Targeting the Chinese

You know when a developer is targeting foreign buyers when they produce a brochure in Chinese.  Here is a very nice brochure for Botanica, a development by Aria, in South Brisbane.  It will be located on the corner of Boundary Street and Edmondstone Street.  One and two bedroom apartments.

Infinity Part Opened

The tall Infinity building has partly opened, even though it is still under construction with a crane on top.  Meriton has opened its serviced apartment section, on the lower floors.  There are 10 apartments per floor.  I looked at a one bedroom.  It has good storage space, and a reasonable finish.  No balcony.  But strange design, because the living room is triangular in shape.  With the kitchen space in the living room, you have a nice view of your kitchen sink when trying to watch TV.  I felt like I was in a prison cell for white collar criminals.

The Brisbane Market

There is a lot of talk about how well the Sydney property market is doing, and also the property market in general.  But this does not appear to apply to Brisbane.  From what I can tell, the Brisbane market is holding steady, and not rising, and definitely not booming.  Have a look at the charts here, and the information below.  Despite what is happening in Sydney, there is no property boom in Brisbane.

Cheapest Units within 10 km of Brisbane downtown

RP Data released a report today, showing the suburbs with the lowest median price for units within 10km of Brisbane's city centre.  The results are here and here.  The three cheapest suburbs were:

• Chelmer
• Zillmere
• Kedron

Different ways to measure size of apartments

"Apartment buyers in Victoria are routinely being led to believe by developers and agents that their purchases are more than 5 per cent larger than the same place is anywhere else in Australia, according to industry experts.

Different ways of measuring and allowing inclusion of balconies, car parks and storage cages has allowed marketing material to claim bigger sizes than appear on property titles, they claim.

"It creates a big risk for valuers that report to banks who use the information about how much to lend," warned Angela Schooneman, head of real estate for law company Minter Ellison. "In tough times valuations can be looked at quite closely – and these are tough times."

Concern that measurements are confusing the industry and misleading buyers has caused the Australian Property Institute to try and bring the state in line with the rest of the nation by urging the introduction of uniform standards within the next 12 months.

"When valuers check measurements of apartments the outcomes are often different to what buyers think they are getting," said David Way, API apartments spokesman and joint management director of Knight Frank Valuations."

Full Story in AFR

I have seem developers and real estate agents in Brisbane, when giving apartment sizes in sqm, include storage cages and even car parks.  So take care!

Foreign Investors

Foreign buyers snapped up one in every eight new properties built this year - up from one in 20 properties in 2011, National Australia Bank research reveals.

Australia's foreign investment rules ban foreigners from buying established homes, and developers can sell half their properties to foreign investors before they are built.

Colliers International's managing director of residential property in Australia, Peter Chittenden, yesterday said Asian buyers were purchasing 60 per cent of units being sold off-the-plan in big developments.

He said overseas buyers had snapped up two in every three of the 588 luxury apartments in the Singaporean-owned Tower Melbourne development - being constructed as the city's tallest building.

Foreign investors have bought 15 to 20 per cent of the 710 apartments being built by Pearls Australasia and Metro Property Development in three towers in the inner-Brisbane suburbs of Bowen Hills and Fortitude Valley.  Pearls Australasia executive director David Higgins said Asian buyers were more likely to buy the more expensive apartments - costing more than $600,000 - with extra space or views.

Source:  Courier Mail

"According to research from LandMark White, of the 27 apartment projects completed in the inner-city precinct between 2011 and 2012, the vast majority were rental properties.  "Anecdotal evidence reports circa 40% to 50% of these investors are Asian buyers," it reports.  "Current conditions indicate investment in the inner apartment market remains robust due to strong rental growth and tight vacancy."

