide. 

Brisbane's voracious appetite for apartment construction has resulted in a stock surplus that dates back at least to 2006, but that glut is about to triple from 5000 from last financial year to 15,000 by next year, BIS Shrapnel says.

See AFR

No oversupply in Inner Brisbane for Apartments?

"Brisbane's inner-city apartment market is a long way from being oversupplied, according to leading real estate adviser Urbis.

Issuing its detailed inner-city report on Wednesday, the group reported that a record 1500 sales had been made in the December quarter from 111 apartment projects. The September quarter recorded 1400 and such numbers have not been seen since 2007.

Urbis economic and market research director Mal Aikman said future supply was "not an issue" and that investors from Sydney and Melbourne were seeing value in Brisbane.

"Looking forward what we find is that in the first and second quarters of 2015 there are about 5000 apartments available for sale," Mr Aikman said.  "At the current rate of demand, that would equate to a sales rate of about 4000 apartments. So demand is slightly behind, but not significantly, and we're a long way from saying there's an oversupply or a glut."

Urbis noted that the Brisbane central business district had a huge surge in sales almost entirely driven by AMP Capital and Billbergia's Skytower, which saw 415 sales worth $267 million."

See AFR, 25 March 2015

In my opinion, Urbis is overly optimistic.  There may be buyers for off the plan apartments, but will there be enough renters?  I suspect that most buyers in Brisbane Skytower are from China.

The Brisbane Times provides this gloss:

He admitted prices for new apartments were highly unlikely to rise in the coming year due to the increased supply and stopped short of guaranteeing they would fall.  However, he indicated tumbling price tags to live in the inner-city were probable.  "Our view is prices aren't likely to rise but whether they will fall really depends on the developers," he said.

Brisbane Times

What to do in Brisbane?

Travel & Leisure magazine has an interesting blog post about Brisbane.  See post here.

Arbour on Grey - recent sales

It is hard to find out recent sales prices for a number of South Bank apartments in Brisbane.  This is because the land is leased on a 999 year lease.

Arbour on Grey is one of the better apartment buildings in Brisbane - developed by Mirvac about 12 years ago..  Some apartments on levels 3 and 4 have river views.  It is hard to compare apartments in this complex, because the floor plans and aspects are often very different.  There are two buildings - the north building and the south building, which are low arise, with about 6 entries in total.

Grey St is named after Earl Grey, who once had a tea storage facility on the street.

Some recent sales from Arbour on Grey (all two bed, two bath, 1 car park):

• Apt 1110, 172 Grey St - level 1, north building - $660,000  (This apartment is a very large apartment looking over Grey St -- 96 sqm internal, with a 50 sqm balcony.  See www.1110arbour.com)
• Apt 1307, 172 Grey St - level 3, north building - $735,000 (109 sqm overlook South Bank Parklands and Little Stanley Street, with river views)
• Apt 2202, 186 Grey St - level 2, south building - $662,500 (100 sqm overlook South Bank Parklands and Little Stanley Street)
• Apt 2218, 180 Grey St - level 2, south building - $655,000
• Apt 2312, 182 Grey St - level 3, south building - $735,000

There is a three bedroom apartment with a good floor plan currently for sale for $1M plus.

Before buying elsewhere in South Brisbane, it is worth comparing what you get in Arbour on Grey.

Brisbane the laggard, says Macquarie

"Brisbane is still very much the laggard for this cycle given the sluggish domestic economy, with periodic price falls still common particularly for the Brisbane unit market," Macquarie's latest report noted.

It was in part because Queensland continued to show population growth moderation as the recent mining boom subsided.

The lagging occurs even as prices emerge back into recovery and should exhibit strong price growth into 2015, it noted.

See Property Observer

In my view, another big reason for zero growth in Brisbane is income growth has been negligible, and other costs (especially food and entertainment) have increased faster than salaries.  As a result, rents in Brisbane have basically been flat for two to three years.

Brisbane Apartment Glut, then Crash

Queensland University of Technology property economist, Professor Chris Eves, has warned a glut in apartments in Brisbane's CBD, South Brisbane and West End would cause a price crash for apartments in 2016.

"I know of one construction company [Hutchinson] that currently has contracts out for 3000 units in those locations and basically when you are looking at those sorts of numbers, you are looking at a serious oversupply, he said.

Professor Eves said research showed there had been a 9% increase in the number of approvals for apartments in inner-city Brisbane in the past year.

"But we are not seeing the same sort of increase in the population," he said.

