RP Data's Quarterly Review

From RP Data's Quarterly Review for the December 2o1o Quarter, released February 2011:

Overall, the fourth quarter of 2010 has been characterised by continuing soft conditions within the residential property market whilst Australia's economic conditions are the envy of many other developed countries. For 2011 we are forecasting minimal property value growth as the market continues to transition out of the growth phase and from a market favouring the vendor to one where buyers are back in the driver's seat.

• Brisbane's capital gains have been well below the combined capital city average since the start of 2009. Compared to Brisbane's longterm and medium term gains, the last 12 months has recorded a very weak performance.
• Average discount levels currently sit at 8.6 percent for houses and 6.6 percent for units and at the same time during 2009 discount levels were recorded at 5.4 percent for houses and 4.5 percent for units.
• Houses in Brisbane are currently taking an average of 60 days to sell whilst units take 55 days. In comparison, 12 months prior houses took 40 days and units 37 days to sell.
• Of those Brisbane dwellings sold during the last year vendors had on average owned houses for 8.1 years and units for 6.4 years.
• Brisbane's population was estimated to sit at just above 2 million persons at June 2009 and has grown at 2.7 percent over the 12 months, or by an estimated 52,104 persons.
• During the last 12 months, value growth has been significantly lower than five year and ten year average levels with house values falling by 1.1 percent and unit values falling by 0.2 percent. Across the capitals, only Perth has recorded lower capital growth during the year.

• There has been an improvement in unit rentals during the last quarter, increasing by 6.9 percent whilst house rents have softened by 1.0 percent.
• With rents easing over the last year they remain well below their peak of $413/week for houses whilst unit rents are currently at an all-­‐time high.

• Gross rental yields have generally been falling since the beginning of 2009 however, there has been some recent improvement with yields recorded at 4.3 percent for houses and 5.3 percent for units.

Flood Map

Here is another Brisbane flood map for January 2001. It does not easily tell you which buildings had basements that filled with water.

Soleil Marketing

A sign in the Soleil window has the following information.

Vendor finance - 5%

Prices as at January 2011

Studio - from $341,000 - estimated rent $330 to $380 per week

1 bedroom no parking - from $363,000 - estimated rent $400 to $470 per week

2 bedroom with parking -from $550,000 -estimated rent $550 to $650 per week

2 bedroom plus study with parking - from $659,000 - estimated rent $600 to $700 per week

3 bedroom with double parking - from $840,000 - estimated rent $800 to $950 per week.

Expected occupancy dates - levels 2 to 39: mid 2011. levels 40 to 64: early 2012

Compare rents in Admiralty Towers One, nearby.

1 bedroom, furnished with carpark - $520 per week

2 bedroom, unfurnished with carpark - $550 per week

2 bedroom, furnished, with car park & river views - $640 per week

So I think that Meriton's rent estimate is a little optimistic.

They are offering a 7% rent guarantee for 5 years on the 1 bedrooms. That suggests that the sales price is overpriced.

Devine Half Year Results

Extracts from presentation to investors:

• Strong market response to Hamilton Harbour project with third tower sales progressing well
• Hamilton Harbour (Towers One & Two) construction advancing well, with construction of third tower targeted for mid-2011 commencement
• Hamilton Harbour has continued to attract strong sales and enquiry with: - 92% of apartments in the first two stages at unconditional contract status, and 49% of Stage 3 now sold and unconditional
• Hamilton Harbour Tower One is progressing well with structural cycles completing verticals up to floor 14 and slabs up to floor 12
• Tower Two is close to entering structural cycles which will see the structure advance noticeably from this point in the coming months
• First apartments expected to be completed by December 2011

• New opportunity secured; 107 apartment project in Teneriffe, Brisbane CBD fringe (Commercial Road - 107 apartments (1 and 2 bedroom only), marketing to commence in second half of 2011)
• New project signals Devine’s ability to apply high density residential capabilities to mid-scale, medium density opportunities

Receivers Move into Outrigger Noosa apartment development

Another Noosa property development has collapsed. This time, it is the Viridian Noosa Resort & Spa. This is a resort, in the hills behind Noosa, that had 198 apartments. Less than 40 were sold in four years -- leaving a massive 160 unsold.

This is not a surprise. The development was not in a great location, a walk up the hill from Hastings Street. The pool area is unimpressive. Most of the rooms look at an internal driveway, or scrublands. No ocean views here. See this review. The price was about $550,000 to $700,000 for a one bedroom apartment with no view.