Source:  Courier Mail, Saturday August 24, 2013, p.33

See also: Property Observer: Trends

Apartment Body Corporate Fees

"Apartment buyers should avoid paying for lifestyle amenities already on their doorstep.  Minimising strata fees is increasingly a priority for apartment buyers eager to make sure the quarterly payments for the upkeep of their buildings don't take too much of a chunk out of their income.  So where there's a public gym or pool near a block, developers will often avoid including them in their plans for the complex to keep costs down."
Source:  Domain Advertorial

Here are some example body corporate levies for a random selection of apartments in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast:

• City, one bed - $5,200 a year
• South Bank, two bed - $6,000 a year
• City, two bed - $7,000 a year
• City, two bed - $5,800 a year
• Suburbs, one bed - $4,400 a year
• Suburbs, two bed - $4,000 a year
• Suburbs, two bed - $4,900 a year
• Noosa, one bed - $5,129 a year
• Mooloolaba, two bed - $11,820 a year

Rents and Vacancies

A number of onsite managers have reported to me that they are taking much longer than expected to fill vacancies, and that rents are going down, even when a tenant renews.

Property Owl

A new property website:  Property Owl.   This is aimed at buyers.

Guaranteed Losses if you pay too much

If you pay too much to a developer when buying off the plan, no matter how good the location, and how good the development, you will loose money.  Often, developers will show you beautiful brochures of the facilities in the location (all true) and tell you rents are higher in this location than others (again true) and that it is a popular, closely held area (true again), and then try to sell you an apartment that is 20% above market value.  If this happens, you will likely suffer a capital loss.  See this story for example about capital losses in a bullet proof area.  Investors looking at SouthPoint at SouthBank, which is a brilliant location and looks to be a quality development, should take notice of this warning, particularly when prices are more than $10,000 a square metre.

Rental Increases

In Australia, rental yields for apartments are 4.9%, according to RP Data.

Barangaroo Sydney receiving great interest

New harbour-side apartments in downtown Sydney, at Barangaroo, are generating great interest.  Lend Lease must be happy.

Alex Perry Residential Struggling?

Alex Perry Residential in the Valley launched with great hype, and, according to hits on this blog, was of great interest to people looking to buy an apartment.  The dreams and promises of 2011 may not come true.  According to Property Observer:

"... the much touted Alex Perry Residential development, which hit the market more than two years ago complete with supermodels and paparazzi, continues to struggle with developer Chrome Property providing no update on off-the-plan sales to Colliers International.  Colliers International records 40 apartments sold to date out of 143 for a project which was first marketed in May 2011 and is now being managed by property development services group Xede, after being re-jigged with three-bedroom apartments replaced with one bedroom apartments and more than half of the 143 apartments to be sold to investors as serviced apartments.

Xede managing director Rod Fiddler told Property Observer the project had received development approval with a builder appointed.

“Sales are continuing and we are progressing towards financiers’ pre-sales targets.  We are not in the business of publicly declaring sales results as these are too often manipulated or misinterpreted," he said.  “Construction is targeted to commence this side of Christmas with demolition as early as September 2013,” he said.

Metro Property Group - A remarkable marketing machine

Last week, Ken Woodley, marketing director of Metro Property Group, zoomed past me in his Jaguar.  He was leaving his Mirvac penthouse and heading in the direction of the Valley.  He must be super happy with the sales of Metro's off-the-plan apartments in the Valley.  As reported today in Property Observer, Metro has been hugely successful in its Valley developments.  Although they are marketed as luxury apartments, in my view, they are small, basic apartments, targeted at foreign investors who cannot buy existing apartments due to FIRB rules.

"Devine’s Metro Property Development group recorded 67 off-the-plan sales over the March quarter for Cambridge Towers, the first stage of its $450 million Central Village development in Fortitude Valley making it the top seller by some margin, according to the latest inner Brisbane apartment update from Colliers International.  Now under construction, Metro had sold 92 out of 165 units in the development as of the end of the March quarter.  In a release earlier this month, Metro said it had sold 80% of the 160 apartments in Oxford Towers, stage two of the project, with one and two bedroom apartments ranging from $275,000 to $575,000.  On completion Central Village will comprise five towers and approximately 970 apartments. The project is expected to take approximately five years to complete."

Vendor activity steady

Property owners in Australia do not appear to be rushing to sell, according to RP Data.

Comparison: Apartments and Houses

According to RP Data, when looking at the median price of properties sold in the 3 months to July 2013, apartments in Brisbane are $75,000 more affordable than houses.

Milton off-the-plan apartments

There are two competing apartment developments in Milton, currently being developed.

