Portside at Hamilton

The Portside Promenade apartment building is now complete.  The developer is advertising that 80% is sold, with the remaining 20% up for sale.  The developer is providing a discount of $20,000 off the list price, but I guess the discount will be higher if a cash offer is made.

Trouble In Paradise - Soul

The Soul apartment development in Surfers Paradise went into receivership today, most likely due to a large number of unsold apartments, pre-completion off the plan contracts that did not settle, and a falling Gold Coast market.  This is not a surprise.  The Oracle development at Broadbeach went into receivership last year.  At Soul, receivers were appointed over a number of Juniper companies.  Graeme Juniper, who developed a number of apartment complexes on the Sunshine Coast, bit off more than he could chew and got his timing wrong.  See Soul in Receivership

M&A Update

The M&A (McLachlan & Ann) mixed use development is under construction on Ann Street in the Valley.  The commercial tower has topped out, and is currently being fitted out for commercial tenants, with a move-in date expected in March 2013.  The residential tower is up to level 8 out of 21 levels, and is reported to be on schedule for completion in late 2013.  From the photo below, it can be seen that the towers are in a commercial area of the Valley, so it will be interesting to see how a residential development changes the character of this area.  It also appears that the residential adjoins the commercial tower in an L-shaped configuration, which blocks some of the aspect from some of the apartments.

Low Vacancy Rate in Brisbane

Residential rental vacancy rates have remained tight across Queensland, according to the latest REIQ data.  Findings from the Institute’s September Residential Rental Vacancy Rate Survey, compiled from information and data by REIQ accredited real estate agencies, showed most major regions posting vacancy rates of 2.5 per cent or less in September.

According to REIQ, a vacancy rate of three per cent is considered to be the equilibrium point of supply and demand.

REIQ CEO Anton Kardash said vacancy rates were continuing to trend into undersupply territory as investor activity slowly swings back into life. 

"The rental market across Queensland has been constricted for more than two years now,’’ Mr Kardash said.  "The reasons for this have been the low numbers of investors in the marketplace as well as the generally slow property sales market over the period.  With the reduction in the numbers of properties being added to the rental pool, we are seeing more demand for a much smaller supply of properties."

The survey found the vacancy rate for Brisbane at the end of September was 1.7 per cent - down from 2.1 per cent three months before.  Inner Brisbane’s vacancy rate was 1.5 per cent – down from 1.6 per cent. Property managers from REIQ accredited agencies said that market activity was slower over the period as was the case historically. Interest was also highest for new properties.

Barefoot's Advice

From the BareFoot Investor email:

"You say that it's not good to be in too much debt. That makes a lot of sense to me, because I have two properties and I've just had a baby and I am in a huge amount of debt ... and ..."

And that was all she could get out before she started sobbing uncontrollably.

Turns out she works as an analyst at a major financial institution, and earns around $120,000 a year (i.e. she's not dumb, because dumb people generally don't earn six figures.)  Turns out she went to one of those property-flogging seminars I'm always warning you about - and ended up drawing the equity out of her home and buying a two-bedroom apartment in the currently deodorised armpit of Brisbane, for $490,000. Turns out that, after she signed the contract and bought the joint, she discovered she was pregnant. She wasn't in a committed relationship, but she'd made a commitment to her unborn child. She recognised that the financial stress was a danger to her pregnancy, so she decided to sell the property.

And guess what her half-a-million-buck apartment got passed in for at auction earlier this year?  $250,000.

This young woman is all alone. She has a two-month-old baby. She's scared about their future. And there's no fairytale ending coming her way. Despite improving property conditions, she's been stitched up good and proper.

Lang Walker's View - No risk of housing bubble

From the AFR on 17 October, page 43:  A story about property developer and investor, Lang Walker.

"I saw that one of the guys from the Reserve Bank came out and was worried about a bubble.  He mustn't get out of his office.  We're definitely not at any risk of a bubble.  It's almost the opposition."

On page 23, it was reported that Bank of Queensland, which lends to many Queenslanders, increased its bad and doubtful debt write-offs.  An Deutsche Bank analyst is reported as saying: "It is clear that conditions in SE Qld remain challenging and we believe that the bad debt environment for the banks over the next 12-24 months is likely to deteriorate."