The crash will hurt major developers, off-the-plan buyers and some banks, but deliver a bonanza for renters and buyers.

"If we see those approval numbers continue, we are looking at the potential of another Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast glut in the unit market."  

He said the glut in Brisbane CBD, South Brisbane and West End apartments would peak in 2016, causing prices to drop sharply.

See Brisbane Times

Advice from Warren Buffett

Forget what you know about buying fair apartments at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful apartments at fair prices. 

Developments in Brisbane

A good website to look for future developments in Brisbane is the Brisbane Development website.  It demonstrates that there are many large apartment buildings in the pipeline for Brisbane.  Some examples:

• CavCorp's proposal for 366 apartments at Newstead Gasworks.
• Walker Corporation has plans for 433 apartments on Ann Street in the Valley.
• Aria plans for 84 apartments in Vulture Street in the South Brisbane
• Plans for 353 apartments on Brunswick Street in the Valley

Before buying, it is worth looking to see if your views will be blocked by any proposed new development.  And keep in mind that there is likely to be an oversupply of new apartments in Brisbane in the next 2 years.  Maybe wait until these buildings all settle, and you may then get a better price.

The Brisbane Development website has a good interactive map showing developments.

Troubles within Body Corporates

When buying an apartment, it is important to understand whether the body corporate committee is professional and sensible, and whether the building owners are cohesive.

An example of a building with major troubles in this area is Admiralty Towers Two at 151 Queen St. This is a prestigious riverfront building, with large apartments and great facilities, is in a really super location.  However, onsite management company went bankrupt a few years ago, and the receivers are trying to sell the management rights (that is, the contract for the caretaker for the building and onsite rental office).   The current body corporate is opposed to management rights as a concept -- some sort of religious like zeal.  The management rights were sold, and at an AGM the owners narrowly approved the sale to the new caretaker, but the committee is trying to block the sale.  The committee is spending owners money to engage a lawyer from Sydney to fly to Brisbane on this issue -- a lawyer who has publicly stated he is against management rights.  Fights and more fights.  Lawyers everywhere.   Uncertainty over who will be the caretaker.  This has and will impact the value of apartments in this building.

Another building where a fight is brewing is Quay West, where the management rights contract will come to an end in a few years.  Some committee members in this building are also opposed to management rights.  The committee is doing illogical things, just to make the onsite manager's life as difficult as possible.  One example:  the onsite manager offered to buy a new smoke detection system for the building at the manager's own cost to bring the building up to standard, but the committee rallied owners to vote against this.  Does this make commercial sense?

And in Admiralty Towers One, one owner keeps bring legal action against the body corporate and has been regularly unsuccessful.  See this decision and this decision and this decision for example.  This one owner is causing all the other owners to waste money on lawyers, rather than improving the quality of the building.

Another example is The Phoenician at Broadbeach.  The committee at this building has been hostile to a succession of onsite managers for years.  One example -- the committee got into a trade mark litigation with the onsite manager, and lost, having to pay the legal costs of the onsite manager!  What a waste of owners' money.

One common threat running through all this is the Unit Owners Association of Queensland.  Buildings listed above that have had internal disputes often have committee members from UOAQ living in the building or on the body corporate.  It is not uncommon for committee members in such circumstances to push the views of the UOAQ with religious like zeal, often to the financial detriment of residents and lot owners.

(Click on letter below to make bigger)

Recent Sales - Admiralty Towers One and Two

Recent sales in Admiralty Towers One (35 Howard Street)

• Apt 145, 2 bed, 2 bath, river views from side (not direct riverfront) 105 sqm - $600,000 in January 2015
• Apt 101, 2 bed, 2 bath, no river views - 104 sqm - $577,000 in January 2015
• Apt 146, level 24, 2 bed, 2 bath, no river views (same floor plan as Apt 101) - 104 sqm - $575,000 in September 2014
• Apt 54, level 8, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - no river views - 74 sqm - $426,300 in September 2014
• Apt 44, level 6, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - full river views - 132 sqm - $810,000 in June 2014

Recent sales in Admiralty Towers Two (501 Queen Street)

• Apt 72, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car - full view views - 151 sqm - $1,050,000 in October 2014
• Aprt 133, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car - full view views - 175 sqm - $1,250,000 in October 2014
• Apt 95, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car - full view views - 151 sqm - $1,048,000 in August 2014

Austin Apartment Sale

Aria developed a property at 77 Grey Street, South Brisbane, overlooking the Queensland Museum, called Austin.