• The Milton, being developed by FKP, at 55 Railway Terrace.  FKP has announced recently that it will be focusing on retirement properties, rather than residential developments.
• Westmark Milton, being developed by Lang Walker from Melbourne, at Railway Terrace between Walsh and Manning Streets.

FKP's renderings show a park across the road from its development.  What FKP does not show is any illustration with the Westmark building, that will (I suspect) block out any river or city views that residents of The Milton may have been expecting.

Due to the railway, both buildings should have uninterrupted views of the XXXX brewery.

The Milton -- but where exactly is the green space that is shown?

Across the road is Westmark

Less Apartments Being Sold in Brisbane

The number of apartments being sold in Brisbane are less than the number sold in the same three month period last year.

Rental Returns

I have conducted a review across about 20 apartment rental properties in Brisbane and S.E. Queensland, comparing the 12/13 FY with the previous financial year.  The analysis is done before depreciation and tax is taken into account.  Some of my conclusions, from this limited review:

• rent increases in the past year have been minimal, and I suspect below inflation
• vacancy periods between tenants have increased slightly
• body corporate fees have increased dramatically, and well more than rents and inflation
• council charges and water rates are slightly higher
• long term rental properties do much better than vacation or short term rental properties
• net returns, before interest, have decreased compared to the previous financial year (mostly due to body corporate increases being more than rent increases)
• fees and charges from rental agents are high, especially when considering the work done and value received -- self managed properties do better than agent managed properties for this reason,  even if the rent received is slightly below market rent
• if interest rates had not decreased, then the overall picture would not have been rosy.  
• because of decreases in interest rates, the overall cash position (not taking into account depreciation and tax) improved in the 12/13 FY compared with the previous financial year.

Buyers Retuning to the Market?

Real estate agents are reporting that buyers are coming back to the market in Brisbane, and that prices achieved are increasing.  For example, two bedroom apartments in higher quality city apartments that, at the height of the boom achieved above $800,000, and then dropped to the mid $600,000 range, are now selling in the $700,000 plus range, and sometimes more.  This includes a two bedroom apartment in Quay West, sold for about $700,000; a two bedroom in Admiralty Towers Two sold above $750,000 and a two bedroom in Saville at Southbank for more than $800,000.  In fact, another two bedroom at Saville is now listed for sale in the $900,000 range.

Investors appear to be returning to the market, due to lower interest rates.  Owner-occuppiers are looking for larger apartments, and there are not many high quality larger apartments available for sale (partly because developers have been focusing on building very small apartments that have been sold to foreign investors).  With interest rates low, many investors who currently own property are not selling, because these properties are now becoming positively geared -- why sell, unless the price offered is high?  There is a shortage of apartments for sale for owner-occuppiers; and a shortage of existing apartments (compared with off-the-plan apartments) for investors.

Towers like Infinity, aimed at Chinese investors, do not provide what local Brisbane buyers want in my view.

Photo of Infinity, under construction on the right.  Evolution Apartments is the smaller building in the middle of the photo.  The Supreme Court building is on the right in the foreground; the Magistrates Court building on the left in the foreground.  400 George St is the taller building on the left.

Valuer's View

From the HTW Month in Review, recently published:

"Our valuers are reporting anecdotally that confidence is reasonably good around south east Queensland, but job security is the big concern. It’s hard to pay your mortgage or rent without dollars coming in the door. Some certainty in the economy would be nice with a few observers saying a post-federal election surge is on the cards. We wouldn’t be so bold as to make that prediction, but politics and instability have played a hand in making the population uneasy on a number of fronts.

While there is some confidence in our markets,buyers are uncertain where fair market value lays in plenty of cases. There has been an increase in the number of pre-purchase valuations being requested by buyers. This is a sign to some degree that buyers want to purchase rather than just tire kick or hope to jag an absolute steal.

The sector seeing the best performance is probably the trade up market. Family size homes in the $1 million to $2 million range are being keenly sought. Buyers want large blocks and sizable homes.  Location is important too. Competition is toughest within 8 kilometres of the CBD, but this should come as no surprise. This sort of real estate is generally blue-chip and will offer the best chance of capital growth in the coming years.