Woolloongabba Doubt

Plans to sell and redevelop 10 hectares of prime Brisbane government-owned real estate have stalled in anticipation of a firm announcement about the Cross River Rail project. The Newman government has rejected the previous Labor government's plan to sell the valuable Goprint site at Woolloongabba to make way for a massive inner-suburb development. The site's future is now in limbo, with no decision on its redevelopment expected until the viability of Brisbane's proposed underground rail project is determined. See Brisbane Times

Prices to Recover in Brisbane?

According to BIS Shrapnel, Brisbane will have housing price growth of 3.9% in FY 2013, 7.8% in FY 2014, and 6.2% in FY 2015.

This is a very bullish prediction.  It is interesting to look back on past BIS Shrapnel predictions to see how accurate they are.  See e.g.:  Report from two years ago, that predicted 5.3% growth for July 2011 to June 2012 for Brisbane -- way out!

Below is an extract from the current report.

Brisbane or Spain?

"Mar de Canet’s 308 units were sold in less than 30 days last spring, mostly gobbled up by eager Spaniards finally getting a deal they could not resist: choice holiday homes for less than half the price of similar properties on the market. ...

So many people showed up on the first day the Canet apartments went on sale here that Jesús Martínez and his wife, who were at work and planning to look the next day, called their parents to rush over and lay a claim for them. The couple bought a two-bedroom unit with a terrace and a parking place for $92,000."

See Spaniards Grab Deals in Bank Sell-off of Homes

Infinity Retreats to Serviced Apartments

Meriton Apartments builds more than 1,000 units a year – recently it has shifted its attention to serviced apartments, holding back nearly half of the apartments in its 81-storey Infinity tower in the Brisbane CBD to be offered as serviced apartments.

Meriton boss Harry Triguboff says Chinese buyers are retreating from the market due to the high Australian dollar and uncertainty in China as its economy cools.  Triguboff says that in the last three months Chinese buying has subsided, replaced (in Sydney) by first-home buyers taking advantage of new state government handouts.

No one is sure why Brisbane did not immediately respond but it would seem that the severity of the state government cuts and the fears about what will happen to coal mining would have played a role. Again it is early days and addition a large part of the Brisbane building skills base is employed constructing the mines.

See Property Observer and Business Spectator

Smaller May Have Big Future

The headline in a story today in the Courier Mail property advertorial section:  "Smaller may have big future".  Some points made in this article:

• Buyer demand for new apartments in Brisbane is for smaller apartments
• Owner-occupiers prefer larger apartments
• But in the current market, most of the new apartment buyers are investors (about 85% of buyers) and investors are very price sensitive at present.
• "With no desire to live in the property they are buying, they are purely looking at the return, and the best returns can currently be found in one-bedroom apartments."
• In the current market, one bedroom apartments range from 45 sqm to 52 sqm and are priced from $345,000 to $425,000.
• "The ideal mix [for a new development] is 70% one bedroom apartments and 30% two bedroom apartment."

My strategy is never to buy an apartment that I would not live in myself.  I would not live in an apartment that was less than 70 sqm.  When owner occupiers decide to buy, there will be a shortage of larger two bedroom and three bedroom apartments in Brisbane.

In another article today, Matusik says that Brisbane's CBD has 24% few apartments on the market compared with this time last year.

Recent Brisbane Apartment Sales

Recent sales:

• Riparian, 71 Eagle Street, 3 bedrooms on level 44, sold for $2.3 million
• Charlotte Towers, 128 Charlotte St, Apt 1903, 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, sold for $465,000 (after being on the market for some time)
• River City, 79 Albert St, Apt 2706, 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, sold for $420,000
• River City, 79 Albert St, Apt 2106, 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, sold for $430,000
• Admiralty Towers One, 35 Howard Street, Lot 110, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, sold for $535,000
• Roma Street Parklands, Apt 6008, 3 bedrooms, sold for $1,220,000
• Riverplace, 82 Boundary Street, Apt 82, 2 bedrooms, sold for $645,000
• Casino Towers, 151 George Street, Apt 1604, 1 bedroom, sold for $347,000
• Festival Towers, 108 Albert St, Apt 3402, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, $495,000
• Aurora Towers, 420 Queen St, Apt 568, 2 bedrooms, $750,000

Gold Coast Down

HOUSE and apartment sales levels on the Gold Coast have dropped to the lowest level in more than two decades. The city's residential property market continues to endure "a relentless downturn" in the wake of the global financial crisis, according to a 30-year market review by PRD Nationwide.