Viridian is managed by Outrigger, and was developed by Leighton and Macquarie.

Other recently failed Noosa projects include: Elysium Noosa, Noosa Sanctury, Noosa Northshore, Noosa Beach Road (selling well below list price) and Noosa Firstlight. See SmartCompany.

Macrossan, Soleil and Skyline

The photo above shows, from the left, the tops of Macrossan Apartments, Soleil (under construction), Skyline, then Admiralty Quays and River Place apartment.

The photo below shows, from the left, Soleil and then Macrossan Apartments. You can glimpse Skyline in between. The entry way in the bottom centre is the Macrossan Apartments lobby.

Pets and Apartments - A different spin

Contrary to popular wisdom, having a pet in your apartment during an open home when trying to sell it will help. See Pets Help Sell Manhattan Apartments.

Mosaic The Valley

Leightons has released a new representative image for the Mosaic The Valley apartment project on Ann Street. It is much blander with less greenery than previously visioned. The building appears to be closer to road, as the footpaths are narrower. The new image is above. The old image is below, and an older view is located here.

Mosaic is being developed by Leighton, which owns about half of Devine and is a constructing Hamilton Harbour with Devine.

Mosaic was launched in October 2009. It has 212 apartments, most of which are relatively small. Advertised today as 1 bedrooms starting at $365,000 and two bedroom starting at $540,000. No pool.

Australand reports...

Mr Fehring, Australand's executive general manager, residential, is reported in the AFR today as saying the margins were improving. However, the Queensland floods had "dampened activity and sentiment in an already subdued market."

Sunland Cautious

A headline in the AFR today: "Sunland cautious about year ahead." The story has the following information:

• Sunland remains cautious as buyer activity plateaus and uncertainty about the economy prevails.
• Consumers have adjusted their price points and are more cautious and conservative.
• Sunland is not building any Gold Coast high rise, and plans for a residential tower in Labrador have been shelved due to 1200 new units languishing on the market.
• The Carrington apartment project on Alice Street in Brisbane is well timed, with little competition for upmarket owner occupier-style CBD projects due for completion in 2012-13.
• Affordability has been a key issue. Discounts of 20 and 30 percent have been offered to secure transactions.

Gold Coast Real Estate Ad

Well, this is an adventurous way to advertise a property. See You Tube.

Looking at Devine

The AFR reports today that Leighton Holdings is considering selling its under performing investments such as it 49% shareholding in property developer Devine.

See also Reuters and The Australian

Investing in the Brisbane Property Market?

If you are planning on investing in the Brisbane property market, then take care! This blog focuses on apartments, primarily in inner city Brisbane. Some thoughts:

1. There are less overseas students wanting to rent apartments this year. This trend will continue.

2. There are less investors willing or able to purchase apartments, particularly high end apartments.

3. A number of people in their 50s and 60s, who may have considered purchasing an apartment to live in (downsizing) or as an investment are not buying at present. Either their super funds have less money than they hoped, they are more risk adverse, or banks will not lend. Also, people who were looking at riverfront apartments have paused buying decisions due to the floods.

4. There are a huge number of apartments on the way. At current sales rates, it will take years to sell these apartments. Many are small 1 or 2 bed apartments. Would you want to live in them? See list of apartments currently being built or being sold.

5. Many are predicting no capital growth this year; some a predicting 10% decrease in values, some predicting 35% decrease in values. This makes buyers nervous. Many are waiting. Maybe prices will not go down -- who knows? But there is no urgency in buying, and those who are making offers on investment properties are doing so at a significant discount to the list price. So sellers are not selling, and the number of apartments listed for sale is increasing. The only sellers who are selling are those who are dead, heading for bankruptcy, are bankrupt, are getting divorced or have lost their job. So it is hard to work out what the market price for a property (willing but not desperate seller; willing but not overly keen buyer) is actually doing at present. Maybe if salaries increase and unemployment does not decrease, then prices will go up? I hear that 25 year old storemen and labours in central Queensland are earning $150,000 a year plus overtime -- and are buying investment properties.

6. Rental returns on apartments are average. Interest rates, council rates, water charges and body corporate levies are increasing, thus decreasing net returns. This decreases property values.