So our call is that sectors where fundamentals are good are the ones that will perform the best in the foreseeable future. It’s no longer fair to say every sector is a buyers’ market. Our expectation for the rest of this year is one of quiet confidence. Assuming there are no unforeseen shocks, everything is pointing towards a steady-asshe-goes time in the market with modest gains to be made for those willing to buy and wait."

Brisbane Units Still Going Backwards

According to RP Data, Brisbane apartment values are still declining.  From an RP Data release:

"RP Data and Rismark International today released its July housing market results which shows that capital city dwelling values increased by 1.6 per cent over the month of July after posting a solid 1.9 per cent capital gain in June. These latest monthly results now takes the cumulative recovery to 6.5 per cent since dwelling values found their trough at the end of May last year.

The July results also take the rolling quarterly change in capital city dwelling values to +2.3 per cent over the three months ending July and values are 4.9 per cent higher over the past twelve months.

According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, despite the strong headline, the market remains somewhat of a mixed bag.

“The housing market is being buoyed by very positive conditions in Sydney, Perth and to a lesser extent Melbourne, with residential values in these cities now 3.7 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively higher over the past three months alone. At the other end of the scale you have cities like Adelaide, Brisbane and more recently Darwin where conditions are more sedate with dwelling values slipping lower over the past quarter.” 

Brisbane apartment prices (to 31 July 2013):
July 2013 - down 0.5%

Quarter - down 3.5%
Year on Year - down 0.3%
Year to Date - down 0.7%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $373,500.

Off-the-plan apartments overpriced

A story in the Courier Mail yesterday:  "Bank revaluations hit apartment buyers".  Some extracts:

• Buyers of off-the-plan apartments are reporting that banks are revaluing their properties once the buildings are completed and only lending a lesser amount.
• "The difference between the price paid by a property buyer and the bank valuation is often high, over 20%, and the differential is spreading.  Many off-the-plan purchases are made at prices significantly above true market price.  On completion, it is not uncommon for valuations to come in at least 10 to 15% below the contract price." said Michael Yardney.
• The problem arises in two ways:  the buyer initially pays too much and the property declines in value during the construction period.
• "As a general rule, off-the-plan will go down in value as soon as it's built." said Mr Roylance, director of iProperty Plan.
• In this situation, the lender will usually provide a loan at 80% of the valuation, not 80% of the contract price.

Chinese Buyers & Infinity

The AFR had a story on 24 July:  "Brisbane keen for more Chinese buyers".  Some extracts:

• Harry Triguboff from Meriton apartments expects Brisbane to be next in line for an influx of Chines investors, but says it will depend on the growth in education in Brisbane.
• Chinese buyers in Brisbane were few and far between, when compared with Sydney and Melbourne.
• Infinity Tower, by Merition, has sold about 200 apartments according to Urbis. 
• In the first quarter, only seven apartments were sold in Infinity, for an average price of $560,714.
• Meriton has no additional plans for apartments for Brisbane.  "I want the Brisbane market to get stronger first."

Fat Australia

It is even making new in New York that Australians are getting fatter.  In New York, many people live in apartments, and do a lot of walking.  In Brisbane, many people who live in apartments still drive everywhere.  One reason for this -- there are often less facilities within walking distance.  The government thinks that high density living is good, but only thinks about the place to sleep.  In NY, it is easy to walk to schools, playgrounds, kindergartens, swimming pools, and everyday stores (such as chemists, bakers, barbers) from your apartment.  This is often not the case in Brisbane.

Outlook for Property on a Weaker Dollar

The AFR had a story on Wednesday titled "Outlook for property on a weaker dollar."

An abstract from ABIX is as follows:

"While it is pointless trying to accurately forecast the future changes in the Australian dollar's value after a decline of about a tenth during the six months to July 2013, it is worth considering the effects this has on real estate investors. Those with existing overseas assets are seeing a boost to the income streams, while those only now starting to allocate funds to the segment will have to pay more. Foreign investors looking to buy off-the-plan properties in Australia, the only option available to them, will find this easier to finance and demand should increase. However these investors account for only 3% of the market. Meanwhile local real estate buyers may feel the impact of inflation, but in general the fallout from the foreign exchange rate fluctuations will be moderate."