Apartment 1807 is currently listed for sale at just less than $700,000.  The apartment has a nice view of the roof of the museum (which is not so attractive) as well as the river and city skyline.  This part of Grey Street is busy, often with traffic jams.  The location is a very short walk to downtown Brisbane.

The apartment has two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and is 80 sqm internal, with a small 9 sqm balcony.    So this works out to be over $7,850 a sqm.  To me, that is very expensive.

If you are considering buying an apartment off-the-plan, it is worth looking at this apartment to see what an 80 sqm apartment is like.  For example, look at the photo below -- there is no place to put a TV, unless you put the TV or the couch in front of a window, and the coffee table has been pushed up against the couch to make the room seem bigger.  The kitchen is not really a room, but a row of floor tiles.  The bedrooms are tiny, at 3m by 3.1m; or 3.05m by 3.3m.  Typically, you would not want a bedroom less than 3m x 4m.

Keep in mind that two bedroom apartments with good views can be as large as 130 sqm, so remember to compare apples with apples when looking at apartments.  That is why price per square metre is a good comparison measure.

Rental Yields Decreasing as Prices Increase

From RP Data CoreLogic:

"CoreLogic RP Data February Home Value Index results released today showed that Australia’s combined capital cities have seen dwelling values rise by a further 0.3 per cent in February taking home values 8.3 per cent higher over the past twelve months.

According to CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless, dwelling values continued their upwards trajectory over the month of February by recording a 0.3 per cent gain over the month. This now takes combined capital city dwelling values 2.5 per cent higher over the rolling quarter and 8.3 per cent higher over the twelve months to the end of February.

Over the past twelve months the CoreLogic RP Data Index shows dwelling values across the eight capital city aggregate index are up 8.3 per cent. Sydney is once again the clear standout with dwelling values 13.7 per cent higher while Melbourne values are 7.4 per cent higher. Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, recorded the third highest rate of annual capital gain with dwelling values up 5.9 per cent. In contrast, dwelling values have increased by less than four per cent in every other capital city over the year.

Evidence of compressed rental yields is continuing across each of the capital city markets. A year ago the gross rental yield for a capital city dwelling was averaging 4.3 per cent; by the end of February the typical gross yield has been eroded down to just 3.7 per cent - due largely to the consistent high rate of dwelling value growth relative to rental growth."

Brisbane apartment prices (to 28 February 2015):

February 2015 - up 0.5%

Quarter - down 2.3%

Year to Date - up 0.3%
Year on Year - up 0.5%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $385,000

So, Brisbane apartment prices over the past year have barely increased, and increased much less than detached houses in Brisbane.  Brisbane is still under performing compared with Sydney and Melbourne.  And if you purchased at the peak of the market in about 2008, you would still be well underwater.

Quay West Brisbane Resales

Recent sales for Quay West in Brisbane, at 132 Alice Street

• Apt 37, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - 72 sqm - $456,000 in October 2014
• Apt 134, 3 bed, 2 bath, 3 car - 172 sqm - $1,350,000 in September 2014 sold to a QC
• Apt 68, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - 126 sqm - $695,000 in September 2014
• Apt 43, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - 72 sqm - $440,000 in August 2014
• Apt 47,  1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - 72 sqm - $440,000 in July 2014

Rumour has it that Ken Woodley, who lives in this building, recently purchased a 1 bedroom apartment (402) in Quay West for himself or a family member, at $435,000.  Mr Woodley is an owner and managing director of developer Metro Property Group.  I wonder why Mr Woodley is not purchasing in a Metro building, but is buy an older apartment in a Mirvac building?  Does that tell you something about the market?

Valuer's view of Brisbane property

"Firstly, interstate migration is a long way off its heady peaks in 2003. It’s flat performance isn’t a total deal breaker for our state’s rising market, but certainly if these numbers were to pick up, you’d think good things are set to follow.

Recent sales evidence would indicate there has been a levelling of prices and values over the past quarter. There’s a little more urgency amongst buyers, which has led to growth in the 12 months to June 2014. Values are up around 10% for near-city detached housing, and entry level housing within 5 kilometres of the CBD remains a market that is outperforming other sectors.

We do seem to be entering a phase of upgrading – although this is taking form in increased sale numbers, and consequently values, for vacant land and renovating existing dwellings, not to mention the downsizers (but not downgraders) into the prestige unit market. The stagnation in the market during the 2010 to mid-2013 stalled the upgrader market – due mainly to them being unable to offload their existing residence before shooting for something a bit better.