7. The Gold Coast is dead dead dead. There are a huge number of unsold apartments in The Oracle. Juniper's Soul is coming up to settlement soon, and smart money is betting that it will end up like The Oracle. Juniper must be sweating. And Gold Coast apartment returns will take a dive, because fewer tourists are coming to the Gold Coast. What does this mean for Brisbane? Bad news about the Gold Coast impacts the mood of investors in Brisbane, and of interstate and international investors thinking about investing in Brisbane.

So not a good time to sell. And probably worth while waiting to buy. But if you listen to the real estate agents, who only make money if you buy, they will tell you otherwise.

New Apartment Projects In Brisbane

This is my list of actual and pending apartment projects in inner city Brisbane.

1. Macrossan Apartments, located behind Skyline and the Admiralty buildings. Not river front. 37 levels. Full floor apartments on higher levels -- 3 bedrooms plus study, about 250 sqm internal, with small balcony. High level of finishes. Expensive. See typical floor plan. The main bedroom looks right into Skyline -- not much privacy here. The apartment on level 26 will be auctioned (by the developer it seems) on 3 March 2011. The building is complete, but it seems that less than half the apartments have sold.

2A. Soleil, by Meriton. Next door to Macrossan, and also behind Skyline, is Soleil. Currently under construction. Over 400 apartments; 74 floors. Currently at about level 55. The developer will keep the management rights; and will keep ownership of a large number of apartments on higher floors. This, in my opinion, creates many issues for owners, so take care. Will be settled in stages, with lower floors settling first. This is a B grade development in my view.

Photos of Soleil under construction: Photo of Soleil, Macrossan and Skyline; photo of the 3 Admiralty buildings, River Place, Skyline, with Macrossan to the side and Soliel growing from behind above Skyline.

2B. Infinity, by Meriton. Located in the Roma Street area, behind but to tower over Evolution. 77 floors of apartments, so this will be a massive height for Brisbane, but the actual floor plate is not that large. Currently in off the plan sales - see brochure. The hole for the carpark has been dug, but the building itself is not yet under construction. With 2 bedroom apartments starting at $590,000, this looks to be expensive. Again, the developer will keep the management rights and a number of apartments in the building, so take care.

3. Sunland's "Carrington" development on corner of Alice Street and Albert Street. This development recently received Council approval. 47 floors of high end apartments. Will cast shadow over Botanical Gardens, which is not good for the public. If you read all the controversy about Q1 on the Gold Coast, I hope that Sunland does a better job on its first Brisbane apartment building. The AFR reports that construction will start when 50% of the 257 apartments have been pre-sold.

4. Devine's proposed development, on the corner of Margaret Street and Albert Street, at 30 Albert Street. This is right behind the Sunland development mentioned above. A development application was lodged on Christmas Eve, 2010, so this will be some way off. 37 floors, 420 apartments, 1 and 2 bed apartments only. Looks like another Charlotte Towers.

5. The Midtown, on Charlotte Street, opposite Charlotte Towers. Currently in pre-sales; demolition has started onsite. One and two bedroom apartments. 29 floors of apartments.

6. The Chelsea and Madison on Mayne, by Metro Property Developments. These apartment buildings are both in Bowen Hills, and contain 286 and 242 apartments. Metro is associated with David Devine and Ken Woodley, both ex-Devine. Their most recent development was Charlotte Towers, where (as reported elsewhere in this blog) capital growth has been on average about 1% and many purchasers off the plan have lost money. So if they follow the same approach, the developers will profit, but not the initial purchasers. It is interesting to read this. These apartments do not have development approval. (Metro is also planning on Brooklyn on Brookes, in the Valley. (Also, Richmond at Bowen Hills by another developer.)

7. Mosaic in the Valley, still waiting for development approval. 20 floors, about 250 apartments. Currently being sold off-the-plan.

8. McLachlan & Ann in the Valley. 234 apartments, currently being sold off the plan.

9. Kevlin Grove Urban Village: A bunch of apartment buildings under construction, including 3 buildings by Pradella (branded as Urban Edge); and Edenview; and Binary Apartments.

10. SouthPoint at SouthBank. 20 floors.

11. Newstead River Park - about 15 apartment buildings planned, with Mirvac completing "Pier" shortly, and "Park" in presales. FKP plans to build The Gasworks.

12. Northshore Hamilton (many developers, with a large number of apartments planned), Hamilton Reach (in presales) and Hamilton Harbour (three apartment buildings by Devine, currently under construction) and Portside by Multiplex (one building under construction, at least one more planned); and Rivana (by Citimark).