Some quotes from the article:

"A lower Australian dollar may increase the attraction of Australian property to overseas investors - particularly new or off-the-plan property, given that FIRB rules exclude non-residents from buying established property."

"The reality is that inward investment flows into Australian residential property are modest, and represent a very small proportion of the total market.   According to FITB, in 2011-12, around $15.5billion was invested in off-the-plan developments, either by overseas buyers or by development companies marketing to overseas buyers.  Compare this to the $500 billion in mortgage financing for property purchases recorded by the ABS in the year to November 2012 -- overseas buyers represent just 3% of the residential property market.   The most significant issue for property investors emanating from a weaker dollar is the potential flow-on for inflation and mortgage rates.

"Unless there is a precipitous decline in the Australian dollar, there is little to worry local property investors.  But large declines do happen from time to time."

Population Growth

Population growth and employment drives house price growth.  Population decreases and unemployment causes property prices to fall.  The following statistics are relevant.

SouthPoint

After delays and false starts, it now appears that SouthPoint at SouthBank is ready for a sales launch.  See this site and this site, for example.  The development is on Grey Street, opposite the Galleria and next to the train line, on what has been called the Collins Place site.

According to sales agents, the SouthPoint building has three sections, arranged vertically.  The central section will be an Emporium Hotel, with residential apartment sections on either side (called the North and South cores).  On the rooftop will be a 25m wet edge infinity pool, a day spa with massage rooms, hairdressing and manicure options, a roof top bar and gymnasium.

From what I have been told, in the South core, the one bedroom apartments range from $425,000 with a Southern aspect and no car parking, to $560,000 for the top level facing the river with a car park.  The one bedroom apartments are all less than 60 sqm in size.  Two bedroom apartments in the South core start at $645,000 for a lower level rear apartment facing the railway line to around $840,000 for the top level river and city view apartment.  These two bedroom apartments are all less than 80 sqm internal size, so are much smaller than similar apartments in Saville (Mantra) SouthBank.  Compare also apartments in Quay West, where one bedroom one car apartments are about 73 sqm, and sell for about $450,000 with river views and furniture.

In the North core, there are three bedroom apartments that range between $1.7million and $3.8 million. These appear to be large apartments.

Apartments on the rear of the building face West, looking over the train line.  There are surrounding buildings, so to get a good view, you will want to be on a higher floor.

This development is by Anthony John Group, who is doing lower priced apartments in Cannon Hill.  Their apartments in the Valley Emporium development were not, in my opinion, high quality apartments.  It seems that SouthPoint will have three levels of finishes, so care must be taken to ensure that you understand what level of finish will apply to each apartment.

Festival Towers lawsuit

Many owners of apartments in Festival Towers in Brisbane, and the body corporate, are suing Devine Limited and Brookfield Multiplex Constructions for a large amount of damages concerning the construction (and alleged construction defects) in Festival Towers.  Details of the lawsuit can be found here on the Supreme Court website.  I have been told that there have been special body corporate levies to partially fund the lawsuit.

Any prospective purchaser should have their lawyers study the lawsuit paperwork, including the schedule of defects, in detail.

At the time of development and construction of Festival Towers, Devine Limited was run by David Devine, with Ken Woodley as the senior person on the sales side.  Devine and Woodley are now running Metro Property Group, which is a marvellous sales machine.

Festival Towers, managed by Oaks, doesn't have the greatest feeling in my view.  Partly short term accommodation and partly foreign students (packed into small apartments, and sleeping in hallways and living rooms), and a popular place for travelling hookers, Festival Towers has always disappointed me.

In my opinion, purchasing apartments off-the-plan has risks, because you don't know the level of quality that will actually be delivered.  The sales contract is most often in the developer's favour.  In a number of circumstances, I have seen glossy brochures inferring high quality, but the product that is delivered is low quality.  For this reason, I always take that view that off-the-plan pricing should be less than current market pricing to take into account this risk.  Unfortunately, most developers are selling apartments off-the-plan at prices that are higher than you could buy an existing similar apartment -- the only difference being age.

An agent I spoke to recently who was selling off-the-plan informed me that his competition was not other new developments, but resale apartments in recently finished buildings by the same developer.  He said the price of the resale apartments was about 15% less than his almost identical new, under construction apartments.  And buying an existing apartment is way less risky than purchasing off-the-plan.