Like the stone that drops in the pond, the ripple affect is real for Brisbane’s property market. Starting with inner/near city detached housing and extending from there, how far the wave travels is dependent upon the strength of the boom.

The only standout in the supply and demand equation remains the unit market. With a significant increase in supply on the way, coupled with low interstate migration along with existing tenants taking the opportunity to buy or enter the market, we believe this sector has potential for a rising vacancy rate in the short term."

Source:  HTW November 2014 Month in Review

October is a better month for Brisbane apartment median values

The RP Data CoreLogic Home Value Index registered a 1.0% capital gain across the combined capital cities over the month of October, however the annual rate of growth has continued to trend lower.

According to the RP Data CoreLogic Home Value Index, dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities increased by 1.0 per cent over the month of October. The data highlights that despite a slowdown in growth in September, values continued to rise, increasing by 2.2 per cent over the past three months. Although combined capital city home values were up by 1.0 per cent over the month, only Sydney (1.3%), Melbourne (1.9%) and Brisbane (0.6%) actually recorded value rises over the month.

Dwelling values rose by 2.2 per cent over the three months to October 2014 however, only half of the capital cities actually recorded an increase in values. According to Mr Lawless this result highlights weaker housing market conditions outside of Australia’s largest cities.

According to Mr Lawless, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide (which happen to be four of the five largest capital cities), were the only capital cities to record an increase in home values over the past three months. [Note - this does not apply to Brisbane apartments, which recorded a decline for this three month period.]  Sydney continues as a standout with home values increasing at a rate of more than 1 per cent a month, up 3.9 per cent over the past three months. He said that Perth and Canberra have clearly moved through the peak of their growth cycles.

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 October 2014):

October 2014 - up 1.6%

Quarter - down 0.4%

Year to Date - up 2.6%
Year on Year - up 4.5%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $380,000

Tax for foreign investors on transactions involving taxable Australian property

On 31 October 2014, the Government released a discussion paper outlining the proposed design options for implementing the previously announced non-final withholding tax in relation to disposals by foreign residents of certain 'taxable Australian property' assets. The measure is proposed to commence from 1 July 2016.

The measure was originally contained in the former Government's 2013-14 Budget. The current Government announced on 6 November 2013 that it would proceed with the measure.

The release of the discussion paper will be of interest to those foreign investors who may be considering divesting their Australian real property or business assets over the next few years, as well as investors who are considering acquiring such assets from foreign investors over the same time period.

For full details, see King & Wood Mallesons publication

No capital growth for Brisbane property over last six years

Most recent property investors in Brisbane are likely to have lost money.

From a recent report from RP Data:

"The next time you hear someone talk of the booming national housing market remember these statistics.  Yes combined capital city home values are rising and this is due to the influence of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets where values are rising.  Real home values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart are still lower than they were before the financial crisis and have seen no real growth in more than six years."

When we abandon traditional underwriting standards

"The regulators believe that lower loan underwriting standards promote homeownership and make mortgages and homes more affordable. The facts, however, show that the opposite is true. ...

After the financial crisis, Representative Barney Frank — the Massachusetts Democrat who led the House Financial Services Committee during the crisis, and a champion of credit programs for low-income buyers — admitted, “It was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it.” Policy makers who support homeownership would be wise to consider who is hurt and who is helped when we abandon traditional underwriting standards."

See:  Underwriting the Next Housing Crisis

My view is that government policy that encourages people to buy rather than rent often leads to poor results.

Brisbane rental market

From an REIQ press release that was issued today:

Rental markets remain tight in southeast Queensland and the state’s major tourism centres according to the latest REIQ Residential Rental Survey, conducted at the end of September.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said the survey showed vacancy rates remained relatively steady across most parts of the state, with improvements in some key regional markets.  Ms Mercorella said only four of the 16 major regions in Queensland recorded a significant change in vacancy rates, with something of a two-tier affect still evident in the State’s rental market.

Ms Mercorella said at the end of September, the Brisbane City local government area (LGA) recorded a vacancy rate of 2.3 per cent, relatively unchanged since the end of June.

“Brisbane’s middle to outer suburbs – those 5-to-20km from the CBD - recorded a slight easing in vacancy levels, up 0.2 percentage points to two per cent at the end of September.  The city’s inner suburbs, on the other hand, recorded a vacancy level of 2.9 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent at the end of June.  Median weekly rents from the Residential Tenancy Authority (RTA) for the September quarter show relatively steady rents across the Brisbane City LGA.”