13. Rive at Albion/Breakfast Creek (under construction, but flooded). Two towers of apartments.

14. Waters Edge at West End. Developed by Pradella. (stage one complete; stage two under construction). Basement and pool area flooded.

15. FKP's The Milton at Milton. Was in off the plan sales. Display flooded.

16. The Capitol Apartments, South Brisbane. Currently in off-the-plan sales.

17. Yungaba Apartments, Kangaroo Point. Currently in construction, but delayed due to floods.

18. Montague West End - site flooded, and website not active.

19. The Apple, in the CBD. Small building on 1 bedroom apartments.

20. Belise, St Paul's Terrace, in the Valley. In presales, off the plan.

Flood Impact to Values

"Valuations on Brisbane homes are expected to decline in the aftermath of the floods, although the final impact for house prices remains unclear. RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher believes Brisbane house prices could fall by as much as 10 per cent over the next few years, but that's against a backdrop of flat house prices nationwide.

“There will be an impact on property located further away from river and low-lying areas that may back onto a creek. People in those areas will find it much harder to sell those properties,” said the Brisbane-based researcher.

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“In the short term, I think there could be some pain. If you don't need to sell, don't.”

Mr Kusher’s estimate of a 10 per cent drop is optimistic compared to Queensland University of Technology’s Professor Chris Eves, who predicted a drop of up to 35 per cent over the next 12 months.

Professor Eves also believes those in low-lying areas away from the river will suffer most.

...

The impact from the flood, which submerged nearly 15,000 homes, has forced valuers to reconsider assumptions about the risks and impact of once-in-a-century level inundations.

University of Queensland property studies professor Clive Warren said he wouldn't be surprised by a fall as much as 10 per cent on properties after the floods.

“Properties below that 1-in-100 [year] line will be blighted to some degree,” he said.

“They may well come off their prices. And people may well choose to go elsewhere.”

Professor Warren said numerous valuers expected a fall of as much as 10 per cent in these properties.

Brisbane home prices have already been tracking sideways for a year. Most recently, they dropped 0.5 per cent in the three months to December, seasonally adjusted, according to RP Data/Rismark. They were at a median price of $435,000, compared to a 0.4 per cent gain in national home prices in the same period, to a median price of $475,000."

See Brisbane Times and also Brisbane Business News

Property Plunge Could Reach 35%

Capital Growth

The potential for future capital growth remains the number one incentive for Queensland property investors, according to new research from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

The REIQ conducted buyer and seller behaviour research late last year which found capital growth was the top reason for buying an investment property in Queensland for 74 per cent of buyers.

The next most common reasons to buy investment property were to fund retirement; for negative gearing purposes; as a means of deriving an income stream; or because they believed it offered a better long term return than shares or super.

Gold Coast Auction Update

The AFR had a headline this week: "Gold Coast results highlight weakness". There were several auction events last weekend on the Gold Coast. Some agencies had clearance rates as low as 10% according to the AFR. The Ray White Sunday auction sold $12.4M worth of property, 41 sales from 103 listings, with an average sales price of $312,000.

A Circle on Cavill penthouse sold for $2.5M, originally sold off the plan for $5.95M. The Gold Coast press calls this a positive sign! How is making a loss of almost $4M a positive sign?

A large Q1 apartment, 3104, sold for $575,000 furnished, less than the mid $600Ks paid for this apartment unfurnished by the previous owner. See photo above.

Two Soul apartments (still off the plan) failed to attract bidders.

The Gold Coast press says that things are looking up! Can anyone explain to me why a large capital loss is a good thing?

Flood Clean Up Costs

A number of buildings are now realising the costs of flood clean up. I have heard of costs ranging from $400,000 to $10M, depending on the damage. Even buildings with slight damage appear to have huge clean up costs.

Body corporate committees are discussing special levies, in the thousands, for each unit owner.

From what I have heard, some unit owners are obtaining legal advice. Often, the body corporate manager recommends the insurance policy (and takes a large commission). So there is talk of suing the body corporate manager for the loss. In many cases, the developers appear to have been negligent as to where they placed critical equipment. So there may be lawsuits against developers and body corporate managers.

See this article about the Tennyson Reach flood cleanup costs.

Oaks In Financial Troubles?

Oak's financial model is very precarious. Oaks makes its profit from renting apartments owned by others. All owners of apartments that Oaks manage as their real estate agent can terminate their appointment of Oaks on 90 days notice or less.