See Gold Coast Bulliten

The Capitol Apartments

Forrester Properties is marketing The Capitol Apartments at South Brisbane.  Construction is under way, and according to documents provided by the sales agent, 70 of the 77 apartments have sold.

The development is located at 35 Peel Street, and backs right onto the rail line.  Peel Street is a busy access street for the Grey Street Bridge, and is not a residential neighbourhood.  So this is a pretty poor location in South Brisbane.

Although it is being sold as an apartment building, it is already being marketed as a hotel.  The sales agent says the the apartments are designed to be hotel rooms.  For example, looking at apartment 408, this is 68 sqm internal, and is a 2 bed 2 bath dual key apartment (i.e., a hotel room and a studio with a kitchen area along the wall).  One of the bedrooms does not have windows -- it is the back of the apartment, but as it is a hotel room, that probably doesn't really matter.  Although dual key, there is only one car park.  It is on level 4 and looks onto Peel Street.  If buying, care should be taken, because some banks will not lend for hotel room purchases.

Apat 408 is listed for sale at $608,000, including furniture.  This seems to be extremely expensive.  Better located better quality larger two bedrooms can be bought in near new buildings for about $100,000 less.

This apartment has a rental guarantee of $37,370 a year after agents fees, but before rates and body corporate.  So a net of about $31,500, or a return of 5% once stamp duty is taken into account.  (The developer misleadingly says that the net return is 6.15%, but ignores stamp duty, body corporate and rates when calculating the net return!)  At today's interest rates, this is still a loss.  And once the rental guarantee expires, I doubt that this small apartment will have a gross rent of more than $800 a week, which is what will be needed to accomplish similar returns to the rental guarantee.  (One can rent a furnished luxury 2 bedroom apartment at Saville/Mantra, which is 120 sqm, with river and city views, for less than $800 a week today.)

But it seems that Forrester did a good job marketing The Capitol Apartments, if 70 have been sold to date -- poorly located, small apartments that are really nondescript unbranded hotel  rooms for high prices.

Ugly Brisbane

Chris Joye had APM (a division of Fairfax) conduct an analysis to determine in which markets most buyers have lost or made money.  APM looked at all properties sold since January 2009, and conducted an EVR (electronic valuation) on each of these properties to determine if the current valuation was more or less than the purchase price.  In Brisbane 71% of properties sold since January 2009 were now worth less than the purchase price, according to APM's valuations.  Who says that you can't have a capital loss when buying property?

From my brief review of the property market in Brisbane (e.g., looking at listings and actual sales, talking with agents, making offers on properties, etc.) it seems to me that the situation in Brisbane is somewhat dire.  And it may not improve soon, and could get worse.  Even though interest rates are falling, a more important factor is employment -- and unemployment in Brisbane is on the increase.

See Chris Joye's Another Cut article.

Soul's Last Legs?

Juniper agents are doing the ring around, with the "price has dropped" call for Soul at Surfers Paradise. Sounds like signs of desperation.  How long until Soul goes the way of Hilton and Oracle, and heads into receivership?

Protest over Lot Entitlements Change

GOLD Coast association Voice of Unit Battlers is marshalling its troops to ensure the Newman Government hears the concerns of unit-owners about its community-title Bill.
President Philip Williams said the Bill "has the potential to make small units almost worthless" and their owners needed to make a stand.The organisation last week staged meetings at the Pinnacle and Q1 towers to encourage unit-owners to make submissions on the Bill to parliament's legal affairs committee.
See Article and Prior Post

RP Data update

If you are buying or selling in Brisbane, is your real estate agent telling you how bad the market actually is?  And it may not improve.  And it may get worse!  Click on slides above for bigger view.

Harry Dent says Brisbane is Biggest Bubble

"The greatest bubble in developed-country cities starts with Brisbane, Australia at 210% followed by 180% in Miami, 170% in L.A. and 165% in Vancouver. There are many cities that could see real estate drop 70% to 85%!"

See Forbes

Apartments v. Houses

"The apartment market is not just more affordable to enter than the detached housing market but apartments are growing in prevalence in inner city areas and along the transport spines of many large cities. These unit markets are typically located close to major working nodes and nearby to entertainment and dining facilities as well as being close to public transport amenity. This week’s Property Pulse looks at the median ‘value’ of houses and units across suburbs nationally and determines the suburbs where you can make the greatest savings if you choose to purchase a unit rather than a house."

from Sometimes it pays to choose a unit by RP Data

Brisbane Apartment Prices Still Going Backwards

Australian capital city home values continue to rise with a 1.4% jump in September.