Ms Mercorella said Queensland’s tourism centres continued to record tight rental conditions.

“On the Sunshine Coast, the vacancy rate is at one per cent, the lowest of any major region in the state,” she said.  “Population growth and a lack of investor activity are contributing to these tight conditions, particularly in hinterland areas where agents are struggling to find enough rental properties to meet demand.

Admiralty Towers 2 sales

Some recent sales in Admiralty Two, a tower on the Brisbane riverfront, at 501 Queen Street.  One of the better buildings in the city, which large apartments all with riverfront views that cannot be built out.  The building has two swimming pools, and direct access to the river boardwalk.

Reported sales since January 2014, with most recent sales listed first.

Apt 166, about level 29, 3 bedrooms, $979,900
Apt 58, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (116 sqm) - $785,000
Apt 19, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (116 sqm) - $770,000
Apt 115, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (116 sqm) - $755,000
Apt 127, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (116 sqm) - $750,000

The average price so far this year for the larger two bedroom apartment in this building is $765,000, or $6,594 a sqm.  If you are buying off the plan, you may wish to measure against this sqm price for comparison.

What does the future hold for Brisbane apartments?

My advice to those considering buying in a high-rise apartment block in Brisbane -- don't buy off the plan and don't buy for two years.  Why -- prices are likely to fall.  My reasoning:

• There are a very large number of new apartments being built, which will settle in about two years.
• Interest rates are likely to increase by then.
• Rental vacancies will increase and rents will decrease as these new apartments come on to the market.
• Banks will make it hard to get a loan.  My guess is that they will only fund 70% of the valuation.
• The valuations are likely to be less than contract price.
• Many people will be unable to settle.
• Prices will therefore decrease, at least from the prices that new off-the-plan apartments are currently being sold for.
• Second tier second hand apartments will be impacted as a result.  Why buy a old apartment in Charlotte Towers or Festival Towers, that have few redeeming features, when you can buy a similar sized apartment with a similar view in a new building for a similar price?
• Apartments in some locations, and in some buildings (e.g., direct riverfront, larger apartments),  will suffer less negative impact.

Brisbane Skytower

Pre-marketing has commenced for Brisbane Skytower, said to be the tallest residential tower in Brisbane when it is completed.

It is being developed by Billbergia on the old Vision tower site (now called 111 + 222).

It has four sections, a downtown section, an uptown section, a skycity section and a skyrise section.  The starting price for what I guess is a one bedroom apartment starts at $425,000 in the downtown section and increases to a minimum of $595,000 in the skyrise section.

In less than a city block, there are more than 2,000 apartments coming online.  There are three towers, Skytower (at 222 Margaret Street), Abian (on the corner of Alice and Albert) and Camelot (on the corner of Albert and Margaret).  Seems like a glut to me.

Win an apartment in Soleil

RSL Art Unions are giving away, in an art union, apartment 5304 in Soleil.  This is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath apartment, no balcony, at 83 sqm, located on level 53.

RSL Art Unions paid $570,000 for this apartment in June 2014.  They have included about $40,000 of furniture.  They estimate rental returns of $39,000 a year, which is $750 a week -- that is a little high in my view.

Ray White Market Update for Brisbane City apartments

From Ray White CBD:

"The third quarter has seen prices remain stable after the growth of the first two quarters on 2014. Falling rents across the inner city in the last two months have halted price growth as large developments in nearby suburbs such as South Brisbane, Bowen Hills and Fortitude Valley have been completed. This has resulted in an over supply of rental accommodation causing rents to plunge.  With over 8,000 apartments approved for the city's inner suburbs rents look certain to remain soft for the next few years.

Michael Matusik released an article on his Linkedin page this week on the rental situation that has seen the rents for 1 bedroom units drop by $60 a week in recent months and 2 bedroom units drop by over $100 a week. https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20141019231540-170298265-brisbane-inner-city-apartments and following is a recent article in The Courier Mail http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/experts-say-outlook-is-not-pretty-as-fundamentals-in-inner-city-apartment-market-are-weakening/story-fnihsps3-1227024827411 

With the outlook for rents continuing to fall next year as more and more buildings are completed, it is doubtful prices will remain at their current levels.  Should you be considering selling, now is the time to do so."

Sounds like Ray White is saying now is not a good time to buy a Brisbane apartment.  Prices to fall!