Extension to Finance Facilities

Oaks has successfully obtained an extension of its finance facilities to 28 February 2011 as it works through a refinancing process. Oaks' debt levels as at 31 December 2010 is approximately $76 million. Oaks is trying to raise not less than $15 million to be applied towards debt reduction.

Receivers appointed to one of Oaks' substantial shareholders

On 27 January 2011, a notice was lodged with ASX by the receives and managers of The Oaks Apartment Management Pty Ltd and Centrepoint Holdings Pty Ltd, companies associated with the CEO of Oaks, Mr Brett Pointon. These two companies hold over 36% of Oaks' share capital.

Oaks' shares dropped 23% on Friday. See The Age & Courier Mail story.

Colin Archer from Archers Body Corporate Services is a director of Oaks.

Oaks is the onsite caretaker and letting agent for Charlotte Towers, Festival Towers, Casino Towers and Felix.

Oaks profit crashed from $9.7m (2009) to $3.9M (2010). As a result, Oaks did some restructuring, including centralisation of all reservations (which is not always good for the landlords who have appointed Oaks to manage their apartment) and the formation of Housekeepers Pty Ltd as a profit centre in its own right to replace external cleaners and lift levels of service (which sounds like an admission that housekeeping and maintenance was not well done in the past). This raises issues for the body corporate and owners, if the onsite caretaker (Oaks) is contracting Housekeepers to do maintenance paid for by the body corporate.

Brett Pointon's company, Collections Enterprises Pty Ltd, purchased 4 management rights from Oaks in 2009, including 212 Margaret, which was badly damaged in the flood, and Lexicon.

Lots of related party transactions. Not good financial management by Pointon. He is trumpeted as the brains behind Oaks. Sounds like one should avoid doing business with Oaks or investing in Oaks!

From the Oaks website:

"The principles and ethics that firmly ground The Oaks Group were laid down by CEO Brett Pointon over many years of personal experience in strata-titled property management. The group’s impressive increase in its portfolio of properties under management since its foundation in the early 1990’s is thus anchored to astute knowledge of this unique industry. Known for his pro-active, hands on approach, Brett Pointon leads by example, creating an environment in which innovation in marketing is balanced by the utilisation of proven strategic planning systems."

Impact of Floods on Property in Brisbane

See The Australian

Floods - Before and After

See

http://www.abc.net.au/news/infographics/qld-floods/beforeafter.htm

and

http://www.abc.net.au/news/infographics/qld-floods/beforeafter2.htm

West End Developments - Flood Issues

""I am aware of four major unit development applications in West End along Montague Road that are currently being assessed by Council planners," said Cr Abrahams. “It is important to take the time to learn why residents of many of the unit blocks along the river in West End are still unable to return to their units. The flooding of the car parks and ground floor units of these apartment buildings was devastating for all unit owners,” said Helen Abrahams.

“Units are still without power, some without sewage services and so property managers have no option but to advise owners not to move back in. Some unit owners whose units were not flooded still do not know when they will be able to return to home," said Helen Abrahams.

“Clearly, it is necessary for a serious review of whether it is appropriate for high rise units along this river bank,” said Cr Abrahams."

Full Story

Serviced Apartments

"Although often maligned for poor returns, the serviced-apartment sector was boosted last year through the release of a CB Richard Ellis report that predicted the sector would become a dominant part of the accommodation market.

According to the report, 75 per cent of new accommodation projects either planned or under construction involve serviced apartments, partly because of the comparative cost benefits of serviced apartments to conventional hotels.

Serviced apartments were introduced to the Australian market in the 1970s and at present there are about 12 major operators that are estimated to provide about 25 per cent of all short-term accommodation."

From Article about Oaks Resorts buying the management rights for Mon Koko

Gold Coast Auctions

It has been reported that settlements for the $700 million Oracle Broadbeach apartment project on the Gold Coast are likely to be delayed by the Queensland floods.

This is because Brisbane lawyers working on the contracts are unable to return to their flooded city offices, according to the receiver for the project. ... Since October, about 180 of those presales had settled after values of Gold Coast apartments typically fell by 30 per cent since the global financial crisis.