The September RP Data Rismark Home Value Index results marked the fourth consecutive month-on-month rise in home values, further cementing the fact that a housing market recovery is underway.

Capital city dwelling values rose by 1.4 per cent over the month of September, the largest month-on-month rise recorded since March 2010.  Adelaide led the way with the strongest results where values were up 2.4 per cent, followed by Perth at 1.6 per cent over the month, Sydney at 1.5 per cent, Melbourne at 1.4 per cent and Brisbane values up 1.1 per cent.

Highlights over the quarter
Best performing capital city: Darwin
Weakest performing capital city: Hobart
Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 6% and Darwin Units at 6%
Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yields of 3.6% and Melbourne units at 4.3%
Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $522,000

However, Brisbane apartments did not do so well.

Brisbane apartment prices:
September 2012 - down 0.8%
Quarter - down 0.8%
Year to Date - down 2.7
Year on Year - down 4.5%
Median price based on settled sales of Brisbane apartments over the quarter - $385,000.

Meriton Infinity - Under Construction

Some recent photos of Meriton's Infinity apartment building in Brisbane, currently under construction.  When complete, this will be Brisbane's tallest residential tower, at 81 floors.  So I guess it is about half way now.

Infinity on the left, with Evolution Apartments on the right.  This was taken about two weeks ago.

Infinity behind Evolution Apartments, with Federal Court building in the foreground.  Taken this weekend.

From Roma Street Parklands, with one of the Pradella Parkland apartment buildings on the right.

From Roma Street Parklands

Many Property Clocks

"There are some signs of a recovery in the Brisbane property market, but it still remains firmly in a downswing , with investors seeking bargains in the unit market as new apartment projects are completed, says WBP Property Group. WBP places the Brisbane housing and unit market at five o’clock on the property clock.

“Many purchasers who have bought off the plan have seen prices come off from original date of contract. Investors still remain wary as to when the bottom will be and are on the lookout for a bargain buy,” says WBP

See Brisbane Downswing

So we have some commentators saying that Brisbane is at 12 noon (top of the market, and set to fall) and others saying it is "on the cusp of improvement", and now at five o'clock.  Who really knows?  These are all just guesses.  Your guess is as good as theirs.

Decline in Proportion of Apartment Sales

"Although units offer a significantly lower price point at which to enter the housing market, the vast majority of sales across the country are for detached houses as opposed to units. The recently released 2011 Census data showed that 75.6% of occupied dwellings were houses highlighting that they well and truly remain the dominant housing type.

Over recent years there has been a decline in the proportion of units sold, both nationally and at a capital city level. The decline can partially be attributed to the fact that more recent off-the-plan unit sales don’t enter into our figures until they reach settlement. The decline may also be as a response to first home buyer grants and stamp duty concessions that have been available, as well as recent falls in home values which has improved affordability. Unit values have typically recorded lower value declines than that of houses and this may be leading to buyers taking the opportunity to buy houses as opposed to units."

RP Data: Why has the proportion of unit sales declined since 2009?

Self managing landlords

One issue for landlords who self manage is obtaining access to RealEstate.com.au.  REA only allows agents to list properties for rent.  Domain.com.au allows individual landlords to list a property for rent.  In Brisbane, more people seem to use REA than Domain (although I suggest to people looking to rent to search both sites.)  Now there is a service that allows self-managing landlords to list on REA.  See eezirent.com.au

Ten Percent Under Water in Queensland

"Ten percent of Queensland homes are currently worth less than or equal to their purchase price while 36 percent are worth more than double the purchase price.  At the same time a year ago, 5.3 percent of homes were worth less than or equal to their purchase price and 39.3 percent of homes were worth more than double their purchase price.  These results highlight the growing impact of the continued underperformance of the Queensland housing market."

From RP Data Accumulation Report, June 2012 Quarter (Report released September 2012)

Brisbane is slightly better than the Queensland statistics.

Kings Row, Milton Development

Investa has gained approval for a property development on busy Coronation Drive in Milton, backing on to McDougal Street.  The three office buildings currently on the site will be demolished, and replaced with two residential buildings containing 293 apartments and two office buildings.  I wonder how these buildings will impact the views from FKP's The Milton project.  Details here.