Recent Apartment Sales in Downtown Brisbane

Evolution
  Apt 171, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $310,000
Grosvenor
  Apt 107 - $1.3M
Skyline
  Apt 61, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $715,000
  Apt 94, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $790,000
  Apt 363, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $587,500
Charlotte Towers
  Apt 3206, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $335,000
  Apt 3508, 1 bed, 1 bath, no car - $317,000
  Apt 4009, 1, bed, 1 bath, no car - $347,000
Metro 21
  Apt 3001, 2 bed, 2 bath - $553,500
Quay West
  Apt 129, 3 bed, 3 car - $1M
Riverplace
  Apt 304, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $1M
  Apt 272, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $675,000
  2 bed, 2 bath - $527,000
Festival Towers
  2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $457,500
  Apt 1906, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - $309,000
Admiralty Quays
  Apt 78, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car - $920,000
  Apt 76, 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 car - $550,000
  Apt 46, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car - $780,000

Brisbane Property Prices Flat in FY12/13

Over the 2012/13 financial year, Brisbane had a 0.6% increase in property values, according to RP Data.  This is less than inflation.   And below the Australian capitals average.  Not a good result, but better than going backwards.

LA property prices in dramatic increase

I was recently looking a property in the LA area of California.  When a house I was looking at was listed for sale, about 20 written offers were received.  I was amazed.
Recent stories in the LA Times state that there is a property boom (or property undersupply) in parts of LA.
See:  Low Inventory and 28% Increase.
There was also a jump in the median sales price in San Francisco.

Brisbane Underperforms

Brisbane has been the worst performing city in Australia when it comes to capital gains for housing, looking over the last 5 years.  In fact, there have been, on average capital losses for the past 5 years.

Looking back 10 years, rather than 5 years, things look a little better.  But people who have purchased in Brisbane the last 6 years are doing badly today.

South side apartment developments

I received an email from an agent selling apartments off-the-plan, listing four current projects.  Here are the details that were sent to me.

Fish Lane Apartments

-          48 Apartments at corner of Melbourne and Cordelia Street, South Brisbane;

-          Brisbane State High School catchment area

-          Currently under construction (completion to 5^th floor) and expected settlement on December 2013.

-          Bosch appliance (gas cooktop, microwave, oven, dishwasher) and dryer inclusive

-          One bedroom apartments with car – sold out

-          Two bedrooms two bath one car apartments North East city view facing Level 5 from $595,000

Edge Apartments 

-          48 Apartments at Manning Street, South Brisbane

-          Brisbane State High School catchment area

-          Currently complete demolishment and expected settlement late 2014

-          Bosch appliance (gas cooktop, microwave, oven, dishwasher) and dryer inclusive

-          One bedroom apartment with car – sold out

-          Two bedroom two bath one car apartment South-West facing Level 1 and 2 from $555,000

-          Current promotion with $25,000 cash back at settlement or $10,000 cash back and full furniture pack

Arena Apartments 

-          191 Apartments at Edmonstone Street, South Brisbane

-          Brisbane State High School catchment area

-          Currently commence construction, expected settlement Dec 2014 to Feb 2015

-          Bosch appliance (gas cooktop, oven, dishwasher) and dryer inclusive

-          One bedroom apartment with car - $390,000 Only two left

-          Two bedroom one bath one car - $520,000 at Level 5

-          Two bedroom two bath two cars with 86m2 internal and 45m2 court yard - $645,000 at Podium Level

-          Three bedroom full upgrade Skyhomes with three cars - $1.45m, $1.7m and $1.75m three available

Glass Factory

-          47 Apartments at Vulture Street, West End

-          Brisbane State High School catchment area

-          VIP Launching on 7^th September

-          One bedroom with car from $370,000

-          Two bedroom two bathroom with car from $555,000

-          Three bedroom two bath two car with city view at high levels from $825,000 

Auctions Not Popular in Brisbane

In Melbourne, many properties are sold by auction.  In Brisbane, less properties go to auction, and auctions are less successful.  I find it interesting that some agents really push vendors to have auctions -- often leading to unhappy vendors.

See RP Data report