Source: The Australian

It will be interesting to see the auction results for these apartments:

• Q1, Apt 5307
• Soul, Apt 3805
• Soul, 2805
• Circle On Cavill, Penthouse

Some of the Oracle apartments for sale:

• Apt 2405, $2.4M (or over $9K a sqm, which is outrageous!)
• Apt 2605, 2 bedrooms, $1.5M (note the 2006 off-the-plan price for this apartment was $1,320,000)
• Apt 1404, $795,000
• Apt 1505, $680,000
• Apt 1907, 2 bedrooms
• Apt 3401, 3 bedrooms, $1.5M
• Apt 3801, 3 bedrooms, $2.5M (or over $13K a sqm -- the vendor is on another planet!)
• Two bedroom at rear, $1.6M
• Two bedroom, $1.3M
• Two bedroom 27th floor, tower one
• One bedroom on 6th floor, just over $600,000
• One bedroom, tower 2 $800,000
• List of resales

Note that there are two towers: Tower 1 is 50 storey's, comprising 274 luxury apartments (faces the ocean with ocean views) whilst Tower 2 is 40 Storeys, and comprises 241 apartments (faces North East (behind Tower One)).

See also RealEstate Buzz

Flood Update

When driving down Coronation Drive tonight (Monday), some apartment buildings were dark and empty. This included Coronation Residences. Koko apartments at West End were dark, but I understand only the basement was flooded. (Update: As at Australia Day, Koko Apartments were still evacuated; and Pradella's Left Bank carpark was still closed.)

Koko video one, two and river

Eyewitness Photos of Apartments in Floods

Here are some online photos of Brisbane in the floods, showing various apartment buildings in the photos:

By David (showing Festival Towers and Vision hole)

By Kevin (showing Admiralty Two)

By John (showing downtown, Vue and South Bank)

By James (South Brisbane; includes videos)

By John (showing Parklands Sherwood and Fresh Toowong)

By Caron (West End)

By Peter (South Bank and Admiralty)

By Fabienne (Toowong and Regatta)

By Karolina (Admiralty)

By Stacey (city)

Pradella

I repeat this comment from a reader, who purchased at Parklands Sherwood from Pradella, the developer. I agree.

"One has to wonder how the planning controls that regulate development could be allowed to bypass the building flood heights of 1974.

The floods came perilously close to inundation through those long dark hours of the 11/12 January 2011. The townhouses were going under the Resident Manager was knocking on the doors advising all to evacuate. We all wondered what would be the outcome.
Pradella, I wonder….. who you fed your big fat envelope to! When you were spruking to purchasers that the 1974 flood height was to the level of the swimming pool and that the complex would be built 2.5 metres above this height so that there would never be any flood risk.
I was assured when I purchased my apartment Parklands @ Sherwood from Coldwell Banker the selling Agents for Pradella Developments that the complex would not flood as it was built 2.5 metres above the 1974 flood levels. Do you think I would ever waste my money buying an apartment which was in the 1974 flood zone.
Who do you hold responsible? The Developer Pradella, The Water Board!, and/or the Brisbane City Council who aided and abetted in the development.
Why did Queensland Water allow a massive discharge of 645,000 megalitres from Wivenhoe Dam on Tuesday, at the peak of the flood crisis.
Between cleaning up and moving out on Tuesday 12 January 2011, several owners have expressed dismay that the only people that Pradella’s on site Managers addressed was their 30 or so rental Property tenants not once in their address did anyone from PRADELLA acknowledge the huge financial losses now impacting the Owners, nor the disruption to living and the associated expenses imposed as a result of water inundation.
Somebody from Pradella maybe even Mr Kim Pradella himself should explain to property owners the true flood levels and the Council should consider why the development, should have been approved!
Confused – Angry Lot Owner"

Pradella's communication (and that off their onsite managers, Central Apartments, controlled by Pradella), has been hopeless. And it seems that Pradella has a habit of buying cheap land, and then developing. Low & behold, many Pradella apartments have flooded:

Parklands Sherwood: (from the Pradella website): ""20/01/11: Whilst an amazing effort has been undertaken by Building management, Developer staff, tenants and residents, friends of tenants and residents, volunteers and emergency service staff in progressing the cleanup, much work is still required. Damage to services is still being assessed and whilst we hope power may be restored to some of the areas soon, other services and facilities will take considerable time to return to normal.:

Waters Edge (from the Pradella website): "20/01/11: Whilst significant progress has been made on the cleanup effort, the building is still without power and telecommunications due to the damage to equipment in the basement. All residents and tenants have been evacuated and quite obviously due to power issues, the building is not liveable at this point.