Hilton Surfers Paradise Price Slice

Hilton Surfers Paradise Apartments advised "up to 34% off":

• Level 29, 2 bedroom, 119 sqm, was $1,185,000, now $840,000
• Level 38, 3 bedroom, 147 sqm, was $1,750,000, now $1,300,000
• Level 30, 2 bedroom, 100 sqm, was $1,000,000, now $685,000

According to Ray White Surfers Paradise, "the Chinese and Singaporeans have saved the Gold Coast property market" because "Australians have stopped buying over the last three years" in projects such as The Hilton and The Oracle.

Advertised Rents

In today's Courier Mail and on REA, the following new developments had apartments that were advertised for rent:

• Mirvac's Park apartments at Newstead - 2 beds at $700 a week; 3 beds at $1000 a week; 1 bed furnished at $650 a week
• Pradella's Urban Edge at Kelvin Grove - 1 bed from $345 a week; 2 beds from $485 a week
• Metro Property's The Chelsea at Bowen Hills - 1 bed for $405 a week; or $324 via NRAS; 2 bedrooms from $510 a week

Brisbane Apartment Recent Auction Results

River Place - 82 Boundary Street, Apt 192, 2 bedrooms, sold for $605,000
Aurora - 420 Queen Street, Apt 286 - passed in
Skyline, 30 Macrossan Street, Apt 304 - passed in
Admiralty Quays, 32 Macrossan Street, Apt 95 - passed in

Recent Sales - Arbour on Grey

Some recent sales for Arbour on Grey, at Grey Street, South Bank.  This building was developed by Mirvac about 10 years ago.

Apt 2103, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car parks, level 1: $800,500
Apt 2223, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1 car park, level 2: $610,000
Apt 2320, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1 car park, level 3: $660,000
Apt 2225, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 1 car park, level 2: $400,000

This complex rents well.  Currently, there are no apartments available for rent in Arbour on Grey.

There is a 2 bedroom apartment currently for sale for $630,000.

Increase in Sales of One Bedroom Apartments in Brisbane

"Research from Colliers and Place Projects reveals that there were 1,065 new project apartment sales Brisbane in 2007 and 1,278 in 2011.  The average sale price in 2007 was $688,000 with 54% of new units being 2 bed, 22% were 1 bed, 18% were 3 bed and 6% were penthouses or the like.

The average sale price in 2011 was $560,000 with 45% of new units being under $550,000 (mostly 1 beds), 46% between $550,000 and $750,000 (mostly 2 beds) and only 9% for larger units. The sale of more affordable 1 bed units jumped from 22% to probably near 40%.  This accounted for the drop in the average sale price."

Who Is Buying Inner City Apartments in Brisbane in the Current Market

One57 in New York

"One57, a 306-metre tower under construction in Midtown Manhattan, will soon hold the title of New York's tallest building with residences. But without fanfare from its ultraprivate future residents, it is cementing a new title: the global billionaires' club. The buyers of the nine full-floor apartments near the top that have sold so far — among them two duplexes under contract for more than $90 million each — are all billionaires, Gary Barnett, the president of the Extell Development Co., the building's developer, said this week. The other seven apartments ranged in price from $45 million to $50 million. The billionaires' club includes several Americans, at least two buyers from China, a Canadian, a Nigerian and a Briton, according to Barnett and brokers who have sold apartments in the building, at 157 West 57th Street."

Full story here

SkyView Apartments at Urban Edge

Pradella has commenced a soft marketing launch of Skyview Apartments, the third building in the Urban Edge development at Kelvin Grove.  Priced from $345,000.  Settlement expected in late 2014.

Prices Up? But sales volumes are down

""Real estate is a confidence thing and confidence gets zapped by uncertainty and all the information we've been getting from overseas and at home has certainly zapped confidence."  Mr Kardash also noted the median house price provided a limited snapshot of the property field, because the figure could often be skewed by an inordinate number of sales at either the low or top end of the market in a given time period.  Like Mr Matusik, he said the 4.7 per cent drop in the median house price in the 12 months to June this year reflected the majority of activity which occurred at the lower end of the market.

Mr Kardash said the Brisbane market was on the "cusp of improvement", although he noted the middle price range remained relatively stagnate.

"Just recently the market's seen a little bit of a pick-up in the very top end ... but for us, we'd be looking at all three price ranges to be showing an improvement before you could call that the industry was on the way up," he said.

Brisbane Times