West End Central (from the Pradella website): "21/01/11: The clean up continues and the car park is looking better each day. We are hopeful that the repair of the electrical switchboard will commence next week. 20/01/11: Regretfully little change or positive news from what was reported earlier this week. 18/01/11: Whilst no flooding occurred in the lobby, reception pool area or apartments, the property has still been severely affected.

Encore Toowong: Flooded

Tempo West End: Flooded

Left Bank West End: Flooded

Flow West End: Mildly Flooded

The Oracle - Update

SETTLEMENTS for the collapsed $700 million Oracle Broadbeach apartment project on the Gold Coast are likely to be delayed by the Queensland floods.

This is because Brisbane lawyers working on the contracts are unable to return to their flooded city offices, according to the receiver for the project. ... Since October, about 180 of those presales had settled after values of Gold Coast apartments typically fell by 30 per cent since the global financial crisis.

Source: The Australian

When the Water Recedes....

Extract from Brisbane Times article:

The flagging Brisbane property market was not forecast to make substantial gains in 2011. Optimistic forecasts pinned rises at less than five per cent. Property analyst Michael Matusik said the flood was a "game-changer", one that would place a hold on normal market conditions, but only temporarily.

He said the properties completely inundated in low-lying suburbs away from the river, including Rocklea, Oxley and Archerfield, would see a substantial decline in value, but only if they were put on the market before being totally restored.

Meanwhile, the value of the 850-odd exclusive riverfront properties would remain largely unchanged, he said.

"This property is tightly held and most owners are likely to renovate and stay put. Values along the Brisbane River, I don't think are likely to change much," he said.

Still a target

RP Data analyst Cameron Kusher believes future buyers would be motivated by "lifestyle choices" in suburbs including Rosalie, Paddington, Milton, Chelmer and Graceville.

"Buyers will still aspire to buy in these suburbs," he said. "I believe many residents will decide to stay put and rebuild their lives. If people do decide to up and sell they will be in the minority."

Immediately after the 1974 flood many cashed-up investors bought distressed stock, renovated and sold for massive profits after construction of the dam began, Mr Matusik said.

"It does involve risk, but [a risky] investment often means high rewards," he said.

Bargain buying

Mr Matusik said dwellings partially flooded last week, which were put on the market at a 15 to 20 per cent discount from 2010 prices, made for a wise buy.

"For fully flooded homes, discounts over 30 per cent would be worth looking at. This assumes that improvements are actually made, via physical barriers and improvement management systems to help alleviate future flooding."

Mr Molloy warned the financial sector's value of flood-damaged properties was yet to be determined.

However, Mr Matusik said he suspected interest rates would fall by 25 basis points in the coming months, "correcting the unnecessary hike last November".

Rental woes

The rental outlook for tenants and recently displaced flood victims is bleak. Up to 10,000 flood-damaged households are estimated to be looking for temporary accommodation. This combined with the annual influx of university students hunting for rental accommodation will surely push up rents.

"Those investors without landlord insurance might elect to sell their properties, which presents an opportunity for those willing to take a risk.

"A mass investor sell-off, however, could have a marked negative impact on values across the city, making [predicted rent rises] of five to eight per cent very bullish."

Sales to sink

The volume of sales is expected to decline, contrary to last year's predictions.

"The overly negative commentary about the flood's impact on property across the region is likely to batter confidence, which in turn could see inquiry and sales decline further," Mr Matusik said.

Yet Mr Molloy said buyers on the ground were expected to be forgiving.

"The outpouring of community spirit has restored a social confidence in our suburbs. People will remember that for many, many years to come," he said.

Yungaba and The Milton - Flood Issues

Yungaba is an off-the-plan development at Kangaroo Point current being built and marketed by Australand. The Australand Property Group informed the market yesterday that Yungaba would be delayed because of the floods. "That has obviously hampered progress on the project and the full impact is yet to be determined. First settlements are now expected in the first half of 2012 instead of the forecast second half of 2011".

I wonder what people will think of this project now -- I suspect sales may be a little slow for a while.

FKP said it suffered damage to its sales suite at Milton for its overpriced off-the-plan development "The Milton".

Analysts said Mirvac Group faced the risk of a slower sales rate because of the floods.

See also article in The Australian

Tennyson Reach Flooded

Extracts from Story from The Australian:

"Yesterday, as the smell in the luxury dwellings at Tennyson Reach, home to tennis greats including Ashley Cooper, rose with the temperature and humidity, owners wondered how the planning controls that were meant to regulate development could have gone so wrong.

Several said they were assured before buying that the ground level would not flood unless the Brisbane River reached a mark of 8.4m, well above the 4.46m at which it peaked last Thursday after a massive discharge of 645,000 megalitres from Wivenhoe Dam on Tuesday.

Between cleaning up and moving out yesterday, several owners said they needed explanations from Mirvac and the council about their true flood immunity and whether the development, completed less than two years ago, should have been approved, given its history of inundation.

The flooding at Tennyson Reach is one small part of a major problem for Brisbane City Council and the Queensland government, as the losses of owners, the liability of developers, and the policies of governments combine in a perfect storm of recrimination and confusion. The residential precinct went through all the council's usual approvals process after the Beattie government sought tenders to make something glorious from the site of the abandoned and obsolete power station.

Apartment owner Chrissie Buchanan, who bought in June 2009 with her husband, Sam, who is a quadriplegic, has had damaged floors, walls and cabinets. She said she was fortunate to have insurance and was in a lot better position than many in Brisbane.

"The things that have been damaged are easily replaced," Ms Buchanan said. "There are people who have lost their businesses and houses. I feel for people who are a lot worse off than ourselves."

She said flooding risk was "not an issue" that was canvassed when she and her husband bought the property. "You never believe it's going to happen to you," she said.

Keith George, who paid $2.25 million for his ground-floor apartment 18 months ago, said he had waist-level water throughout his property. As a result, he will have to rip up floors and carpets, rebuild walls, and most of the apartment's cabinets will have to be replaced. "I'm going to have to spend at least $100,000 to replace the cabinetry," he said. "We won't be back in here for months."

Mr George said the flood risk never came up when he was buying the property, partly because City Hall had approved the development.

"And I always believed the Wivenhoe would not let the Brisbane River come up," he said.

Another resident, Julie Savage, said most people living in the complex were not too concerned on Tuesday night when other parts of the city started to evacuate their homes.

"I got the impression everyone was relaxed because it could withstand a flood of 8.4m, so it would all be fine," she said.

It is not only residents on the ground floor who are affected, with those on the many levels above unable to return home because there is no power and no lifts working. "They were saying 12 weeks until they can return, but it might be eight," Mr George said.

...

Mirvac Development Queensland chief executive Matthew Wallace, who inspected the development yesterday, said the priority was to work with the body corporate to get the buildings reinstated, and "get peoples' lives and properties back together".

The flooding hit the apartments 12 hours before the peak in Brisbane of 4.46m. It is believed the body corporate does not have flood insurance.

Several owners who bought their apartments before the global financial crisis had looked for loopholes to litigate a way out of their contracts before settlement, but failed after filing actions in the District Court. The irony is that being misled over the level of their flood immunity might have provided a perfect exit.

After successfully defending itself against some residents' claims that it misrepresented the quality of the river views, as well as a host of technical legal arguments surrounding the contract documents, Mirvac said the original buyers had to meet, in some cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars in default interest and associated costs."

Mirvac Group said its Waterfront Newstead development had experienced some basement flooding, while its Tennyson Reach building had basement and ground floor inundation.

Mirvac added that the Brisbane floods were having a limited impact on its residential projects.

Do I Have To Pay Rent If I was Flooded?

I have been asked this question a lot. Do I have to pay rent if the property I lived in has flooded? The most common situation for apartments is that the basement has flooded, but that the apartment itself is ok. The tenant may have evacuated for a week, and there may be a loss of power.

Usually, the tenant can claim against the body corporate and its insurance for the tenant's loss in these circumstances.

The lease does not automatically end. If the lease remains on foot, then in these circumstances, the tenant must still pay the rent, but may try to negotiate a decrease in the rent for the effected period.

If the apartment is non-liveable, then the tenant may end the lease, move out and stop paying rent. If an apartment is without power for a limited period or without a carpark for a limited period, then the apartment is not non-liveable. The RTA says: "Where tenants have been ordered to evacuate their rental property, such as by emergency services, it may or may not be due to non-liveability as the premises may or may not be damaged and the tenant may be able to return to the property after evacuation. This will need to be discussed between the tenant and their lessor/agent. In such circumstances the parties may be best negotiating possible rent reductions, rather than ending the tenancy."

See RTA website.

There is compensation for tenants in these circumstances, of $1,000 per adult effected. See Centrelink.